Clay’s Choice: Jorge Campillo

For the next few weeks, I’m going to try and bang out as many articles like this as I can. Basically, I’m just going to pick out a player (usually a pitcher) that I like and talk about their potential contributions to the 2009 season. As an avid fantasy baseball manager, most of these guys were players I developed a man crush on last year and are players I’m likely to target in drafts this season. That does not necessarily mean that all of my analysis will have to do with fantasy baseball, but it is certain to be at least part of the discussion.

Let me start by saying that I did not have Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Jorge Campillo on my list of names for this series. However, since Tom Glavine officially signed on to take over the Braves’ fifth rotation spot, I added Atlanta Braves relief pitcher Jorge Campillo to my list.

My reasoning here is that the Braves should’ve saved the potential $4.5 million they are going to give to Glavine and instead let Campillo bring up the tail end of the rotation. Although Glavine is a legend in Atlanta and likely to put more fans in the seats than Campillo, he is not what he used to be. The team was likely better standing pat (which would’ve meant not removing a player from the 25 man roster in favor of Glavine) or spending that money elsewhere—maybe on left-handed reliever Will Ohman or a corner outfielder, for example.

Meanwhile, the team has several other potential starting pitchers, including, of course, Campillo. Although he will be 30 years old on opening day, Campillo has pitched only one full season in the major leagues. That season was, in fact, the 2008 campaign in which he came out of nowhere to go 8-7 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.24 WHIP for the injury-plagued Braves rotation.

His career numbers do not seem to indicate that he is top of the rotation material like the role he was forced into a season ago, but he has proved during his time in the Mexican Pacific League, the Seattle Mariners organization, and now with Atlanta, that he can win ball games when called upon. His minor league numbers aren’t going to blow your socks off (13-9, 3.10 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 180 Ks, 264 IP), but so far, they have stayed consistent at the major league level.

Looking a little closer at his successful 2008 season, his 4.00 FIP and 4.15 tRA show that his 3.91 ERA was no fluke. The .291 BABIP and 71.6 LOB% show a hint of luck, but even if you adjust for that, you’re still talking about solid numbers. In terms of value, Campillo was worth $10.2 million and 2.3 wins last year. Comparatively, Glavine has not earned his contract since he was with the Mets in 2005 and was actually worth -0.4 wins and -$1.7 million in just over 63 innings last season.

Each of the popular projection systems seem to like Campillo more than Glavine in 2009 and, although those systems may be skewed by having just one full season of data on Campillo, it’s hard to make a case that he won’t outperform Glavine.

In terms of fantasy baseball, Campillo is pretty useless at this point in time. If he gets back his spot in the rotation, he will be just an average fantasy contributor, but one that will be reliable and consistent from game to game. He would help slightly in ERA and WHIP, but isn’t much help in the strikeout department. The Braves should be average (if not better) in 2009, so a record around the .500 mark would be likely.

In conclusion, don’t get me wrong here. I love Tom Glavine and all that he has done for the organization. However, over the last few years, this team has been struggling to win, while maintaining a strict budget. Spending $4.5 million on a 42 year old pitcher who is unlikely to outperform a cheaper, in-house option is not smart, especially when the name at the top of that in-house list is Jorge Campillo.

Sources: www.wikipedia.org, www.baseball-reference.com, www.fangraphs.com

Complete list of reports:
2/15/09: Kevin Slowey
2/17/09: Scott Lewis
2/20/09: Paul Maholm