Jacoby Ellsbury Makes First Ever Error

As Fenway Park met a milestone at last night’s game selling out the seats for the 500th time, another milestones came to an end.

In a game against the Florida Marlins, center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury dropped a fly ball in center field ending his streak of 232 games without an error. It was also his first ever error in his Major League Baseball career!

According to MassLive.com, in 2008, Ellsbury became the first rookie outfielder in major league history with a 1.000 fielding percentage, among those with enough chances to qualify for statistical ranking.

The line drive “shot” that was hit to the left-center gap, brushed the end of Ellsury’s glove and eventually rolled to the wall. At first, the scoring decision showed a double for Florida Marlins first basemen Jorge Cantu, but it was eventually changed to be recorded as an error.

Ellsbury made up for the error however, hitting his third homerun of the season shortly after.

2009 San Diego Padres Preview

2008 Record: 63-99
Key Additions: David Eckstein, Walter Silva

Key Subtractions: Khalil Greene, Trevor Hoffman

A Look at the Line Up:

C – Nick Hundley is only 25 years old and had trouble adjusting to major league pitching during last season’s call up. He hit .237 in 198 at bats but has shown some pop in the minor, cranking 20 jacks in AA in 2007. He will be a fun young catcher to watch this season as he could breakout. He will get all the chances in the world to prove himself on this team.

1B – Adrian Gonzalez is THE best player the Padres have and one of the premiere first basemen in the league. He’s coming off of a great World Baseball Classic where he led the Mexico team with his ability to hit for power, average, and play great defense. He will do the same for the Padres this year. Adrian will be the one bright star to gaze upon in what looks to be a rough season for this team.

2B – David Eckstein was acquired this off season and will bring the veteran presence this team needs as well as consistent at bats and fielding. Edgar Gonzalez, Adrian’s older brother will back him up and could challenge Eckstein for at bats if allowed the chance this year. Eckstein will likely bat second behind Giles and in front of Adrian Gonzalez, which means that he will see a lot of good pitches this year!

SS – Luis Rodriguez looks to anchor the SS position with Greene gone. Rodriguez will form a good double play tandem with Eckstein as the Padres look to be very sound defensively in the middle infield.  He hit .287 filling in for Greene last season but doesn’t steal much or hit for power so he will be a contact hitter and nothing else.

3B — Kevin Kouzmanoff will once again field the hot corner for the Padres. Kouz could break out this year as well. He improved last season and has huge potential. Unfortunately he is on a bad team. But I can’t think of a better situation than to bat cleanup behind Adrian Gonzalez which is why I consider him for a potential breakout season.

RF – Brian Giles is getting up there in age and I am not sure if he should still be leading off for the Padres, but he will. Giles hits for average still, around .300 and will knock 10-15 home runs. He will also play a steady RF but I would not expect him to steal many bags this year, again, he is aging.

CF – Jody Gerut was a rookie sensation with Cleveland in 2003 and then faded into obscutity after being traded twice in 2005. He did not play any baseball, not even in the minors, in 2006 and 2007. Well the Padres were in need last season and gave him a shot. He delivered superbly hitting .296 with 14 homers in 328 games. He’s only 31 and that’s not too old and will likely bat 5th behind Kouz.

LF – Chase Headley is the man to watch this season. The 24 year old, with a .301 average in the minors, played well in a call up last season, batting .269 with 9 home runs in 91 games. He is definitely the biggest sleeper and breakout candidate as this kid has a lot of talent. He projects to be a .300/20 HR buy and could achieve that this year.
A look at the pitching:

SP – Look no further than staff ace Jake Peavy. He is virtually unhittable at home boasting a 1.74 ERA but only going 5-5 because of a poor supporting cast. Peavy has been discussed as trade bait as the Padres look to cut payroll following a nasty divorce hearing involving the owner and the pending sale of the club. They figure finish last or finish last minus the $11 million Peavy will earn this year. Scouts are saying he looks as sharp as ever this spring after a terrible World Baseball Classic.

Chris Young looks to rebound from an injury plaged 2008 which saw him take a Pujols line drive off the face fracturing the nose and skull and some forearm tightness. He is topping out in the mid 80s this spring and that will not cut it for him, he needs to be  in the low 90s. He has had a poor spring with some tendinitis to boot so I do not expect Young to do well this year.

The rest of the staff is full of has beens and never will bes. Shawn Hill came over after being released by another club and may contend for the 5th starter position and 32 year old rookie Walter Silva looks like a great pickup from the Mexican league.

Outlook:
Not good. The team is predicted to finish last by everyone, and I mean everyone. The organization is in transition of ownership and they are trying to move their all world pitcher Jake Peavy because of his salary. It’s a poor situation for players like Peavy and Gonzalez but there is a lot of opportunity for many of the organization’s young prospects to breakout and get major league experience. But alas, they will finish last. Hey, at least they have a great ball park!

Prediction:
Headley will breakout, Peavy will get traded for some great prospects, Gerut will have a great season and Young will falter. 59-103 will give them the worst record in the NL this season.

