2009 Houston Astros Preview
March 30, 2009 by Mike Clay
Filed under 2009 Season Previews, Baseball News, Extra Bases, Houston Astros
In an effort to get every preview done by the season opener, you may notice that some of the team previews will be of the shorter variety. With some of the “extra information” not included, this should make for an easier read. Enjoy!
Key Additions: Mike Hampton, Jason Michaels, Ivan Rodriguez
Key Subtractions: Randy Wolf, Ty Wigginton, Mark Loretta, Brad Ausmus
A look at the lineup:
CA – Ivan Rodriguez was signed late in the off-season and will be the team’s starting catcher. Humberto Quintero will see plenty of action as the backup, while J.R. Towles will start the season in the minors.
1B – Lance Berkman is back as the everyday first baseman and three-hitter after an outstanding 2008 campaign. Darin Erstad will be the backup.
2B – Kazuo Matsui will lead off and man second base. Edwin Maysonet and Jason Smith add depth.
SS – Miguel Tejada will be the starter at shortstop and will hit fifth. Maysonet and Smith are the backups.
3B – Geoff Blum will open the season as the starting third baseman and will likely bat sixth. Chris Johnson will be the primary backup and Smith adds depth.
LF – Carlos Lee will be back as the starter in left field and will hit cleanup. Newcomer Jason Michaels will back him up.
CF – Michael Bourn is back as the everyday centerfielder and will hit eighth. Reggie Abercrombie and Erstad are the reserves.
RF – Hunter Pence will hit second and is the starter in right field. Erstad and Abercrombie add depth.
A look at the pitching:
Starters – Roy Oswalt is the undisputed ace of the rotation. The rest of the rotation is less than impressive, but Wandy Rodriguez is respectable. Brian Moehler, Mike Hampton <enter injury joke here>, and Russ Ortiz round out the rotation. Jose Capellan, Felipe Paulino, Alberto Arias, Brandon Backe, and Clay Hensley are also under contract and will compete for starts.
Relievers – Jose Valverde is back as the closer. LaTroy Hawkins, Geoff Geary, Doug Brocail, Wesley Wright, Tim Byrdak, Chris Sampson, and Jeff Fulchino will battle it out for innings in relief.
Outlook:
There is not much to like if you’re an Astros’ fan. The team did not improve during the off-season and the pitching staff is a mess. There are a few good hitters in town, but that won’t be enough to keep this team competitive.
Prediction:
The Astros will give the Pirates a run for their money for the basement position in the NL Central. Expect a record near 69-93.
You guys are smoking some good stuff over there. To say the Astros will win only 69 games proves you people only watch ESPN and have not paid attention to the NL Central. The ONLY club that MILDLY improved was Chicago. Houston, as you don’t recall, had the best record after the all-star break last season. AND they won 85 games. This team isn’t the ‘27 Yankees, but they did not regress 16 games. Don’t be stupid. And don’t make the mistake of looking at the spring standings and making a prediction off of that, as the Pirates are right up there at the top and the defending world series champions are only 2 games better than the Astros. You guys are pathetic.
Look for the Astros to win 85-92 games and snag the wild card or division in the last 10 days of the season. Wankers.
You can’t even get close on the opening day roster so why should anybody believe you can predict how this team will perform on the field?
Thanks for taking the time to comment. It is unfortunate that you had to bring your smartass attitudes over here to RBI Magazine.
Dylan, assuming where I got my information from is extremely ignorant. Although I shouldn’t feel obligated to address it, I’ll have you know that Spring Training record, ESPN analysis, and the ‘27 Yankees had nothing to do with my prediction. I’ll also have you know that widely recognized projection systems have the Astros near the bottom of the league. PECOTA, for example, has them at 67-95.
You will have a hard time convincing anyone that the Astros belong in the Wild Card discussion, but feel free to make a case. Just try to leave the “pathetic” and “stupid” remarks in elementary school where they belong.
Rodney, Feel free to explain your disagreements with my quick preview. I admit I’m not an Astros expert, but the Astros official website appears to agree with everything I wrote. The only exception, of course, appears to be that Capellan will lose the 5th rotation spot to Ortiz.
69 wins?!??!.. LoL.. every year you idiots (pundits and baseball “experts”) pick the Astros to totally stink and come in somewhere at the bottom of the division.. and every year you idiots are wrong…. never fails.. You guys should pull your heads out of the cubs butts. But if you didnt have your heads up the cubbies back side, I guess you wouldnt be real baseball pundits.
