Key Additions: RHP Ramon Ramirez (trade with Royals), RHP Brad Penny (free agent from Dodgers), RHP John Smoltz (free agent from the Braves), OF Rocco Baldelli (free agent from Rays), RHP Takashi Saito (free agent from Dodgers)
Key Subtractions: RHP Mike Timlin (free agent, unsigned), 1B Sean Casey (retired), RHP Paul Byrd (free agent, unsigned), RHP Curt Schilling (retired), C Kevin Cash (free agent, signed with the Yankees), OF Coco Crisp (traded to Royals), SS Alex Cora (free agent, signed with Mets).
A look at the lineup:
The Red Sox front office spent the first few months of the off season in hot pursuit of Free Agent 1B Mark Teixeira. Ultimately, long time nemesis, Uber Agent Scott Boras orchestrated a mega deal for Teixeira with the AL East rival New York Yankees.
Surprisingly, to some at least, the Red Sox did not pursue other high profile offensive free agents such as Adam Dunn. Instead the Theo Epstein and company decided to gamble on the return to health of David Ortiz and Mike Lowell and the continued improvement of young stars Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis.
Time will tell if the Sox were being pound wise or penny foolish.
Catcher: After a prolonged contract negotiation, free agent catcher and team captain Jason Varitek re-signed with the Red Sox. There are many Red Sox fans who believe that was not exactly a positive development as Varitek (.220 BA, 13 HR, 43 RBI .672 OPS) suffered through a terrible year at the plate. Long considered one of the best handlers of a pitching staff, Varitek’s defensive skill can no longer offset his weak hitting.
At this writing, prospect George Kottaras (.243 BA, 22 HR, 65 RBI at AAA Pawtucket) is slated to backup Varitek as well as serving as knuckleballer Tim Wakefield’s personal catcher. It would not surprise anyone if the Red Sox traded for a young catcher, if Kottaras cannot convince the team quickly, that he is the catcher of the future.
First Base: After losing out on Teixeira, the front office and fans could console themselves with the knowledge that rising star Kevin Youkilis will be playing the position. Youkilis (.312 BA, 29 HR, 115 RBI) finished third in the AL MVP race and played stellar defense. Had the Sox landed Teixeira, Youkilis would likely have moved back to his natural 3B position but given how well he fielded the position last season before Mike Lowell’s injury forced him back to third, Manager Terry Francona would like to see Youk stay on the left side of the infield for the entire season.
Last year’s regular season backup 1B Sean Casey has retired but Mark Kotsay is due back from off season surgery in early May. Kotsay played a surprisingly crisp defensive 1B during last season’s post season and will likely be the main backup at 1B.
Second Base: Back in early May of 2007, then-rookie 2B Dustin Pedroia’s batting average was hovering around the .150 mark. It’s hard to believe that a player could make the trek from being a prime candidate for demotion to 2007 AL Rookie of the Year to 2008 AL MVP but that is precisely what Pedroia did. The diminutive but scrappy 2B put up an impressive array of offensive stats including a .326 BA, a surprising 17 HR and 83 RBI. Given Pedroia’s competitive disposition and quest to prove wrong, anyone who ever had a disparaging word to say about him, one can imagine he continue to improve.
No slouch in the field, Dustin was named as AL Gold Glove winner at 2B. The backup situation is muddled by the injury to SS Julio Lugo. It was thought that Jed Lowrie (.248/2 HR/ 46 RBI) would fill the utility role freed up by the departure of Alex Cora but he will now open the season in the starting SS role. Veteran utility IF Nick Green is the likeliest candidate to fill the utility role until Lugo’s return.
Shortstop: There was an interesting battle brewing in Spring Training for the starting SS role, until Lugo suffered a knee injury and had to undergo surgery. Now it seems certain that Lowrie will be the opening day SS. Even when he returns in late April, Lugo is not assured of winning back the starting job based on his lackluster offensive performance (.268/1 HR/22 RBI) in 2008.
Third Base: Losing starting 3B Mike Lowell to a season ending hip injury at mid season stripped the Red Sox of one of their leading offensive run producers and also a steady, if unspectacular defensive 3B. Following off season surgery, Lowell was held out of exhibition games until late March. Reports have been positive and the Red Sox seem cautiously optimistic about Lowell’s health for the 2009 season. Even with his injury, Lowell managed to crank out 17 HRs and 73 RBIs last season.