2009 Los Angeles Dodgers Preview

2008 Record: 84-78 1st Place
Key Additions: Orlando Hudson, Randy Wolf, Mark Loretta, Guillermo Mota, Will Ohman
Key Subtractions: Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Takashi Saito, Jeff Kent, Nomar Garciaparra, Joe Beimel, Andruw Jones, Scott Proctor

A Look at the Line Up:
C – Russel Martin is going to play better this year, and he played just great last year but I think that people were expecting a little more. He will be taking more time off and realizes that he needs that to stay healthy. But he has always been one of those guys that plays like his hair is on fire and I’ll bet if the Dodgers are in a close race he will lobby hard to play every day.

1B – James Loney is a solid and consistent player that hardly ever misses a game. People are still waiting for the power to come to his bat and may have to wait a bit longer as this spring has seen a light hitting Loney so far. He is still very young and has time to develop his power still. He will get a lot of RBIs in the new high powered Dodgers offense so I project him to have over 100 RBIs this season and at least 20 HRs.

2B – Orlando Hudson is a cool cat, a great clubhouse guy and outstanding person. So he will definitely help keep this team together but I am not sure about his play or his health. The wrist injury from last season will apparently always be with him, he will never recover 100% from it.

He had to learn how to field balls differently because his wrist is so jacked up that it doesn’t bend the way it used to. So far though his fielding has been stellar and with Furcal at SS we figure to see plenty of web gems from the best double play tandem in all of baseball this season. He will be surrounded by great hitters in Furcal at leadoff and Manny in the 3 hole so he will see many good pitches to hit this year. A definitely upgrade at 2B this year.

SS – Rafael Furcal seems all healed from the back injury that ruined his 2008 season. He was on a torrid pace before the injury so I expect a career year from him batting in this Dodgers lineup, if he can stay healthy. He has been diligently performing his back and core strengthening exercises that are supposed to help his back stay healthy. Furcal is ready for a World Series run in 09 for the Dodgers.

3B – Casey Blake, poor Casey Blake. He is still getting trashed by fans online who want more out of the 3B position. But he is as steady and veteran as they come. He will bat 8th and hits about 20 HRs while batting about .280. To me those are great numbers for the 8 spot! I like Blake and feel that he will contribute greatly to this team.

RF – Andre Ethier was the Dodgers best hitter last year, excluding Manny, and figures to build off of that again this year. I still think that he should hit in the number 2 spot in front of Manny which is where he had great success last season but it appears that Hudson will fill that spot in the order. That means that Ethier could hit in the 4-6 spot. Most people feel that Kemp has more potential because of his size and athleticism but I feel that Ethier brings the talent and attitude required to succeed at the major league level.

CF – Matt Kemp is still projected to be a stud. He was good last season and finished just behind Ethier in stats, but with a  rather high strikeout rate. He plans on cutting that back this year with better discipline, a year’s experience under the belt, and new contact lenses that have him seeing the ball better at the plate and picking up the ball off the bat in center. Kemp could be a 30-30 guy this year and projects to bat somewhere in the 5-7 spots.

LF – Manny Ramirez, he’s baaaaaack. Nothing more to say here except that pitchers had better watch out! The dodgers just need to make sure that he is protected in the lineup because I see many more walks in his future this season.

A look at the pitching:

SP – The biggest perceived weakness for the Dodgers is pitching. But the good news is that their farm system is stocked full of great arms that could step in this season and surprise. Jason Schmidt could provide a pleasant surprise this season but will not be game ready until about mid May. James McDonald is the real thing, and will start the season as the fifth starter. Randy Wolf looks set for a solid season, he will not jump out at you but will provide solid innings of work. And Hiroki Kuroda and Chad Billingsley really need to step up this season and lead the staff. Clayton Kershaw will achieve ace status this season and he is really fun to watch.

RP – Jonathon Broxton looks to step in and take over closing duties with the departure of Saito. The rest of the relief core is up in the air as far as how they will perform this season. But the late acquisition of Will Ohman to fill the lefty specialist role will help anchor things. Again the minors are stocked with both veteran and rookie arms that can step in and help.

Outlook:

The Dodgers should produce one of the premier offenses in baseball this year but they need to stay healthy, especially at pitching. I still think that the pitching staff will end up being a lot better than everyone thinks and that would be dangerous for other clubs. The Dodgers still have money to spend and may spend it on another starting pitcher or to fill another unforeseen need during the season. Oh, and as soon as somebody losses a center fielder Juan Pierre will most likely be traded.

Prediction:

92-70 will earn the Dodgers the division this year. I just don’t think that the Diamondbacks or the Giants or the Rockies have enough talent to keep up with them all season.

2009 Cincinnati Reds Preview

In an effort to get every preview done by the season opener, you may notice that some of the team previews will be of the shorter variety. With some of the “extra information” not included, this should make for an easier read. Enjoy!

Key Additions: Ramon Hernandez, Arthur Rhodes, Willy Taveras, Micah Owings

Key Subtractions: Corey Patterson, Jeremy Affeldt, Josh Fogg, Javier Valentin, David Ross, Ryan Freel, Jeff Keppinger

A look at the lineup:

CA – Ramon Hernandez was acquired from the Orioles and will be the everyday catcher and hit seventh. Ryan Hanigan is expected to be his backup.

1B – Joey Votto is back at first base and will be the three hitter. Jonny Gomes will be his backup.

2B – Brandon Phillips is the first baseman and will hit cleanup. Paul Janish add depth.

SS – Alex Gonzalez will the starting shortstop and will hit eighth. Janish and Adam Rosales are the reserves.

3B – Edwin Encarnacion returns at the hot corner and will hit in the middle of the order. Jeff Hairston and Rosales could see work off the bench.

