2009 Colorado Rockies Preview

In an effort to get every preview done by the season opener, you may notice that some of the team previews will be of the shorter variety. With some of the “extra information” not included, this should make for an easier read. Enjoy!

Key Additions: Huston Street, Greg Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, Jason Marquis

Key Subtractions: Matt Holliday, Luis Vizcaino, Brian Fuentes

A look at the lineup:

CA – Chris Iannetta is back at catcher and is expected to hit sixth. Yorvit Torrealba will be the backup.

1B – Todd Helton returns to first base and will hit third. Jeff Baker and Ian Stewart will see action as the reserves.

2B – Clint Barmes will begin the season as the team’s starting second baseman and will hit eighth. He will be pressed hard for time by Stewart and Baker.

SS – Troy Tulowitzki is back as the shortstop and will hit second. Barmes could also see work at shortstop and Omar Quintanilla should see some action as well.

3B – Garrett Atkins is back at third base and will be asked to contribute some pop from the cleanup spot in the order. Stewart is the backup.

LF – Seth Smith will get a majority of the work in left field and will likely hit seventh. Dexter Fowler will be the primary reserve.

CF – Ryan Spilborghs will be the centerfielder and is expected to lead off. Fowler and Scott Podsednik are the backups.

RF – Brad Hawpe is back in right field and will hit fifth. Fowler and Stewart add depth.

A look at the pitching:

Starters – Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Marquis, and Jorge De La Rosa will be the 1-through-4 options in the Rockies’ rotation. Franklin Morales is expected to be the fifth starter. Josh Fogg, Greg Reynolds, Greg Smith, and Glendon Rusch will also compete for starts.

Relievers – Colorado is one of the few teams with a very cloudy closer situation going into the season. Both Manuel Corpas and Huston Street are likely to get work in the ninth inning. Taylor Buchholz, Ryan Speier, and Jason Grilli will be the go-to middle relievers. Alan Embree, Matt Belisle, and Juan Morillo will duke it out for the rest of the innings.

Outlook:

The trade of Matt Holliday makes the lineup less impressive, but the Rockies do have a solid core of young hitters. That said, the rotation isn’t very good and there is only so much the talented Corpas/Street duo can do. The Rockies are going to have a tough time competing with the more talented teams in the NL West.

Prediction:

The Rockies will struggle to stay out of the basement in the NL West, but will manage to finish fourth with a 75-87 record.

2009 St. Louis Cardinals Preview

2008 Record: 86 -76
Key Additions: Khalil Greene
Key Subtractions: Jason Isringhausen, Cesar Izturis, Braden Looper, Felipe Lopez, Aaron Miles

A Look at the Line Up:
Last October, when all the dust had settled, the St. Louis Cardinals finished with a record of 86 – 76, chiefly due to the strength of their surprise offence.

The Cards got surprising production from Right Fielder Ryan Ludwick and newly acquired Third Basemen Troy Glaus who played a shocking 151 games at the hot corner, his second highest total since 2002.

The Cardinals managed to rack up the fourth most runs in the National League behind an attack lead by the heart of the order.

Albert Pujols has established himself as a MVP candidate year in and year out. He got some help last year when pitchers had to worry about the combined 91 home runs belted out by Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankeiland Troy Glaus. Throw in Pujols and his 37 dingers and those four men accounted for 73% of the Redbirds home runs last season.

Catcher:
Behind the plate, we have one of the many talented Molina brothers. Yadier is only going to be 26 in 2009, but finally looked like it was coming together for him as an everyday major leaguer in 2008.

He posted career highs in most offensive categories including hits, average, OBP, runs scored, RBI’s and Slugging. Although his strikeout and walk numbers remained similar to years past, he did see a career high in at bats and subsequently his largest career hit total as well.

On the defensive side of the ball his range factor rated 19th out of the 20 catchers that started more than 100 games in 2008. That being said, his range factor was holding fairly steady at 6.49 compared to his career mark of 6.86.
He also posted a career worst in caught stealing percentage. He allowed 34 stolen bases on 52 attempts. That being said, his 34.6% was good enough tie his brother Bengie for fifth among everyday catchers.

Also, 52 was the second lowest number of attempts against and everyday catcher showing that players are still leery of an arm that threw out almost half (47.8%) of would be base stealer over his career.
All this, and he is only 26.

First Base:
What do you even say?
Albert Pujols is having his numbers measured against the all time greats; and why not? He has just collected another MVP award, and amongst active players he is in the top three in average, OBP, Slugging Percentage, and OPS.
After 8 years in the big leagues, he’s 98th all time in home runs, ninth in homeruns per at bat, 23rd in batting average, 13thin OBP, 4th in slugging and 5th in career OPS.

Oh yeah, and in 2006 he threw in a gold glove just to prove he could pick it. I’d write more, but you know score on Albert, Prince. More like King!

Second Base:
Jared Schumaker…Sorry Skip I just had to.
Schumaker showed great promise for the Cardinals last season making starts at all three outfield positions. But with the release of Adam Kennedy, it looks like the Cardinals have Schumaker penciled in to be one half of their everyday double play combination.

The Cardinals have every intention of this being a full time transition for the accomplished outfielder who became the table setter for the Cardinals in 2008. When Adam Kennedy was released, this idea seemed crazy, but as of March 26th the St. Louis Dispatch reports general manager John Mozeliakhas confirmed that the job belongs to Schumaker.
Defensively, what does that mean? We’ll soon find out.

Offensively, Schumaker gives the Cardinals something dynamic at the second sack. He’s a little light on power, but in the lead off spot if he can repeat his line from 2008 (.302/.359/.406), or even his career numbers that include limited at bats in 2006 and 2007, he should prove the same kind of spark as a year ago when the Cardinals produced 779 runs, good for 4thin the NL, and 10th in the Majors.

Shortstop:
The Cardinals biggest move of the off-season was getting former first round pick Khalil Greene from the San Diego Padres. Greene will be asked to replace the defensive stability left behind by Cesar Izturis.
Greene is an interesting case of how a player’s overall numbers seem to disguise what kind of player he really is. In the last three years, Greene’s home vs. away splits are staggering.

Keep in mind both of these data sets come from a similar number of at bats, 696 at home vs. 719 on the road.
Overall numbers 2006 – 2008 .240/.291/.421
Home numbers   2006 – 2008: .214/.275/.378
Road numbers     2006 – 2008: .265/.307/.462
His road performance also outdid his home numbers in hits, doubles, homeruns, and runs batted in. He also struck out 29 times less.

Greene could be a much more effective player for the Cardinals in 2009 than many would anticipate. Although I do wonder how that double play combination is going to come together with Greene, who posted a 4.19 RF in 2008, and a converted outfield that has never fielded the position before.

Third Base:
2008 was the first season in the last couple the Cardinals saw some stability at third.
Troy Glaus had an outstanding year, playing in 151 games, posting 27 HR, and 99 RBI’s. Along with Pujols, Ankeil and Ludwick, he gave the Cardinals substantial pop in their line-up. He also managed to raise his batting average and OBP 15 and 13 points respectively over his career average.

This all looked very promising, until this spring when Glaus ceased all baseball activities and was placed on the 15 day disabled list. Although, even with his injury, Glaus may be capable of the same type of production as last season.
The Cardinals are going to take this opportunity to audition David Freese. He looks to be the heir apparent to the third place job.

It is never sure how a players numbers are going to translate out of Triple A, but last year looking at his Minor League Equivalency Calculation (http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/mlecalc.html) that take into account league and park factors, Freese projects into a fairly nice major leaguer. In a full season we’d be look at 464 at bats, 20 home runs and a line of .268/.310/.457 in his first year in ‘The Show’, based on his Triple A production.
Glaus is expected back in late April. With Freese, the Cardinals may not miss a beat.

