2009 San Diego Padres Preview

2008 Record: 63-99
Key Additions: David Eckstein, Walter Silva

Key Subtractions: Khalil Greene, Trevor Hoffman

A Look at the Line Up:

C – Nick Hundley is only 25 years old and had trouble adjusting to major league pitching during last season’s call up. He hit .237 in 198 at bats but has shown some pop in the minor, cranking 20 jacks in AA in 2007. He will be a fun young catcher to watch this season as he could breakout. He will get all the chances in the world to prove himself on this team.

1B – Adrian Gonzalez is THE best player the Padres have and one of the premiere first basemen in the league. He’s coming off of a great World Baseball Classic where he led the Mexico team with his ability to hit for power, average, and play great defense. He will do the same for the Padres this year. Adrian will be the one bright star to gaze upon in what looks to be a rough season for this team.

2B – David Eckstein was acquired this off season and will bring the veteran presence this team needs as well as consistent at bats and fielding. Edgar Gonzalez, Adrian’s older brother will back him up and could challenge Eckstein for at bats if allowed the chance this year. Eckstein will likely bat second behind Giles and in front of Adrian Gonzalez, which means that he will see a lot of good pitches this year!

SS – Luis Rodriguez looks to anchor the SS position with Greene gone. Rodriguez will form a good double play tandem with Eckstein as the Padres look to be very sound defensively in the middle infield.  He hit .287 filling in for Greene last season but doesn’t steal much or hit for power so he will be a contact hitter and nothing else.

3B — Kevin Kouzmanoff will once again field the hot corner for the Padres. Kouz could break out this year as well. He improved last season and has huge potential. Unfortunately he is on a bad team. But I can’t think of a better situation than to bat cleanup behind Adrian Gonzalez which is why I consider him for a potential breakout season.

RF – Brian Giles is getting up there in age and I am not sure if he should still be leading off for the Padres, but he will. Giles hits for average still, around .300 and will knock 10-15 home runs. He will also play a steady RF but I would not expect him to steal many bags this year, again, he is aging.

CF – Jody Gerut was a rookie sensation with Cleveland in 2003 and then faded into obscutity after being traded twice in 2005. He did not play any baseball, not even in the minors, in 2006 and 2007. Well the Padres were in need last season and gave him a shot. He delivered superbly hitting .296 with 14 homers in 328 games. He’s only 31 and that’s not too old and will likely bat 5th behind Kouz.

LF – Chase Headley is the man to watch this season. The 24 year old, with a .301 average in the minors, played well in a call up last season, batting .269 with 9 home runs in 91 games. He is definitely the biggest sleeper and breakout candidate as this kid has a lot of talent. He projects to be a .300/20 HR buy and could achieve that this year.
A look at the pitching:

SP – Look no further than staff ace Jake Peavy. He is virtually unhittable at home boasting a 1.74 ERA but only going 5-5 because of a poor supporting cast. Peavy has been discussed as trade bait as the Padres look to cut payroll following a nasty divorce hearing involving the owner and the pending sale of the club. They figure finish last or finish last minus the $11 million Peavy will earn this year. Scouts are saying he looks as sharp as ever this spring after a terrible World Baseball Classic.

Chris Young looks to rebound from an injury plaged 2008 which saw him take a Pujols line drive off the face fracturing the nose and skull and some forearm tightness. He is topping out in the mid 80s this spring and that will not cut it for him, he needs to be  in the low 90s. He has had a poor spring with some tendinitis to boot so I do not expect Young to do well this year.

The rest of the staff is full of has beens and never will bes. Shawn Hill came over after being released by another club and may contend for the 5th starter position and 32 year old rookie Walter Silva looks like a great pickup from the Mexican league.

Outlook:
Not good. The team is predicted to finish last by everyone, and I mean everyone. The organization is in transition of ownership and they are trying to move their all world pitcher Jake Peavy because of his salary. It’s a poor situation for players like Peavy and Gonzalez but there is a lot of opportunity for many of the organization’s young prospects to breakout and get major league experience. But alas, they will finish last. Hey, at least they have a great ball park!

