A Case For Sabermetrics

So, in these posts the past few months I have given you all a brief definition of Sabermetrics and then given you a few key stats (VORP and RC), but now, as an aside, I felt it necessary to give you more of a why.

We will do this by analyzing the 2008 year of Red Sox DH David Ortiz compared to his previous two years as a member of the Boston Red Sox to see if his skills are diminishing due to his age (33) and body type (large). It has been widely reported this off season, that Ortiz is quite possibly on the decline.

Personally, I think it has more to do with his ailing knees that were operated on prior to the 2008 season, but too close to spring training for them to heal properly. Then add to that, the freakish wrist sheath injury that limited him to 109 games. He shook it off for a while upon his return from the DL, but he started feeling or hearing a (pain-free) clicking in the injured wrist down the stretch run. Tell me what team-oriented player wouldn’t be affected by that in a playoff race and especially when he’s the teams 3 or 4 hitter.

I choose the two years prior to 2008 due to their close proximity to last year and their significance, they were considered his best seasons as a pro. In 2006, Ortiz hit a career high in HRs (54, a new Red Sox record), ISO (.349) and his third best RBI total (137). In 2007, he scored his second highest Runs total (116), his best BA and OBP (.332 and .445).

To do this, we will look at his G, R, HR, RBI, BA, OBP, SLG, ISO, BB Rate, SO Rate, FB%, GB%, LINEDR%, POPUP%, BABIP and HRR.

The new metrics in this post are BABIP, which is batting average on balls in play; LINEDR% is the rate of line drives hit; FB% % is the rate of fly balls hit; ISO, which is his isolated power numbers (in terms of extra bases per AB); BB Rate is the percentage of plate appearances that result in a walk; SO Rate is the percentage of plate appearances that result in a strike out; GB% is the rate of ground balls; POPUP% is the rate of pop ups hit and HRR is the rate of HR hit per AB.

By the Numbers

First, let’s take a look at the similarities between these three years. His strike out rate (SO Rate) and HR rate (HRR) matched that of his 2007 numbers (his 2006 HRR was 8%, 3% higher than 2007 and 2008), his ground ball percentage (GB%) and line drive percentage (LINEDR%) matched that of his 2006 season (his GB% was 1% lower than 2007) and his BABIP was only .001 lower than his 2006 season (.273 to .274).

Second, let’s take a look at the differences between these three years. We will avoid the following stats (R, HR and RBI) because they were directly affected by only playing in 109 games as opposed to 149 and 151 in the other two years. His BA of .264 was the lowest of his career when playing in 100+ games (he hit .234 with the Twins in 2001 while playing in 89 games). His OBP was .369 was tied for the lowest it’s been as a member of the Red Sox since 2003 (it had been .380 or as high as .445 between 2004-2007).

His 2008 slugging (SLG) of .507 and .243 isolated power (ISO) were both the lowest marks as a member of the Red Sox. His walk rate (BB Rate) was down 3% in 2008, but it was still higher than it was in his first two seasons in Boston (both were at 11%). His flyball rate (FB%) was down 5% depending on which site you use (Baseball Prospectus or FanGraphs) so we will call this one even as FanGraphs does. His pop up percentage was up 4% from 2008 to 2006 and 7% from 2008 to 2007.

My analysis

Given this analysis, I truly believe that Ortiz was more affected by his ailing knees which were still bothering him after off season surgery. This ailment alone caused him not to be able to drive the ball as easily as he has in the past. The health of the lower body of a power hitter like Ortiz if pivotal to his power numbers and Ortiz was learning how to be productive in spite of not having his full weight behind his swings.

Then came the freakish torn tendon sheath in his left wrist. Now remember, for lefties, their left wrist is the one that is in back and having problems with that back wrist would impede Ortiz to drive the ball as well. Players don’t usually let go with their hand that’s in back until after contact. I’m not sure if this had any other impact, but he has also had past concerns with his shoulder, too. Therefore, nothing else really strikes me as being a concern that David Ortiz is in decline, but only time will tell for sure.

My 2009 David Ortiz Projection

If healthy (knees, wrist and shoulder), I expect to see Ortiz put up the following numbers:

G: 150 R: 101 HR: 31 RBI: 122  BA:  .280  OBP: .380  SLG: .615  ISO: .290  BABIP: .290

Peter Schiller also writes monthly for Seamheads.com and almost daily at his personal baseball blog, Baseball Reflections.com. Please follow the links to read his work at these two other sites.