Left Field:
Only 6 days until opening day, and this position still seems to be a coin flip.
Colby Rasmus? He could be the starter.

Chris Duncan sounds like he has the inside track on the job though. Both have been hitting the ball well, and we may see a platoon situation between the former first basemen, and the center fielder of the future.

As of right now, my money is on Rasmus to be the everyday out fielder by the end of the season. Duncan has major league experience, but he has proven to be streaky at best. He had an April where he batted .288 with a .839 OPS in April.
That even includes a 10 day stretch at the end of the month that was part of a 63 game stretch where he batted .231 with his OPS at .645.
Rasmus only projects at .216/.292/.328, which may be a little deceiving, as he was injured in 2008. Rasmus is only 23 this year, and I think you’ll see him steal a certain number at bats over the year and work his way into the everyday line up.

Center Field:
Rick Ankeil, the former breakout Cardinals pitcher looks to have completed his conversion to big league outfielder.
Although at 29, it looks like the centerfield might have a little more pop than he has already displayed at 27 dingers in his first full season in the major league outfielders.

Ankeil has locked up the job and there is no discussion as to who will be the everyday centerfielder for the Red Birds this year. Depending on how much promise Rasmus works out, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ankeil go to right and Ludwick go to left by the end of 2009. That’s my bold prediction for the year.

Right Field:
Ryan Ludwickbroke out huge last year and blasted 37 Home runs. Although the Slugging percentage dropped slightly in the second half of the season, he raised both his batting average and OBP significantly.

Pre All-Star Break: .289/.365/.5597
Post All-Star Break: .313/.388/.583

Other than June and September he batted over .300 every month, and in September he hit .291.
Ludwick was also fourth in range factor, and tied for fourth in assists among right fielder among right fielders that played two thirds of their team’s games at the position.

Starting Pitchers:
This will probably be the surprise rotation of the summer, Wainright and Carpenter if healthy are a great one two punch, and Kyle Lohse has been pegged as many people’s sleeper pick for the year.

Adam Wainrightonly made 20 starts in 2008 with an index finger problem that kept him out for two months. That being said he improved in every statistical category over his coming out party in 2007.

Look for Wainright to be a legitimate CY Young candidate in 2009.

Chris Carpenter a pitcher that went from a pile of unfilled potential in Toronto, to CY Young award winner and World Series champion in St. Louis. Health has always been Carpenters issue. He’s only made 4 starts in the last two seasons. He won 51 games from 2004-2006.

He doesn’t look like he’ll ever reach that plateau again, but at the same time, in those three years he never had an ERA of over 3.46 since going to the national league.

Kyle Lohse looks to be another product of Dave Duncan. One of a few pitching coaches with the ability to make a pitcher better. He was almost a full run better on his ERA at home last year pitched about up to his maximum potential in 2008.
I’m not sure he’s up to winning 15 games again, but with Duncan staying on top of thing, 15 might be in the cards, 13 seems very plausible as does the ability to eat up close to 200 innings in the process.

Joel Pinero is another Duncan product. The Cardinals are hoping he can be more productive than his 5.15 ERA from a year ago.
Wellenmeyer has spent most of his career in the pen, so there is no telling if his 191.2 innings will be a cause for a trip or two to the pen in 2009. If not he does have the stuff to repeat his 13-9 effort from a year ago.

Bullpen:
The Cards bullpen is much like its rotation: a ton of upside. Can they be any worse than the Pen that blew 31 leads in 2008? I would say probably not.

Outlook:
The line-up will sizzle all summer without question. Expect them to be in the top 5 in the National League in runs scored again.

With a “healthy” Carpenter and Wainright I think the starting pitching steps up and surprises in 2009. If the bullpen blows half the games it blew last year, that’s another 15 wins.

That would equal 101 wins! I don’t see that happening exactly, but I could certainly see a Cardinals team that improves a lot in 2009.

I see the Cardinals at 10 wins better with a stable pen, 95-67. Firmly believe that they lose the division by a sliver to the Cubs.

2009 New York Yankees Preview

Key Additions: Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett
Key Subtractions: Mike Mussina, Jason Giambi

A look at the lineup:
CA – One of the keys to the Yankees’ fortunes this year is the health of Jorge Posada.  The veteran catcher must be in the lineup if they are to seriously contend.  The good news is that, as Spring Training progressed, Posada’s right shoulder seemed pretty healthy.  Veteran Jose Molina (of the catching Molinas) will serve as Posada’s backup.

1B – The Free Agent prize of the off season, Mark Teixeira will be a fixture in the middle of the lineup while providing Gold Glove caliber defense.  Nick Swisher, off season acquisition from the White Sox, will be the backup.

2B – Yankee fans are hoping that Robinson Cano’s 2007 first half performance (.151 BA) was an aberration. There is reason to believe that it was just that and, if so, the Yankee lineup will be a very dangerous one.   Cody Ransom was expected to be the backup 2B but will see lots of action at the hot corner until Alex Rodriguez returns.

SS – Derek Jeter is a Yankee icon but an aging one.  His offensive game is still effective but, defensively, his range is a shadow of what it once was.  Still, there is no other option at SS so the Yankees will live with Jeter making the routine plays while continuing to hit .300.  Jeter’s eventual replacement may be, temporarily at least, sharing a locker room with the captain as 23 year old Ramiro Pena seems to have the inside track on the utility infielder position until Rodriguez returns to action.

3B – With all of the controversy that swirled around Alex Rodriguez during this offseason and all the anger aimed at him by frustrated Yankee fans over the past few years, the team’s immediate future rests on his shoulders.  Take ARod out of the batting order and suddenly the pinstripers aren’t quite so intimidating offensively.   The feeling here is that the Yankees can survive with Cody Ransom at 3B for the month of April.  If, however, Rodriguez’ recovery from hip surgery takes longer than expected or results in a drop in his production, New York will be home for the post season.

LF – Johnny Damon will be the starting left fielder which is a wise move since he is such a defensive liability anywhere else in the outfield.  Manage Joe Girardi has experimented with swapping Damon and Jeter in the 1-2 spots in the batting order and it seems that the change may be permanent.  At this stage in their respective careers, Damon is a more effective  #2 hitter than Jeter.

CF – Brett Gardner is slated to be the opening day CF but rumors persist that the Yankees may yet make a deal for veteran Milwaukee CF, Mike Cameron.  Melky Cabrera and Swisher will likely serve as reserve outfielders.

RF – Xavier Nady gives the Yankees a solid offensive and defensive presence in RF.  A platoon player for much of his MLB career, Nady will get the opportunity to prove that he is a full time starting outfielder.

DH – Hideki Matsui is coming off of knee surgery and will be restricted to DH duties until some time in June.  His bat is critical to the success of the team this season, especially while ARod is out of the lineup.

A look at the pitching:

Starters – Free Agent signees CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett should turn this starting staff into one of the league’s very best.  Sabathia give New York something they have lacked over the past few seasons; a legitimate Ace at the front of the rotation.  Chien-Ming Wang now slides comfortably in the #2 slot while AJ Burnett, Andy Petite and Joba Chamberlain round out a staff that can matchup with any other in MLB.

Youngsters Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, both of whom were ineffective in the starting rotation last April will start the season in AAA.  Hughes, who had a sold Spring Training for the Yankees, will be back with the big club at some time this season.  Kennedy also remains very much in the team’s future plans.

Relievers – Future Hall of Famer, Mariano Rivera anchors a bullpen that should be an effective unit for Girardi.   Brian Bruney, Damaso Marte, Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez and young left hander Phil Coke will man the bullpen in front of Rivera.  Reportedly, Jonathan Albaladejo, who saw brief action with the Yankees last season is in line for the final bullpen job.