Prediction:
Headley will breakout, Peavy will get traded for some great prospects, Gerut will have a great season and Young will falter. 59-103 will give them the worst record in the NL this season.

2009 Los Angeles Dodgers Preview

2008 Record: 84-78 1st Place
Key Additions: Orlando Hudson, Randy Wolf, Mark Loretta, Guillermo Mota, Will Ohman
Key Subtractions: Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Takashi Saito, Jeff Kent, Nomar Garciaparra, Joe Beimel, Andruw Jones, Scott Proctor

A Look at the Line Up:
C – Russel Martin is going to play better this year, and he played just great last year but I think that people were expecting a little more. He will be taking more time off and realizes that he needs that to stay healthy. But he has always been one of those guys that plays like his hair is on fire and I’ll bet if the Dodgers are in a close race he will lobby hard to play every day.

1B – James Loney is a solid and consistent player that hardly ever misses a game. People are still waiting for the power to come to his bat and may have to wait a bit longer as this spring has seen a light hitting Loney so far. He is still very young and has time to develop his power still. He will get a lot of RBIs in the new high powered Dodgers offense so I project him to have over 100 RBIs this season and at least 20 HRs.

2B – Orlando Hudson is a cool cat, a great clubhouse guy and outstanding person. So he will definitely help keep this team together but I am not sure about his play or his health. The wrist injury from last season will apparently always be with him, he will never recover 100% from it.

He had to learn how to field balls differently because his wrist is so jacked up that it doesn’t bend the way it used to. So far though his fielding has been stellar and with Furcal at SS we figure to see plenty of web gems from the best double play tandem in all of baseball this season. He will be surrounded by great hitters in Furcal at leadoff and Manny in the 3 hole so he will see many good pitches to hit this year. A definitely upgrade at 2B this year.

SS – Rafael Furcal seems all healed from the back injury that ruined his 2008 season. He was on a torrid pace before the injury so I expect a career year from him batting in this Dodgers lineup, if he can stay healthy. He has been diligently performing his back and core strengthening exercises that are supposed to help his back stay healthy. Furcal is ready for a World Series run in 09 for the Dodgers.

3B – Casey Blake, poor Casey Blake. He is still getting trashed by fans online who want more out of the 3B position. But he is as steady and veteran as they come. He will bat 8th and hits about 20 HRs while batting about .280. To me those are great numbers for the 8 spot! I like Blake and feel that he will contribute greatly to this team.

RF – Andre Ethier was the Dodgers best hitter last year, excluding Manny, and figures to build off of that again this year. I still think that he should hit in the number 2 spot in front of Manny which is where he had great success last season but it appears that Hudson will fill that spot in the order. That means that Ethier could hit in the 4-6 spot. Most people feel that Kemp has more potential because of his size and athleticism but I feel that Ethier brings the talent and attitude required to succeed at the major league level.

CF – Matt Kemp is still projected to be a stud. He was good last season and finished just behind Ethier in stats, but with a  rather high strikeout rate. He plans on cutting that back this year with better discipline, a year’s experience under the belt, and new contact lenses that have him seeing the ball better at the plate and picking up the ball off the bat in center. Kemp could be a 30-30 guy this year and projects to bat somewhere in the 5-7 spots.

LF – Manny Ramirez, he’s baaaaaack. Nothing more to say here except that pitchers had better watch out! The dodgers just need to make sure that he is protected in the lineup because I see many more walks in his future this season.

A look at the pitching:

SP – The biggest perceived weakness for the Dodgers is pitching. But the good news is that their farm system is stocked full of great arms that could step in this season and surprise. Jason Schmidt could provide a pleasant surprise this season but will not be game ready until about mid May. James McDonald is the real thing, and will start the season as the fifth starter. Randy Wolf looks set for a solid season, he will not jump out at you but will provide solid innings of work. And Hiroki Kuroda and Chad Billingsley really need to step up this season and lead the staff. Clayton Kershaw will achieve ace status this season and he is really fun to watch.

