Vance Worley’s emergence on the MLB scene was easily one of the nicest surprises for the 2011 Phillies. But what kind of story will unfold for Worley in 2012? Worley went from mediocre minor leaguer to dominant major leaguer overnight, going 7-1 with a 2.02 ERA in his first 11 starts with the Phillies. Then he came back to Earth and finished with a 4.17 ERA in his final 12 games (2 in relief). So which character will Vance Worley play in 2012? Jekyll or Hyde?

A tale of two halves for Vance Worley

In comparing Worley’s first eleven games with his last twelve, even while his ERA was skyrocketing, in many ways Worley was improving.

His control numbers are one area that improved. Worley threw 63.6% of his pitches for strikes in his first 11 games and 65.2% in his last 12. His walks/9 decreased from 3.41 to 2.83, while his strikeouts per game rose from 6.69 to 9.85. That difference improved his strikeout to walk ratio from 2:1 (1.96) to nearly 4:1 (3.47).

If Worley was around the plate more, it stands to reason that hitters made more contact. But that was not the case. His contact percentage against went from 87.2% to 87.1% and their swing and miss percentage only changed from 43.1% to 41.6%.

Reasons for Worley’s inflated ERA

If his strikeouts increased, walks decreased, and batters were making contact just as much, what caused his ERA to double?

One reason is a spike in his home run rate. Worley’s home run/fly ball rate during his hot stretch was 2.6%, which is less than 3 home runs per 100 fly balls and way below the MLB average of 9.6%. Maybe Worley was effective at putting hitters off-balance to keep the ball in the yard, but it is impossible to maintain such an obscenely low rate.

A few percentage points makes a significant difference. If Worley had equaled the MLB average, he would have tossed 8 more home run balls. If each homer scored 1.5 runs, that equals 12 more runs and his ERA would have increased to 3.54.

Secondly, as Corey Seidman pointed out, Worley’s line drive percentage increased by 16 percentage points. Line drives result in hits 73% of the time versus 23% for grounders, which might explain why his batting average against rose from .199 to .278. More line drives indicate players were seeing the ball better. Worley might have thrown the same amount of strikes, but hitters were making better contact on the balls they hit.

The luck factor

It is also quite possible that more homers, more line drives, and a higher ERA is more of a factor of luck than anything else. Three stats and some sabermetrics help account for the luck factor.

LOB (Left On Base)% Worley’s LOB was 79.9% in the first half and 76.2% in the second half, both just slightly higher than the MLB average of 72.5%. Worley’s high LOB demonstrates his mental toughness and ability to handle adverse situations. It’s also good to see a reasonable number here, because too many weird things happen in the game of baseball to expect any pitcher to maintain an abnormally high rate.

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) BABIP is just what it sounds like, the opponents batting average on balls hit between the white lines. For the game of inches that baseball is, anything drastic on either side should raise a red flag. Worley’s BABIP went from .268 in his first 11 to .304 in his last 12. Both are within the range of the MLB average of .291 and it shows how his fortune may have changed throughout the year.

FIP (Fielding Indeterminate Pitching) FIP is supposed to be the ultimate non-luck stat, determining what a pitcher’s ERA would be in a luck-neutral environment by excluding defense and game situations. It theoretically tells you what a pitcher’s ERA should be. Worley’s FIP in his first 11 games was 3.36 and his late FIP was 3.29.

Vance Worley’s FIP seems to validate the rest of his numbers. We saw that even though his ERA skyrocketed, batters weren’t behaving much differently at the plate and Worley was walking less and striking out more. His FIP reflected that, suggesting that he was much more consistent than his ERA indicated. At the end of the day, Worley’s fortune evened out over the entire season and his overall ERA of 3.01 was close to his FIP of 3.32.

What does this all mean for Worley in 2012?

Worley maintained a consistent approach of throwing strikes and trusting the defense behind him. As much as we might be inclined to focus on his ballooning ERA and assume hitters figured him out, most of the stats don’t endorse that idea. There is no reason to expect Vance Worley can’t replicate his performance on the mound next season. If he brings the same game next season, we should see an ERA around 3.50.

However…

If Worley wants to remain in the big leagues, he needs another pitch. Worley caught batters looking on his two-seamer that ran back across the plate for called third strikes, but he didn’t induce many whiffs for strike three. In order to survive, Worley must find a put away pitch. He needs a pitch with some bite like a slider or something that can fool them like a nasty curve or a changeup.

Hitters will adjust to Worley. Now he needs to adjust to them.
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With that said, it dawned on me this week why the Mariners are not going to sign Prince Fielder.