Outlook:

There are so many question marks as the Yankees enter the season that it is difficult to predict how this season will turn out.  That said, there is so much talent here, especially with the additions of Teixeira, Sabathia and Burnett, logic dictates the team will be in the hunt for the AL Eastern crown for the entire season.

Prediction:

The Yankees will be engaged in a three way, steel cage death match with the Red Sox and Rays.  The prediction here is that they will outlast the Rays to finish 90-72 and capture second place in the East and the Wildcard slot

2009 Houston Astros Preview

In an effort to get every preview done by the season opener, you may notice that some of the team previews will be of the shorter variety. With some of the “extra information” not included, this should make for an easier read. Enjoy!

Key Additions: Mike Hampton, Jason Michaels, Ivan Rodriguez

Key Subtractions: Randy Wolf, Ty Wigginton, Mark Loretta, Brad Ausmus

A look at the lineup:

CA – Ivan Rodriguez was signed late in the off-season and will be the team’s starting catcher. Humberto Quintero will see plenty of action as the backup, while J.R. Towles will start the season in the minors.

1B – Lance Berkman is back as the everyday first baseman and three-hitter after an outstanding 2008 campaign. Darin Erstad will be the backup.

2B – Kazuo Matsui will lead off and man second base. Edwin Maysonet and Jason Smith add depth.

SS – Miguel Tejada will be the starter at shortstop and will hit fifth. Maysonet and Smith are the backups.

3B – Geoff Blum will open the season as the starting third baseman and will likely bat sixth. Chris Johnson will be the primary backup and Smith adds depth.

LF – Carlos Lee will be back as the starter in left field and will hit cleanup. Newcomer Jason Michaels will back him up.

CF – Michael Bourn is back as the everyday centerfielder and will hit eighth. Reggie Abercrombie and Erstad are the reserves.

RF – Hunter Pence will hit second and is the starter in right field. Erstad and Abercrombie add depth.

A look at the pitching:

Starters – Roy Oswalt is the undisputed ace of the rotation. The rest of the rotation is less than impressive, but Wandy Rodriguez is respectable. Brian Moehler, Mike Hampton <enter injury joke here>, and Russ Ortiz round out the rotation. Jose Capellan, Felipe Paulino, Alberto Arias, Brandon Backe, and Clay Hensley are also under contract and will compete for starts.

Relievers – Jose Valverde is back as the closer. LaTroy Hawkins, Geoff Geary, Doug Brocail, Wesley Wright, Tim Byrdak, Chris Sampson, and Jeff Fulchino will battle it out for innings in relief.

Outlook:

There is not much to like if you’re an Astros’ fan. The team did not improve during the off-season and the pitching staff is a mess. There are a few good hitters in town, but that won’t be enough to keep this team competitive.

Prediction:

The Astros will give the Pirates a run for their money for the basement position in the NL Central. Expect a record near 69-93.

2009 Texas Rangers Preview

In an effort to get every preview done by the season opener, you may notice that some of the team previews will be of the shorter variety. With some of the “extra information” not included, this should make for an easier read. Enjoy!

Key Additions: Derrick Turnbow, Omar Vizquel

Key Subtractions: Milton Bradley, Gerald Laird, Ramon Vasquez

A look at the lineup:

CA – Jarrod Saltalamacchia is expected to get a majority of the at-bats, but Taylor Teagarden will see plenty of work as well and could eventually steal the job away. Max Ramirez will begin the season in the minors, but could see work later in the season.

1B – Chris Davis will get a chance to play everyday at first base and will be relied on for power in the middle of the order. Hank Blalock will be his primary backup.

2B – Ian Kinsler’s outstanding 2008 campaign was cut short by injury, but he will be back at second base and in the leadoff spot for the Rangers in 2009. Omar Vizquel is the primary backup.

SS – Elvis Andrus will open the season as the team’s starting shortstop and nine hitter. If he struggles in his first full-time action in the majors, Vizquel will get the call. Joaquin Arias adds depth.

3B – Michael Young makes the move from shortstop to third base this season. Young, who is expected to hit second, will be backed up by Travis Metcalf and Blalock.

LF – David Murphy will be the starter in left field and will bat seventh. Marlon Byrd and Frank Catalanotto will see work off the bench.

CF – Josh Hamilton is back as the starter in centerfield and will hit third. Andruw Jones and Byrd are his primary backups.

RF – Nelson Cruz will get a chance to start in right field and will likely hit sixth. Byrd will back him up as well.

DH – Hank Blalock will hope injuries will be less of an issue in the designated hitter role. He is expected to hit cleanup. Catalanotto and Byrd could also see some time at DH.

A look at the pitching:

Starters – Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla will lead one of the league’s worst rotations. Brandon McCarthy, Matt Harrison, and Scott Feldman are expected to complete the starting five. Other pitchers who could see starts throughout the year include Jason Jennings, Kason Gabbard, Kris Benson, Derek Holland, and Neftali Feliz.

Relievers – Frank Francisco will return as the team’s closer. Eddie Guardado and C.J. Wilson will be in the setup role. Warner Madrigal, Josh Rupe, Joaquin Benoit, Willie Eyre, Derrick Turnbow, and Dustin Nippert will battle it out for the rest of the innings in relief.

Outlook:

The offense should be outstanding, especially since it is a group of power hitters in a hitter’s park. That said, as usual, the pitching is horrible. It’s hard to imagine this team competing without an improved rotation.

Prediction:

The Rangers will be competitive thanks to the offense, but the pitching will inevitably keep them from competing for a playoff spot. They will go 75-87 and finish third in the AL West.

2009 Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

In an effort to get every preview done by the season opener, you may notice that some of the team previews will be of the shorter variety. With some of the “extra information” not included, this should make for an easier read. Enjoy!

Key Additions: Jon Garland, Felipe Lopez, Scott Schoenweis, Tom Gordon

Key Subtractions: Randy Johnson, Orlando Hudson, Brandon Lyon, Adam Dunn, Juan Cruz

A look at the lineup:

CA – Chris Snyder is back as the catcher and is expected to hit eighth. Miguel Montero will be the primary backup. Rule 5 pick James Skelton also could see some work.

1B – Chad Tracy will be at first base most days, but Conor Jackson will see time as well. Tony Clark is also on the roster and could see some work.

2B – Felipe Lopez was acquired this off-season to be the leadoff man and everyday second baseman. Augie Ojeda is the primary reserve, while Josh Wilson and Skelton add depth.

SS – Stephen Drew came into his own last season and will be expected to carry the load as the team’s shortstop and three-hitter in 2009. Ojeda is the primary backup.

3B – Mark Reynolds will be back as the third baseman and will hit sixth. Chad Tracy could also see some work at the hot corner and Wilson adds depth.

LF – Formerly a first baseman, Conor Jackson was moved out of a crowded infield and into left last season. The experiment worked out and Jackson will be back as the everyday left fielder and cleanup hitter in 2009. Eric Byrnes should see a ton of work off the bench.

CF – Chris Young is back as the centerfielder and will hit second. Byrnes will be the backup.

RF – Arizona will be hoping starting rightfielder and five-hitter Justin Upton will reach his sky-high potential this season. Byrnes will be the reserve.

A look at the pitching:

Starters – Brandon Webb and Dan Haren return as one of the best pitching duos in major league baseball. Doug Davis and newcomer Jon Garland add experience to the middle of the rotation. Highly-touted Max Scherzer will get a shot to contribute as the team’s fifth starter and could be primed for a breakout season. Yusmeiro Petit, Billy Buckner, and Juan Gutierrez are options for spot starts.