RP – Jonathon Broxton looks to step in and take over closing duties with the departure of Saito. The rest of the relief core is up in the air as far as how they will perform this season. But the late acquisition of Will Ohman to fill the lefty specialist role will help anchor things. Again the minors are stocked with both veteran and rookie arms that can step in and help.

Outlook:

The Dodgers should produce one of the premier offenses in baseball this year but they need to stay healthy, especially at pitching. I still think that the pitching staff will end up being a lot better than everyone thinks and that would be dangerous for other clubs. The Dodgers still have money to spend and may spend it on another starting pitcher or to fill another unforeseen need during the season. Oh, and as soon as somebody losses a center fielder Juan Pierre will most likely be traded.

Prediction:

92-70 will earn the Dodgers the division this year. I just don’t think that the Diamondbacks or the Giants or the Rockies have enough talent to keep up with them all season.

The MLBPA Says No On Giving Back To The Community

The economy is in shambles, almost one in every ten people in some states are unemployed, people are losing their houses, and it would seem like a great time for those more fortunate to give back. Right?

It was reported by ESPN today that the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA) filed a grievance against the clubs because of the Dodgers new “Ramirez” provision which calls for a charitable donation in all contracts from now on.

Manny Ramirez accepted a 2 year $45 million deal on March 4th. At the same time he made a $1million dollar donation to the Dodgers Dream Foundation at the request of the Dodgers owner Frank McCourt. Now it is not known if McCourt asked for that much or if Manny generously offered up the million after being asked for just a donation. But McCourt vowed that he would require all contracts from the Dodgers to have a “Ramirez” provision.

This provision is a blank line for the player to write in an amount that they want to donate to charity. So it does not require a certain amount, as long as it’s something. It could be a dollar or a million. But the player that donates more will certainly benefit from the positive image it creates for them in their new team’s city.

Back to the grievance. The MLBPA’s lawyer feels that its fine for players to make donations whenever THEY want to, but that forcing players to make a donation was not allowed under the current agreement.

The Executive VP of Labor Relations, Rob Manfred, says that it’s totally fine and that teams have been doing it for years. He says that as long as it is a club policy and is adhered to then clubs are free to bargain with players and make special pacts.
“Article II of baseball’s labor agreement states contracts can include special covenants which actually or potentially provide additional benefits to the player. We’re at a loss to understand how the MLBPA could possibly take the position that making a charitable donation does not provide a benefit to the player,” says Manfred.

Frank McCourt was surprised by the news when asked about it today but I feel that he put it best in his statements below.
“I have not seen the grievance, but I find it odd that in these challenging times, that we encounter a complaint against the idea of players giving back to the communities that support them,” he said in a statement. “We believe there are qualities that represent the Dodger way. The player’s contributions to the team, appreciation of the fans, and impact on such a supportive community all combine to help our organization live up to our core values. We seek players who embrace these values. The Ramirez provision is a blank line to be filled in with whatever number a player chooses.”

Way to go Frank! The MLBPA needs to pull their heads out and open up THEIR pocket books, along with the players and continue to give back to their communities and help those less fortunate than them.

The grievance was filed Friday and if it’s not settled it will go to arbitrator Shyam Das for a decision.

Breaking: Manny Signing With The Dodgers This Week!

A report today from 570 AM in Los Angeles says that an agreement has been reached between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Manny Ramirez camp. The flagship AM radio station for Fox Radio is saying that it is a two year contract with an option for a third year. The official announcement is supposed to come later this week.

The third year option is said to be heavily laden with incentives. This is exactly what people expected, and third or fourth year with massive incentives. Of course I would also expect a J.D. Drewesque out clause negotiated in there by Scott Boras, Manny’s agent. It appears that the Dodgers strategy this off season has really paid off big time! Getting Manny on two years with a third year option is a great deal for them. Of course the numbers have not yet been announced; let’s just hope that they are near or below the earlier offer of two years at $45 million.