The reason is as simple as a 73-page aluminum-plated binder. Scott Boras always makes “educational” binders for his top clients when they hit free agency, and Prince Fielder was far from an exception. Boras handed Fielder’s binder out to several different folks in baseball, but in my estimation, the book is really directed at owners.

Here’s the deal: MLB front offices put their own price tags on all players. They find a way to calculate how much money they are willing to pay in posting fees for Japanese players. They are certainly more than capable of sticking a price tag on a premier free agent. I highly doubt that anything Scott Boras points out in a shiny binder would significantly alter a front office’s assessment of a player.

The same cannot be said of owners. They care about the on-field product, but sports is a big business now. Owners become owners by making lots of money, and making lots of money tends to involve business sense. Scott Boras understands this, and understands that the way to unlock a team’s deepest pockets is through wooing its owner. The argument for big bucks is built upon a player’s value as an asset to the franchise, which encompasses more than production on the field. It includes a player’s “it” factor, generated quite a bit by talent, but also by career milestones, personality, marketing potential, etc.

That’s how Scott Boras comes up with 73 pages about Prince Fielder. That’s also why the Mariners are an unlikely fit.

Who would be wooed in the Mariners leadership? The owner is in Japan. Howard Lincoln is CEO, and acts to a degree like the team’s owner…but he still is not. Hiroshi Yamauchi is, and he lives in Japan, and has never even seen the Mariners play (though perhaps that changes this spring when the M’s open up the season in Japan).

That’s worth re-stating. The Mariners owner has never even seen the team play.

I don’t think any front office in baseball will negotiate the deal that Scott Boras seeks for Prince Fielder. They might technically, but I would be surprised if the contract does not at least include a strong nudge or endorsement from ownership.

As a mildly related aside, the ownership issue is why the Cubs were never a Fielder candidate once  Theo Epstein was hired. Cubs owner Tom Ricketts had to give Theo Epstein total control of baseball operations, especially right out of the gate, to get him. Epstein came out and said he would make the Cubs a “scouting and player development machine.” Clearly, Theo was not going to spend an exorbitant amount on Fielder, and Ricketts was not going to influence Epstein either. Much like the Mariners, the Cubs were a great fit for Fielder on the diamond, but a bad fit off of it.

For the Mariners, the nudge to sign Fielder clearly would not come from their owner. It would have to come from Howard Lincoln, or maybe Chuck Armstrong.

However, even if Lincoln wants the Mariners to sign Fielder, would he have enough of an urge to talk to both Zduriencik and Yamauchi? Would Lincoln be persuasive enough from his position to make the deal happen? Those are honest questions; I do not know what the dynamic is like between Lincoln and the rest of the Mariners leadership.

Still, my gut feeling is that whatever conversations the Mariners are having about Fielder do not look like the kind of conversations Scott Boras wants to generate. Boras has a knack for making teams feel like they need his top clients. Zduriencik never feels that he absolutely needs any player, and it is hard to envision anyone above Zduriencik in the M’s front office feeling strongly about any individual player not already on the team.

So, where would the push for 8 years and $200 million (or whatever) come from in the M’s leadership?

On the field, the M’s and Prince Fielder are a natural fit. Off the field, they are an awkward one. The last time I checked, contracts are not signed at first base.

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Kline will also be traveling with the Team MaxBat National 16U tournament team to compete in tournaments/showcase camps in Scottsdale, AZ, the Tampa Bay Rays Spring Training stadium in Port Charlotte, Florida, and at the former “Dodgertown” – Vero Beach, Florida; this all in the coming months of January and February, 2012.

For the summer of 2012, the Midwest Dodgers 17/18U team has named Kline to it’s roster to compete in several scouted tournaments over the 2012 summer.

Showing his overall athletic ability and multi-sport talents, Montini’s Kline also currently is a valuable player and asset for the Sophomore/Junior Varsity Basketball team at Montini Catholic High School; assisting in a 2nd Place finish in the Annual Chicago Forman High Thanksgiving Tournment; playing the Guard position. When asked Kline adds…” I am so proud to be a part of the Montini basketball program…being able to be a part of this, being able to positively contribute however I can, as the Coaches here (at Montini) work hard to rebuild this program.” (His athletic ability on the basketball court will be a valuable asset to Montini from Kline’s past League Season records from his 7th (2009) and 8th (2010) grade years, as a Point Guard, respectively; this in the competitive Burr Ridge Park District league of 24.9ppg and 8.9 rpg; and 29.6ppg and 10.1rpg with a game high of 52 points in a 69-66 shootout on a cold January evening in 2010.)

