Last year’s Mariners were without a doubt, dollar for dollar, the worst team in the Major Leagues. Ex-General Manager Bill Bavasi’s tenure will no doubt be remembered as some of the worst general managing of all time, marked by the terrible contracts handed to Richie Sexson, Jarrod Washburn, and Carlos Silva, the awful trades he made, and just all around failure. Many “experts” expected the Mariners to compete in 2008. Well, that is exactly the opposite of what happened, and basically everyone who hand the slightest hand in putting that team together was ultimately was fired.
The 2009 Mariners Slogan “A New Day, A New Would” could not be more accurate. New General Manager Jack Zduriencik and assistants Tony Blengino and Tom McNamara have taken an entirely different approach to building this roster. They hired baseball stat expert Tom Tango to help with a Sabermetrics department, which was basically enough to show me that these guys might know what they are doing. In an offseason with a pretty bad free agent class, having their hands tied by the upper management with regards to money, and a huge sum of payroll tied up in bad deals by given out by the former regime, the new group did a decent job amassing a solid amount of talent for relatively no cost. Will this team compete? That’s an extreme longshot. Will this year be a great step forward for an organization that took massive steps backwards under the former management? That is all but certain.
Key additions:
Ken Griffey Jr. (DH/OF), Franklin Gutierrez (OF), Endy Chavez (OF), Russell Branyan (1B), Mike Carp (1B), Chris Shelton (1B), Ronny Cedeno (IF), Garrett Olson (SP/RP), Tyler Walker (RP), David Aardsma (RP), and a whole bunch of live bullpen arms via waivers, the Rule 5, and minor transactions.
Key Subtractions:
Raul Ibanez (OF), Jeremy Reed (OF), Willie Bloomquist (UT), Miguel Cairo (UT), J.J. Putz (RP), Sean Green (RP), R.A. Dickey (SP/RP), Jake Woods (RP), Eric O’Flaherty (RP), Jared Wells (RP)
A look at the lineup:
The Mariners’ offseason consisted of quite the purge, and a lot of changes and experimentation will definitely take place in 2009. Additions Franklin Gutierrez, Endy Chavez, and Ken Griffey Jr. will likely see a good amount of playing time, and prospects Wladimir Balentein and Jeff Clement should get a long look to see where they both stand after awful 2008 campaigns. Ichiro and Beltre’s positions are safe, but after that, every position could realistically be up for grabs in 2009, making this season pretty intriguing regardless of the team’s record.
Catcher: While the regular catcher should be Jeff Clement, a terrible contract handed out to Kenji Johjima will probably keep Clement on the bench or in Tacoma more often than not. Johjima had a horrendous 2008 (.227/.277/.332), and should rebound to produce decent numbers from the 2-spot. This is not, however, justification to keep Clement out of the starting spot. Clement struggled in his time in the majors, but with regular playing time in AAA Tacoma he was able to destroy the ball to a tune of .335/.455/.676 with 14 homers in just 173 AB. On a more competitive team, keeping Johjima behind the plate more often might make sense, as he will probably be more consistent and better defensively. But he should have been allowed to do that for another team, instead of blocking Clement. Now aging, with a huge contract, coming off a terrible year, there is almost no chance Johjima can be moved in a trade without serious money or talent going with him.
First Base:
Russell Branyan is penciled in as the starter at this point, but a suitable platoon partner would be nice. If Chris Shelton can show that he can still hit the ball and play decent defense to warrant giving him a 40-man roster spot, he could end up being that partner. The Mariners do have a couple of players on the 40-man that are expendable, and this may become a reality. Branyan is a true power source (12 homers in 132 AB) and should enjoy hitting in the left-hand-favoring Safeco Field. The problem, however, is the complete inability to hit lefthanders (.204/.284/.446. in his career). Shelton fairs decently against lefties for his career (.283/.346/.492) and the two could provide a surprise above average first baseman if used correctly.
Second Base:
Jose Lopez has never lived up to the billing he received when signed by Seattle in 2000. Some view this as Lopez being a failed prospect, but honestly that isn’t really true. He’s been an above average second baseman since he got to the Bigs, and while somewhat inconsistent throughout the year, puts up pretty good numbers when it comes down to it (.271/.303/.398 career). Even though advanced defensive metrics rate him as slightly above average, most scouts agree he is much more of a defensive liability than it seems. Rumors swirling this spring include that Lopez has put on some extra pounds in order to hit for more power and some fear this will cause his already slow first step to get even slower. Should Adrian Beltre be moved this season, logic says Lopez slides over to 3B and sticks there. Ronny Cedeno was brought in as a backup, and will most definitely put pressure on both Lopez and shortstop Yunieksy Betancourt.