This is great news for Dodgers fans as it automatically catapults the team into the top echelon of the National League. Their only perceived weakness so far seems to be pitching because of the lack of experience on the staff. But the team is laden with young talented arms that are both ready for this season and many that are still marinating in the minors. I expect the Dodgers to have some exceptional homegrown pitching talent come of age this year and the coming years as well.

Adding Manny also makes Pierre somewhat expendable. That and a logjam at certain positions internally put the Dodgers in a great spot to trade for some pitching as the season unfolds if necessary. I feel that the Dodgers are prepared to run their kids out there this year and see what they can do. And of course there are a slew of veterans trying to resurrect their carrers as well. People like Vargas, Schmidt, Estes, Weaver, and Milton are all seasoned vets that could turn things around.

All said, the Dodgers lineup is looking mighty scary at this point and I am sure that Dodgers fans around the world are looking forward to the coming season!

Dodgers Sign Orlando Hudson

The Los Angeles Dodgers have reached a 1-year agreement with Orlando Hudson. The deal is believed to be worth $3.4 million with incentives that could add as much as $4.6 million to that, which could bring the deal to a total of $8 million for the year.

What a great pickup for the Dodgers. Hudson hit .305 with eight homers, 41 RBIs and a .367 on-base percentage in 107 games with the Diamondbacks in 2008.

He adds a versatile switch hitting and speedy duo at the top of the Dodgers lineup. This really improves the team as a whole, espcially on the defensive side. I look forward to many dazzling plays and double plays between Furcal and Hudson this season! Here would be the projected batting order.

1.    Furcal
2.    Hudson
3.    Ethier
4.    Kemp
5.    Loney
6.    Blake
7.    Martin
8.    Pierre

Of course it could look alot better like this:

1.    Furcal
2.    Hudson
3.    Ethier
4.    Ramirez
5.    Kemp
6.    Loney
7.    Blake
8.    Martin

Sorry, I had to do it.

Now the Dodgers lose their first-round Draft pick in June, No. 17 overall but Los Angeles will receive an additional sandwich pick between the first and second rounds, as well as the Atlanta Braves’ second-round pick as compensation for the signing of Derek Lowe. And IF Manny Ramirez decides to sign with another team the Dodgers would be in line for another draft pick as compensation.

So the way I see it this was masterful because whether or not the Dodgers sing Manny they win. Its a win-win situation!

The Saving Grace for This Year’s Unsigned Free Agents

The winter long contract dances that have been going on are enough to make your head spin. The Manny Ramirez situation, Orlando Cabrera, Orlando Hudson, Juan Cruz, and more are Type A players. This means that any team that signs them, other than their current team, has to give up a first-round pick as compensation.

The prospect of having to give up a first-round draft pick has been enough to turn many clubs off. Even now that the market has depressed and players can be had at bargain rates, teams are reluctant to sign type A players. Just look at Orlando Hudson and the Dodgers and you have to believe that the only reason the Dodgers have not jumped at signing him is because of the draft pick. The Dodgers would get a steal of a deal and on a short 1 year contract which is exactly what they want!

So how do we get around this?

There is a thing called a “sign and trade” deal that the NBA has been using to maneuver rosters while getting around the NBA’s Salary cap rules. Major League Baseball should take some cues from the NBA on this one. How it works is that a player’s 2008 team resigns him, then they trade him in a prearranged deal to a team wants to sign him but that does not want to give up the draft pick.

Of course the new team will still need to give something up in return. But the idea is that they can give up a minors player rather than a first-round pick, which could be potentially a big deal. They can give up a pick in the later in the draft, prospects, or maybe even cash but whatever it is it will have to be close to the prospective picks.

Players will need to sign a waiver before resigning with their team in advance of any deals made. The commissioner’s office has confirmed that they would support this in hopes that it helps the remaining free agents to find a team. This sort of thing is unprecedented in MLB history but these are tough times that we are in economically and they require drastic measures.