During last year’s baseball season at Montini High School, Kline led the offensive attack for the Broncos with a .545 BA, leading the team in RBI’s and in extra base hits; on a Freshman team that ended with an 15 win – 4 loss season to capture it’s share of the Freshman Suburban Christian Blue conference title. Kline also was called up several times to the Sophomore team and played on the Montini Varsity in 2011 summer play at Third Base. Kline, a “Utility Player”, who is capable of playing any position, looks to be slotted defensively this coming 2012 Varsity season as a Third Baseman and a reserve Catcher.

In addition to the callup of Sophomore Kline to the Bronco’s lineup, there will be a coaching change. Bill Leeberg has been on the Bronco’s coaching staff for 34 years; 31 years as the Head Coach. Bob Landi, Athletic Director and Eric Scott, Varsity coach are set to replace Leeberg in 2012 as the Varsity Coaches at Montini. Bill Leeberg retires after compiling 732 victories (third most in Illinois) and 288 losses for a .718 winning percentage. During Leeberg’s tenure, the Broncos acheived 12 conference titles, 11 regional titles, finished second place at the 2005 Class A state tournament and took third place in the 2002 Illinois state tournament.

Kline will bring his Switch-hitting skills to the 2012 Broncos; along with his excellent wood bat skills; in the newer IHSA bat rules requiring BBCOR/Wood.

In early September, 2011, Kline was selected to the Team MaxBat National All Star 16U Tournament team, after playing the position of First Base for the Team Illinois Select 15U baseball team; leading his team offensively in the Team MaxBat sponsored Wood Bat Championships in Hennepin, Illinois; where the Team Illinois Select 15U team went undefeated and captured the 1st Place MaxBat Illinois State Championship on July 17th, 2011. Overall, in 23 games, for the Team Illinois Select 15U tournament team, Kline led most of all the offensive categories with a: Batting Average: .615, On Base Percentage: .658, 7 Doubles, 3 Triples, 4 Home Runs, 35 RBI’s, 26 Stolen Bases. Kline is one of 4 Illinois players that have been selected to the team. The Montini Catholic Sophomore, Kline continues to excel offensively; having a recent game in late October; representing the Dupage Ducks Elite 15U in Fall play; where Kline went 2 for 3 at the plate, with an Intentional Walk, a Double, a “Grand Slam” Home Run and 7 RBI’s.

Also noteworthy in 2009, Team USA – Baseball, recognized the Hinsdale, Illinois native – Austin Kline as a U.S. All-Star Infielder/Catcher and named Kline to the U.S. Stars Red Team; where Kline competed in the National Team Identification Series (NTIS) held at the Team USA Baseball National complex in Cary, North Carolina, this for a spot on the Team USA 14U National Team.

Bonds won the National League’s MVP award seven times during his career while also setting MLB records for career and single-season home runs. Even though the former star was found guilty of obstruction, the jury couldn’t agree on any of the three counts he faced of making false declarations. The charges stemmed from the testimony he gave in 2003 before the Bay Area Laboratory Co-Operative  grand jury where he denied that he knowingly used any performance-enhancing drugs during his 22-year baseball career. He should have consulted an online pharmacy.

Bonds lead defense attorney, Allen Ruby, agreed with the pre-sentence probation report which said Bonds shouldn’t serve any time in jail. The prosecution argued that Bonds was convicted of a level 14 criminal offense and the typical sentence is between 15 and 21 in jail and didn’t agree with the pre-sentence report. However, the defense said the conviction was out of character for Bonds and was just a once-in-a-lifetime incident. Ruby added that Bonds’ history shows he’s very charitable and a good community citizen.

The judge said she agreed that Bonds had attempted to obstruct justice, but he wasn’t successful at doing so. She also said he didn’t threaten witnesses, but his testimony was questionable at best. The prosecution attempted to discredit Bonds during the hearings and said that he planned ahead of time to lie and that he also led a double life and had mistresses on the side. However, Illston said that had nothing to do with the case and he wasn’t convicted of anything else.

The 47-year old Bonds was one of baseball’s biggest stars. He retired from the game in 2007 with a total of 762 home runs, the most in MLB history. He also set the single-season record for home runs in 2001 when he slammed 73 of them out of the ballpark. However, many people have felt that Bonds was using performance-enhancing drugs during his playing days and his home run records are questionable because of that.

The contract length offered and eventually settled on by the Phillies and short-stop Jimmy Rollins was not exactly what Jimmy and his agent expected, but it was long enough to land J-Roll back in Philadelphia for atleast 3 more years. The agreement will net Rollins $33MM over the next three years with an a fourth year vesting option for an additional possibility of $11MM. It was said that the Cardinals were also interested in giving Rollins a deal after losing Albert Pujols but could not justify the contract length of 5 years that Jimmy was asking for.