Relievers – With Brandon Lyon in Detroit, Chad Qualls is the team’s new closer. Tony Pena and Jon Rauch are two of the game’s finest setup men.  Tom Gordon was signed to add talent to the bullpen and he will have to battle it out for innings with a cast that includes Doug Slaten, Leo Rosales, Bobby Korecky, Scott Schoenweis, and Petit.

Outlook:

The Diamondbacks lost a few decent players this off-season, but they appear to still be in pretty good shape for 2009. The lineup is solid and it’s young talent should only be better this year. The Webb-Haren-led rotation is respectable and will be even better if Scherzer is effective. The seventh through ninth innings should be pretty safe with a talented back end of the bullpen.

Prediction:

The Dodgers will prove to be too tough and will win the NL West, but the Diamondbacks will hang in the race all season long. In the end, it will be an 86-76 season that results in no playoff appearance.

2009 Washington Nationals Preview

In an effort to get every preview done by the season opener, you may notice that some of the team previews will be of the shorter variety. With some of the “extra information” not included, this should make for an easier read. Enjoy!

Key Additions: Daniel Cabrera, Scott Olsen, Josh Willingham, Adam Dunn
Key Subtractions: Emilio Bonafacio, Aaron Boone, Tim Redding

A look at the lineup:

CA – Jesus Flores will get a majority of the at-bats at catcher. Wil Nieves will be the primary reserve and Luke Montz and Josh Bard are also options.

1B – Nick Johnson is back as the everyday firstbaseman and will hit cleanup. Although he will start in left field, newcomer Adam Dunn is also expected to see some action at first base. Ronnie Belliard adds depth.

2B – Anderson Hernandez and Belliard will duke it out for playing time at second. Willie Harris likely will see action as well.

SS – Cristian Guzman will man the shortstop position and hit second. Alberto Gonzalez is the top reserve.

3B – Ryan Zimmerman returns as the starting third baseman and is expected to hit third. Belliard adds depth at the hot corner.

LF – Adam Dunn was the team’s big offseason signing and will be asked to play most days in left field, while adding pop to the middle of the order. Another off-season acquisition, Josh Willingham, will be his backup. Harris adds depth.

CF – Lastings Milledge will be a huge part of the team’s plans this season as the leadoff hitter and center fielder. Elijah Dukes could also see some work in center and Harris could get some action as well.

RF – Elijah Dukes will start in right field and hit in the middle of the lineup. Austin Kearns will be the top reserve in right and Harris will likely see some time as well.

A look at the pitching:

Starters – Scott Olsen and Daniel Cabrera were both acquired in the off-season and will be called upon to lead the rotation. Prospect Jordan Zimmerman is expected to start the season in the rotation and could make an impact. John Lannan and Shairon Martis fill out the final two spots. Collin Balester, Jason Bergmann, and Garrett Mock could also see starts during the 2009 season.

Relievers – Joel Hanrahan will be the team’s closer in 2009, a role he carries over from the end of last season. Saul Rivera, Steven Shell, and Joe Beimel are the top setup candidates. Jesus Colome, Julian Tavarez, Marco Estrada, Wilfredo Ledezma, Bergmann, and Mock will battle it out for a spot in the bullpen.

Outlook:

The top half of the lineup is pretty impressive and there is a ton of depth in the outfield. The health of the team’s young stars, most notably Milledge, Dukes, Zimmerman, and Johnson, will be key. There is a bunch of depth in the outfield and a roster void could be filled via a trade of Kearns. The pitching staff has a ton of question marks, most specifically the rotation, which is less than impressive to say the least. If the rotation can keep the team in games, the Nationals could actually be half decent this season. They could easily win 10-15 more games than the 59 they won in 2008.

Prediction:

The offense will be respectable, but the pitching staff will prove to be the Achilles heel. The Nationals will finish fourth in the NL East with a record of 77-85.

2009 RBI Magazine Season Preview

For the first time ever, the writers of RBI Magazine have joined together to make their predictions for the 2009 major league baseball season. Seven of the staff’s finest writers took the time to predict how the upcoming campaign will turn out and the votes were tallied.

The writers were also asked to add a few thoughts on each team and you will see some of them throughout this feature. You may notice that some of the comments contradict one another since we all had our own opinions. That should make sense, since, well, what fun would it be if we were all on the same page?

American League:

AL East:

1. Red Sox (6 First Place Votes)
-Big budget + good front office = great combination
-Smart signings in Penny and Smoltz boost already stellar staff. Is Ortiz back? If so, look out.
-If David Ortiz and Josh Beckett aren’t healthy, this team could be in trouble.
-No major changes this offseason, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. The Red Sox will be tough to beat as always

2. Rays (1) *Wildcard*
-Continue to be one of the best teams in baseball, and should only get better. Burrell makes a huge impact in the middle of this lineup.
-It’s scary, but the best young pitching staff in baseball could still be getting better..
-A young, talented pitching staff is a year older and should be even better. The offense is a bit better than in 2008
-Pitching still working for the Rays, but the bats aren’t there like they were at the end of 2008.

3. Yankees
-Biggest budget, lots of money spent is extremely volatile situation, especially with A-Rod out of action.
-Someone has to lose out and I don’t trust the Burnett signing. Plus, A-Rod is hurt and they have questions at 2B and CF.
-AJ Burnett has Carl Pavano written all over him.
-Aside of a few exceptions, the offense doesn’t blow my socks off. That said, the pitching staff is outstanding

4. Blue Jays
-Rotation issues and a sub-par offense will bury them. Doc Halladay can still win 20, but who else is there?
-The only way the Jays win the division is if Roy Halladay pitches all 162 games.
-Rios-Lind-Snider is a nice young trio, but this team is not good enough to compete in a tough division
-Opposite of last year: exciting young hitters, no arms

5. Orioles
-Keep a close eye on the O’s. They’re on the way up, but may never be able to compete in the AL East
-I think the O’s take a step forward with guys like Jones, Wieters, Guthrie, and Markakis leading the way.
-They’ll finish last again, but on the bright side, they’re still by far the best team in the Maryland/DC area.
-The first half of the order could be very, very good, but the rest of the team stinks…especially the starting pitching.

AL Central:

1. Indians (3)
-Well run team in a middle of the pack division. Questionable rotation does well enough. Grady Sizemore is a player to watch this season.
-Potential of rotation is nice, but Hafner and V-Mart need comeback years. I think they take a giant leap forward
-Kerry Wood will finally be the answer to the Indians recent closer woes.
-The rotation is less than impressive, but the lineup and the bullpen are very good

2. Twins (3)
-Great pitching staff, decent lineup, but Mauer’s injury may hold this team back. There’s way too much pressure on Liriano to return to his old form after surgery.
-Addition of Crede and maybe the best young staff in the game (Liriano, Blackburn, Baker, Slowey) take this team to the playoffs.
-The lineup is solid and has upside, but the young rotation will be make or break and will be the key to their success
-Steady as she goes, M&M keep them in the hunt

3. Tigers (1)
-Lots of runs scored + lots of runs allowed = bad recipe for winning.
-Nothing has changed with this team. Iffy rotation, expensive position players haven’t meshed. Talent says they could end up first or last.
-No matter how many runs the Tigers score, if the pitching doesn’t improve, they’ll finish last again.
-Not bad at the plate, but the pitching staff was not addressed in the offseason and will struggle again in 2009

4. White Sox
-Perennial overachievers back near the basement.
-The youth movement on the south side is the right move, but isn’t ready yet.
-A rough offseason leaves this team quite a bit worse than the team that won 89 games last season
-Too many kids for Ozzie

5. Royals
-Runner-up for best offseason quote: “We think Willie Bloomquist is a great addition, a Craig Counsell type of player.” –Dayton Moore after spending 2 million dollars. Two days later: Counsell signs with Milwaukee for less than 1 million.
-Need Gordon to get better and pitching staff can’t get worse. Is this a .500 year in the making? That would be a win for the Royals.
-A lot of people are high on the Royals, but I don’t see it. There is little to like here.
-Not as bad as they usually are.