Third Base:
Perhaps the most underrated, underappreciated player in all of baseball, Adrian Beltre will continue to play hard and play extremely well day in and day out for the Mariners. His contract is pretty much the only good one Bavasi gave in his tenure and Beltre is vastly underpaid by today’s market standards. He easily has one of, if not the best, third base glove in baseball. All of the advanced defensive metrics, as well as, scouting reports back it up. He’s not going to hit 48 homers like he did in 2003, but he’s still incredibly skilled with the bat. Last year’s .266 batting average was definitely a fluke and could have easily been closer to .300 had his below average .279 BABIP not deflated it. Expect another great season out of Beltre, and probably expect him to get shipped off for a nice package of prospects to a team in need at the deadline. Beltre is one Mariner of the Bavasi Era that I will truly miss when he’s gone.
Short Stop:
Yuniesky Betancourt was practically handed the role of Seattle Mariners shortstop when he stepped off the boat from Cuba—and he probably deserved it. He was a below average hitter, but could hack it for the position, and was a superb defender. He was highly regarded as the best defensive player in baseball for a year or so. Then something changed, Yuni got bigger, and perhaps lazier, and became one of the worst defensive players in the league. He won’t hit much, so his value relies on his ability to pick it, and that has all but gone over the last two years. Ronny Cedeno may end up being the Mariners everyday shortstop if this trend continues in 2009. That would result in Betancourt being shipped off to a team who thinks he can still field or just delegated to the bench as a pinch runner.
Left Field:
Probably the most interesting story of the Mariners offseason was: how do we fill the void that Raul Ibanez left? Well the Mariners’ front office showed that they “get it” when they claimed Ibanez wasn’t all that valuable, due to his defensive inadequacies, and were able to get defensive extraordinaire Endy Chavez as a player thrown into the JJ Putz trade. They also appear to have given up on Wladimir Balentein, who showed major holes at the plate all year long in 2008. Endy was penciled in as the starter in left field, but now with the signing of Ken Griffey Jr., things get a little more complicated. Griffey Jr. should be this team’s designated hitter. However, baseball politics, notoriety, and old-school concepts may keep Endy on the bench as a reserve. It’s true, Chavez’s bat is awful, but looking at what he brings defensively, he’s probably going to be a more valuable left fielder than Griffey. Griffey is one of the worst defensive players in baseball over the last few years, and at 39, I doubt coming back to Seattle will rejuvenate him that much. It seems like the plan is to play Griffey out there until they can’t anymore, and then give Chavez the spot. There is still a large contingent of people who don’t understand defensive value and think Griffey should be in the field on a daily basis. These people are wrong.
Center Field:
The biggest name for the Mariners brought through the JJ Putz trade is definitely Franklin Gutierrez. Even though he struggled with the bat in his first full season in the Bigs (.248/.307 /.383), Gutierrez is a defensive wizard with an amazing arm. Gutierrez is only 25 and has a lot of time to improve his bat work, and could end up becoming a plus bat and a real steal for the Mariners in that trade. Zduriencik decided to go with quantity over quality in the Putz trade, probably a smart move for a team that needs a complete overhaul, and he still ended up getting a nice catch in Gutierrez.
Right Field:
Ichiro. Read what you will, believe what you want, all the papers in Seattle seem to think Ichiro is the real reason this team collapsed. From Carlos Silva, to JJ Putz, and even a little poke from Adrian Beltre, Ichiro has been labeled selfish, and not a “team guy”. But, when it comes down to it, he has been one of the top 5 most valuable outfielders in the major leagues since 2005. He may not dive for the ball, steal every time he’s on base, or hit homers, but what he does is help win games, and that’s what he’s being paid to do. I am 100% for Ichiro in whatever he does, and I truly believe, had he done the same exact thing on a winning team, he’d be considered a team leader, unselfish, and a guy who would do anything to win. Superstars get blamed when their team loses, that’s just how it goes, and Ichiro is truly a superstar.
Designated Hitter:
This spot could be up for grabs depending on how the “Griffey in left field” situation shakes itself out. Best case scenario would be that Griffey shares time here with Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentein, while Clement also catches and Balentein is used as a reserve. If Griffey plays the field, the spot is open to both of the youngsters, and we’ll probably see more of Clement at DH than behind the plate. Any way you look at it, this position has the potential to be a real revolving door situation, and a good chance to showcase the Griffey/Mariners Reunion Tour or get a look at what the two youngsters really bring to the plate.