So we will see if the Dodgers and Ned Colletti can pull of some magic and work a deal for Hudson. Or if the Oakland A’s can pull something off for Cabrera. This will be a very interesting year for baseball to say the least.

Manny Deal With The Dodgers In The Bag

The Washington Nationals announced that they have signed Adam Dunn to a 2 year deal today. Also announced was the signing of Bobby Abreu by the Angels to a 1 year deal. Wow! What does that mean for the Dodgers?

Adam Dunn was speculated, with good cause, to be the top target for the Dodgers after Manny Ramirez, and Bobby Abreu were believed to be third in line on the wish list. So if the Dodgers did not sign Manny Ramirez to a deal they would go after Dunn, and if they could not sign Dunn, they would then go after Abreu and Dunn have already signed and the Dodgers still do not have Manny signed to a deal! Oh my, that really throws a wrench in the Dodgers plans. Or does it? Boras will really have a lot of ammo to force the Dodgers to give up the dollars and the years. Or does it?

I am going to call it here right now. Manny Ramirez has already signed a deal with the Dodgers! Yes, I said it.
I have to believe that the only reason that Abreu AND Dunn have both been able to sign, and on the same day mind you, is because they are no longer blocked by Manny Ramirez. I am also guessing that the Dodgers are not dumb enough to allow them both to sign if they did not already have Manny signed. That being said, my educated guess is that the Dodgers have already signed Manny but have yet to announce anything.

This is the only scenario that makes any sense to me. Dunn had been courted by the Nationals for a while now and everyone knows that Bowden loves Dunn, he drafted originally with the Reds. So the Nats have been courting Dunn all off season. But Dunn has been holding out for the Dodgers. He made it very clear that he favored the Dodgers over the Nationals.

Now I have not heard much about Abreu’s desire to play anywhere but it is actually a really good fit for him with the Angels, it totally makes sense. But for both of the obvious backup plans for the Dodgers to be off the table all of a sudden, on the same day? Something smelled odd about that.

Well, so what do you have to say about that? I want to know who disagrees or agrees and why. Only time will tell though.

Steroids In Baseball:The More Change, The More The Same

With the recent happenings in baseball in regards to steroids in the past few years it has come to everyone’s attention that steroids, or “roids” as they are often referred to, had become common place in baseball at some point a long time ago. Steroids are no longer the white elephant in the room that nobody wants to talk about. They are the one of the biggest topics in baseball and most difficult to deal with or understand.

Finding out that such greats from the 1980s and 1990s such as Jose Canseco, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, and others had used steroids has been tough to stomach. Major league baseball has had a difficult time policing it, understanding it, addressing it, and penalizing it. It was finally addressed after the 2003 secret testing that occurred and revealed that over 5% of tests came back positive and the next year strong consequences were put in place for anyone that tested positive, but for decades before that MLB really did not pay attention to the matter.

It was a “clubhouse” thing that was always protected and swept under the rug. Almost EVERY team in baseball knew which of their players were juicing and which were not. It has been revealed in internal scouting reports for players like Paul LoDuca of the Dodgers. The Dodgers were well aware that he was on steroids but did nothing about it, well they did end up trading him the season following the report.

Not addressing it, not penalizing it, and not testing for it are all ways in which MLB and its teams condoned the use of steroids! I do agree that everyone is entitled to a choice and that those that choose to use steroids need to be accountable for their actions. But MLB did know that players were using steroids and choose to skirt the issue for as long as they could. And the player’s union is as much to blame as anyone, especially for the ways that they go about protecting players that use steroids!
Many questions arise when it comes to steroid use in baseball. What happens to a player’s records and stats? Are they to be barred from the Hall of Fame?

McGwire has yet to be elected and seems to be getting fewer votes each time they vote. I believe that he has one more shot at it and it does not look like he will make it. What happens to Bonds’ home run records? Or Alex Rodriquez’s ? What about other players like Mickey Mantle, who was infamous for his late night partying yet was able to play at a very high level throughout the season.

