As with most prisms of reflection in the fantasy baseball evaluation pool, there is always an element of luck involved.  The skill is recognizing the decline before it’s too late and exchanging the name for some value.  That, of course, is another story.

Here are the picks for those who did not meet expectations in 2011 relative to draft position and ranking.  I only surveyed the top 10 players at infield positions, the top 25 outfielders, and the top 30 starting pitchers because these would presumably be the core of most teams when they were drafted.

(Players presented as name-position-team-age-Yahoo! pre-season rank at the position )

Category A: Disappointments That Were Difficult to Predict or Avoid

Hanley Ramirez-SS-Florida-27-1:The consensus #2 pick in the majority of drafts was probably the biggest disappointment in 2011.  Unfortunately, there was almost nothing to suggest a decline at all.  He had a career low OPS by 140 points.  There had to have something been going on before his injury.

Shin Soo-Choo-OF-Cleveland-28-8: A two-time reigning 20-20 OF with an OBP hovering around .400 over the last three seasons, his  lack of production when healthy was puzzling.  His basic profile didn’t change drastically, though his infield fly rate increased by 4% from 2010.  Injuries also depressed his overall numbers.

Andre Ethier-OF-Los Angeles-29-14: Ethier was a never a great player, but he was a reliably consistent player over the past three seasons before 2011 (OPS range .857-.889 with decent run production).  His power disappeared and so did his value.

Category B: Disappointments Because Expectations and Draft Slot Wildly Exceeded Possible Real Output

Carl Crawford-OF-Boston-29-3:Everything that could go wrong for Crawford did.  I did not expect this terrible performance, but 1st round value for someone at the edge of his prime whose principal value is only tied to SB is too much.  Also, changing teams sometimes can be a real detriment to even talented players (see Werth, Jayson for another example from this year.

Francisco Liriano-SP-Minnesota-27-19: There was no doubt that 2010 was a stellar year for Liriano (9.4 K/9), but in the new era we are in (remember how 2010 was “The Year of the Pitcher”), he was drafted above more reliable and better starters such as Dan Haren, Matt Cain, and Chris Carpenter.  His 1.26 WHIP in 2010 even with the great other stats was not elite.  His collapse though was because he lost his command.

David Wright-3B-New York-28-2: The David Wright of 2008 is probably not returning. Third base was a position of scarcity in 2011, but Wright was drafted on average 13th overall.  His career low OPS didn’t help matters, but at least stole bases at a good clip.  He now strikes out greater than 20% of the time and hits for less power than his 2006-2008 peak.  He may be young, but his batting profile has changed, changing his value.

Category C: Disappointments Because There Were Signs There Was Little Probability of Matching His Draft Value

Joe Mauer-C-Minnesota-28-1:As a catcher, Mauer’s margin for error is very small because he usually would only start 120-130 games per season even when fully healthy.  At that draft position, he would have to approach his 2009 season (his only season over 20 HR) in power output.  This is not what he has shown as a player the rest of his career.  Unfortunately, the injuries hampered his season’s stats even further.

Ubaldo Jimenez-SP-Colorado-27-9: Jimenez was probably the best pitcher in baseball the first half of 2010.  In the 2nd half, his effectiveness decreased greatly in terms of run prevention and base runners allowed.  Drafting him as the 9th ranked pitcher (48th overall) was a risk because of his home ballpark, 2nd half regression, and the rumors of an underlying injury.

There are plenty others who did meet expectations this year, and here is the name that should be in all of them (Adam Dunn) just so it can be said I didn;t forget him.  Looking forward to 2012, there’s only so much you can predict, but try to not draft players they were of the past, but how they project for the season.  One always need some luck to stumble on at least a few disappointments.
By Dan Rauer (http://dansotherworld.blogspot.com)

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The Brewers definitely showed some deficiencies in the NLCS. They proved that they can’t field and that they are not as deep in the starting rotation as they need to be. But they proved some other things too. Clearly they can hit. Top to bottom in the Milwaukee order showed that they can hit and hit for power. And they did it largely without Prince Fielder who was all in all pretty quiet in the series. They also showed that they have a solid bullpen. Francisco Rodriguez will probably not be back next season but John Axford is one hell of a closer and will be next year too. The Brewers definitely have some holes but they have a good, deep core of players to build around and the additions of a few key guys could make a big difference.

