Pythagorean Win/Loss, Luck, and Why the Rays Will Lose the Division

Like most baseball fans this year, I’m captivated by the surge of the Tampa Bay Rays. How can you not be? Coming into this season their highest win total in history was 70 games. They’ve already surpassed that and we haven’t even finished August yet! It’s become pretty evident that Joe Madden’s young team filled with quality starting pitching and exceptional young bats is here to stay.

But will they win the division? Will they make the playoffs? No and yes respectively, and here’s why.

As of this writing (August 20), the Rays are 77-48, 4.5 games ahead of the Red Sox, and appear to be cruising to a division title with a little less than a quarter of the season remaining. Both have comparable remaining schedules - each team’s remaining opponents have the exact same average record of 66-58. So what would lead one to conclude that the Rays are going to choke lose the division lead? A little known statistic to casual baseball fans called Pythagorean Win/Loss.

Coined by Bill James, Pythagorean Win/Loss (also pythW-L) is an estimate of what a teams win/loss record should be based upon the runs they’ve scored and the runs they’ve given up. If a team has a better win/loss record than their pythW-L, they’ve likely been getting “lucky” and are likely to become “less lucky” for the remainder of the season in order for both records to match up accordingly. At the end of a season, Pythagorean Win/Loss is surprisingly accurate (usually within a few games) so in most instances a team winning more games than their pythW-L is likely to incur a losing streak to regress them back to the mean.

Unfortunately the Rays seem to be one of those “lucky” teams. Their pythW-L is 70-55, 7 games worse than their true record (this is often referred to as a luck of +7). The Red Sox, on the other hand, have a pythW-L of 75-51, 2 games better than their record of 73-53 (luck of -2). That 9 game swing would flip the Rays 4.5 game lead around to the Sox, putting them firmly in control. Couple that with untimely injuries to Carl Crawford, Troy Percival, and Evan Longoria, and it seems likely that the Rays magical season could end without a division crown.

The good news? Their pythW-L still puts them 3 games ahead of the Twins for the wild card, so there’s a good chance we’ll see the Rays in the playoffs regardless. And so what may appear to be a collapse in the eyes of many will simply be two very good teams playing exactly as they should be.

Of course, the pythW-L isn’t a perfect predictor of the future and has definitely been wrong from time to time, even over the course of a full 162 game schedule. For instance, last years Diamondbacks finished a whopping 11 games better than their pythW-L. The 2006 Indians were a -12 in the luck category, finishing with a record of 78-84 despite a pythW-L of 90-72. Talk about bad luck!

One thing IS for sure: numbers and predictions are fun, but they’re no replacement for real thing. This stretch run in the AL East should be fun to watch!

 

About the Author

Adam McFarland is the founder and co-owner of TastefullyDriven.com - a contemporary e-commerce site that sells premium home gym equipment, shaving & personal care products, home care products, nutritional supplements, and other products to help improve your everyday life. He also writes for the Tastefully Driven Lifestyle Blog, a blog that covers sports, politics, technology, health & fitness, personal improvement, and more.

11 Baseball Legends Who Were Legendary Assholes

A few bat worthy stories have made themselves present on Digg.com lately involving the true ‘ole timers of America’s favorite pastime.  On Friday, August 18th, 2008 a story hit the popular charts with the title “11 Baseball Legends Who Were Legendary Assholes”, written by Chris Morgan of Cracked.com.

The article breaks down each quote-un-quote Legendary Asshole including a summary of each player-who, how, and when they acted like an ass. Suprisingly, Ty Cobb is number 1 on the list with Barry Bonds floating with cup on too tight in second. RBI Magazine gives this article an A+ in research and the information presented in this fantastic blog post. Check out Cracked.com’s Article….

Now if only RBI Magazine could get them to write a few articles for us…heh!

Is The MLB Ready For Another Scandal?

In the past few years, there has been numerous scandals involving almost every professional sport, some worse than others, others worse than some.  Athletes like Michael Vick, Roger Clemens, and Tim Donaghy do not need their stories retold as the dark cloud above their heads called “the media” hasn’t left any details unsung.

Steroids in baseball, referees betting on games they officiate, and killing dogs were suppose to take the cake right? I thought so, until I came across a few baseball news sites early this morning, that paint the picture of the MLB trying to hang themselves.  Reports are now beginning to surface about another possible scandal in Major League Baseball that has potentially equal or more “fire power” than the steroid scuttlebutt. However in this case, it seems as though Major League Baseball is the one being scammed.

 According to the Bleacher Report, it was reported in March that White Sox Director of Scouting, David Wilder, was caught by United States Customs attempting to smuggle $40,000 cash into Miami. Since then, Wilder has been cooperating with FBI and MLB officials and has been fired by the White Sox.

Why the smuggling? Fortunately for investigators, Wilder has sung like a canary. Apparently, many scouts have been scouting players in Latin America and other surrounding territories. If the scouts see an ounce of star potential in a player’s performance, the player is bribed with huge dollar salaries and signed with inflated bonuses. I’m not sure what the best part is; the fact that the players suck or the fact that the scouts then force the players to give them a cut of their own offer. Now that’s hot stuff!