LF – Rookie Chris Dickerson will be the start in left field and is expected to hit second. Gomes and Hairston are the backups.

CF – Willy Tavares was brought to town to lead off and man center field. Dickerson could also see time in center.

RF – Jay Bruce will hit fifth and man right field. Hairston is the reserve.

A look at the pitching:

Starters – Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto make up four-fifths of what is a very talented pitching rotation. Newcomer Micah Owings will be the fifth starter. Homer Bailey could also see a few spot starts.

Relievers – Francisco Cordero is back at closer. Eating up the innings out of the bullpen will be David Weathers, Mike Lincoln, Arthur Rhodes, Jared Burton, Bill Bray, Daniel Ray Herrera, and Nick Masset.

Outlook:

A lot of people are pegging the Reds as a sleeper team in 2009 and you can include me in that group. Don’t get me wrong, they are not the “Rays of 2009”, but they should be competitive in the NL Central. They have a very talented rotation and a solid core of young bats, which should be a recipe for success down the road.

Prediction:

The Reds will hang in the divisional race throughout most of the season, but they will not be able to overtake the Cubs for the division crown. Expect a second place finish at 83-79.

2009 Philadelphia Phillies Preview

Key Additions: LF Raul Ibanez, SP Chan Ho Park, RP Gary Majewski, INF Marcus Giles, OF John Mayberry, INF Miguel Cairo, RP Jack Taschner

Key Subtractions: LF Pat Burrell, OF So Taguchi, RP Tom Gordon, SP Adam Eaton, RP Les Walrond

A look at the lineup:

Catcher: Carlos Ruiz struggled with the bat from day one in 2008, but if his past is any indicator, the guy can still hit.  He may never figure it out on this level, but Ruiz hit over .300 in triple-A just a few years ago, so the potential is there.  The question is: can he take a step forward, because last year he went in the wrong direction.  Chris Coste is the backup, and he can hit for some power, but he’ll be on bench duty all year.

First Base: Ryan Howard is a beast and everyone knows it.  The only problem is, can he cut out the long swoons and be on more of an even keel for an entire year? If he were to do that, his numbers would be astronomical.  However, Howard has not proven to be that sort of guy, so we’ll have to go with what we know.  And that’s power, strikeouts, and a few giant months tossed in.

Second Base: We didn’t realize it at the time, but Chase Utley’s hip injury was serious.  His power stroke struggled by mid-season and after demolishing pitching in the first half (25 homers) he finished with a limp.  Utley has deemed himself prepared for opening day in ’09, and that bodes well.  Expect a slow start as he kicks the cobwebs, but as the best second baseman in baseball, expect greatness for a whole year.

Shortstop: Jimmy Rollins was an MVP.  Then he wasn’t.  The 2008 season was much different for him after an ankle injury killed him in the beginning of the year.  However, Rollins is healthy and showed he’s ready after a spectacular World Baseball Classic.  Look for steals and hopefully for the power we once saw.  Plus, he’s awesome in the field, which is just as vital to the success of the Philies.

Third Base: It was a long year for Pedro Feliz, as a bad back derailed him early, and he never really got going. After four straight seasons of 20-plus homers in San Francisco, Feliz dropped a dud, smacking just 14 on the year.  His back is fixed, but is his bat?  Greg Dobbs and Eric Bruntlett did a fine job in his absence, but I would rather see Feliz for a whole year.

Left Field: Goodbye Pat Burrell, hello Raul Ibanez.  The former Mariner outfielder is a model of consistency, something Pat the Bat clearly was not.  Will it translate to the NL?  Ibanez is aging, but gracefully.  And he should have plenty of opportunities to knock in runs with this offense.

Center Field: Shane Victorino was marvelous in centerfield, playing stellar D and posting career highs in every offensive category.  He too was included in the WBC and now finds himself among the elite outfielders in entire game.  My they grow up quickly.

Right Field: Another blossoming outfielder is Jayson Werth.  He gave the Phillies fans a new cult hero to love after slamming 24 homers in just over 400 at-bats.  The potential is there for something special, but he needs to cut down on the K’s.

A look at the pitching:

Starters: Cole Hamels is the man.  Hollywood, as they call him in the clubhouse, won several postseason awards and made himself a household name.  The one problem with Hamels is his elbow, which has bothered him throughout the spring, but he should be ready for the first week.  The Phillies are hoping he can stay healthy again for a full year after pitching over 250 innings in 2008, by far the most he’s ever been on the mound.  Hamels did not get much run support last season, so if he can this year, it could mean 18 wins.

With the middle three spots of the rotation, you basically know exactly what you’ll get. Brett Myers will once again be the opening day starter (only by default) and will once again start the season as the biggest mystery.  He has all the potential in the world, but have we seen the best from him already?  Every year we wonder when Myers will win 16 or more games, and it has yet to happen.  Will this be the year? If the past is any factor, he will once again toy with the fans and give us around 13 wins.

Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton are also back in the middle of the solid rotation.  Moyer continues to defy the odds, but how much more is left in the tank?  He has had a so-so spring, so the talks of aging will be there all year, good or bad.  Blanton was terrific last season, and was a huge part of why the Phillies now have a second World Series title.  Joe the Pitcher will not wow you with his stuff, but he has a steady hand.  Expect about 13 wins and an ERA in the 4’s, but you can’t get much better as a number three or four.

