by Scott Butler
Vance Worley’s emergence on the MLB scene was easily one of the nicest surprises for the 2011 Phillies. But what kind of story will unfold for Worley in 2012? Worley went from mediocre minor leaguer to dominant major leaguer overnight, going 7-1 with a 2.02 ERA in his first 11 starts with the Phillies. Then he came back to Earth and finished with a 4.17 ERA in his final 12 games (2 in relief). So which character will Vance Worley play in 2012? Jekyll or Hyde?
A tale of two halves for Vance Worley
In comparing Worley’s first eleven games with his last twelve, even while his ERA was skyrocketing, in many ways Worley was improving.
His control numbers are one area that improved. Worley threw 63.6% of his pitches for strikes in his first 11 games and 65.2% in his last 12. His walks/9 decreased from 3.41 to 2.83, while his strikeouts per game rose from 6.69 to 9.85. That difference improved his strikeout to walk ratio from 2:1 (1.96) to nearly 4:1 (3.47).
If Worley was around the plate more, it stands to reason that hitters made more contact. But that was not the case. His contact percentage against went from 87.2% to 87.1% and their swing and miss percentage only changed from 43.1% to 41.6%.
Reasons for Worley’s inflated ERA
If his strikeouts increased, walks decreased, and batters were making contact just as much, what caused his ERA to double?
One reason is a spike in his home run rate. Worley’s home run/fly ball rate during his hot stretch was 2.6%, which is less than 3 home runs per 100 fly balls and way below the MLB average of 9.6%. Maybe Worley was effective at putting hitters off-balance to keep the ball in the yard, but it is impossible to maintain such an obscenely low rate.
A few percentage points makes a significant difference. If Worley had equaled the MLB average, he would have tossed 8 more home run balls. If each homer scored 1.5 runs, that equals 12 more runs and his ERA would have increased to 3.54.
Secondly, as Corey Seidman pointed out, Worley’s line drive percentage increased by 16 percentage points. Line drives result in hits 73% of the time versus 23% for grounders, which might explain why his batting average against rose from .199 to .278. More line drives indicate players were seeing the ball better. Worley might have thrown the same amount of strikes, but hitters were making better contact on the balls they hit.
The luck factor
It is also quite possible that more homers, more line drives, and a higher ERA is more of a factor of luck than anything else. Three stats and some sabermetrics help account for the luck factor.
LOB (Left On Base)% Worley’s LOB was 79.9% in the first half and 76.2% in the second half, both just slightly higher than the MLB average of 72.5%. Worley’s high LOB demonstrates his mental toughness and ability to handle adverse situations. It’s also good to see a reasonable number here, because too many weird things happen in the game of baseball to expect any pitcher to maintain an abnormally high rate.
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) BABIP is just what it sounds like, the opponents batting average on balls hit between the white lines. For the game of inches that baseball is, anything drastic on either side should raise a red flag. Worley’s BABIP went from .268 in his first 11 to .304 in his last 12. Both are within the range of the MLB average of .291 and it shows how his fortune may have changed throughout the year.
FIP (Fielding Indeterminate Pitching) FIP is supposed to be the ultimate non-luck stat, determining what a pitcher’s ERA would be in a luck-neutral environment by excluding defense and game situations. It theoretically tells you what a pitcher’s ERA should be. Worley’s FIP in his first 11 games was 3.36 and his late FIP was 3.29.
Vance Worley’s FIP seems to validate the rest of his numbers. We saw that even though his ERA skyrocketed, batters weren’t behaving much differently at the plate and Worley was walking less and striking out more. His FIP reflected that, suggesting that he was much more consistent than his ERA indicated. At the end of the day, Worley’s fortune evened out over the entire season and his overall ERA of 3.01 was close to his FIP of 3.32.
What does this all mean for Worley in 2012?
Worley maintained a consistent approach of throwing strikes and trusting the defense behind him. As much as we might be inclined to focus on his ballooning ERA and assume hitters figured him out, most of the stats don’t endorse that idea. There is no reason to expect Vance Worley can’t replicate his performance on the mound next season. If he brings the same game next season, we should see an ERA around 3.50.
However…
If Worley wants to remain in the big leagues, he needs another pitch. Worley caught batters looking on his two-seamer that ran back across the plate for called third strikes, but he didn’t induce many whiffs for strike three. In order to survive, Worley must find a put away pitch. He needs a pitch with some bite like a slider or something that can fool them like a nasty curve or a changeup.
Hitters will adjust to Worley. Now he needs to adjust to them.
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