For the next few weeks, I’m going to try and bang out as many articles like this as I can. Basically, I’m just going to pick out a player I like and talk about their potential contributions to the 2009 season. As an avid fantasy baseball manager, most of these guys were players I developed a man crush on last year and are players I’m likely to target in drafts this season. That does not necessarily mean that all of my analysis will have to do with fantasy baseball, but it is certain to be at least part of the discussion.
Today I’m going to focus on a lesser known player named Scott Lewis—a starting pitcher for the Cleveland Indians. Lewis, who will enter the upcoming major league season at the age of 25, was originally drafted by the Angels back in 2001, but did not sign, choosing instead to attend the Ohio State University. In 2004, finally ready to pitch professionally, Lewis signed with the Indians, who drafted him the third round. The lefty heads into Spring Training as part of a long list of candidates for the Tribe’s fifth spot in the rotation.
Following his stint with the Buckeyes, Lewis spent over four years working his way through the Indians farm system before finally getting called up the big show last September. Lewis was more than impressive in his 4 major league starts, managing a perfect 4-0 record to go with a 2.63 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. The southpaw struck out 15 and walked 6 in 24 innings of work.
Although his early success at the major league level is grounds for some hype, his success at the minor league level is really what jumps out at me. In 80 minor league appearances, which included 76 starts, Lewis managed a 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He struck out 359 and walked 82 in just under 367 innings. His minor league numbers rival those of Kevin Slowey, who we discussed in this feature last time as being one of the game’s top young pitchers. Add to the equation that Lewis is a lefty and there is little question that he should be able to find a role at the major league level.
The main concerns with Lewis are his tendency to give up a lot of fly balls and his mid-to-high 80s fastball. That could spell trouble for Lewis in the tough American League. Furthermore, during his 4 major league starts, his BABIP was .233 and his LOB% was 83.3%. Both indicate that he was extremely lucky and neither of them are likely to repeat themselves in 2009.
Lewis also sports a solid changeup, slider, and curveball, so if he can hit his spots consistently, he certainly can have a successful major league career. To this point, it’s hard to doubt the man. He proved himself at the division-I collegiate level, was outstanding at every minor league level, and, most recently, put up excellent major league numbers in 4 starts. Lewis has a full resume of success. If he gets the opportunity to start in 2009, it will be up to him to prove he is the real deal.
In terms of fantasy baseball, Lewis remains a toss up at this point in time. If he wins that fifth rotation spot, he will be a solid sleeper. If not, he is useless and should be avoided in most leagues for the near future. What will you get from him if he earns a starting job? I expect the Indians to contend for the AL Central crown, so a healthy dose of wins should be in order. I don’t expect him to put up the dominant ERA and WHIP he did in his 4 starts last year, but if he isn’t terribly unlucky, I’d expect an average ERA and slightly better than average WHIP. As for strikeouts, he should be able to manage, on average, 4 or 5 in a 7 inning start, which is solid in that category.
Sources: www.baseball-reference.com, www.fangraphs.com
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