Chan Ho Park is the wild card here.  He is the new fifth starter, and if his spring performance is an indicator of things to come, the Phils could have a steal.  Park beat out J.A. Happ for the final position and while his past is not pretty, it’s all about looking ahead.  His stuff is on point with a blazing fastball and beautiful off-speed pitches thrown in.  The Phillies just hope he can last a whole year, after last seasons debacle with Kyle Kendrick and Adam Eaton.  If not, Happ waits in the wings.

Bullpen: One of the best bullpens in baseball in 2008, the team will be hard pressed to provide a repeat performance this season. Brad Lidge did not blow a save and finished 4th in the Cy Young voting.  Ryan Madson was a new man in the set-up role he shared with lefty J.C. Romero.  Romero will be missing for 50 games after being suspended for using performance-enhancing drugs.

Scott Eyre, Clay Condrey, and Chad Durbin are all back and although they each had very good 2008 seasons, it’s going to be hard to get much more out of them.  As of this writing, we still await word as to who will join this crew.  J.A. Happ, Gary Majewski, and Jack Taschner are vying for two spots.  Happ would be used for long-relief, so there is a very good chance he stays.  Majewski and Taschner are a toss up at this point, with Majewski having been in camp longer.  Look for him to have the slight edge.

Prediction: It’s hard to go against a team that won it all the previous season.  So I won’t do that now.  They have basically the same team once again, so why can’t they win the NL East?  The Phillies and Mets will lock horns for 162 more games, but as of now the Phillies look to have the superior talent.  Look for 90 wins and another postseason invitation.

2009 Chicago White Sox Preview

Key Additions:  Wilson Betemit (IF), Bartolo Colon (SP), Brent Lillibridge (IF) and Jayson Nix (2B)

Key Subtractions:  Orlando Cabrera (SS), Joe Crede (3B), Boone Logan (RP), Nick Swisher (OF), Juan Uribe (IF) and Javier Vazquez (SP)

A look at the lineup:  The lineup is full of a mixture of seasoned veterans (Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome) and youngsters (Alexei Ramirez, Chris Getz and Dewayne Wise), but it is the bat of Carlos Quentin that they’ll be paying the most attention to.  You’ve likely heard plenty about Quentin and his MVP potential…but is he for real?

Catcher:  AJ Pierzinski.  AJ has been nothing if not serviceable for the Sox.  His four years on the Southside have seen him hit ..274 with an average of 15 home runs and 58 RBI.  Behind the plate, he seemingly handles the staff well…but he showed decline by only throwing out 18% of would-be-stealers.  At 32 years old, the Sox are hoping he can hang on, as they have no one in the pipeline.

First Base:  Paul Konerko.  The Sox longest-tenured player (he’s made a franchise record eight straight Opening Day starts) appears to be on the decline.  He sent 22 balls over the fence, but after averaging 37 bombs a season from 2004-2007…a departure from those numbers is troublesome.  Chicago’s infield is entering the season much younger with Fields, Getz and Ramirez, so it is safe to say they’ll start looking for a youth movement over at first soon.

Second Base:  Chris Getz.  Getz came out of Spring Training as the leader at second, but that isn’t to say that Lillibridge and Nix won’t see some action.  Expect Getz to hover around .270-.280, but don’t expect a ton of power…his career high in his four years in the minors was only 11.

Shortstop:  Alexei Ramirez.  Last year’s breakout second baseman for the Sox is this year’s breakout shortstop.  What people don’t remember is that last year’s Rookie of the Year runner up (Ramirez lost out to Tampa Bay’s Evan Longoria) played out of position at second.  The Cuban set a major league record for grand slams hit by a rookie with four and this season, he looks to continue to show some swagger at the plate.  Of his 21 bombs in 2008…14 were after the All-Star break!

Third Base:  Josh Fields.  Finally!  The Josh Fields Experiment begins…again.  Two seasons ago, Fields filled in for Joe Crede and surprised the White Sox brass with 23 home runs in 100 games.  Last season, a healthy Crede kept Fields in the Minors for a majority of the season.  Since Crede was let go, conventional wisdom says that Fields is a sure bet to keep the job at third.  However, there is a reason why the Sox traded for Wilson Betemit.

Leftfield:  Carlos Quentin.  Quentin was the odds on favorite to take home the AL MVP Award last season before he broke his wrist with a month to go in the season.  And despite the injury, Quentin was only one home run (36) off the league best 37 of Miguel Cabrera.  “Q-uperman” also led the AL in at bats per home run with 13.3.  The big question is whether or not the Jose Canseco look-a-like Quentin for real or not.  Only time will tell.

Centerfield:  Dewayne Wise.  At 31, the speedy Wise finally gets his chance to be an every day player…but for how long?  GM Kenny Williams let US Cellular fave Aaron Rowand go a few years back in order to give Brian Anderson a shot and that failed.  Will Wise be a “wise” (sorry, couldn’t resist) or another reason why Williams should’ve rewarded Rowand with a contract?

Rightfield:  Jermaine Dye.  Dye and Konerko are both two long balls from 300 career home runs, but the real quiz isn’t who will get to the milestone first…it is who will be with the Sox the longest?  Dye is the biggest power threat on the Southside, and that’s saying something given the other bats in that lineup.  Last season, he hovered around .300 all season (he finished at .292) and ended up 34 bombs and 96 RBI.