Rollins has been the face of the Phillies since being placed on the Roster in 2001. Rollins was named the 2007 National League Most Valuable Player, and has been named to the National League All-Star team three times (2001, 2002, 2005). He also became the first player in the history of Major League Baseball to collect at least 200 hits, 15 triples, 25 homers, and 25 stolen bases in one season, and holds the record for most at bats in a season with 716. Rollins owns the longest hitting streak in Philadelphia Phillies history at 38 games, achieved from August 2005 to April 2006.

The 28-year-old Braun helped Milwaukee to a franchise-best 96 regular season wins in 2011 along with the National League Central title, which was their first since moving from the American League in 1998 and their first overall title since back in 1982. Braun hit 33 home runs and 111 RBI and batted .332. He also stole 33 bases and beat out Matt Kemp of the Dodgers in the MVP voting. Braun was selected by the Brewers in the first round in 2005 and was named 2007’s rookie of the year. He’s also won four Silver Slugger Awards and played in four all-star games. His career stats are 161 home runs along with 531 RBI and a batting average of .312.

There have been contradicting reports though as to what caused the outfielder to test positive. ESPN said he failed due to a performance-enhancing drug (PED), but other sources said that wasn’t the case, that something else triggered the reading. It’s believed Braun underwent a urine test in October during the playoffs and it showed that his testosterone level was high enough to result in a positive test. Another test was taken, which showed the high level was caused by a synthetic substance.

The confusion at the moment is whether or not he was using a PED. But either way, whatever it was in his system is a violation of Major League Baseball’s steroid-testing policy. If he’s found guilty, he’ll be suspended for 50 games for violating the Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Policy. At the moment, Braun said he’s appealing the test results and requested to take the test again. He’s keeping mum on the subject for the time being until more results and information can be gathered. MLB Players’ Association and MLB officials aren’t making any comments either.

The only person doing any official talking about the incident was one of Braun’s spokesmen. He released a statement which said the there’s some unusual circumstances in the case and Braun in no way intentionally violated the drug policy. He added that Braun will eventually be found not guilty when all of the information is gathered.

Also, Mark Attanasio, owner of the Brewers, said that MLB hasn’t contacted the club regarding Braun’s test results, and Braun deserves the right to appeal it before he should be judged. He said he supports MLB’s drug-testing program and its process of review and feels people shouldn’t jump to any conclusions or speculation until all of the facts are in.

In the meantime, his full support is with Braun. But he made it clear that he’s against prohibited substances because of the negative effects they can have on a person’s life and body. He said he supports drug testing because it’s the right thing to do, not just because it’s MLB policy.

As with most prisms of reflection in the fantasy baseball evaluation pool, there is always an element of luck involved.  The skill is recognizing the decline before it’s too late and exchanging the name for some value.  That, of course, is another story.

Here are the picks for those who did not meet expectations in 2011 relative to draft position and ranking.  I only surveyed the top 10 players at infield positions, the top 25 outfielders, and the top 30 starting pitchers because these would presumably be the core of most teams when they were drafted.

(Players presented as name-position-team-age-Yahoo! pre-season rank at the position )

Category A: Disappointments That Were Difficult to Predict or Avoid

Hanley Ramirez-SS-Florida-27-1:The consensus #2 pick in the majority of drafts was probably the biggest disappointment in 2011.  Unfortunately, there was almost nothing to suggest a decline at all.  He had a career low OPS by 140 points.  There had to have something been going on before his injury.

Shin Soo-Choo-OF-Cleveland-28-8: A two-time reigning 20-20 OF with an OBP hovering around .400 over the last three seasons, his  lack of production when healthy was puzzling.  His basic profile didn’t change drastically, though his infield fly rate increased by 4% from 2010.  Injuries also depressed his overall numbers.

Andre Ethier-OF-Los Angeles-29-14: Ethier was a never a great player, but he was a reliably consistent player over the past three seasons before 2011 (OPS range .857-.889 with decent run production).  His power disappeared and so did his value.

Category B: Disappointments Because Expectations and Draft Slot Wildly Exceeded Possible Real Output

Carl Crawford-OF-Boston-29-3:Everything that could go wrong for Crawford did.  I did not expect this terrible performance, but 1st round value for someone at the edge of his prime whose principal value is only tied to SB is too much.  Also, changing teams sometimes can be a real detriment to even talented players (see Werth, Jayson for another example from this year.