A then-controversial book called Ball Four by Jim Bouton was published in the 1970s that made a note of players popping “greenies.” This was the name for green pills that contained amphetamines. They are “pep pills,” dextroamphetamine sulfate to be exact. And Bouton noted that a lot of baseball players couldn’t function without them. They were banned substances then and now. He even goes as far as noting that he felt that AT LEAST half of all baseball players used them, at least!

I have no option but to believe that baseball players, and athletes from all other walks, have been using what are or could have been labeled as illegal performance enhancing substances forever. Heck, it would not surprise me to hear that Ted Williams, yes Teddy baseball, had taken something at least a few times during his career. It was apparently a widely accepted and protected thing. Most good ball players are used to special treatment because of their skills, think of the best jocks at your high school or college. And when they made it to the professional levels things were not any different.

So where does this big mess leave us as fans, owners, players, and employees of major league baseball? My guess is that the rest of the over 100 players that tested positive along with A-Rod back in 2003 will be made known soon. Then what? As far as stats and Hall of Fame potential go, it’s a hard decision to make when you consider all things. I would love to hear everyone’s thoughts on how this should be handled.

Why the World Baseball Classic Truly is Classic

There are a lot of naysayers out there that claim the World Baseball Classic (WBC) to be, well, not very classic. On the flip side, there are also many people that love it. Let’s examine both sides, first we look at the camp that argues against the WBC.

Here are the main arguments against the WBC that I hear along with my counter points:

• Not ALL the best players for each country are participating.

To this I ask, is EVERY best player in the U.S. major leagues? The answer is a resounding NO! There are very gifted players in Japan, and many of the Latin American leagues (Cuba), that consist of players that are better than most of the players in the MLB. Does that stop us from watching MLB?

The other rebuttal to this argument is that sure, Ryan Howard turned down his invite, but the large majority of participating teams have all star lineups regardless of holdouts like Howard for the US. I mean just read through the WBC rosters of countries like the US, Venezuela, DR, Cuba, Panama, Puerto Rico, etc. These are some of the BEST teams I have ever seen. If they were given the opportunity to play together for an entire season with a stable coaching staff I have no doubts that many of these teams would be off the Richter scale!

You can still go to a WBC game and see Miguel Cabrera, Johan Santana, Abreu, Zambrano, Ordonez and more do battle with a lineup that includes Peavy, Jeter, Chipper, Braun, and Oswalt. And I guarantee you that the intensity in these matchups far exceeds that of the All-Star game!

• It is too much of an injury risk for players.

This is a valid point, if you look at what happened statistically; to many of the pitchers from the first classic you have some good figures to back this up. There were high profile cases like Jake Peavy, who had a terrible April and sub .500 season for the Padres following his performance in the WBC. I feel that this is one of those things that will be worked out with better scheduling, stricter pitch counts, and expanded rosters to accommodate more pitchers who will throw less innings. Hitters seemed to be fine overall and actually better prepared to start the season having come off of competitive games against MLB caliber pitching. And everyone agrees that you cannot trace all injuries in 2006 to the WBC.

• The rules of the WBC do not make sense.

One of these rules is the timing of the WBC, which many agree should and will be adjusted eventually. But remember that this is a brand spanking new tournament and that it will evolve dramatically in the coming years. They are bound to have many things that they did not do right, but as long as they continue to evaluate and learn from those mistakes these things will work themselves out. MLB did not start off perfect and has evolved and adapted over time too. One of the lame rules that I feel will change eventually is the one that allows players who were not born in a country play for that country, think A-Rod playing for the DR (like they need any more all-stars on their roster!). To me it’s about national pride. It’s OK to be proud of having Dominican roots, but for crying out loud be proud of the country that has raised you and influenced you the most!

• The games are boring; TV viewership was low because no one in the US cares.

