Wondering why your team is not making a mad last ditch run to shore up a needed position on your team via free agency? Well, the economy is the overwhelming issue at hand, but that is not the only reason.
First we’ll examine the overall economic factors. Just look at the current free agent class, (most) teams are just not as willing to shell out big money and especially not big contracts for fear of how the economy will affect their market. The fact that Manny has not yet signed is a big testament to that, as well as the many free agents like Derek Lowe, Francisco Rodriquez (K-Rod), or Pat Burrell who all had to sign well below what they might have before the recession.
But the REAL reason, for the time being, is arbitration. Most teams have many arbitration hearings, or contracts, to work out as we approach spring training. This means that as team budgets shrink the potential money that will have to be paid via arbitration hearings or contracts will have a greater impact. Sure, typically 20 million dollars in payroll at this time of year wouldn’t be as big a deal. But with the economic uncertainty that teams are facing in their respective markets the money that teams might have to pay out in the coming weeks has become a bigger issue.
No one is really saying this of course, teams want to downplay the economy at some times and rightfully so. But I guarantee you that teams are waiting to find out what budget they will have left to work with before they start to go after big free agents before spring training. It makes sense, I mean let’s all find out what we will owe our current employees before we go out and hire any new ones.
Most teams have many arbitration hearings to go through. Shoring up young talented players like Andre Ethier, Russel Martin, or Cole Hamels is definitely a priority for teams. Especially since most teams are getting a great deal for these players. And most teams have more arbitration eligible players than not. Now I understand that not all arbitration eligible players make it to an arbitration hearing. Clubs try to do all that they can to avoid this and you can see this by a flurry of smaller contracts being worked out right now in order to avoid arbitration.
After all of these contracts get worked out you will start to see teams get more aggressive with their signings, albeit at the 11th hour. I’ll bet that we see a Manny deal after the Dodgers have finished dealing with all of their arbitration eligible players that they have left. And after Manny goes, so will Dunn, Abreu, and others. The same will go for pitching; clubs will make stronger offers to pitchers like Oliver Perez, Ben Sheets, Randy Wolf, and Jon Garland after they finish hammering out salaries for their existing staff.
I’m not sure why this is being treated like such a white elephant and I am also not aware of anyone else that has pointed this out. It seems pretty clear that clubs are holding back on contracts for good reasons. Other than the overall economic situations, which are all relevant to each team’s specific market, currently it is the uncertainty over what clubs will have to pay via arbitration or new contracts for arbitration eligible players.
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