AL West:

1. Angels (5)
-Could finally be removed from the top of the division after an incredibly lucky year.
-Too talented in an otherwise weak AL West. Have taken a step back and age a concern, but still better than the rest. 90 wins a given.
-Lost a ton of talent this offseason, but still have enough to win the weakest division in the AL.
-I doubt this team wins 100 games again, but the lineup is decent and the pitching could be better than advertised.

2. Athletics (2)
-Lots of walks and major power lifts questionable pitching staff to a victory in one of the weakest divisions in the MLB
-Name me two starting pitchers. Exactly. Offense looks nice on paper, but it’s the staff that may not be ready for prime time.
-How close to the Angels do they have to be at the trade deadline to resist trading Matt Holiday for prospects?
-A busy offseason has brought a new look to Oakland, but I don’t see that translating to contention in 2009

3. Rangers
-Should score a ton of runs, but the defense and pitching is awful.
-I want them to win the division, but I just don’t see how it’s possible. Hamilton, Kinsler are awesome. Pitching staff is not.
-They’ll score a ton of runs, but may have the worst rotation in the league.
-This team appears to be on the cusp of being a playoff team, but the pitching is just awful. Another year of mediocrity in Texas

4. Mariners
-Still bad, but major improvement. A couple years from being major contenders.
-Homecoming for Griffey Jr. won’t be fun. Way too many question marks. Look for comeback year from Bedard, though.
-They can’t possibly be as bad as last season, but they won’t be good either.
-The second half of the lineup won’t produce much, but the rotation should be respectable. This team won’t compete quite yet

National League:

NL East:

1. Phillies (5)
-Even though they got worse, they’re still the class of the NL East.
-Same team, same result. Still looking good and primed to make another run. Hamels injury and fifth starter something to watch.
-Until proven otherwise, they’re still the team to beat in the division.
-A majority of last season’s World Series’ championship team is back, which should translate to a successful season

2. Mets (2)
-Disappointing season after disappointing season, Minaya should be run out of New York soon.
-The new, improved bullpen should prevent a third straight September slide.
-Much of last year’s team is back, but now the bullpen has a few big arms, which should keep them close in the divisional race
-This is the year they don’t collapse…I think

3. Braves
-Revamped pitching staff brings the Braves close to where they were in the 90s.
-They’ll be competitive, but they’re young talent is still developing.
-The lineup isn’t too impressive and the pitching staff has too many injury risks to keep them competitive for 162 games.
-Revamped staff could be best in NL East. But, can Francoeur come back and will Chipper stay healthy? Both are big ifs.

4. Marlins
-Marlins won’t sell the house for a World Series this year, but with a new stadium coming, they will probably use their method to win one soon.
-In love with young pitching staff led by horse Ricky Nolasco. And when you have Hanley in the order, good things will come.
-No team is more consistently competitive with fewer resources than Florida.
-Hanley Ramirez continues his assault on National League pitching. Be afraid.

5. Nationals
-Quote of the offseason: “When you go to a club at 4 in the morning, and you’re just waiting, waiting, a 600-pounder looks like J-Lo. And to me this is Jennifer Lopez right here. It’s 4 in the morning. Too much to drink. So, Nationals: Jennifer Lopez to me.” –Julian Tavarez on why he signed with Washington
-NL East doormat will continue to get stomped on. Dunn signing helps with power, but Milledge, Dukes need big seasons, or else.
-Moving from Montreal hasn’t saved this debacle of a franchise.
-It’s hard not to love the lineup, but where is the pitching?

NL Central:

1. Cubs (7)
-Still loaded with pitching and a very good offense. No reason why they shouldn’t win 95+ again.
-The best regular season team in the NL. But Cubs fans know, the curse doesn’t strike until October.”
-It’s hard to find weaknesses on this roster. The lineup is stellar and the pitching is very good from top to bottom
-The class of the Central—just too good

2. Cardinals *Wildcard*
-Albert Pujols remains the greatest player in baseball, but the supporting cast doesn’t give him much help.
-Great offense, but the pitching, especially the bullpen, has too many question marks.
-The Pujols-led offense is very good and the pitching staff is decent, which should translate into a contender
-Albert Pujols is God, er, good. Both?

3. Brewers
-Will compete all year long, but pitching ultimately leaves them down. The Brew Crew is still a couple years away, depending on how the young pitching staff pans out.
-Don’t count on a repeat. No C.C, no Sheets, no way. There is hope as Gamel and Gallardo are studs in the making. Braun = 40 HR
-How do you replace CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets?
-Losing Sabathia and Sheets is tough, but the rotation isn’t as bad as advertised. With a decent offense, this team should hang in there

4. Reds
-Lots of youth and could be a surprise team, but inexperienced players all over usually doesn’t work too well.
-Not enough on offense as Dunn has taken his 40 homers to D.C. Nice rotation with Volquez/Cueto/Harang is all they have.
-So much young talent, especially in the pitching staff. Could be the Tampa Bay Rays of 2009.
-The Reds are full of young talent and appear ready to contend in the Central

5. Astros
-Ed Wade.
-Carlos Lee was about to have a monster year, but got hurt. Look for 120 RBI out of him and Berkman. But after Oswalt, what is there?
-Lee-Berkman-Pence are an impressive trio, but where is the pitching?
-Lance Berkman continues to slug his way to 300 homers and beyond, but he and Roy Oswalt are not enough to right this ship.

6. Pirates
-Even worse than Ed Wade. But, they have stocked the farm, and with the right moves… nah, I can’t even write that.
-Pittsburgh hasn’t had a winning season since Barry Bonds left, and it won’t this year either.”
-A nice group of kids, but this team is no better than last year’s last place squad
-Losing season number 17, wonder if they are trying to get to Mario’s 66 for good luck.

NL West:

1. Dodgers (5)
-Manny or no Manny, the team is pretty good and one of the better teams in baseball. Hopefully he plays defense for them.
-Re-signing Manny makes every hitter in this lineup better.
-”I’m Back….”
-The bullpen and bottom of the rotation are shaky, but the lineup is deep with talent

2. Diamondbacks (1)
-A well run organization for a couple years, loaded with young talent, but questionable deals have hampered them. Should compete, but will fall off when Dan Haren does the same after the All-Star Break.
-Strong rotation, once again, with Webb/Haren, but offense still young and learning. Lineup strikes out too much (1287 total in ’08).
-Webb and Haren may not be Johnson and Schilling, but they’re darn close.
-The lineup runs very deep and is full of young talent. The pitching is respectable, but far from a sure thing. Scherzer could be the wild card

3. Giants
-Shockers of the year, the no offense San Francisco Giants surprise everyone. Great pitching, solid defense, in a huge pitchers park might end up working out for them
-If Cain can get some support, he could win 18 games. Along with Lincecum and Johnson, it’s a nice staff. However, there’s too many maybes in the lineup.
-Great pitching, but they’ll struggle to score runs.
-The Giants were, at times, decent last year and, led by an impressive pitching staff, will be even better this season

4. Rockies
-My how the mighty have fallen. Just two years removed from a World Series appearance and now trotting out one of the worst teams in the Bigs.
-Offense is only thing this team has. Holliday is gone, but Iannetta and Tulowitzki are stars in the making. They could end up last.
-Holliday is out, but the lineup is still pretty decent. That said, there’s not much to love on the hill.
-Traded their best player for Huston Street. Does that make sense to anyone?