Designated Hitter:  Jim Thome.  “Peoria Jim” enters the season with 541 home runs. He’ll likely jump over Harmon Killebrew’s total (573) this season and, along with Alex Rodriguez, is inching closer and closer to the 600 mark.  Also of note, Thome is 12 RBI away from hitting 1500 and aside from Harold Baines (1628) and Andre Dawson (1591), everyone who has 1500 or more RBI and is Hall eligible…has had their ticket punched.

A look at the pitching:

Starters:  White Sox starters combined for an AL leading 93 quality starts last season…they won 67.  So what’s the problem?  Mark Buehrle (15-12, 3.79) has started six openers for the Sox and is one away from Billy Pierce’s club record.  That being said, he is the only starter left from the 2005 team that won it all.

Joining Buehrle are John Danks and Gavin Floyd.  The dynamic duo combined for 29 wins and should adequately fill the void that Javier Vazquez left behind.  But that’s where it ends…and that is the main problem that Chicago has.

Brought in to fill the gaping hole in the starting rotation was Bartolo Colon who appears to be a million miles and 120 pounds from his 2005 Cy Young Award winning form.  A once promising hurler (eight straight seasons with 14 or more wins to start his career), Colon is not going to be enough to save the last half of the Sox starting rotation.

And unfortunately, no one else is either.

Bullpen:  Last season, closer Bobby Jenks did something that no other Sox reliever (not even Bobby Thigpen) was able to accomplish…three straight seasons with 30 or more saves.  Jenks, who was once clocked at 103 mph, has lost plenty on his fastball and, unfortunately, doesn’t have a whole lot more to trick hitters.  In 2006, Jenks baffled hitters and ended up striking out 80 in less than 70 innings.  Last season, he fanned only 38 in just over 60 innings.  If the Sox can find out how to stop his decline, Jenks (along with Octavio Dotel and Scott Linebrink) will be formidable.  If not…it’s going to be a long season for the bullpen.

Outlook:  Last season’s American League Central Division champs became the first team ever to win three consecutive elimination games against three different teams.  This season, it is very possible that they’ll be trailing the three teams they beat (Cleveland, Detroit and Minnesota) if they don’t start winning right out of the gate.  While it isn’t the best division in baseball, the AL Central will be one of the most competitive.

Plenty of people are predicting the Chi-Sox to finish near the bottom of the division.  Some are even saying that the Kansas City Royals will have their number…but I won’t go THAT far.  This group of perennial overachievers led the Majors with 235 dingers and hit 143 of them at US Cellular on their way to a .659 home winning percentage. They will put up those numbers again soon…just not in 2009.

Prediction: Ozzie Guillen’s mixture of veterans and unproven youngsters leaves little margin for error.  Unfortunately, while the top half of the starting pitching will be good, the bats (oft-injured and a year older) won’t keep up their end of the bargin.  Expect 75-80 wins this year from the Southsiders.

Check out Jesus Melendez from http://hallofverygood.blogspot.com!

2009 Colorado Rockies Preview

In an effort to get every preview done by the season opener, you may notice that some of the team previews will be of the shorter variety. With some of the “extra information” not included, this should make for an easier read. Enjoy!

Key Additions: Huston Street, Greg Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, Jason Marquis

Key Subtractions: Matt Holliday, Luis Vizcaino, Brian Fuentes

A look at the lineup:

CA – Chris Iannetta is back at catcher and is expected to hit sixth. Yorvit Torrealba will be the backup.

1B – Todd Helton returns to first base and will hit third. Jeff Baker and Ian Stewart will see action as the reserves.

2B – Clint Barmes will begin the season as the team’s starting second baseman and will hit eighth. He will be pressed hard for time by Stewart and Baker.

SS – Troy Tulowitzki is back as the shortstop and will hit second. Barmes could also see work at shortstop and Omar Quintanilla should see some action as well.

3B – Garrett Atkins is back at third base and will be asked to contribute some pop from the cleanup spot in the order. Stewart is the backup.

LF – Seth Smith will get a majority of the work in left field and will likely hit seventh. Dexter Fowler will be the primary reserve.

CF – Ryan Spilborghs will be the centerfielder and is expected to lead off. Fowler and Scott Podsednik are the backups.

RF – Brad Hawpe is back in right field and will hit fifth. Fowler and Stewart add depth.

A look at the pitching:

Starters – Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Marquis, and Jorge De La Rosa will be the 1-through-4 options in the Rockies’ rotation. Franklin Morales is expected to be the fifth starter. Josh Fogg, Greg Reynolds, Greg Smith, and Glendon Rusch will also compete for starts.

Relievers – Colorado is one of the few teams with a very cloudy closer situation going into the season. Both Manuel Corpas and Huston Street are likely to get work in the ninth inning. Taylor Buchholz, Ryan Speier, and Jason Grilli will be the go-to middle relievers. Alan Embree, Matt Belisle, and Juan Morillo will duke it out for the rest of the innings.

Outlook:

The trade of Matt Holliday makes the lineup less impressive, but the Rockies do have a solid core of young hitters. That said, the rotation isn’t very good and there is only so much the talented Corpas/Street duo can do. The Rockies are going to have a tough time competing with the more talented teams in the NL West.

Prediction:

The Rockies will struggle to stay out of the basement in the NL West, but will manage to finish fourth with a 75-87 record.