A look at the pitching:
The Mariners starters will look very similar to 2008, with the only difference being Brandon Morrow taking Miguel Batista’s spot in the rotation. Should the top three (Hernandez, Bedard, and Morrow) stay healthy and pitch up to their potential; this could be a very dangerous staff. The two incredibly overpaid and incredibly average four and five guys, Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva, will actually be a suitable back end of a rotation regardless of how expensive they are. This staff could actually end up being quite the strength for the 2009 Mariners, and with a more defensive minded approach this season, could really be a surprise that allows this M’s team to compete.
Starters:
Felix may have taken a slight step back last year as far as peripherals go. His swinging strike rate went down, as did his ground ball rate, and he walked more batters than ever before. This alarms some, but keep in mind Felix is only going to turn 23 in April. That’s younger than each of the following: Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Chad Billingsly, David Price, Edinson Volquez, Joba Chamberlain, Fransisco Liriano… well you get the idea. He’s already got more innings and more stirkeouts under his belt than all of those names as well. Felix has some of the best stuff on the planet; he can throw the ball in the mid to high 90s with authority, and backs it up with a superb curveball and perhaps an even better changeup. The Mariners preached fastball first to the youngster for the last couple years, and much work has been done at blogs USSMariner.com and LookoutLanding.com to show how this was really dumb. If Felix mixes his pitches, he is truly one of the most talented hurlers on the planet and should be for a long time. Hopefully that long time is spent in Mariners’ blue and teal.
If Eric Bedard stays healthy, he’s probably a top 10 pitcher in the majors… but, that’s a big “if”. Missing a load of starts last season, and recovering from shoulder surgery this offseason, Bedard’s status is a giant question mark. If he can stay healthy through the whole year, he should be one of the more valuable pitchers in baseball, and will probably be traded in a deal much like Rich Harden’s trade from last season.
Brandon Morrow’s development as a starter is one of the most important stories for the 2009 Mariners. He’s already shown that he can be an incredibly effective reliever, but more value would come from him taking his skill set to a starting role. He’s armed with one of the best fastballs in baseball, which tops at 100 and is usually in the 97-99 range. Morrow’s two keys this year will be developing his curve and changeup and keeping the ball in the zone consistently. If he can do that, he could be a very great pitcher for this ballclub.
Silva and Washburn are decent options for the four and five slots, but the problem is that they are being paid as if they are aces. Washburn is a candidate to be moved during the season if he pitches well, and should have been moved last year. There is not a single team that would take on Silva’s full salary, and he will likely (and unfortunately) be a Mariner until the end of his contract. Both should hover around league average or slightly below for the season, and both will be smiling on their way to the bank.
Ryan Rowland-Smith may also get a shot to crack the rotation, and in his brief stint in that role last year, answered the call very well and did exactly what was expected of him. If the team can move Washburn early, Bedard gets hurt, Silva has one too many hamburgers and misses a start due to acid indigestion, Rowland-Smith is the Mariners next and best option. I’m hoping to see as much of RRS in the rotation as possible.
Other options for the rotation include Garrett Olson and Ryan Feierabend. Olson might need a little more time in the minors or the bullpen, and Feierabend may have to get surgery that will put an early end to his 2009 season.
Bullpen:
GM Jack Zduriencik should lecture for the class “How to Build a Cheap Effective Bullpen 101”. By searching the league for guys with great stuff, spotty command, or injury problems with the ability to pass them up and down on the Tacoma Shuttle easily, he has given new Manager Don Wakamatsu a ton of options to use in the later innings. After the Putz deal, there was a lot of talk about the weakness and uncertainty of the bullpen, however, I don’t really believe that will be the case. Former closer Tyler Walker and flamethrower David Aardsma will probably battle Mark Lowe and Miguel Batista for the closer spot. The bullpen is young and can throw hard, but is slightly inconsistent. The Rays showed us that this can work wonders last year, and other teams have done it in the past. He’s also given Wakamatsu a number of talented lefties who all could end up being decent LOOGY’s for this team. That role is probably Cesar Jiminez’s spot to lose, but he will be threatened by Jose Lugo, Jason Vargas, and Justin Thomas. I give kudos to Zduriencik for not wasting any money on his relief corps and instead building a staff with a lot of unrecognizable names that could still manage to be an extremely solid group.
Outlook:
The 2009 Mariners should have one thing in mind: Progression. This organization isn’t going to wake up and be good overnight. By amassing talent for a couple years through trades, free agency, and the draft and spending “smart” money, this team could easily become “Boston of the West Coast”. If the trend and concepts of the current leadership of the team stick, and Presidents Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong stay away from the baseball side of operations, this organization could be built back up to be a winner for a long time.
