Comments on: 2009 Houston Astros Preview

By: Dave

Dave — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 20:01:22 +0000

Looks like Mike “Holier Than Thou” Clay is off in his projection. How can he call himself a writer when all he does is quote some statistics produced by a machine without accounting for the Astros’ strong second half performances nearly year after year?

As an avid baseball fan I am tired of all these self-proclaimed experts dishing out their swill every spring while fans who pay attention to the nuances and HEART of the game could predict them better. That’s why they play the game, because heart wins games, not statistics.

Mike, I would respect your opinion if you included some in-depth analysis about personnel (such as Kaz Matsui’s frequent injuries or about the increasing age being a factor that could cause the team to under perform).

I mean dude, your predictions are so off it’s not even funny. A rapidly declining Reds team to finish 2nd and not the Cubs, Cardinals or Brewers?

Also, I’m glad to see that you jumped on the Rays bandwagon so quickly. You and everyone over at ESPN.

Analysis is more than X’s O’s and #s buddy, it’s about knowing a team’s heart and previous track record. You missed the mark badly here.

By: Louise

Louise — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 15:53:42 +0000

Houston Astros should be always competitive enough to keep pace with the others. I really like them; they’ve always been my favourite teams in MLB. Just read about them here:

http://www.astrosportal.com

By: John

John — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 12:29:30 +0000

Face it the Astros “STINK”, they need to start improving their minor league system which use to be one of the best. They have gotten away from that and it has come back to haunt them. You cannot win when you have only two good bats in the line up. Miguel Tejada does not have the power he had when he was on the juice and Carlos is hot and cold. Pence and Berkman are the only two good bats you have. Roy Oswalt is the only ace in the the rotation. Wandy Rodriguez is ok, but not great, the rest of the pitcures are a joke. The only way they will do good is if the other teams choke

By: John

John — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 21:46:27 +0000

A phillies team with Ed Wades pieces just won a world series… The astros needed some changes and Hunsicker and Purpura, the two previous Astros GMs could not bring themselves to make those changes. We, astro fans, desperately needed a different team. Not many people remember that even the Astros World Series year they were one of the worst offensive teams in the league… I remember if they got down by 3 or 4 runs.. you could turn the TV off. They led the league in being shut out. They were not fun to watch.
We needed change badly… Wade might make some questionable moves, but more is lost by in-decision than wrong decision.

By: Mike Clay

Mike Clay — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 21:10:25 +0000

Addressing this more as a fan and less as a writer….

Well, let’s be honest. The Astros should’ve been sellers at the deadline. Instead they made silly trades (Randy Wolf, for example) and tried to compete. Sure that helped them win a few extra games down the stretch, but they were never better than the NL’s best teams. Ed Wade’s strategy backfired as winning 86 games and missing the playoffs is worth as much as winning 50 games and missing the playoffs.

Ed Wade was an idiot in Philly and he is bad news for the Astros.

By: John

John — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 21:03:23 +0000

Interesting stuff to ponder.. the avg of 2 games a season doesnt quite capture the fact that PECOTA 13 games last season. Sure, there are some “ifs” involved.. but I think ( and I can be critical of the Stros) the Astros could win over 80

By: Mike Clay

Mike Clay — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 20:33:57 +0000

I just came across more information for you guys to ponder:

This is how well PECOTA projected the Astros the last few years.

Year – Actual Wins – Projected Wins – Error
2003-87-89 +2
2004-92-94 +2
2005-89-80 -9
2006-82-81 -1
2007-73-80 +7
2008-86-73 -13

So, there you have it. PECOTA underestimated the Astros by a grand total of 12 games over the last 6 seasons, an average of 2 games a season. That is hardly anything to get worked up about.

Furthermore, season-by-season analysis proves the anti-Astros theory wrong, as PECOTA actually overrated the team 3 of the last 6 seasons.

All that said, the odds are pretty good that the Astros finish within 5 games of 67-95?

By: John

John — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 19:59:18 +0000

All I am saying is… YALL HAVE BEEN WRONG ABOUT THE ASTROS 5 or 6 SEASONS IN A ROW!!!! I appreciate all your stats and calculations… but often, very often…. they dont pan out.

By: Mike Clay

Mike Clay — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 19:27:41 +0000

John,

I have 2 reactions to that statement.

1 – PECOTA, Chone, THT, etc. derive their projections from statistical evidence and probabilities based on those statistics. The Astros are treated the same as every other major league baseball team. Location of the ballpark and TV viewership has nothing to do with it.

2 – No one is forcing you to agree with my opinion. However, the fact that my opinion coincides with the consensus tells me that you should probably change your tone.

You guys have been quick to bash my prediction, but how about backing up your own? I’m interested to see how you figure that Houston can stack up with the Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, and even the Reds.

By: John

John — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 19:09:47 +0000

Punidts arent really idiots, they are just really out of touch with Houston baseball… seems like pundits and experts dont know much outside of Cubs, Yanks, Sox… I am pretty tired of hearing opinions from guys that probably cant remember the last time they watched an Astros game