Astros 2009 Projections:
PECOTA: 67-95
CLAY: 69-93
CHONE: 72-90
THT: 73-89
Figure margin of error is a few games and it’s easy to see the consensus.
Punidts arent really idiots, they are just really out of touch with Houston baseball… seems like pundits and experts dont know much outside of Cubs, Yanks, Sox… I am pretty tired of hearing opinions from guys that probably cant remember the last time they watched an Astros game
John,
I have 2 reactions to that statement.
1 – PECOTA, Chone, THT, etc. derive their projections from statistical evidence and probabilities based on those statistics. The Astros are treated the same as every other major league baseball team. Location of the ballpark and TV viewership has nothing to do with it.
2 – No one is forcing you to agree with my opinion. However, the fact that my opinion coincides with the consensus tells me that you should probably change your tone.
You guys have been quick to bash my prediction, but how about backing up your own? I’m interested to see how you figure that Houston can stack up with the Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, and even the Reds.
All I am saying is… YALL HAVE BEEN WRONG ABOUT THE ASTROS 5 or 6 SEASONS IN A ROW!!!! I appreciate all your stats and calculations… but often, very often…. they dont pan out.
I just came across more information for you guys to ponder:
This is how well PECOTA projected the Astros the last few years.
Year – Actual Wins – Projected Wins – Error
2003-87-89 +2
2004-92-94 +2
2005-89-80 -9
2006-82-81 -1
2007-73-80 +7
2008-86-73 -13
So, there you have it. PECOTA underestimated the Astros by a grand total of 12 games over the last 6 seasons, an average of 2 games a season. That is hardly anything to get worked up about.
Furthermore, season-by-season analysis proves the anti-Astros theory wrong, as PECOTA actually overrated the team 3 of the last 6 seasons.
All that said, the odds are pretty good that the Astros finish within 5 games of 67-95?
Interesting stuff to ponder.. the avg of 2 games a season doesnt quite capture the fact that PECOTA 13 games last season. Sure, there are some “ifs” involved.. but I think ( and I can be critical of the Stros) the Astros could win over 80
Addressing this more as a fan and less as a writer….
Well, let’s be honest. The Astros should’ve been sellers at the deadline. Instead they made silly trades (Randy Wolf, for example) and tried to compete. Sure that helped them win a few extra games down the stretch, but they were never better than the NL’s best teams. Ed Wade’s strategy backfired as winning 86 games and missing the playoffs is worth as much as winning 50 games and missing the playoffs.
Ed Wade was an idiot in Philly and he is bad news for the Astros.
A phillies team with Ed Wades pieces just won a world series… The astros needed some changes and Hunsicker and Purpura, the two previous Astros GMs could not bring themselves to make those changes. We, astro fans, desperately needed a different team. Not many people remember that even the Astros World Series year they were one of the worst offensive teams in the league… I remember if they got down by 3 or 4 runs.. you could turn the TV off. They led the league in being shut out. They were not fun to watch.
We needed change badly… Wade might make some questionable moves, but more is lost by in-decision than wrong decision.
Face it the Astros “STINK”, they need to start improving their minor league system which use to be one of the best. They have gotten away from that and it has come back to haunt them. You cannot win when you have only two good bats in the line up. Miguel Tejada does not have the power he had when he was on the juice and Carlos is hot and cold. Pence and Berkman are the only two good bats you have. Roy Oswalt is the only ace in the the rotation. Wandy Rodriguez is ok, but not great, the rest of the pitcures are a joke. The only way they will do good is if the other teams choke
Houston Astros should be always competitive enough to keep pace with the others. I really like them; they’ve always been my favourite teams in MLB. Just read about them here:
http://www.astrosportal.com
Looks like Mike “Holier Than Thou” Clay is off in his projection. How can he call himself a writer when all he does is quote some statistics produced by a machine without accounting for the Astros’ strong second half performances nearly year after year?
As an avid baseball fan I am tired of all these self-proclaimed experts dishing out their swill every spring while fans who pay attention to the nuances and HEART of the game could predict them better. That’s why they play the game, because heart wins games, not statistics.
Mike, I would respect your opinion if you included some in-depth analysis about personnel (such as Kaz Matsui’s frequent injuries or about the increasing age being a factor that could cause the team to under perform).
I mean dude, your predictions are so off it’s not even funny. A rapidly declining Reds team to finish 2nd and not the Cubs, Cardinals or Brewers?
Also, I’m glad to see that you jumped on the Rays bandwagon so quickly. You and everyone over at ESPN.
Analysis is more than X’s O’s and #s buddy, it’s about knowing a team’s heart and previous track record. You missed the mark badly here.