2009 St. Louis Cardinals Preview

2008 Record: 86 -76
Key Additions: Khalil Greene
Key Subtractions: Jason Isringhausen, Cesar Izturis, Braden Looper, Felipe Lopez, Aaron Miles

A Look at the Line Up:
Last October, when all the dust had settled, the St. Louis Cardinals finished with a record of 86 – 76, chiefly due to the strength of their surprise offence.

The Cards got surprising production from Right Fielder Ryan Ludwick and newly acquired Third Basemen Troy Glaus who played a shocking 151 games at the hot corner, his second highest total since 2002.

The Cardinals managed to rack up the fourth most runs in the National League behind an attack lead by the heart of the order.

Albert Pujols has established himself as a MVP candidate year in and year out. He got some help last year when pitchers had to worry about the combined 91 home runs belted out by Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankeiland Troy Glaus. Throw in Pujols and his 37 dingers and those four men accounted for 73% of the Redbirds home runs last season.

Catcher:
Behind the plate, we have one of the many talented Molina brothers. Yadier is only going to be 26 in 2009, but finally looked like it was coming together for him as an everyday major leaguer in 2008.

He posted career highs in most offensive categories including hits, average, OBP, runs scored, RBI’s and Slugging. Although his strikeout and walk numbers remained similar to years past, he did see a career high in at bats and subsequently his largest career hit total as well.

On the defensive side of the ball his range factor rated 19th out of the 20 catchers that started more than 100 games in 2008. That being said, his range factor was holding fairly steady at 6.49 compared to his career mark of 6.86.
He also posted a career worst in caught stealing percentage. He allowed 34 stolen bases on 52 attempts. That being said, his 34.6% was good enough tie his brother Bengie for fifth among everyday catchers.

Also, 52 was the second lowest number of attempts against and everyday catcher showing that players are still leery of an arm that threw out almost half (47.8%) of would be base stealer over his career.
All this, and he is only 26.

First Base:
What do you even say?
Albert Pujols is having his numbers measured against the all time greats; and why not? He has just collected another MVP award, and amongst active players he is in the top three in average, OBP, Slugging Percentage, and OPS.
After 8 years in the big leagues, he’s 98th all time in home runs, ninth in homeruns per at bat, 23rd in batting average, 13thin OBP, 4th in slugging and 5th in career OPS.

Oh yeah, and in 2006 he threw in a gold glove just to prove he could pick it. I’d write more, but you know score on Albert, Prince. More like King!

Second Base:
Jared Schumaker…Sorry Skip I just had to.
Schumaker showed great promise for the Cardinals last season making starts at all three outfield positions. But with the release of Adam Kennedy, it looks like the Cardinals have Schumaker penciled in to be one half of their everyday double play combination.

The Cardinals have every intention of this being a full time transition for the accomplished outfielder who became the table setter for the Cardinals in 2008. When Adam Kennedy was released, this idea seemed crazy, but as of March 26th the St. Louis Dispatch reports general manager John Mozeliakhas confirmed that the job belongs to Schumaker.
Defensively, what does that mean? We’ll soon find out.

Offensively, Schumaker gives the Cardinals something dynamic at the second sack. He’s a little light on power, but in the lead off spot if he can repeat his line from 2008 (.302/.359/.406), or even his career numbers that include limited at bats in 2006 and 2007, he should prove the same kind of spark as a year ago when the Cardinals produced 779 runs, good for 4thin the NL, and 10th in the Majors.

Shortstop:
The Cardinals biggest move of the off-season was getting former first round pick Khalil Greene from the San Diego Padres. Greene will be asked to replace the defensive stability left behind by Cesar Izturis.
Greene is an interesting case of how a player’s overall numbers seem to disguise what kind of player he really is. In the last three years, Greene’s home vs. away splits are staggering.

Keep in mind both of these data sets come from a similar number of at bats, 696 at home vs. 719 on the road.
Overall numbers 2006 – 2008 .240/.291/.421
Home numbers   2006 – 2008: .214/.275/.378
Road numbers     2006 – 2008: .265/.307/.462
His road performance also outdid his home numbers in hits, doubles, homeruns, and runs batted in. He also struck out 29 times less.

Greene could be a much more effective player for the Cardinals in 2009 than many would anticipate. Although I do wonder how that double play combination is going to come together with Greene, who posted a 4.19 RF in 2008, and a converted outfield that has never fielded the position before.

Third Base:
2008 was the first season in the last couple the Cardinals saw some stability at third.
Troy Glaus had an outstanding year, playing in 151 games, posting 27 HR, and 99 RBI’s. Along with Pujols, Ankeil and Ludwick, he gave the Cardinals substantial pop in their line-up. He also managed to raise his batting average and OBP 15 and 13 points respectively over his career average.

This all looked very promising, until this spring when Glaus ceased all baseball activities and was placed on the 15 day disabled list. Although, even with his injury, Glaus may be capable of the same type of production as last season.
The Cardinals are going to take this opportunity to audition David Freese. He looks to be the heir apparent to the third place job.

It is never sure how a players numbers are going to translate out of Triple A, but last year looking at his Minor League Equivalency Calculation (http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/mlecalc.html) that take into account league and park factors, Freese projects into a fairly nice major leaguer. In a full season we’d be look at 464 at bats, 20 home runs and a line of .268/.310/.457 in his first year in ‘The Show’, based on his Triple A production.
Glaus is expected back in late April. With Freese, the Cardinals may not miss a beat.