The Brewers owner Mark Attanasio said that his team will be major players in the Prince FIelder sweepstakes. Now, I don’t think they’ll get him but their willingness to throw probably about $160 million at a guy is a big indication that they have money to spend in free agency. I think there are three key guys that Milwaukee should target, (other than Fielder and assuming they don’t get him) to greatly improve their roster. None of these three guys are starting pitchers, and they definitely need one of those but take a look:

• Jose Reyes, shortstop- Reyes is a free agent and fresh off beating Brewer Ryan Braun for the batting title. He’s an excellent shortstop, a definite upgrade over Yuniesky Betancourt, and a true leadoff hitter. He would allow Milwaukee to move Corey Hart to the middle of the order where he belongs to help replace Fieder’s production and would get on and get over for Braun and Hart and Casey Mcgehee to drive in. It would be a bit of a coup for Reyes to end up in Milwaukee as he’s going to receive huge and high-profile offers from the Mets and Giants  but if the Brewers overpay a little, they could get him.
• Aramis Ramirez, third base- Another free agent, the Brewers are very familiar with Ramirez from his days with the Cubs and Pirates. Aramis is a superb defensive third basemen (some thing the Brewers clearly need after watching the NLCS) and a very productive offensive player too. Out of the three guys on this list, he comes the closest to replacing Fielder’s level of offensive production. Ramirez offers homers and a good average but is a questionable clubhouse guy. If you can put him in a position where he doesn’t have to lead (at all), I think he could be a hugely valuable guy.
• David Wright, third basemen- This one is definitely different than the other two. Wright is not a free agent, he is a member of the New York Mets. But the Mets aren’t going anywhere and they know it. Before they traded Carlos Beltran this summer, there were rumors that they were fielding offers for Wright. I think for the right package of money and prospects (especially money), the Brewers could get him. I’ve always said that I thought Wright would thrive in a situation where he is not looked to to provide all the offense and in a lineup with Hart, McGehee and Braun, that would not be the case. What ever you think about this, it’s definitely an interesting option

Be sure to visit Off The Bench for more great baseball articles.

However, it’s Josh Hamilton, left fielder for the Texas Rangers, who is probably the most talented athlete in the Metroplex. He is such a natural freak, which we haven’t seen since the early days of Ken Griffey Jr. Long before he was sleeping in dugouts.

It is true that Hamilton has already reached his thirtieth birthday, but he spent numerous years of his prime battling addiction. This is a negative from the aspect that the problem could resurface in any instant, but it is a positive from the standpoint that his body hasn’t experienced the same wear and tear from playing every year during the last dozen years that an everyday player would have.

Hamilton doesn’t have the best statistics offensively of any player this season, but one must look at his body of work over recent history to appreciate the legacy that he has begun. He has scored over three hundred runs, garnered nearly six hundred hits, and has ninety-seven home runs in only around five hundred games played. The three hundred and fifty four runs batted in is just one more measurement of his profound greatness over the last four years.

Scouts that patrol high school and college fields are constantly in search of five tool players. This encompasses hitting for average, and power. It also includes defensive range and prowess, the arm strength, and speed on the base paths. The only deficiency that could even be discussed with Hamilton is his arm strength. This is why manager Ron Washington plays him in left field most of the time.

No one with all of his faculties would ever argue that Dallas is a baseball town. The NFL may be on the backburner for a while and sports fans could have more time to focus their attention elsewhere this fall. The Rangers would be a better bet than turning attention to college football in minor and irrelevant conferences that may be on the dial on Sundays. One thing that the Rangers could do to increase business at the gate is to not have day games during the summer months.

Heat is obviously oppressive in the region, and there is no reason that fans should pay to soak themselves in their own sweat and get burned by the sun to watch the boys of summer. The only exception to this generality would be during the Fox game of the week on Saturdays. There is not much maneuverability in this scenario for teams that are currently at the top of their divisions. Josh Hamilton is surrounded by talented offensive players in the line-up like Michael Young, Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, and Nelson Cruz. This only increases the chances that Hamilton will continue to see quality pitches and put up prodigious numbers.

Photo via Keith Allison of Flickr.

Interesting. How long before this goes the way of other ideas like the “January Effect” when trading stocks- when enough people start adapting a practice to the point that it loses it’s relevance? Danks is having enough issues as it is. I heard another theory about Danks, and it involves his personal life (allegedly). It goes back to last year, and it involves….well, I don’t know if this idea really has any weight at all. Coincidence and correlation does not imply causation.

And since I’m talking like a NERD. Here’s more dorky math and stat geek stuff for you poindexters. Again courtesy of Fangraphs, and again explaining this phenomena in more substantive, quantitative and measurable terms.