Lowrie and Youkilis can each play 3B should Lowell need a rest from time to time or suffer another injury.
Left Field: Jason Bay (.286/ 31 HR/ 101 RBI) filled in admirably for one of the greatest hitters of his time, Manny Ramirez following Ramirez’ shameful exit from Boston at last season’s trading deadline. Despite the acrimony at the end of his Red Sox career, Manny is still loved by a segment of Red Sox fans. A slow start on Bay’s part may result in him being the target of the fans’ disappointment at the loss of Manny.
Center Field: Rookie CF Jacoby Ellsbury’s offensive numbers (.280/ 9 HR/ 47 RBI) weren’t bad for his first full MLB season. Yet, there was a general sense that Ellsbury’s performance was disappointing, especially following his hot post season performance in 2007. The Red Sox would like Ellsbury to hit the ball on the ground more and improve on his .336 OBP. At some point, Ellsbury is going to have to accept that he is more leadoff batter than he is a #3 hitter.
Right Field: The ever-fragile JD Drew started only 109 games in 2008 due to injury (is anyone surprised?) and continues to be one of the more maddening players in MLB. When he is on the field the guy is a prolific hitter ( as his .927 OPS will attest) but he just has never been able to remain healthy for an entire season.
With the uncertainty surrounding the health Lowell and David Ortiz, the Sox need a healthy Drew in RF for 140-150 games. Things don’t look good in that regard since Drew has been complaining of back stiffness since he beginning of Spring Training. Free Agent OF and Rhode Island native , Rocco Baldelli will back up all three of the OF spots. Baldelli has not exactly been the picture of health over the past few season but received a positive diagnosis of his past medical issues, having been found to be suffering from Channelopathy. The good news is that his doctors feel that the disease is controllable with medication and Baldelli hopes to see much more action in 2009 than he did in 2008.
Designated Hitter: David Ortiz battled the injury bug as well in 2008, as a wrist injury sidelined him for seven weeks and continued to affect his swing once he returned. Ortiz is still the key component to the Red Sox offense, especially with Ramirez off enjoying the sunshine in Manny-wood. With a healthy, more fit Ortiz (he was clearly overweight last season but came to this Spring Training looking as if he spent his off season with Richard Simmons and Jared from Subway) prospects for a return to Ortiz’ pre 2008 numbers seem bright.
It’s as simple as this. With a healthy Ortiz, the Red Sox batting order is murder on opposing pitching staffs. Without him, they are a gritty group who will battle the opposing pitcher on every AB, but one that will not be nearly as intimidating as the 2004-2007 lineups that were among the best in MLB.
A look at the pitching:
Starters: Staff Ace Josh Beckett was not able to replicate his dominating 2007 performance in 2008. Reportedly, Beckett was not in the best of condition when he reported to Fort Myers last February and got off on the wrong foot. His stats (12-10, 4.03 ERA, 172 Ks and 1.19 WHIP) were not all that bad but he struggled through many of his starts and just was not as sharp as he was in 2007.
Beckett suffered elbow and back injuries last season which contributed to his drop off in performance. All indications are that the big Texan is in excellent shape this year and has looked much more like his 2007 self this spring.
Daisuke Matsuzaka’s pitching line for 2008 is a study in contradictions, as were many of his starts. “Dice-K,” finished with an impressive 18-2 record and a 2.90 ERA. Cy Young stuff, right? Not so fast. Matsuzaka tends to run up his pitch counts early in the game and is prone to streaks of wildness (his 1.67 WHIP is testament to that) and seemed to be constantly pitching his way out of bases loaded jams. It’s hard to argue with an 18 win season but Matsuzaka must learn to pound the strike zone with more frequency if he is going to join the ranks of elite MLB starting pitchers. That said, most MLB teams would gladly slot Matsuzaka in the #2 slot in the rotation.
Jon Lester: One of the most inspiring sports stories to come along in some time, last season, Lester went from being best known as a cancer survivor to one of the best left handed starters in all of MLB. Lester (16-6, 3.21 ERA, 152 Ks) put to rest any doubts that may have existed regarding his stamina as he pitched a career high 210 1/3 innings in 2008. He was the team’s most consistent starting pitcher throughout last season.
Knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (10-11, 4.13 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) continues to be an effective back of the rotation starter at the age of 42. Despite a few nagging injuries over the past two seasons, Wake can be counted on to give the team 180+ innings.
