2009 Minnesota Twins Preview

Key Additions: Luis Ayala (RP), Jason Jones (RP), Joe Crede (3B)

Key Subtractions: Adam Everett (SS), Eddie Guardado (RP), Dennys Reyes (RP), Randy Ruiz (DH)

A look at the lineup:
The 2009 version of the Minnesota Twins will look very familiar. Comparing this season’s projected starting lineup to the one seen most often last year, there is just one difference—Joe Crede in at third, Brian Buscher to the bench. A majority of the starting slots are in stone, but there are a few key position battles to keep an eye on. The most notable will be in the outfield, where Denard Span, Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer, and Carlos Gomez will duke it out for three spots.

Catcher: Joe Mauer enters his fifth full season in the majors as one of the best catchers in the game. The 25-year old lefty put up a .378 wOBA last season, which ranked him second among catchers to only Brian McCann, and was 28th best in the majors. It is unlikely that Mauer will appear in 146 games like he did last season, but he will be just as good, if not better, when he is in the game. Last season, Mauer increased his walk rate, significantly lowered his strike out rate, saw his OBP jump over 30 points, raised his slugging percentage 25 points, and saw a 3% increase in his line drive rate. His .350 BABIP is well higher than league average, but in Mauer’s case, it’s better to compare that to his .342 career BABIP than the league average. He will bat in the three-spot again in 2009. Veteran Mike Redmond will return as Mauer’s backup and should see more plate appearances than he did in 2008.

First Base: 2006 American League MVP Justin Morneau returns to first base and to the cleanup spot. After hitting 30-plus homeruns in back-to-back seasons, Morneau hit just 23 last season, and although he wasn’t quite as productive as his MVP season, he was better in 2008 than he was in 2007. An interesting statistic to keep an eye on if you’re a Morneau fan is BABIP. In his four full seasons in the majors, it has fluctuated from .254 in 2005 to .335 his MVP season to .276 in 2007 to .318 last year. In those years, his other hitting statistics have mirrored his unstable BABIP. If his BABIP falls near his .296 career average, he is good for about 25 homers and OPS in the range of .850. If his BABIP fluctuates from .296, adjust those projections accordingly. Corner infielder Brian Buscher was the front runner for the third base job before the Crede signing and will now be the primary backup at first and third.

Second Base: 24-year old Alexi Casilla will return as the second baseman and is projected to hit in the two-spot. The switch-hitting Casilla appeared in 98 games for Minnesota last season and is expected to be the full time starter at second in 2009. He was not overly impressive at the plate or in the field and should be about league average this season. Despite stealing just 7 bases last season, Casilla has the speed to steal near 20 a year. Brendan Harris will be the primary backup at second and Matt Macri adds depth at both second and third.

Shortstop: Switch hitting Nick Punto will return as the primary shortstop and eight hitter, but Harris will likely press him for plate appearances. The 31-year old Punto spent a majority of the early portion of his career as a utilityman, but was about league average at the plate and very good in the field last season, cementing his spot in the everyday lineup. Punto’s 9.2 UZR was fifth best in the league among shortstops and his .324 wOBA was 15th best among shortstops with at least 300 plate appearances. A repeat of the .324 wOBA is unlikely, but he should be an average shortstop overall. Matt Tolbert will add depth to the position.

Third Base: Joe Crede was signed to man the hot corner and will likely hit mid-to-late in the order. The righty has appeared in just 180 games over the last two seasons due to back injuries, but when healthy, can provide production from the right side of the plate. Also a good fielder, a healthy Crede would be an upgrade to the Brian Buscher/Brendan Harris platoon that would’ve been in place had he not been signed. Crede likely won’t match his career high of 30 homers in 2006, but could hit 20 if he plays the full season. Buscher will be the primary backup at third and would be a capable starter if Crede misses a significant amount of action.

Left Field: Unless a trade is made, four players will share three spots in the outfield. In left, Denard Span will replace Delmon Young as the main man and is likely to bat leadoff. Span will also see action in center and right, which will open up plenty of plate appearances for the underachieving Young. Span did not field the ball particularly well in center field last season, but was good in 77 starts in right. He did not play any leftfield in 2008. At the plate, Span is a threat to steal near 30 bases and will look to repeat his .387 OBP from last season. He had a very odd split in 2008 in that he had an .873 OPS against lefties, but that number dropped to .795 against righties.

Young was acquired from Tampa Bay last season in a package that sent Matt Garza to the Rays. At this point in time, the Twins may be regretting that move, as Young has yet to live up to enormous expectations. He was terrible in the field last season and his career .322 wOBA is well below average. Still only 23 years of age, Young cannot yet be considered a bust, but he will need to show a lot of improvement in 2009 if he wants regular at-bats.

Center Field: Carlos Gomez will be the everyday centerfielder and will bat ninth. The righty was not very impressive at the plate in 2008, but made up for it with outstanding defense. In his first full major league season, Gomez had a .294 wOBA and a .657 OPS, but did manage 33 steals and a 15.4 UZR in center. Although Span will spell him from time to time, Gomez will likely approach the 153 games he appeared in last season. Jason Pridie adds depth to centerfield.

Right Field: Michael Cuddyer made a name for himself with a big 2006 campaign, but declined in 2007 before missing much of 2008 on the disabled list. Although the 30-year old Cuddyer is expected to begin the season as the primary right fielder, Span and Young will be on his tail for playing time. Cuddyer’s defense is less than impressive, but the full potential of his bat is intriguing. A repeat of the 24 homers and .370 wOBA from 2006 would be asking a lot, and numbers closer to 12 homers and a .339 wOBA are likely. He is projected to begin the season as the five hitter. Span was Cuddyer’s replacement in right last season and will spell him this season. Young played right field for Tampa, but was strictly a left fielder in 2008 for the Twins.