Sabermetrics 101: Runs Created

Runs Created or RC is a tool created by Bill James in an attempt to calculate how many runs an individual player creates for his team. If you follow James, then you probably know of RC already, but if you don’t and you are tired of the same old stats then you may want to pay close attention to this post. Here is how important RC is in Bill James own words:

Statistically speaking, RC is the player’s ability to get on base (his on base factor ) multiplied by his chance of advancing (his advancement factor) divided by his overall possible opportunities (his opportunity factor). To get these figures, James took a players hits plus walks (H + BB) total and multiplied that by his total bases (TB), then divides that by the total of his at bats (AB + BB) in it’s most basic form. To see the variations at which James takes into consideration, just follow this link or the previous one. The basic version of this stat gives the user an accurate measurement with a 5% margin of error and with the more complex variations that number decreases (see note # 3).

Runs created, if used correctly, can assist those looking for an edge (that is if your competitors aren’t already using it also) in player evaluation. This tool helps you to see the true value of a player’s offensive prowess in the most important stat of scoring runs which is what wins games. Right? After all, you could have the best pitching and defense on the field but if you don’t score any runs you can’t win the game.

Don’t get me wrong, I do believe in defense and especially good quality pitching, but as far as offense goes RC is one of the most important stats on the market.

For some external links on RC, please follow the previous link provided by Baseball-Reference.

All links and Notes found in this post come from Wikipedia on Runs Created.

Note 1: James, Bill (1985). The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (1st ed.), pp. 273-4. Villard. ISBN 0-394-53713-0.

Note 3: James, Bill (2002). Win Shares, p. 90. STATS, Inc. Publishing. ISBN 1-931584-03-6.

Peter Schiller also writes monthly for Seamheads.com and almost daily at his personal baseball blog, Baseball Reflections.com. Please follow the links to read his work at these two other sites.

Sabermetrics 101: VORP

For those of you who did not read my first post here on RBI Magazine, here is the textbook description of VORP thanks to Baseball Prospectus.com.

VORP stands for Value Over Replacement Player, which is broken down as the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances.

However, Wikipedia defines value over replacement player (or VORP) in a slightly different way.

In baseball, value over replacement player (or VORP) is a statistic invented by Keith Woolner that demonstrates how much a hitter contributes offensively or how much a pitcher contributes to his team in comparison to a fictitious “replacement player,” who is an average fielder at his position and a below average hitter.[1] [2] A replacement player performs at “replacement level,” which is the level of performance an average team can expect when trying to replace a player at minimal cost, also known as “freely available talent.”

Although VORP sounds funny, it can be a very useful tool for the Sabermetrician or the fantasy baseball player/owner. It can help you to decide if a player is just on a hot streak or if he’s the real deal. Compare his VORP to others at his position and make wiser decisions in your league. What VORP does not take into consideration is a player’s defensive ability. This is one of the flaws I see in this statistic.

Here’s what Wikipedia says about the usefulness of VORP.

VORP’s usefulness is in the fact that it measures contribution at the margin (as in marginal utility). Other statistics compare players to the league average, which is good for cross-era analysis (example: 90 runs created in 1915 are much better than 90 RC in 1996, because runs were more scarce in 1915). However, league-average comparisons break down when considering a player’s total, composite contribution to a team. Baseball is a zero-sum game; in other words, one team can only win if another loses. A team wins by scoring more runs than its opponent. It follows, then, that a contribution of any runs helps a team toward a win, no matter how small the contribution. However, the Major Leagues are highly competitive, and talent distribution in baseball does not resemble normal distribution’s traditional “bell curve”; rather, the majority of players fall within the category of “below-average” or worse. Therefore, the so-called “average player” does not have a value of zero, like in Pete Palmer’s Total Player Rating, but instead is a valued commodity. One alternative is to rank players using “counting stats” — simply their gross totals — but this is unacceptable as well, since it is likely that the contribution a marginal player makes, even if it does help a team win one game, is not enough to justify his presence in the Majors. This is where the concept of the replacement level enters the picture.

As far as fantasy value goes, I think that VORP is a good tool for evaluating offensive talent given the above matrixes, but for MLB in general, I’d prefer to see a statistic developed that combines VORP with one’s deffensive aptitude. What do you think?

Next time out we will discuss the Sabermetric stat by the name of Runs Created which was mentioned above.

Peter Schiller also writes monthly for Seamheads.com and almost daily at his personal baseball blog, Baseball Reflections.com. Please follow the hyperlinks to read his work at these two other sites.