Left Field:
Only 6 days until opening day, and this position still seems to be a coin flip.
Colby Rasmus? He could be the starter.

Chris Duncan sounds like he has the inside track on the job though. Both have been hitting the ball well, and we may see a platoon situation between the former first basemen, and the center fielder of the future.

As of right now, my money is on Rasmus to be the everyday out fielder by the end of the season. Duncan has major league experience, but he has proven to be streaky at best. He had an April where he batted .288 with a .839 OPS in April.
That even includes a 10 day stretch at the end of the month that was part of a 63 game stretch where he batted .231 with his OPS at .645.
Rasmus only projects at .216/.292/.328, which may be a little deceiving, as he was injured in 2008. Rasmus is only 23 this year, and I think you’ll see him steal a certain number at bats over the year and work his way into the everyday line up.

Center Field:
Rick Ankeil, the former breakout Cardinals pitcher looks to have completed his conversion to big league outfielder.
Although at 29, it looks like the centerfield might have a little more pop than he has already displayed at 27 dingers in his first full season in the major league outfielders.

Ankeil has locked up the job and there is no discussion as to who will be the everyday centerfielder for the Red Birds this year. Depending on how much promise Rasmus works out, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ankeil go to right and Ludwick go to left by the end of 2009. That’s my bold prediction for the year.

Right Field:
Ryan Ludwickbroke out huge last year and blasted 37 Home runs. Although the Slugging percentage dropped slightly in the second half of the season, he raised both his batting average and OBP significantly.

Pre All-Star Break: .289/.365/.5597
Post All-Star Break: .313/.388/.583

Other than June and September he batted over .300 every month, and in September he hit .291.
Ludwick was also fourth in range factor, and tied for fourth in assists among right fielder among right fielders that played two thirds of their team’s games at the position.

Starting Pitchers:
This will probably be the surprise rotation of the summer, Wainright and Carpenter if healthy are a great one two punch, and Kyle Lohse has been pegged as many people’s sleeper pick for the year.

Adam Wainrightonly made 20 starts in 2008 with an index finger problem that kept him out for two months. That being said he improved in every statistical category over his coming out party in 2007.

Look for Wainright to be a legitimate CY Young candidate in 2009.

Chris Carpenter a pitcher that went from a pile of unfilled potential in Toronto, to CY Young award winner and World Series champion in St. Louis. Health has always been Carpenters issue. He’s only made 4 starts in the last two seasons. He won 51 games from 2004-2006.

He doesn’t look like he’ll ever reach that plateau again, but at the same time, in those three years he never had an ERA of over 3.46 since going to the national league.

Kyle Lohse looks to be another product of Dave Duncan. One of a few pitching coaches with the ability to make a pitcher better. He was almost a full run better on his ERA at home last year pitched about up to his maximum potential in 2008.
I’m not sure he’s up to winning 15 games again, but with Duncan staying on top of thing, 15 might be in the cards, 13 seems very plausible as does the ability to eat up close to 200 innings in the process.

Joel Pinero is another Duncan product. The Cardinals are hoping he can be more productive than his 5.15 ERA from a year ago.
Wellenmeyer has spent most of his career in the pen, so there is no telling if his 191.2 innings will be a cause for a trip or two to the pen in 2009. If not he does have the stuff to repeat his 13-9 effort from a year ago.

Bullpen:
The Cards bullpen is much like its rotation: a ton of upside. Can they be any worse than the Pen that blew 31 leads in 2008? I would say probably not.

Outlook:
The line-up will sizzle all summer without question. Expect them to be in the top 5 in the National League in runs scored again.

With a “healthy” Carpenter and Wainright I think the starting pitching steps up and surprises in 2009. If the bullpen blows half the games it blew last year, that’s another 15 wins.

That would equal 101 wins! I don’t see that happening exactly, but I could certainly see a Cardinals team that improves a lot in 2009.

I see the Cardinals at 10 wins better with a stable pen, 95-67. Firmly believe that they lose the division by a sliver to the Cubs.

2009 New York Yankees Preview

Key Additions: Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett
Key Subtractions: Mike Mussina, Jason Giambi

A look at the lineup:
CA – One of the keys to the Yankees’ fortunes this year is the health of Jorge Posada.  The veteran catcher must be in the lineup if they are to seriously contend.  The good news is that, as Spring Training progressed, Posada’s right shoulder seemed pretty healthy.  Veteran Jose Molina (of the catching Molinas) will serve as Posada’s backup.

1B – The Free Agent prize of the off season, Mark Teixeira will be a fixture in the middle of the lineup while providing Gold Glove caliber defense.  Nick Swisher, off season acquisition from the White Sox, will be the backup.

2B – Yankee fans are hoping that Robinson Cano’s 2007 first half performance (.151 BA) was an aberration. There is reason to believe that it was just that and, if so, the Yankee lineup will be a very dangerous one.   Cody Ransom was expected to be the backup 2B but will see lots of action at the hot corner until Alex Rodriguez returns.

SS – Derek Jeter is a Yankee icon but an aging one.  His offensive game is still effective but, defensively, his range is a shadow of what it once was.  Still, there is no other option at SS so the Yankees will live with Jeter making the routine plays while continuing to hit .300.  Jeter’s eventual replacement may be, temporarily at least, sharing a locker room with the captain as 23 year old Ramiro Pena seems to have the inside track on the utility infielder position until Rodriguez returns to action.