The Bleacher Report is not the only source of information on this shocking story. Wait! Was that really shocking? According to Market Place Public Radio, last week, the top Dominican scout for the Boston Red Sox was fired over accusations involved in the skinny dipping of bonuses. Tough one buddy! You won’t have to ask Arizona catcher Chris Snyder about what it feels like to shatter a nut! ESPN has reported that as many as 20 people could be implicated in this scandal involving more than a dozen ball clubs.

Controversy is also surrounding the fate of Yankees Prospect OF Kelvin DeLeon. Kelv “the man” is only 17-years old and from the Dominican Republic. He signed a deal in July of ‘07 for 1.1 million total watermelons. The problem is-the salary and bonus contracted does not match his talent or ability. SCAM!

Scouts are reportedly up to no good. I stress the word “reportedly” because in America you are innocent until proven guilty. For all we know the media could have it backwards, sideways, upside-down or out when its suppose to be in. However, if these reports are correct, the MLB is going to take another shot to its image, and have a few more problems other than steroids.

Steroid Suspensions Begin In Minors At Record Shattering Clip

 According to Biz Of Baseball.com and MLB.com, Minor League players are being suspended for using Performance Enhancing Drugs at a record shattering clip. On August 1st, 2008, Major League Baseball suspended two Minor League players for using performance enhancing drugs and again On August 2nd, 2008, during  afternoon hours, the MLB decided to suspend Florida Marlins Minor League pitcher Daniel Gil.  

The players suspended on Friday included Cincinnati Reds minor league pitcher Renny Amador and Arizona Diamondbacks minor league shortstop Bernardino Jimenez. Both players have been suspended for 50 games after they tested positive for steroids.

Amador tested positive for metabolites of Stanozolol, a synthetic anabolic steroid derived from testosterone, that has been approved by the FDA for human medical treatment.  Jimenez tested positive for Boldenone, an anabolic steroid developed for veterinary use, mostly used in the treatment of horses. Jimenez has proven himself dumber than a horse!

Florida Marlins minor league pitcher Daniel Gil has also recieved a 50-game suspension for also testing positive for Boldenone. All suspensions have been ordered effective immediately.

Since the All-Star break 12 players have been caught with 4 different types of substances.  You would think players would get the picture by now!

MLB May Soon Allow Players in Future Olympics

When you think of the Olympic Games very few people associated Olympic competitions with baseball. Maybe it has to do with regulations by the MLB not allowing their players to participate in one of the ultimate sports experiences in the history of man-kind. Foreign players and players who are not associated with the MLB are responsible for keeping the game of baseball in session during the summers that host the events.

The reason Major League Baseball does not allow players to participate is because of the games taking place just about mid-season during the All-Star break. So the options now lie on the table. Take a longer All-Star break with the addition of a few extra days, or scratch the idea of seeing the Major League players we all love or love to hate and baseball all together from the Olympic agenda.

Already, the International Olympic Committee has dropped baseball and softball from the 2012 Summer Games in London, and the sports would have to be voted back into a future Olympics.

This focus on baseball in the Olympics is now gaining more attention than ever, since it has been excluded in 2012. Many are blaming the MLB for ruining a world tradition.

Major League Baseball, the IBAF (International Baseball Federation) and the IOC are working diligently to have a system where our big leaguers are playing,” said MLB vice-president and Team USA general manager Bob Watson during the naming of the Beijing squad on Wednesday. “I think if Chicago or Tokyo would win Olympics for 2016, those countries are baseball countries, and they have venues.

“I believe they are trying to work up something, you have a few years to get a plan. There are a lot of moving parts but don’t rule it out.

Now that baseball and softball has been dropped from the Olympic Games the MLB is trying to avoid taking the heat for the games removal. Right?

The Lowest Batting Averages in 2008!

Sometimes players fall into slumps, deep mummy-like slumps. Batting Averages fall and it is only a matter of time before their demise at the plate results in an assignment to the minors or bench time. After 200 at bats in 2008, the following players have the worst batting averages in Major League Baseball according to Baseball-Reference.com.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In respect to the lowest batting averages, the trend goes hand-in-hand for players with the lowest On Base Percentages (OPB) listed below;

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After being paid almost $9.9 million over the last 3 years Corey Patterson seems to be having one of the worst years in his 10-year career, even though his (season) career high batting average tops out at .298 in 2003. Is he currently the worst full-time players in the Majors? RBI Magazine says “Give the guy a break”.

Pirates second baseman Freddy Sanchez has had more problems than just his batting average. On July 27th, 2008, Sanchez left the game against the Padres with lower back problems that have been dogging him all season.

Despite Gary Sheffield’s batting average, his performance at the plate has not looked as terrible as his numbers. Sheffield has executed in the clutch for the Tigers when he has been called upon despite having major shoulder surgery less than 9 months ago.

As for the rest of those pegged in this statistical study, not many excuses can compensate for their poor performance at the plate. Maybe it is time to do what Lance Armstrong would do. Take your ball and go home!