5. Padres (1)
-The ownerships’ personal issues have leaked over into business and this team will have a tough time competing for a couple years. But don’t count excellent GM Kevin Towers out.
-It’s only going to get worse before it gets better in San Diego.
-There are a few solid players on the roster, but this team is not good enough to threaten for a playoff spot in 2009.
-Can Peavy go Sub 3 with the ERA and sub .500 with the record again?

And now to the fun stuff…

World Series Picks:
Mike: Red Sox over Cubs
Louis: Cubs over Angels
Pat: Cardinals over Red Sox
Dave K: Indians over Dodgers
Aaron: Phillies over Red Sox
David A: Yankees over Cubs
Shawn: Red Sox over Marlins
Staff: Red Sox over Cubs

AL Biggest Surprise: Twins (2), Athletics (2), Tigers, Royals, Red Sox
-“The Genius” Billy Beane is back at it again, and regardless of the stadium situation in Oakland, they will be a force to be dealt with.
-Twins win 95
-Yes, the Red Sox. Everyone’s talking about the Yankees and the Rays. Don’t sleep on a very talented Red Sox club.
-Twins, if they stay healthy. I also wouldn’t rule out the Mariners

AL Biggest Disappointment: Yankees (2), Rays (2), Tigers, Angels, Blue Jays
-All that money spent, and still no ring. The first year in New Yankee Stadium will be one to remember, but not for a good reason.
-The Rays are very good, but they won’t outlast the Yankees or Red Sox this year.
-Blue Jays lose 90+
-Yankees, after breaking the bank
-Tampa Bay can’t repeat magic they captured last year.

NL Biggest Surprise: Cardinals (3), Reds (2), Giants, Padres
-Giants magic number = 20. As in 20 wins from Timmy, 20 games from the Unit… and 20 homers from anyone.”
-The Reds are stacked with young talent. Votto and Bruce could be quite the duo for a long time.
-Adam Wainwright wins 21 games, Cards win NL

NL Biggest Disappointment: Mets (3), Braves (2), Brewers, Phillies
-Shouldn’t shock you to see the Mets listed in this category.
-Sure the Braves revamped the pitching staff, but a ton of injuries are almost inevitable with the group of players they will be relying on.
-Mets fall short again

Players Awards:

NL Cy Young: Cole Hamels (2), Johan Santana (2), Tim Lincecum, Adam Wainwright, Chad Billingsley

AL Cy Young: CC Sabathia (3), Roy Halladay (3), Jon Lester

NL MVP: Albert Pujols (3), David Wright, Chase Utley, Manny Ramirez, Hanley Ramirez

AL MVP: Grady Sizemore (3), Justin Morneau (2), Matt Holliday, Miguel Cabrera

NL Breakout Player: Joey Votto (2), Yovani Gallardo, Chris Iannetta, Matt Kemp, Jayson Werth, Josh Johnson

AL Breakout Player: Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Francisco Liriano, Franklin Gutierrez, Matt Joyce, Adam Lind, Chris Davis

2009 Boston Red Sox Preview

Key Additions: RHP Ramon Ramirez (trade with Royals), RHP Brad Penny (free agent from Dodgers), RHP John Smoltz (free agent from the Braves), OF Rocco Baldelli (free agent from Rays), RHP Takashi Saito (free agent from Dodgers)

Key Subtractions:  RHP Mike Timlin (free agent, unsigned), 1B Sean Casey (retired), RHP Paul Byrd (free agent, unsigned), RHP Curt Schilling (retired), C Kevin Cash (free agent, signed with the Yankees), OF Coco Crisp (traded to Royals), SS Alex Cora (free agent, signed with Mets).

A look at the lineup:

The Red Sox front office spent the first few months of the off season in hot pursuit of Free Agent 1B Mark Teixeira.  Ultimately, long time nemesis, Uber Agent Scott Boras orchestrated a mega deal for Teixeira with the AL East rival New York Yankees.

Surprisingly, to some at least, the Red Sox did not pursue other high profile offensive free agents such as Adam Dunn. Instead the Theo Epstein and company decided to gamble on the return to health of David Ortiz and Mike Lowell and the continued improvement of young stars Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis.

Time will tell if the Sox were being pound wise or penny foolish.

Catcher:  After a prolonged contract negotiation, free agent catcher and team captain Jason Varitek re-signed with the Red Sox.  There are many Red Sox fans who believe that was not exactly a positive development as Varitek (.220 BA, 13 HR, 43 RBI .672 OPS) suffered through a terrible year at the plate.  Long considered one of the best handlers of a pitching staff, Varitek’s defensive skill can no longer offset his weak hitting.

At this writing, prospect George Kottaras (.243 BA, 22 HR, 65 RBI at AAA Pawtucket) is slated to backup Varitek as well as serving as knuckleballer Tim Wakefield’s personal catcher.  It would not surprise anyone if the Red Sox traded for a young catcher, if Kottaras cannot convince the team quickly, that he is the catcher of the future.

First Base:  After losing out on Teixeira, the front office and fans could console themselves with the knowledge that rising star Kevin Youkilis will be playing the position.  Youkilis (.312 BA, 29 HR, 115 RBI) finished third in the AL MVP race and played stellar defense.  Had the Sox landed Teixeira, Youkilis would likely have moved back to his natural 3B position but given how well he fielded the position last season before Mike Lowell’s injury forced him back to third, Manager Terry Francona would like to see Youk stay on the left side of the infield for the entire season.

Last year’s regular season backup 1B Sean Casey has retired but Mark Kotsay is due back from off season surgery in early May.  Kotsay played a surprisingly crisp defensive 1B during last season’s post season and will likely be the main backup at 1B.

Second Base: Back in early May of 2007, then-rookie 2B Dustin Pedroia’s batting average was hovering around the .150 mark.  It’s hard to believe that a player could make the trek from being a prime candidate for demotion to 2007 AL Rookie of the Year to 2008 AL MVP but that is precisely what Pedroia did.   The diminutive but scrappy 2B put up an impressive array of offensive stats including a .326 BA, a surprising 17 HR and 83 RBI.   Given Pedroia’s competitive disposition and quest to prove wrong, anyone who ever had a disparaging word to say about him, one can imagine he continue to improve.

No slouch in the field, Dustin was named as AL Gold Glove winner at 2B. The backup situation is muddled by the injury to SS Julio Lugo.  It was thought that Jed Lowrie (.248/2 HR/ 46 RBI) would fill the utility role freed up by the departure of Alex Cora but he will now open the season in the starting SS role. Veteran utility IF Nick Green is the likeliest candidate to fill the utility role until Lugo’s return.

Shortstop:  There was an interesting battle brewing in Spring Training for the starting SS role, until Lugo suffered a knee injury and had to undergo surgery.  Now it seems certain that Lowrie will be the opening day SS.  Even when he returns in late April, Lugo is not assured of winning back the starting job based on his lackluster offensive performance (.268/1 HR/22 RBI) in 2008.

Third Base:  Losing starting 3B Mike Lowell to a season ending hip injury at mid season stripped the Red Sox of one of their leading offensive run producers and also a steady, if unspectacular defensive 3B.  Following off season surgery, Lowell was held out of exhibition games until late March.  Reports have been positive and the Red Sox seem cautiously optimistic about Lowell’s health for the 2009 season.  Even with his injury, Lowell managed to crank out 17 HRs and 73 RBIs last season.

Lowrie and Youkilis can each play 3B should Lowell need a rest from time to time or suffer another injury.

Left Field:  Jason Bay (.286/ 31 HR/ 101 RBI) filled in admirably for one of the greatest hitters of his time, Manny Ramirez following Ramirez’ shameful exit from Boston at last season’s trading deadline.  Despite the acrimony at the end of his Red Sox career, Manny is still loved by a segment of Red Sox fans.  A slow start on Bay’s part may result in him being the target of the fans’ disappointment at the loss of Manny.

