For the next few weeks, I’m going to try and bang out as many articles like this as I can. Basically, I’m just going to pick out a player I like and talk about their potential contributions to the 2009 season. As an avid fantasy baseball manager, most of these guys were players I developed a man crush on last year and are players I’m likely to target in drafts this season. That does not necessarily mean that all of my analysis will have to do with fantasy baseball, but it is certain to be at least part of the discussion.
Up next on my list is left-handed pitcher Paul Maholm and, before you say anything, yes, I know that he pitches for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Despite the fact that any starting pitcher on the Pirates will have trouble earning himself a marker in the win column, Maholm does a lot of things well and is the team’s unquestionable ace.
Maholm, which, by the way, is pronounced “Mah-HALL-uhm”, will enter the 2009 season at the age of 26, which indicates that he should be about at his prime. The southpaw played college ball at Mississippi State before signing with the Pirates, who drafted him 8th overall in the 2005 major league baseball draft.
Generally, pitchers drafted early and right out of college fly through the minors. Maholm was no exception. His professional baseball career started at the low-A level in 2003, where he put up a 1.85 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 8 starts. In 34 innings of work, he struck out 32 and walked 10.
The following year, Maholm made one appearance for the Pirates’ rookie ball team, 3 starts for its Single-A squad, and 8 starts for its advanced-A team. Despite struggling to a 0-2 record with a 9.75 ERA and 2.25 WHIP at Single-A, Maholm was stellar in advanced-A, notching a 1.84 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 44 innings.
That success earned him the opportunity to show off his goods at the double-A level in the 2005 season. He did not disappoint, going 6-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in just under 82 innings. He was later promoted to Triple-A, where he went 1-1 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in just under 36 innings. That was more than enough for Pirates management, who finally gave Maholm his cup of tea on August 30, 2005. He made 6 starts in the late stages of 2005, going 3-1 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. His 3.84 FIP, 85.1 LOB% and .243 BABIP were extremely lucky in those 6 starts, but it was enough to earn Maholm a permanent job in the rotation.
Maholm would make 30 starts for the Pirates in 2006, which would give us a long first look at what Maholm could do at the major league level. He went 8-10 that year with a 4.76 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. Before you officially write off Maholm, note that his LOB% dropped to 73.4% and his BABIP was the highest of his career at .325. His 4.81 FIP actually justified the ERA, so Maholm headed into 2006 needing to show improvement.
He did just that. Maholm made 29 starts in his second full season, going 10-15 for the lowly Pirates. His ERA actually increased to 5.02 and his strikeout rate was down slightly, but he showed improvement in almost every other department. His walk rate dropped from 4.14 to 2.48, his WHIP dropped to 1.42, and his FIP dropped to 4.60.
All of that led up to the 2008 season, which would prove to be the year Maholm would put his name on the radar as a legit starting pitcher in the major leagues. While not putting up Cy Young statistics, Maholm was extremely solid and proved he was the real deal. He went 9-9 on a poor team and managed a career best 3.71 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. He pitched a career high 206.1 innings, striking out 139 and walking 63. His BABIP was back down to .289 and his LOB% was above his career average at 75.5%, but his 4.15 FIP proved that his improvement was legitimate.
In terms of value, Maholm increased his worth in each of his major league seasons. He was responsible for 1.4 wins in 2006, 1.7 wins in 2007, and 2.7 in 2008.
The popular projection systems don’t like Maholm quite as much in 2009, but his projected numbers rival what he put up last season. In terms of fantasy, it’s safe to say that Maholm should rival 10 wins in what should be another rough season for the Pirates. His strikeout rate should stay right around 6 per nine innings, his ERA is tough to estimate, but Marcel, Chone, and Bill James all have him in the 4.20-to-4.33 range. I expect his WHIP to be a little bit better than his career mark of 1.41.
Sources: www.wikipedia.org, www.baseball-reference.com, www.fangraphs.com
Complete list of reports:
2/15/09: Kevin Slowey
2/17/09: Scott Lewis
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