2009 Philadelphia Phillies Preview

Key Additions: LF Raul Ibanez, SP Chan Ho Park, RP Gary Majewski, INF Marcus Giles, OF John Mayberry, INF Miguel Cairo, RP Jack Taschner

Key Subtractions: LF Pat Burrell, OF So Taguchi, RP Tom Gordon, SP Adam Eaton, RP Les Walrond

A look at the lineup:

Catcher: Carlos Ruiz struggled with the bat from day one in 2008, but if his past is any indicator, the guy can still hit.  He may never figure it out on this level, but Ruiz hit over .300 in triple-A just a few years ago, so the potential is there.  The question is: can he take a step forward, because last year he went in the wrong direction.  Chris Coste is the backup, and he can hit for some power, but he’ll be on bench duty all year.

First Base: Ryan Howard is a beast and everyone knows it.  The only problem is, can he cut out the long swoons and be on more of an even keel for an entire year? If he were to do that, his numbers would be astronomical.  However, Howard has not proven to be that sort of guy, so we’ll have to go with what we know.  And that’s power, strikeouts, and a few giant months tossed in.

Second Base: We didn’t realize it at the time, but Chase Utley’s hip injury was serious.  His power stroke struggled by mid-season and after demolishing pitching in the first half (25 homers) he finished with a limp.  Utley has deemed himself prepared for opening day in ’09, and that bodes well.  Expect a slow start as he kicks the cobwebs, but as the best second baseman in baseball, expect greatness for a whole year.

Shortstop: Jimmy Rollins was an MVP.  Then he wasn’t.  The 2008 season was much different for him after an ankle injury killed him in the beginning of the year.  However, Rollins is healthy and showed he’s ready after a spectacular World Baseball Classic.  Look for steals and hopefully for the power we once saw.  Plus, he’s awesome in the field, which is just as vital to the success of the Philies.

Third Base: It was a long year for Pedro Feliz, as a bad back derailed him early, and he never really got going. After four straight seasons of 20-plus homers in San Francisco, Feliz dropped a dud, smacking just 14 on the year.  His back is fixed, but is his bat?  Greg Dobbs and Eric Bruntlett did a fine job in his absence, but I would rather see Feliz for a whole year.

Left Field: Goodbye Pat Burrell, hello Raul Ibanez.  The former Mariner outfielder is a model of consistency, something Pat the Bat clearly was not.  Will it translate to the NL?  Ibanez is aging, but gracefully.  And he should have plenty of opportunities to knock in runs with this offense.

Center Field: Shane Victorino was marvelous in centerfield, playing stellar D and posting career highs in every offensive category.  He too was included in the WBC and now finds himself among the elite outfielders in entire game.  My they grow up quickly.

Right Field: Another blossoming outfielder is Jayson Werth.  He gave the Phillies fans a new cult hero to love after slamming 24 homers in just over 400 at-bats.  The potential is there for something special, but he needs to cut down on the K’s.

A look at the pitching:

Starters: Cole Hamels is the man.  Hollywood, as they call him in the clubhouse, won several postseason awards and made himself a household name.  The one problem with Hamels is his elbow, which has bothered him throughout the spring, but he should be ready for the first week.  The Phillies are hoping he can stay healthy again for a full year after pitching over 250 innings in 2008, by far the most he’s ever been on the mound.  Hamels did not get much run support last season, so if he can this year, it could mean 18 wins.

With the middle three spots of the rotation, you basically know exactly what you’ll get. Brett Myers will once again be the opening day starter (only by default) and will once again start the season as the biggest mystery.  He has all the potential in the world, but have we seen the best from him already?  Every year we wonder when Myers will win 16 or more games, and it has yet to happen.  Will this be the year? If the past is any factor, he will once again toy with the fans and give us around 13 wins.

Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton are also back in the middle of the solid rotation.  Moyer continues to defy the odds, but how much more is left in the tank?  He has had a so-so spring, so the talks of aging will be there all year, good or bad.  Blanton was terrific last season, and was a huge part of why the Phillies now have a second World Series title.  Joe the Pitcher will not wow you with his stuff, but he has a steady hand.  Expect about 13 wins and an ERA in the 4’s, but you can’t get much better as a number three or four.

Chan Ho Park is the wild card here.  He is the new fifth starter, and if his spring performance is an indicator of things to come, the Phils could have a steal.  Park beat out J.A. Happ for the final position and while his past is not pretty, it’s all about looking ahead.  His stuff is on point with a blazing fastball and beautiful off-speed pitches thrown in.  The Phillies just hope he can last a whole year, after last seasons debacle with Kyle Kendrick and Adam Eaton.  If not, Happ waits in the wings.

Bullpen: One of the best bullpens in baseball in 2008, the team will be hard pressed to provide a repeat performance this season. Brad Lidge did not blow a save and finished 4th in the Cy Young voting.  Ryan Madson was a new man in the set-up role he shared with lefty J.C. Romero.  Romero will be missing for 50 games after being suspended for using performance-enhancing drugs.

Scott Eyre, Clay Condrey, and Chad Durbin are all back and although they each had very good 2008 seasons, it’s going to be hard to get much more out of them.  As of this writing, we still await word as to who will join this crew.  J.A. Happ, Gary Majewski, and Jack Taschner are vying for two spots.  Happ would be used for long-relief, so there is a very good chance he stays.  Majewski and Taschner are a toss up at this point, with Majewski having been in camp longer.  Look for him to have the slight edge.

Prediction: It’s hard to go against a team that won it all the previous season.  So I won’t do that now.  They have basically the same team once again, so why can’t they win the NL East?  The Phillies and Mets will lock horns for 162 more games, but as of now the Phillies look to have the superior talent.  Look for 90 wins and another postseason invitation.