Although results are the end game, the process behind the Danks Theory is to take away the opposing pitcher’s best weapon – or in this case Danks’ changeup (his cutter is quickly closing in, but the changeup is still slighly ahead). According to the database at texasleaguers.com, the White Sox lefty has thrown his off-speed pitch 20.4% of the time since 2008. Breaking it down by splits, he has thrown it 24% to right-handers with a 16.6% whiff rate. Lefties have a similar swing and miss percentage (16%), but he throws it just 11% of the time against them

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• Giants-Marlins Rivalry Ignited: Logan Morrison vs. Brian Sabean Verbal Battle
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• Chicago Cubs hit Rock Bottom, and then the Bottom Drops Out
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Walks and hits per innings pitched is an essential tool for the fan to utilize when analyzing his favorite pitchers’ performances. Color commentators consistently recycle lines from others before them, and one familiar cliche relates to base runners who’ve reached base by walks always score.

One of the reasons that this is more noticeable than a hit is because the gentlemen that try to garner walks are fleet of foot. Some of the current Whip leaders are no surprise. Yovani Gallardo of the Milwaukee Brewers and Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers are talented at keeping this number down. It not only means that they have tremendous velocity, but also command of their repertoire.

The command aspect also allows them to get some of the borderline calls from umpires. If a pitcher is all over the place, he is less likely to receive the benefit of the doubt. Pitchers successful in this area are also able to fully concentrate on the hitters because there are less base runners. The wind-up provides the necessary repetition to achieve more success.

Another statistic of note offensively that is under -utilized is OPS. This takes into account on base percentage combined with slugging percentage. Like whip, this statistic marries a couple of other ones to provide a fuller picture of someone’s production or lack of it.

To give you an idea of the credibility of this tool, the top five all time leaders in this category are: Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Barry Bonds, and Albert Pujols. Surprisingly, a slight majority of the career top ten list is right handed. Achieving above a one in this area puts these men among the all-time greats.

The total bases divided by the number of at bats calculates the slugging percentage. This ensures that singles aren’t overvalued. Slugging percentage can also be a statistic to assess when a player’s home runs aren’t as high as one might think. Playing in a stadium like Petco Park or Comerica Park could take away the long ball, but it might provide the opportunity for more triples and stolen bases for astute runners.

Like all measurements though, OPS is not perfect. It doesn’t account for the ground ball to second base that may score a runner or advance one from second to third. There will always be a place for situational hitting in baseball, whether it is rewarded officially or not.

Possibly Related Posts:

• Sox John Danks Inspires Pitching Theory
• Breaking: Buster Posey Releases Statement on Collision, Giants on Sabean
• Giants-Marlins Rivalry Ignited: Logan Morrison vs. Brian Sabean Verbal Battle
• Indians Justin Masterson in a Pitching Slump?
• Chicago Cubs hit Rock Bottom, and then the Bottom Drops Out

Lost in the box score will be the fact that Erik Bedard had a gutsy outing throwing a season-high 111 pitches in the seven frames he worked today holding the Rays to three runs. Bedard got roughed-up in the early going but settled down from the fourth inning on allowing only one single in the fourth and facing the minimum the rest of the way in this seesaw battle.

There are a lot of heroes in this game but one of them is not Jamie Wright even though he manged to get the win despite surrendering the lead in the top of the eighth right after the Mariners had scored a couple of runs in the bottom half of the seventh thanks to a triple by none other than Greg Halman. Halman made a big splash today with three hits and once again proving Jack Z. and Erik Wedge right in their personnel decisions. Halman was brought up to replace Michael Saunders a few days ago when all  anyone could talk about was Mike Carp. But Halman has to share the credit for this win with several other  Mariners including Ichiro who pushed a couple of runs across the plate in the third then scored himself on the perfect  execution of a squeeze play by Brendan Ryan in the eighth.

But the big inning for our bashers was the bottom of the eighth when the Mariners down 6-5 got a walk by Smoak and a clutch single by Jack Cust to put runners on first and second with one out for Adam Kennedy. Kennedy once again responded in the clutch with a huge single to score Wilson from second who was running for Smoak. This is the sort of “Never Say Die” attitude that Eric Wedge and his crew have been showing us for over a month now. And perhaps it was only fitting that the other veteran Jack Z. brought to Seattle in the off season, Miguel Olivo would come to the plate next. Olivo responded by hitting his second home run in as many days to put the Mariners up 9-6 and drive the nail into the hearts of the visiting Rays who are battling themselves in the tough AL East.