Well I will tell you who in the US cares, Jake Peavy cares! He proudly pitched for the US in 2006 and was criticized because he had a terrible season after that. You think that he even debated whether or not to participate this time around, NO! He is proud to be a part of the intensity and pride that is part of the WBC. I’ll tell you who else cares a whole lot, Latin and Latin American fans! People in the US have lost a bit of their baseball soul over the years. In Latin American countries baseball in many ways is still a very pure game, where players play for personal, team, and county pride without a huge pay check as the incentive!
I was fortunate enough to attend the semi-finals and finals at Petco park in 2006. And I can tell you that those were some of the best, most intense, games I have EVER been too. The only exception is a playoff game in which your favorite team is part of. But the foreign fans were great. There were beautiful Latin women dancing, faces painted everywhere, horns, trumpets, guitars, songs, chants, cheers, boos, and overall celebration of the game! It was like one gigantic baseball party. I will tell you that the Latin, and at many times even the Asian fans, made US baseball fans seem like disinterested buttoned-up conservative dorks. We can learn a lot from the foreign fans about how to enjoy a baseball game.

Overall, the league is new and we all have to remember that. Is it perfect in its current state, certainly not. But overall it is a very good thing for baseball and its fans. It contains world class talent no matter what the timing or risk of injury. It provides us with great baseball to watch in March. It expands baseball’s reach globally and fosters national pride. I for one look forward to watching many more World Baseball Classic’s to come along with my kids, and am holding on to all of my souvenirs and memories from the inaugural WBC.

The REAL Reason Your Team Is Not Shopping This Offseason

Wondering why your team is not making a mad last ditch run to shore up a needed position on your team via free agency? Well, the economy is the overwhelming issue at hand, but that is not the only reason.

First we’ll examine the overall economic factors. Just look at the current free agent class, (most) teams are just not as willing to shell out big money and especially not big contracts for fear of how the economy will affect their market. The fact that Manny has not yet signed is a big testament to that, as well as the many free agents like Derek Lowe, Francisco Rodriquez (K-Rod), or Pat Burrell who all had to sign well below what they might have before the recession.

But the REAL reason, for the time being, is arbitration. Most teams have many arbitration hearings, or contracts, to work out as we approach spring training. This means that as team budgets shrink the potential money that will have to be paid via arbitration hearings or contracts will have a greater impact. Sure, typically 20 million dollars in payroll at this time of year wouldn’t be as big a deal. But with the economic uncertainty that teams are facing in their respective markets the money that teams might have to pay out in the coming weeks has become a bigger issue.

No one is really saying this of course, teams want to downplay the economy at some times and rightfully so. But I guarantee you that teams are waiting to find out what budget they will have left to work with before they start to go after big free agents before spring training. It makes sense, I mean let’s all find out what we will owe our current employees before we go out and hire any new ones.

Most teams have many arbitration hearings to go through. Shoring up young talented players like Andre Ethier, Russel Martin, or Cole Hamels is definitely a priority for teams. Especially since most teams are getting a great deal for these players. And most teams have more arbitration eligible players than not. Now I understand that not all arbitration eligible players make it to an arbitration hearing. Clubs try to do all that they can to avoid this and you can see this by a flurry of smaller contracts being worked out right now in order to avoid arbitration.

After all of these contracts get worked out you will start to see teams get more aggressive with their signings, albeit at the 11th hour. I’ll bet that we see a Manny deal after the Dodgers have finished dealing with all of their arbitration eligible players that they have left. And after Manny goes, so will Dunn, Abreu, and others. The same will go for pitching; clubs will make stronger offers to pitchers like Oliver Perez, Ben Sheets, Randy Wolf, and Jon Garland after they finish hammering out salaries for their existing staff.

I’m not sure why this is being treated like such a white elephant and I am also not aware of anyone else that has pointed this out. It seems pretty clear that clubs are holding back on contracts for good reasons.  Other than the overall economic situations, which are all relevant to each team’s specific market, currently it is the uncertainty over what clubs will have to pay via arbitration or new contracts for arbitration eligible players.

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