Center Field:  Rookie CF Jacoby Ellsbury’s offensive numbers (.280/ 9 HR/ 47 RBI) weren’t bad for his first full MLB season.  Yet, there was a general sense that Ellsbury’s performance was disappointing, especially following his hot post season performance in 2007.  The Red Sox would like Ellsbury to hit the ball on the ground more and improve on his .336 OBP.  At some point, Ellsbury is going to have to accept that he is more leadoff batter than he is a #3 hitter.

Right Field: The ever-fragile JD Drew started only 109 games in 2008 due to injury (is anyone surprised?) and continues to be one of the more maddening players in MLB.  When he is on the field the guy is a prolific hitter ( as his .927 OPS will attest) but he just has never been able to remain healthy for an entire season.

With the uncertainty surrounding the health Lowell and David Ortiz, the Sox need a healthy Drew in RF for 140-150 games.  Things don’t look good in that regard since Drew has been complaining of back stiffness since he beginning of Spring Training.  Free Agent OF and Rhode Island native , Rocco Baldelli will back up all three of the OF spots.  Baldelli has not exactly been the picture of health over the past few season but received a positive diagnosis of his past medical issues, having been found to be suffering from Channelopathy.  The good news is that his doctors feel that the disease is controllable with medication and Baldelli hopes to see much more action in 2009 than he did in 2008.

Designated Hitter:  David Ortiz battled the injury bug as well in 2008, as a wrist injury sidelined him for seven weeks and continued to affect his swing once he returned.  Ortiz is still the key component to the Red Sox offense, especially with Ramirez off enjoying the sunshine in Manny-wood.   With a healthy, more fit Ortiz (he was clearly overweight last season but came to this Spring Training looking as if he spent his off season with Richard Simmons and Jared from Subway) prospects for a return to Ortiz’ pre 2008 numbers seem bright.

It’s as simple as this.  With a healthy Ortiz, the Red Sox batting order is murder on opposing pitching staffs.  Without him, they are a gritty group who will battle the opposing pitcher on every AB, but one that will not be nearly as intimidating as the 2004-2007 lineups that were among the best in MLB.

A look at the pitching:

Starters: Staff Ace Josh Beckett was not able to replicate his dominating 2007 performance in 2008.  Reportedly, Beckett was not in the best of condition when he reported to Fort Myers last February and got off on the wrong foot.  His stats (12-10, 4.03 ERA, 172 Ks and 1.19 WHIP) were not all that bad but he struggled through many of his starts and just was not as sharp as he was in 2007.

Beckett suffered elbow and back injuries last season which contributed to his drop off in performance.  All indications are that the big Texan is in excellent shape this year and has looked much more like his 2007 self this spring.

Daisuke Matsuzaka’s pitching line for 2008 is a study in contradictions, as were many of his starts.  “Dice-K,” finished with an impressive 18-2 record and a 2.90 ERA.  Cy Young stuff, right?  Not so fast.  Matsuzaka tends to run up his pitch counts early in the game and is prone to streaks of wildness (his 1.67 WHIP is testament to that) and seemed to be constantly pitching his way out of bases loaded jams.  It’s hard to argue with an 18 win season but Matsuzaka must learn to pound the strike zone with more frequency if he is going to join the ranks of elite MLB starting pitchers.  That said, most MLB teams would gladly slot Matsuzaka in the #2 slot in the rotation.

Jon Lester: One of the most inspiring sports stories to come along in some time, last season, Lester went from being best known as a cancer survivor to one of the best left handed starters in all of MLB.  Lester (16-6, 3.21 ERA, 152 Ks) put to rest any doubts that may have existed regarding his stamina as he pitched a career high 210 1/3 innings in 2008.  He was the team’s most consistent starting pitcher throughout last season.

Knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (10-11, 4.13 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) continues to be an effective back of the rotation starter at the age of 42.  Despite a few nagging injuries over the past two seasons, Wake can be counted on to give the team 180+ innings.

The dentity of the fifth starter in the rotation is a bit uncertain at this writing.  The Red Sox signed Brad Penny and John Smoltz, both of whom are coming off 2008 seasons lost to injury, as potential 4th or 5th starters.  Smoltz was signed with the understanding that he would not be available until early June.  It was hoped that Penny would be ready for duty early in the season.

Penny made his first Spring Training appearance at the end of March, pitched well and may be on target for a start on April 12th, the first day the Red Sox will require the service of a fifth starter.  Smoltz is just beginning to throw bullpen sessions and is, as expected a couple of months away from joining the team.

Also in the picture is Clay Buchholz, a top pitching prospect who spent most of last season in AAA after a frighteningly ineffective (2-9, 6.72 ERA, 1.76 WHIP) early season performance with the big club.  After an off season in which he was rumored to be on the block as the Red Sox reportedly discussed a trade for one of the Texas Rangers young catchers, Buchholz has bounced back nicely and this looks very much like the pitcher who threw a no hitter in one of his first MLB starts in 2007.

The Red Sox, to date, have been unwilling to give up on Buchholz’ considerable potential.   That could change, especially if Varitek starts slowly, prompting the Sox to re-open discussions with Texas. The Rangers will likely demand Buchholz in return for one of the team’s young catching prospects.

To further complicate the starting rotation picture, second year pitcher Justin Masterson, thought to be targeted for a bullpen role again this season, has pitched well enough to remain in contention for a starting spot.

All of this may cause the Red Sox coaching staff to suffer a few sleepless nights but one would imagine the rest of MLB would have little sympathy for the Sox since few other teams count a pitching surplus among their problem areas.

Bullpen:  The Red Sox have, on paper, one of, if not the deepest bullpens in all of baseball.

Jonathan Papelbon has been money during his three seasons as the Red Sox closer.  Last season he was as dominating as ever (41 Saves, 0.95 WHIP) throughout most of the year but he seemed less effective late in the season and in the post season.  Papelbon admitted during the off season that he had next-to-nothing left in his tank at the end of the season.  Francona and pitching coach John Farrell are going to have to be mindful of scaling back Papelbon’s innings in 2009 if they want to avoid a breakdown.

With that in mind, The Sox signed Free Agent relief pitcher, ex-Dodger Takashi Saito.  The Japanese import notched 81 saves in his three year stint as closer in Los Angeles but suffered a season ending elbow injury in 2008.  Saito has looked sharp in his Spring Training appearances thus far in 2008 and may very well afford Francona the luxury of reducing Papelbon’s workload.  Saito will also serve as the RH setup man.

Hideki Okajima (2.61 ERA, 23 Holds, 1.16 WHIP) continued to be a valuable left handed set up man last season and figures to remain in that role in 2008.  Fellow left hander, Javier Lopez (2.43 ERA, 10 Holds, 1.35 WHIP) may find himself in a battle for a roster spot.

Boston added yet another dependable arm to the pen in the offseason when they traded OF Coco Crisp to the Kansas City Royals for Ramon Ramirez (2.64 ERA, 21 Holds, 1.23 WHIP).  Ramirez is expected to provide middle relief along with Boston native, Manny Delcarmen.

Masterson will likely return to the bullpen, making this one of the deepest MLB relief corps in recent memory.

Outlook:  The Red Sox enter 2009 as the favorite to win the American League East.  The pitching staff is the deepest in MLB and the offense, even with the injury/age related concerns regarding Lowell and Ortiz, is still one of the best in baseball.

The bad news for the rest of the American League is that, with all the young talent that has already made its way to Fenway Park from the farm system, there is more on the way.  It is very likely that top prospect 1B Lars Anderson (Baseball America’s #17th ranked MLB Prospect) and SP Michael Bowden (1-0, 3.60 ERA with Red Sox in 2008) will make it to the big club before the season draws to an end.