The dentity of the fifth starter in the rotation is a bit uncertain at this writing. The Red Sox signed Brad Penny and John Smoltz, both of whom are coming off 2008 seasons lost to injury, as potential 4th or 5th starters. Smoltz was signed with the understanding that he would not be available until early June. It was hoped that Penny would be ready for duty early in the season.
Penny made his first Spring Training appearance at the end of March, pitched well and may be on target for a start on April 12th, the first day the Red Sox will require the service of a fifth starter. Smoltz is just beginning to throw bullpen sessions and is, as expected a couple of months away from joining the team.
Also in the picture is Clay Buchholz, a top pitching prospect who spent most of last season in AAA after a frighteningly ineffective (2-9, 6.72 ERA, 1.76 WHIP) early season performance with the big club. After an off season in which he was rumored to be on the block as the Red Sox reportedly discussed a trade for one of the Texas Rangers young catchers, Buchholz has bounced back nicely and this looks very much like the pitcher who threw a no hitter in one of his first MLB starts in 2007.
The Red Sox, to date, have been unwilling to give up on Buchholz’ considerable potential. That could change, especially if Varitek starts slowly, prompting the Sox to re-open discussions with Texas. The Rangers will likely demand Buchholz in return for one of the team’s young catching prospects.
To further complicate the starting rotation picture, second year pitcher Justin Masterson, thought to be targeted for a bullpen role again this season, has pitched well enough to remain in contention for a starting spot.
All of this may cause the Red Sox coaching staff to suffer a few sleepless nights but one would imagine the rest of MLB would have little sympathy for the Sox since few other teams count a pitching surplus among their problem areas.
Bullpen: The Red Sox have, on paper, one of, if not the deepest bullpens in all of baseball.
Jonathan Papelbon has been money during his three seasons as the Red Sox closer. Last season he was as dominating as ever (41 Saves, 0.95 WHIP) throughout most of the year but he seemed less effective late in the season and in the post season. Papelbon admitted during the off season that he had next-to-nothing left in his tank at the end of the season. Francona and pitching coach John Farrell are going to have to be mindful of scaling back Papelbon’s innings in 2009 if they want to avoid a breakdown.
With that in mind, The Sox signed Free Agent relief pitcher, ex-Dodger Takashi Saito. The Japanese import notched 81 saves in his three year stint as closer in Los Angeles but suffered a season ending elbow injury in 2008. Saito has looked sharp in his Spring Training appearances thus far in 2008 and may very well afford Francona the luxury of reducing Papelbon’s workload. Saito will also serve as the RH setup man.
Hideki Okajima (2.61 ERA, 23 Holds, 1.16 WHIP) continued to be a valuable left handed set up man last season and figures to remain in that role in 2008. Fellow left hander, Javier Lopez (2.43 ERA, 10 Holds, 1.35 WHIP) may find himself in a battle for a roster spot.
Boston added yet another dependable arm to the pen in the offseason when they traded OF Coco Crisp to the Kansas City Royals for Ramon Ramirez (2.64 ERA, 21 Holds, 1.23 WHIP). Ramirez is expected to provide middle relief along with Boston native, Manny Delcarmen.
Masterson will likely return to the bullpen, making this one of the deepest MLB relief corps in recent memory.
Outlook: The Red Sox enter 2009 as the favorite to win the American League East. The pitching staff is the deepest in MLB and the offense, even with the injury/age related concerns regarding Lowell and Ortiz, is still one of the best in baseball.
The bad news for the rest of the American League is that, with all the young talent that has already made its way to Fenway Park from the farm system, there is more on the way. It is very likely that top prospect 1B Lars Anderson (Baseball America’s #17th ranked MLB Prospect) and SP Michael Bowden (1-0, 3.60 ERA with Red Sox in 2008) will make it to the big club before the season draws to an end.
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Prediction: The Prediction here is that the Red Sox win the AL East after a season long, three way battle with the Yankees and Rays. As much as the Yankees have improved themselves with their free agent signings and as much young talent on Tampa’s roster, the Red Sox pitching is too deep and the batting order still too dangerous.
I see a 95-67 regular season record for the Red Sox who must be considered among a handful of favorites to win the 2009 World Series.
This is a typical case of mental masterbation. Red Sox won the AL east? In your masterbation dreams!
Tom is Obviously a Yankers Fan who needs to use Spellcheck!