Key Additions: Pat Burrell (OF-DH), Matt Joyce (OF), Gabe Kapler (OF), Jason Isringhausen (RP), Joe Nelson (RP), Brian Shouse (RP)
Key Subtractions: Edwin Jackson (SP), Cliff Floyd (DH), Eric Hinske (OF), Rocco Baldelli (OF), Jonny Gomes (OF-DH), Trever Miller (RP)
A look at the lineup:
Catcher: Last season, Dioner Navarro took a major step forward for the Rays, becoming a franchise catcher. In 120 games, he hit .295 while knocking in 54 runs from a normally dry position. Navarro’s presence behind the plate is the real key for Tampa, as he helped lead a very young pitching staff to the World Series in 2008. His catcher’s earned run average was below four, an amazing feat being in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox. Behind Navarro is capable backup Shawn Riggans who appeared in 44 games last year.
First Base: Carlos Pena was an afterthought before the 2006 season, but 46 homers later in ’07, he became the comeback player of the year. Last season, his numbers took a hit, as his OPS dipped from 1.038 to .871 and his average slid 35 points. He still hit 30-plus homers and knocked in 100-plus runs, which is all you can ask from a guy who played just 18 games in 2006. He’ll give you the power, but Pena does strike out a ton.
Second Base: In 2008, there was a position change at second base for Tampa Bay. BJ Upton moved to the outfield and Akinori Iwamura switched from third to accommodate stud Evan Longoria. The move went off without a hitch. Iwamura committed just seven errors at second, tied for third base in baseball among starters. Aki is a pro hitter, leading the Rays with 172 hits last season. He’s as steady as they come. If he needs a breather, Willy Aybar or Ben Zobrist can step in.
Shortstop: Jason Bartlett took over as the everyday shortstop last year and was stellar. With the stick, Bartlett doesn’t give you power (just one home run in the regular season, one in the playoffs) but he does provide an adequate bat at the bottom of the order. Speed is the name of his game, as he swiped 20 bags in ’08. Bartlett’s fielding is just ok, as he committed 16 errors last year and was in the bottom half of the majors in fielding percentage. However, Bartlett fits with the Rays well and is once again their starter for 2009.
Third Base: This is one position the Rays won’t have to worry about for a decade or so. Evan Longoria is one of the brightest stars in all the game, and last season he put his name on the map as one of the top third basemen in the game. He missed more than a month during August and September with a broken wrist, but still hit 22 home runs on the year in just 122 games. The AL Rookie of the Year slugged a healthy .531, 8th best in the AL. Longoria is going to continue to take strides forward, and it’s scary to see where he can end up in a few years. He has 40 home run power and could knock in 100-plus runs for a long, long time. Who’s the backup? Doesn’t matter, because this is his team.
Left Field: One of the most enigmatic players in baseball is Carl Crawford. The speedy left fielder has stolen 50 or more bases four times in his career, but dealt with injuries last season that allowed him to play in just 109 games. The hand injury he suffered healed just in time for him to be back for the playoffs, but his numbers had been suffering all year as his average dipped into the .270’s for the first time in his career. Crawford has a ton of talent and could hit for more power, but can’t seem to harness it. Expect 15 homers, 75 RBI’s, 40 steals and some great defense. That’s good enough for Joe Maddon, I’m sure.
Center Field: BJ Upton is one of the premier outfielders in the game today. However, he may not be ready for the start of the 2009 season. Upton had offseason shoulder surgery and has not yet participated in Spring Training as of this writing. Last year, Upton struggled with the power numbers, hitting just nine homers, down from 24 in ’08. He did steal 44 bases and although the homers were low, he still hit 37 doubles, meaning he has some pop. He might feel the heat to get back soon, because his backup, Fernando Perez, dislocated his wrist and his out three months. There is a hole in center right now, and it may not be filled for a while in Tampa.
Right Field: Right field has always been up for grabs with the Rays, but they are hoping that will change in 2009 after the acquisition of Matt Joyce. Last season, the Rays had five players start 8 or more games in right field, not exactly a consistent earmark. Joyce comes over from Detroit in a deal for starter Edwin Jackson, and with him comes a lot of promise. However, he will be feeling the heat from incumbent Gabe Gross, newcomer Gabe Kapler, and backup Justin Ruggiano. When you have two Gabe’s on the roster, you’d better look out. Joyce has a battle ahead, but the 24-year old is definitely an up and comer.