Sabermetrics 101: An Introduction

Let start off with the Wikipedia definition of the term, Sabermetrics. Sabermetrics is the analysis of baseball through objective evidence, especially baseball statistics. The term is derived from the acronym SABR, which stands for the Society for American Baseball Research. It was coined by Bill James, who was among its first proponents and has long been its most prominent and public advocate.
In the next few posts that I do here in RBI Magazine, we will explore some traditional sabermetric tools of the trade. This methodology was made famous by Bill James, but it really didn’t get public notoriety until Michael Lewis’ book Moneyball hit bookstores. In his book, Lewis follows the change in methodology in evaluating talent in the Oakland A’s organization that was spearheaded by GM Billy Beane.

Beane changed his methodology in an attempt to find a creative way to compete with the big market teams such as the NY Yankees, Boston Red Sox, NY Mets, LA Dodgers and Angels (to name a few).

And it worked! The small market team from Oakland, CA became annual participants in October baseball by either beating out the Angels for the division title or via the Wild Card slot. This has worked for them until, as usual, the rest of baseball caught up with them, including the big market teams like Boston.

What does this mean for the average fan? You no longer have to rely only on offensive statistical categories such as batting average (BA), runs scored (R), runs batted in (RBI), home runs (HR), but now you have on base percentage (OBP), on base plus slugging (OPS), runs created (RC), value over replacement players (VORP) and a host of others.

These tools can make or break your fantasy team if you have the time to delve into it deeply enough. They are also to stat geek’s tools of the trade and the love of baseball economists everywhere.

If you love stats and don’t yet know much about Sabermetrics, you’re going to love this series and if love is too strong of a word for you, then we’ll say that you’re really going to enjoy the next few posts in this series.

If you’re a novice with Sabermetrics, feel free to ask me to cover a specific statistic and I’ll be happy to give it a go or point you in the right direction if it’s beyond the scope of this series. See you next time…

Peter also writes once a month for Seamheads.com and on a regular basis on his own site, Baseball Reflections.com.

Visit my Blog at:

http://www.baseballreflections.com

The All Time Best VORP for Second Basemen Since 1954

A reader of mine recently asked me if Boston Red Sox 2B Dustin Pedroia had the best VORP at his position this year (2008) than any other player before him. But before I go further, some of you might be asking, “What in the world is VORP anyway?”. According to Baseball Prospectus, VORP stands for Value Over Replacement Player, which is broken down as the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances.

VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player’s defense. Researching this was a bit tedious, but well worth it! The Baseball Prospectus database has gone as far back as 1954 in calculating VORP. What I found out is that Pedroia, depsite all of the MVP talk he’s getting, just beat out the Phillies’ Chase Utley by a tenth of a point in VORP this year, 63.3 to 63.2. In comparing him to the all time leaders at second base, he didn’t even finish in the top 20.

The top player at this position with a VORP of 98.8, which is 35.5 points higher than Pedroia, was Chuck Knoblauch in 1996. For the remainder of the top 20, please see the chart below. So much for Pedroia having the best VORP ever by a second baseman!

In fact, Utley, for all of his offensive hype, just made the top 20 with his stellar performance in 2007 with a score of 68.8 (the same score Ryne Sandberg had in 1984)! Between Pedroia’s 63.3 and the top 20 list provided below there are 10 other higher scores from 4 players who are already in the top 20 and 4 others who are not (Bobby Grich, Willie Randolph, Mark Loretta and Jose Vidro).

Therefore, the bottom line is that Pedroia’s 2008 VORP of 63.3 ranks only 31st on the all time VORP list for second basemen. I hope that helps give people some perspective, but don’t let this conclusion fool you. Pedroia still had a very good year, but it just goes to show you that you shouldn’t jump to conclusions about how great of a year a player either is having or has had without digging a little deeper into past performances.

Year    Player                           VORP
1996    Chuck Knoblauch 98.8
1976    Joe  Morgan 94.2
2000    Jeff  Kent                      92.7
1975    Joe  Morgan                  91.6
1996    Roberto  Alomar 85.1
2001    Roberto  Alomar           81.6
1998    Craig  Biggio                80.5
1997    Craig  Biggio                79.8
1974    Joe  Morgan                  79.8
1999    Roberto  Alomar           77.9
2002    Jeff  Kent 77.7
1973    Joe  Morgan                  77.7
2001    Bret  Boone 77.4
2000    Edgardo  Alfonzo 76.9
1974    Rod  Carew 76.5
1975    Rod  Carew                   75.4
1993    Roberto  Alomar           75.2
1972    Joe  Morgan                  74.1
1977    Joe  Morgan                  71.8
1995    Chuck  Knoblauch        71.6
1991    Julio  Franco 70.1
2007    Chase  Utley 68.8
1984    Ryne  Sandberg 68.8

Peter Schiller also writes for BaseballReflections.com, which he started in October 2007. To see more of his work over the past year, please follow the link

provided. He also writes for Seamheads.com once a month.