The sort of baseball we are playing lately has been a joy to watch. And just as the nay-sayers were all harping on the fact that the Mariners pitching was great but they had no offense…Our guys responded in a big way in this homestand slamming eleven bombs out of the yard. About the only thing the whiners will be able to point their fingers at is the slumping Chone Figgins. At this point who cares! We are on a roll baby! And by the way yes Texas won today, but both the Angels and A’s lost so we are creating a little breathing room for our swash-buckling sailors with this series win. So it’s on to Chicago then Detroit as we take our Mojo on the road…Go M’s! http://jeffsmariners.com

Photo via Keith Allison of Flickr.

The wheelhouse of this feud began with the Florida Marlins Scott Cousins putting a big, but legal hit on San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey. It knocked the star catcher out for the season, and Cousins later released a statement apologizing for the situation. This led Giants GM Brian Sabean to say some harsh things about the situation. This led the Marlins Logan Morrison to criticize Sabean’s outspokeness.

And then Giants fans began sending death threats to Scott Cousins.

For the statements of Morrison, Sabean, and Cousins go here

And now, there’s more:

According to Carl Steward of the San Jose Mercury News, Buster Posey just a couple hours ago released the following three-paragraph statement:

“I appreciate the continued support of Giants fans and others as I begin the process of working my way back. But in no way do I condone threats of any kind against Scott Cousins or his family.

“As I said last week, I’m not out to vilify Scott. I appreciate that he made the effort to reach out to me on the night of the play, but I was in no physical condition to talk to anyone. I have not been back with the team since that night, so I haven’t even been aware of any other messages he’s left for me. We all need to move on, so it isn’t necessary to have a conversation with him at this point.

“My only focus right now is looking forward, getting healthy and returning to catching for the Giants.”

So, insane meatball baseball fans out there, heed his advice! Leave Scott alone. If he can move on, obviously so can you. Even though it appears the Giants actually aren’t moving on at all. But there are doing what’s right in the interests of PR and media relations.

The organization released the following statement on the harsh words of Brian Sabean. (San Francisco Chronicle)

“This is a very emotional time for the Giants organization and our fans. We lost for the season one of our best players to a serious injury and we are doing everything we can to support Buster Posey through this very difficult time. We appreciate Scott Cousins’ outreach to Buster Posey and to the Giants organization.

“Brian Sabean’s comments yesterday were said out of frustration and out of true concern for Buster and were not meant to vilify Scott Cousins. Brian has been in contact with Florida Marlins General Manager Larry Beinfest to clarify his comments and to assure him that there is no ill-will toward the player. He has also reached out to Scott Cousins directly.

The issue of catcher safety is a complicated one. There are a number of differing opinions around the circumstances of last week’s collision and about what baseball should do to prevent serious injuries in the future. This issue goes far beyond last week’s incident as there have been a number of recent collision-involved injuries.

We have been in contact with Joe Torre, Major League Baseball’s executive vice president for baseball operations, and have asked for a thorough examination of this issue for the health and safety of all players.

We intend to move beyond conversations about last week’s incident and focus our attention on Buster’s full recovery and on defending our World Series title.”

Paul M. Banks is CEO of The Sports Bank.net. He’s also a regular contributor to Chicago Now, Walter Football.com, Yardbarker, and Fox Sports You can follow him on Twitter and Facebook

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This brings us to the New York Mets, and the baseball trade rumors swirling around ace shortstop Jose Reyes. It looks like the Mets aren’t going to contend again this year and management has to decide if they should keep Reyes, who’s on the last year of his contract, trade him, or let him walk at the end of the season.

Forget about letting him walk. Reyes either stays a Met or gets traded before the deadline. Looking at the club’s payroll, it appears they can afford to keep Reyes this season and should be able to come up with the cash for a new contract next year as they only have $66.8 million on the books for 2012. This is largely due to the fact the contracts of Reyes, Oliver Perez, Carlos Beltran, and Luis Castillo will have expired.  Francisco Rodriguez is owed another $17.5 million, but only if he manages to finish 55 games this season.

The big decision for the Mets is what to do with Reyes. On one hand, trading him gives the team a chance to build for the future with some solid prospects. But on the other hand, you’ve already got one of the best baseball players in the game, so why not add to the puzzle and build around him?

If they do decide to trade him, the Mets have to get the timing down pat and deal Reyes when his value’s at the absolute peak. It’s unlikely they’ll deal him this early in the season and will wait until at least June unless they get an offer that blows their socks off.

If the Mets want to clean house and start from scratch, Reyes will be a goner. But if they view him as a franchise player and a foundation to build on, they won’t ship him out for odds and ends. Everybody has their opinion, but it’s going to come down to what the Mets feel is the best for the team in the long run.