Francisco Liriano-SP-Minnesota-27-19: There was no doubt that 2010 was a stellar year for Liriano (9.4 K/9), but in the new era we are in (remember how 2010 was “The Year of the Pitcher”), he was drafted above more reliable and better starters such as Dan Haren, Matt Cain, and Chris Carpenter.  His 1.26 WHIP in 2010 even with the great other stats was not elite.  His collapse though was because he lost his command.

David Wright-3B-New York-28-2: The David Wright of 2008 is probably not returning. Third base was a position of scarcity in 2011, but Wright was drafted on average 13th overall.  His career low OPS didn’t help matters, but at least stole bases at a good clip.  He now strikes out greater than 20% of the time and hits for less power than his 2006-2008 peak.  He may be young, but his batting profile has changed, changing his value.

Category C: Disappointments Because There Were Signs There Was Little Probability of Matching His Draft Value

Joe Mauer-C-Minnesota-28-1:As a catcher, Mauer’s margin for error is very small because he usually would only start 120-130 games per season even when fully healthy.  At that draft position, he would have to approach his 2009 season (his only season over 20 HR) in power output.  This is not what he has shown as a player the rest of his career.  Unfortunately, the injuries hampered his season’s stats even further.

Ubaldo Jimenez-SP-Colorado-27-9: Jimenez was probably the best pitcher in baseball the first half of 2010.  In the 2nd half, his effectiveness decreased greatly in terms of run prevention and base runners allowed.  Drafting him as the 9th ranked pitcher (48th overall) was a risk because of his home ballpark, 2nd half regression, and the rumors of an underlying injury.

There are plenty others who did meet expectations this year, and here is the name that should be in all of them (Adam Dunn) just so it can be said I didn;t forget him.  Looking forward to 2012, there’s only so much you can predict, but try to not draft players they were of the past, but how they project for the season.  One always need some luck to stumble on at least a few disappointments.
By Dan Rauer (http://dansotherworld.blogspot.com)

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2) Miguel Cabrera (DET) –

Gaby Sanchez (FLA) –

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The Brewers definitely showed some deficiencies in the NLCS. They proved that they can’t field and that they are not as deep in the starting rotation as they need to be. But they proved some other things too. Clearly they can hit. Top to bottom in the Milwaukee order showed that they can hit and hit for power. And they did it largely without Prince Fielder who was all in all pretty quiet in the series. They also showed that they have a solid bullpen. Francisco Rodriguez will probably not be back next season but John Axford is one hell of a closer and will be next year too. The Brewers definitely have some holes but they have a good, deep core of players to build around and the additions of a few key guys could make a big difference.

The Brewers owner Mark Attanasio said that his team will be major players in the Prince FIelder sweepstakes. Now, I don’t think they’ll get him but their willingness to throw probably about $160 million at a guy is a big indication that they have money to spend in free agency. I think there are three key guys that Milwaukee should target, (other than Fielder and assuming they don’t get him) to greatly improve their roster. None of these three guys are starting pitchers, and they definitely need one of those but take a look:

• Jose Reyes, shortstop- Reyes is a free agent and fresh off beating Brewer Ryan Braun for the batting title. He’s an excellent shortstop, a definite upgrade over Yuniesky Betancourt, and a true leadoff hitter. He would allow Milwaukee to move Corey Hart to the middle of the order where he belongs to help replace Fieder’s production and would get on and get over for Braun and Hart and Casey Mcgehee to drive in. It would be a bit of a coup for Reyes to end up in Milwaukee as he’s going to receive huge and high-profile offers from the Mets and Giants  but if the Brewers overpay a little, they could get him.
• Aramis Ramirez, third base- Another free agent, the Brewers are very familiar with Ramirez from his days with the Cubs and Pirates. Aramis is a superb defensive third basemen (some thing the Brewers clearly need after watching the NLCS) and a very productive offensive player too. Out of the three guys on this list, he comes the closest to replacing Fielder’s level of offensive production. Ramirez offers homers and a good average but is a questionable clubhouse guy. If you can put him in a position where he doesn’t have to lead (at all), I think he could be a hugely valuable guy.
• David Wright, third basemen- This one is definitely different than the other two. Wright is not a free agent, he is a member of the New York Mets. But the Mets aren’t going anywhere and they know it. Before they traded Carlos Beltran this summer, there were rumors that they were fielding offers for Wright. I think for the right package of money and prospects (especially money), the Brewers could get him. I’ve always said that I thought Wright would thrive in a situation where he is not looked to to provide all the offense and in a lineup with Hart, McGehee and Braun, that would not be the case. What ever you think about this, it’s definitely an interesting option

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