A look at the pitching:
Starters: Wow. Where can you start with this Rays pitching staff that became one of the best in all of baseball. It was all about consistency in ’08 with the Rays staff, as all five starters has between 11 and 14 wins on the season and all had ERA’s between 3.50 and 4.50. They have since dealt Edwin Jackson, but that’s ok with them, they have one of the best young pitchers in the world waiting in the wings in David Price.
Price is the prize of the Rays organization, and he showed why down the stretch last year by joining the Rays on their run to the World Series. The lefty pitched only 14 regular season innings, but stuck around long enough to appear in five playoff games, including the game seven closeout win over Boston in the ALCS. So much promise follows Price, but when will they unleash him? We may see Jason Hammel in the meantime as the Rays may try to protect the fabulous arm of David Price.
The rest of the staff is the same, and damn good. James Shields became one of the best pitchers in the American League, winning 14 games and becoming the staff ace. He’s so good, he may be even better in 2009. Scott Kazmir is an incredible talent as well, but did not finish well in ’08. His final game, a World Series loss to the Phillies in the Game 5 clincher, Kazmir went just four innings. He has 20-win potential, and is still just 25. Scary indeed.
Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine round out the rotation, and both had fine seasons last year as well. Garza was brought over in a deal for Delmon Young from the Twins and flourished in his first season with Tampa. He won 11 games and had an ERA under four in 184 innings. Garza’s 1.24 whip placed him in the Top-15 in the AL. Sonnanstine went 13-9, walked just 37 batters in nearly 200 innings, and basically kept the team in it every time out. You can’t expect any more from a 4th or 5th starter.
Bullpen: Perhaps the biggest reason the Rays defied the odds and streaked to the AL Pennant was the work of their bullpen. Overall, their ERA as a ‘pen was 3.55, third best in the American League. The relievers also won them 31 games and combined for 52 saves. It just goes to show you how important it is to have a strong bullpen. The Rays rode these guys to the very end, and most of the crew will be back this year.
Troy Percival is the elder statesman and though he is up there in age and tends to break down, he still gives them the veteran presence this team needs. Grant Balfour throws heat, J.P Howell is the lefty, Dan Wheeler is another of the glue guys, and now they are joined by Brian Shouse (2.81 ERA with Milwaukee) and Jason Isringhausen (293 career saves). They are loaded once again, so look for a similar season out of this cast of characters.
Prediction:
No one, and I mean no one, saw this coming from the Tampa Bay Rays. They won 97 regular season games, plus eight more in the playoffs for 105 total. That’s an outrageous number for a team that had never won more than 70 in a season.
Expect a small step backwards, only because the Yankees and Red Sox are a little bit better. However, don’t sleep on these guys again, because the young talent is in place, and they can actually get better if and when David Price steps in. Evan Longoria will get a full season to show off his skills and the all-important pitching staff is a year older. I foresee 89 wins from the Rays in 2009, which may or may not be good enough for a playoff berth. The Rays, Yanks, and Sox will all beat up on each other, but who will come away with more victories? Too close to say, but the AL East is fun again.
Patrick Gallen is the Philadelphia Phillies Examiner for examiner.com. He also hosts his own internet radio show, “Basketball Roundup” on the Sports Journey Broadcast Network. The show airs Monday, Wednesday, and Friday from 10am-12pm est.
A lot of people who know baseball saw the Rays coming last year. They’re an organization that amassed a ton of young talent, filled in holes with unappreciated and bargain players, and put together a pitching staff of 4 aces under the age of 27. While they might not make the playoffs again, because of how good the AL East is (4 of the top 5 teams in baseball were there last year, and the Orioles are getting progressively better) they will definitely not be the afterthought they were.
Just a comment on Jason Bartlett’s defense, he may have had errors, but most are because his range was so good. He’s definitely a plus defender at short, and even in what was considered a bad year for him he was still well above league average based on advanced metrics.
What it boils down to is the same thing as last year. They are going to hit a ton and score a ton of runs. It all boils down to the boys in the pen. Will they be able to hold late inning leads and/or keep the team close late. So far this year they have a C grade I think.