Prediction:
As for 2009, I can’t see the Mariners winning more than 80 games (77-85), but this year is just part of the picture for this organization. Here’s to a successful 2009, and here’s to “A New Day, A New Way” in Seattle.
What about Mike Sweeney? He seems to be relatively healthy, and the fact the Mariners sent LaHair and Carp down would indicate he’s still in the mix for a spot on the roster.
For all the talk about the leadership Griffey will supposedly bring to the locker room, Sweeney is the real deal: A genuine leader who can mentor younger players while giving Seattle a decent bat off the bench…If he’s healthy. I’m not as quick as you seem to be in completely disregarding him.
It’ll be a tough pick between Sweeney and Shelton as the backup 1B, but if the Mariners are serious about turning around the losing culture that has developed in Seattle, they keep Sweeney around in some capacity. He’s one of those “character guys” Pat Gillick was good at finding (Mark McLemore, Stan Javier, Joe Oliver, Pat Borders) when he was GM in Seattle, and players like that can help a team even if they hardly ever set foot on the field during a game.
Hey Bruce, thanks for the comment.
Definitely agree with your assessment of Sweeney, and it certainly looks like he’s going to be the one to make the team out of Peoria, with Shelton being sent to Tacoma as an insurance policy on both he and Griffey.
While I’m not huge believer in how much “team chemistry” truly helps a team (over 162 games, I’d say it makes a marginal difference compared to true talent), Sweeney definitely would be a nice help for this rebuilding and reloading team. Shelton is projected to hit better, and has smoked the ball in spring (especially when I was putting this article together) and I was unsure on the team’s true opinion of Sweeney. Obviously, their talent levels are pretty similar, with Shelton having much more upside (he did have that amazing month in Detroit, and has always had decent power). Sweeney’s at the end of his career, probably in his last year, and can probably post respectable numbers coming off the bench. I wouldn’t expect too much power, but the contact rates should still be there, making him an interesting pinch hitter. Where the team sees Sweeney’s value is as a leadership role, which is fair. While I don’t think it will make much of a difference at all to the team’s record, I could say the same about the difference in talent level between he and Shelton.
All in all, both players are interesting enough to keep around, but too similar to actually do it. With Shelton being able to be sent to Tacoma, he looks like he’ll be the odd man out, and the team won’t read too much into his hot spring, and go with the decision they probably made before camp began. Sweeney’s done exactly what the organization wanted, and they’ve said that for a couple weeks now.
So yeah, your definitely correct with your assessment, but at the time I wrote the article (very early in the spring), it looked like Sweeney was going to be around for camp and not much more.
Also, two big decisions were made about this team yesterday that really hurt the Mariners future, and this year.
Jeff Clement was sent back to AAA, where most believe he doesn’t have much to show. This may be the team giving in to the fact that Clement may never be a MLB catcher, and want him to work out at first base. It also blocks prospect Adam Moore in Tacoma.
Second, Brandon Morrow has decided he’s going to stay in the bullpen for his career. While yes, he’ll be an amazing closer, he’d have much more value as a good starting pitcher. This also makes the Josh Fields signing pretty redundant. Morrow cites his diabetes and arm as the reasons, and if true, I’m not faulting the kid at all. It’s a tough pill to swallow, but if it mean’s he will be healthy for his entire career, rather than oft injured as a starter, it’s the right move.
However, this move makes the Mariners pitching staff very very thin. Ryan Rowland-Smith will probably break camp being the 5th starter now, and Garrett Olson or Miguel Batista (ugh) will follow behind him as the reserve. This move is probably worth 2-4 wins to the Mariners over the course of the season, which moves them from possible contender to third place finish. They were a 79-84 win team with Morrow healthy and in the rotation, and that’s now looking more like 75-79 now.
All in all, blame both of these decisions on the Bavasi regime, if Johjima was not handed the ludicrous contract, Clement would be starting. If Morrow was developed as a starter from the beginning, he would not care about closing, and probably would have felt much more comfortable in the rotation. Tough day for the Mariners, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a trade for some pitching depth before the team breaks camp.
Also, Chris Burke was picked up from San Diego. He used to be a bigtime prospect, but can’t hit worth a lick now. He’s Willie Bloomquist with a little less contact and a little more power and the same versatility. I immediately thought the same thing as Dave Cameron of USSMariner.com when I heard about the signing: this may be an insurance policy on short stop in case Betancourt is moved and Cedeno becomes the starter. Pretty meaningless move for now, but if it leads to bigger things, I wouldn’t be too surprised.