Designated Hitter: Jason Kubel will be the team’s designated hitter and, while he could see some action in right field, it is unlikely due to his horrid fielding abilities. The 26-year old lefty belted 20 homers last season and put up a .345 wOBA. He’s not worth very much as an outfielder, but he will help the team as strictly a designated hitter. Kubel’s .688 career OPS against lefties means that he will likely take a seat when a southpaw is on the hill.

A look at the pitching:
Like the team’s collection of position players, the pitching staff will look very familiar. The entire rotation, the closer, and a majority of the primary setup men are back in 2009.

Starters: When you have a rotation made up of five players no older than 27, the only logical thing to do is to give the oldest player the opening day nod. That appears to be what the Twins will do as righty Scott Baker is the consensus “ace” of the staff. A ton of people are listing Baker as a bust for 2009 due to a few peripherals that went his way last season, but he’s been relatively consistent in his 4 year career and more of what you saw in 2008 should be expected. His 3.45 ERA last season was a bit lower than his 3.79 FIP and 3.93 tRA, but coupled with his 3.82 FIP in 2005, 4.99 FIP in 2006, and 3.89 FIP, that tells me that a sub-4.00 ERA this season is a strong possibility. Baker isn’t going to be at the top of the charts in strikeouts and is prone to the long ball, but he doesn’t surrender walks and is one of the best in the league at getting opposing hitters to swing and miss.

Although he will likely be the third option in the rotation, Kevin Slowey is so comparable to Scott Baker that it is only logical to discuss him next. Also a righty, Slowey is prone to the long ball, doesn’t strike out a ton, and gets by with his ability to keep runners off the basepaths. Although he allows more homers than Baker and doesn’t get as many strikeouts, Slowey gives up less walks and induces more ground balls. Slowey will enter his second full season at the ripe age of 24 and should only improve over the next couple of seasons.

A few weeks ago I did a more thorough analysis of Kevin Slowey, which you can read here.

Southpaw Francisco Liriano is the most talented of the Twins’ pitchers and could easily be one of the league’s best pitchers for quite a while if everything comes together. Following a 2006 campaign that saw him burst onto the scene with a 12-3 record, 2.16 ERA and 144 strikeouts in 121 innings, Liriano needed Tommy John surgery, derailing his chances to prove he was the real deal in 2007. Liriano returned in 2008 and despite a slow start, managed a pretty solid 76 inning season. The lefty will enter 2009 at the age of 25 and will approach 200 innings for the first time in his career if he remains healthy.

26-year old lefty Glen Perkins and 27-year old righty Nick Blackburn round out the rotation. The 2009 campaign will be each player’s second full season as a major league starting pitcher. Perkins had an impressive 12-4 record in 2008, but his 5.14 FIP and 5.95 tRA show that his 4.41 ERA was very lucky. His BABIP and LOB% were about league average, but he doesn’t strike many people out and his homerun rate was one of the worst in the majors. Blackburn put up numbers similar to those of Perkins, but he was a bit more impressive. His 4.40 FIP and 4.86 tRA were quite a bit above his 4.05 ERA and, although he didn’t give up quite as many homeruns as Perkins, Blackburn also did not contribute much in the strikeout department. Both will need to improve in 2009.

Bullpen: Joe Nathan has recorded at least 36 saves each of the last five seasons and has proven to be one of the game’s best closers. During that span, Nathan has blown just 20 saves and has had an ERA above 1.88 just once.

The other bullpen roles will be determined in Spring Training. Boof Bonser, who was expected to be the long reliever, and Pat Neshek are both expected to miss the entire 2009 season due to injury. Jesse Crain returns and appears to have a leg up on eighth inning duties. That said, Jose Mijares was outstanding last September and also could get a shot at the role. Luis Ayala was signed to add depth and joins a bullpen that could also include Matt Guerrier, Craig Breslow, and Philip Humber. Former Yankee Jason Jones was selected in the Rule 5 draft and will make a push for a spot in the bullpen.

Outlook:
You would have a hard time convincing me that the Twins are any worse than the team that won 88 games last season. They subtracted a few role players and added a few back. Speaking of additions, the Joe Crede addition could pay dividends if he stays healthy. The Twins were a poor defensive team in 2008, which will need improvement if the club wants to maximize the potential of its young, talented rotation. The lineup is very balanced with speedsters such as Gomez and Span and power bats such as Morneau, Crede, and Kubel. The catalyst, of course, will be the reliable Joe Mauer, who is one of the game’s finest hitters. Big rebound seasons from Young and Cuddyer could really make the Twins’ offense very dangerous. The pitching staff is a bit unproven, but the top three of Baker, Liriano, and Slowey should be even better than they were in 2008. The bullpen doesn’t jump out at you, but it should be good enough to preserve a decent amount of the team’s leads.

Prediction:
Although this team has the potential to make a push for the AL pennant, they play in a very tough division that could include three other playoff contenders in Cleveland, Chicago, and Detroit. As if winning the division wasn’t hard enough, the teams that fall short of the division title will need to battle it out with clubs from the eastern division for the wild card. That will not be easy. The Twins will win 89 games, but will again fall a game or two short of both the AL Central title and the AL wild card.

Sources: www.fangraphs.com, www.cbssportsline.com