3B – With all of the controversy that swirled around Alex Rodriguez during this offseason and all the anger aimed at him by frustrated Yankee fans over the past few years, the team’s immediate future rests on his shoulders.  Take ARod out of the batting order and suddenly the pinstripers aren’t quite so intimidating offensively.   The feeling here is that the Yankees can survive with Cody Ransom at 3B for the month of April.  If, however, Rodriguez’ recovery from hip surgery takes longer than expected or results in a drop in his production, New York will be home for the post season.

LF – Johnny Damon will be the starting left fielder which is a wise move since he is such a defensive liability anywhere else in the outfield.  Manage Joe Girardi has experimented with swapping Damon and Jeter in the 1-2 spots in the batting order and it seems that the change may be permanent.  At this stage in their respective careers, Damon is a more effective  #2 hitter than Jeter.

CF – Brett Gardner is slated to be the opening day CF but rumors persist that the Yankees may yet make a deal for veteran Milwaukee CF, Mike Cameron.  Melky Cabrera and Swisher will likely serve as reserve outfielders.

RF – Xavier Nady gives the Yankees a solid offensive and defensive presence in RF.  A platoon player for much of his MLB career, Nady will get the opportunity to prove that he is a full time starting outfielder.

DH – Hideki Matsui is coming off of knee surgery and will be restricted to DH duties until some time in June.  His bat is critical to the success of the team this season, especially while ARod is out of the lineup.

A look at the pitching:

Starters – Free Agent signees CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett should turn this starting staff into one of the league’s very best.  Sabathia give New York something they have lacked over the past few seasons; a legitimate Ace at the front of the rotation.  Chien-Ming Wang now slides comfortably in the #2 slot while AJ Burnett, Andy Petite and Joba Chamberlain round out a staff that can matchup with any other in MLB.

Youngsters Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, both of whom were ineffective in the starting rotation last April will start the season in AAA.  Hughes, who had a sold Spring Training for the Yankees, will be back with the big club at some time this season.  Kennedy also remains very much in the team’s future plans.

Relievers – Future Hall of Famer, Mariano Rivera anchors a bullpen that should be an effective unit for Girardi.   Brian Bruney, Damaso Marte, Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez and young left hander Phil Coke will man the bullpen in front of Rivera.  Reportedly, Jonathan Albaladejo, who saw brief action with the Yankees last season is in line for the final bullpen job.

Outlook:

There are so many question marks as the Yankees enter the season that it is difficult to predict how this season will turn out.  That said, there is so much talent here, especially with the additions of Teixeira, Sabathia and Burnett, logic dictates the team will be in the hunt for the AL Eastern crown for the entire season.

Prediction:

The Yankees will be engaged in a three way, steel cage death match with the Red Sox and Rays.  The prediction here is that they will outlast the Rays to finish 90-72 and capture second place in the East and the Wildcard slot

2009 Houston Astros Preview

In an effort to get every preview done by the season opener, you may notice that some of the team previews will be of the shorter variety. With some of the “extra information” not included, this should make for an easier read. Enjoy!

Key Additions: Mike Hampton, Jason Michaels, Ivan Rodriguez

Key Subtractions: Randy Wolf, Ty Wigginton, Mark Loretta, Brad Ausmus

A look at the lineup:

CA – Ivan Rodriguez was signed late in the off-season and will be the team’s starting catcher. Humberto Quintero will see plenty of action as the backup, while J.R. Towles will start the season in the minors.

1B – Lance Berkman is back as the everyday first baseman and three-hitter after an outstanding 2008 campaign. Darin Erstad will be the backup.

2B – Kazuo Matsui will lead off and man second base. Edwin Maysonet and Jason Smith add depth.

SS – Miguel Tejada will be the starter at shortstop and will hit fifth. Maysonet and Smith are the backups.

3B – Geoff Blum will open the season as the starting third baseman and will likely bat sixth. Chris Johnson will be the primary backup and Smith adds depth.

LF – Carlos Lee will be back as the starter in left field and will hit cleanup. Newcomer Jason Michaels will back him up.

CF – Michael Bourn is back as the everyday centerfielder and will hit eighth. Reggie Abercrombie and Erstad are the reserves.

RF – Hunter Pence will hit second and is the starter in right field. Erstad and Abercrombie add depth.

A look at the pitching:

Starters – Roy Oswalt is the undisputed ace of the rotation. The rest of the rotation is less than impressive, but Wandy Rodriguez is respectable. Brian Moehler, Mike Hampton <enter injury joke here>, and Russ Ortiz round out the rotation. Jose Capellan, Felipe Paulino, Alberto Arias, Brandon Backe, and Clay Hensley are also under contract and will compete for starts.

Relievers – Jose Valverde is back as the closer. LaTroy Hawkins, Geoff Geary, Doug Brocail, Wesley Wright, Tim Byrdak, Chris Sampson, and Jeff Fulchino will battle it out for innings in relief.

Outlook:

There is not much to like if you’re an Astros’ fan. The team did not improve during the off-season and the pitching staff is a mess. There are a few good hitters in town, but that won’t be enough to keep this team competitive.

Prediction:

The Astros will give the Pirates a run for their money for the basement position in the NL Central. Expect a record near 69-93.

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