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Prediction: The Prediction here is that the Red Sox win the AL East after a season long, three way battle with the Yankees and Rays.  As much as the Yankees have improved themselves with their free agent signings and as much young talent on Tampa’s roster, the Red Sox pitching is too deep and the batting order still too dangerous.

I see a 95-67 regular season record for the Red Sox who must be considered among a handful of favorites to win the 2009 World Series.

Curt Schilling To The Hall?

It all started in 1988, at the age of 21, Curt Schilling threw his first major league pitch debuting on the mound for the Baltimore Orioles after being called up in early September. For the rest of that season he managed to grind his way through four starts, totaling 14.2 innings and reaching his peak of four consecutive innings.

The stat line for his September call up reads as follows in four starts: 0-3, 9.82 era—10 walks, four strikeouts, and a WHIP of 2.182.

But as they say, it isn’t how you start but how you finish. Well, there weren’t any no no’s on the resume, but yesterday, he finished, with “Zero Regrets.”

Curtis Montague Schilling managed to live the Major League dream for 20 years. When it was all said and done, his 216 – 146 record was certainly more impressive than his ominous start—but even that doesn’t tell the story; nor does the 3116 in 3261 innings.

Schilling is defined by what he managed to do against the best of the best. In his career, whether it was against the 1993 Blue Jays, a team which had three guys that are either in the Hall of Fame or certainly belong, or the 2001 Yankee, a modern dynasty while Schilling was at his best.

On raw regular season numbers, there are places that Schilling is short of the magic stats. There are also other places where he clearly measures up to the greatest the game has ever seen.

Just to make everyone happy, let’s break down a few stats that people think are important and a few that are over looked. Before I make the intangibles’ arguments that make the sports writers and traditionalist turn green, although that shade is probably envy, I will lay out the stats.

I think, for instance, his strikeout total 3116 is a major plus. That total put him 13th on the all time strike out list, 85 whiffs ahead of Pedro Martinez and one behind “The Immortal” Bob Gibson. There are only 15 members of the 3000 K Club. Of all the retired members, only Bert Blyleven is not in the Hall of Fame.

People point to the fact that he has no triple crowns, he has zero no hitters, and he didn’t manage to collect a Cy Young.

He has 216 wins which puts him a solid but not staggering 80th all time.

That to most people would be a minus, but when compared to his contemporaries, he’s only bested by other future hall of famers. Wins to me is more of a team stat anyway—measuring a team and not individual effort, but the sports writers do love to bring them up.

But I would argue that you have to compare people within their Era. If you take those three letters and look at Earned Run Average, you have a guy that was a full run better than the league average for his career.

Schilling has a career number of 3.46 vs. a league average of 4.41. That being said, Randy Johnson has a 3.26 for his career, in that span.

“The Professor” Greg Maddux, a contemporary they’ll most certainly open the doors to on the first ballot put up a 3.16, talk about a staggering stat in the middle of the dubbed Steroid Era.

There is another set of stats, during Schilling’s career, which struck me when I started to sort through all the accolades. I knew the wins number would be what is held against him. But what about the WHIP? You know the one that stat geeks everywhere run to as the measure of a man or a pitcher in this case.
Author Poll Results
Wait Until You’ve Read the Entire Article to Vote, Hall of Famer or not?
•    Yes, Schilling derves enshirement
66.7%
•    No, Schilling didn’t do enough
33.3%
•    Total votes: 3

“The Professor’s” control was legendary, better than everyone else of his time. It had to be right? He couldn’t break a pane of glass but managed to post a 3.16 ERA and the 10th best strikeout total of all time (3371). Maddux for all his control has a career WHIP of 1.143 and a strikeout to walks ration of 3.37.

What if we look at a couple of Future Hall of Fame pitchers and a hurler that I feel to be the best of the best over the last six to eight years?

WHIP                        K/BB
Greg Maddux          1.143                         3.37
Randy Johnson        1.167                         3.27
Pedro Martinez        1.051                         4.15
Roy Halladay          1.208                          3.06
Curt Schilling          1.137                         4.38

Only Pedro has a better walk and hits/innings pitched, and no one on that list has had better strikeouts to walks ratio. By the way, he’s not just the best on that list, but the best of all time amongs pitchers with more than 200 wins.

But the reason that Schilling will enter Cooperstown isn’t because of the regular season. I know it sounds amazing to say that about a guy that won more than 15 or more games eight times in his career; he won more than 20 or more four times.

The truth of the matter is the playoffs. When it matters the most, Schilling took his game up another level. I can hear the collective groans of the sports writing establishment, especially after Schilling managed to drop this major announcement on the public via his blog 38pitches.com.

But the playoff facts are what they are. He took three different cities to the World Series—that is every single team he put on a uniform for went to the World Series at least once. When he was asked to take the ball in his first National League Championship Series, all that Schilling did was go 0 – 0 in two starts, which is a shame considering his 1.69 ERA and 19 strikeouts over 16 innings.

You want to know why wins are a bad statistic to measure a pitcher. Look at that line, he allowed 11 hits and five walks over 16 innings.

He managed a WHIP of 1.00 against an Atlanta team that had Terry Pendleton, Fred McGriff, David Justice, Ron Gant, Otis Nixon, and a short stop in Jeff Blauser that batted over .300 and knocked out 15 homeruns. When the Phillies played the best teams in baseball, Schilling surrendered three runs in two starts, with a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.8.

He followed that up with a World Series effort in an elimination game that still stands as an all-time great performance. Let’s set the stage.

In a 2 -1 series, the Blue Jays hung a six spot on the Phil’s in the 8th inning to come back from five down and take a 3 – 1 series lead. Then in game five, against a lineup of now and future Hall of Fame in guys like Rickey Henderson, Paul Molitor, and Roberto Alomar.

Never mind a supporting cast that included John Olerud, a 24 year old first basemen that batted .363 that year, Devon White, one of the league premier leadoff hitters, and Joe Carter, who would later create one of sports’ most memorable moment.

Schilling walked to the mound in game five, and with his team’s hopes riding on his right arm, posted a remarkable five-hit shutout to give the Phillies another day to play in the fall of 1993.

He followed that up on 2001—at the age of 34 when most players are winding down a career—he started six of 17 playoff games (three of seven in the fall classic) and managed 48 innings or eight per start and an era of 1.13.

Give that a minute to sink in. He pitched three complete games, averaged more than seven or more complete in his other three starts, and posted a sub 1.15 era. Oh yeah, and struck out 56 in 48 innings just for good measure.

Now dare I measure the ability to “Shut up 55,000 people from New York” in 2004? In what was another elimination game for the Red Sox, we saw a guy march out to the top of the mound with his bloody Sox and pull the down trodden Fenway Faithful to the top of the mountain, not once, but twice.

He went and stepped up in Philly, where they had more losses than any other team in Major League history and changed the culture. He went to Arizona and with Randy Johnson grew success in the desert. He went to Boston, where as the sheriff, he managed to wrestle “The Curse of the Bambino” out of town.

In 11 postseasons, the Big Unit is 7 – 9 with an ERA of 3.50, “The Professor” Maddux is 11-14 with an ERA of 3.27, and “The Rocket” is 12 – 8 with a 3.75.

Schilling, when it matters most, is 11 – 2 with a 2.23. He managed 120 strikeouts vs. 25 walks.

He’s managed three World Series rings in only five postseason trips.

When it matters the most, Schilling was not just at his best; you could argue the best of all time. Cooperstown, isn’t a Hall of Most or a Hall of Stats. It’s a Hall of Fame, and the spot light has shown brightest. You knew Curt could not only rise to the challenge but dominate the moment. That’s why he’s Famous!

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