A lot of fans feel the club has already seen the best of Reyes and he’s on the downslide, but looking at his statistics, that’s a hard argument to make. He’ll be 28-year-old in June and possibly entering his prime years as a baseball player.

Reyes averaged 16 triples and 65 stolen bases between 2005 and 08 before being injured for most of 2009. He rebounded last year with 10 triples and 30 stolen bases, showing he hasn’t lost his speed. The three-time All-Star also got off to a great start this year and led the NL in hits with 4f after the first 34 games. He also had a .331 batting average to go along with a .507 slugging percentage and .379 on-base percentage.

He also has a sunny disposition and doesn’t seemed too concerned about things he has no control of, such as trades and free agency. The Mets need to take a long, hard look at the situation to make sure they don’t blow it.

They’re not the most talented bunch and could use some starting pitching, especially with Chris Young and Jenrry Mejia dealing with injuries. They could also stockpile their farm system by dealing Reyes as he’s the team’s most tradable asset, along with third baseman David Wright. In addition, Reyes will be looking for a long-term deal next season and could break the bank, considering that Carl Crawford got a $142 million deal in free agency.

Keeping Reyes means the fans won’t look at the Mets as a team that’s bailing on them and will also help them sell some tickets. They won’t save any significant money by dealing him before the July 31^st trade deadline either. He’s still the team’s top player as he can hit, run, and play defense while keeping himself in great shape. He could easily be an elite layer in the league for another five years.

Trading Wright looks to be a better option and his power means the Mets should get something decent in return. Reyes’ speed is more productive than Wright’s power at Citi Field, making the shortstop more valuable at this point.

The Mets don’t have a lot of time to make up their minds as the trade deadline will be here before they know it and Reyes is a hot commodity right now. If they are not in financial desperation, it’d be a good idea to keep him and try to add a good supporting cast through some shrewd managerial moves.

Keith Allison (Flickr)

From Bill James to fangraphs.com to Tom Tango to baseball-reference.com to the next name or organization out there in the world, there are almost unlimited places to go to learn all about the new wave of baseball statistics. What does all this stuff mean? Without doing a full analysis, I’ll give an explanation.

The most obvious issue with the recognizable statistics is the fact that they don’t take enough available variables into account. You’d probably recognize that 40 homeruns at Coors Field in Colorado isn’t quite as impressive as 40 homeruns at Petco Park in San Diego, but in terms of statistics, how much less impressive is it? These are questions advanced statistics attempt to answer.

Batting average is probably the most common statistic used to rate a baseball player. It shouldn’t be. All that batting average tells you is what percentage of the time a player turns an at-bat into a hit. What about walks? What about extra base hits? Which pitchers did he face? What stadium was he in? Statistics like OPS and wOBA will take things like these into account and come up with more accurate numbers.

Now you should have an idea of what I’m talking about, so let’s try a test. The topic will be Earned Run Average (ERA). Pitcher A sports a 10-5 record and a 2.50 ERA at spacious Petco Park with the league’s 3^rd best defense behind him. Pitcher B sports a 6-7 record and a 3.00 ERA at Coors Field with the league’s worst defense at his back. Which is better? If you answered Player A simply because of his lower ERA and better win-loss record, you’d be making a mistake. Pitcher A might not be the wrong answer, but you selected him for all the wrong reasons. Questions like “What is each player’s BABIP and LOB%?” need to be asked. Another is “how many runs would’ve been scored against the two pitchers had they been playing at a neutral park with league average defenses behind them?” A statistic like FIP can help answer that question.

There are tons of statistics out there, several of which overlap each other. Your best bet is to sit down, study them, and determine which ones, in your opinion, best rank players from top to bottom. This is by no means a perfect science and statisticians and baseball fans alike are developing better methods every day.

Next time you have a free couple of minutes, take the time to learn a few of these statistics. The conversion to the days where you hear them on ESPN and in the newspapers is coming faster than you think.

The mission of The Moyer Foundation is to offer encouragement, comfort and support to children enduring a time of profound emotional, physical or financial distress and provide opportunities for enhancing overall wellness, stability and quality of life.

Since its inception, The Moyer Foundation has raised over $20 million to help support more than 225  different programs that help children in distress in a variety of ways.

To learn more about The Moyer Foundation or make a donation to support one of their programs, please visit them online at The Moyer Foundation.

Head on over to the Hallofverygood.com for a short Q&A with Jamie Moyer.