What is Bryce Harper Up To These Days?

What exactly is the 16 year old baseball phenom Bryce Harper currently up to at the moment?

ESPN – Harper will be 17 years and almost eight months old on draft day, will take his GED, and leave high school after two years and enroll at the College of Southern Nevada this fall. This should make the Las Vegas High School catcher eligible for the 2010 Rule 4 draft, when he’d be the overwhelming favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick.

‘Duk @ Yahoo Sports – His father announced that Bryce will forgo his final two years of high school and use a GED to enroll in a community college this August. Though it more or less makes a mockery of our education system, the Harpers’ plan would make Bryce eligible for the 2010 draft, where he could conceivably be the Nationals’ No. 1 pick and eventually join forces with Stephen Strasburg to save Washington baseball from itself.

Max Prep – Still just 16 years of age, Harper made headlines earlier this summer when he announced that he would forgo his final two years of high school to enroll in Southern Nevada Community College with the intent of applying for the 2010 draft. Harper would be approximately 17 years and eight months when the draft will be held. How long it would take him to reach the Major Leagues is anyone’s guess, but Harper reportedly has the skills necessary to rise quickly through the minor leagues.

Romero Comes Through Big Time

The Jays Come Out Of The Gate Flying!

With a country that is now focusing at a playoff run that includes three of the six Canadian squads trying to end Canada’s 16 years playoff drought, the Blue Jays are soaring taking their first two series of the 2009 season.

Unfortunately nobody seems to be noticing. The Jays fans were their normal loud and loyal selves on opening night. Unfortunately a few bad apples decided that with the bases loaded and a seven run lead in the eighth on opening night to participate on a level of stupidity that caused the MLB to threaten forfeit. That was the Ugly. Even more predictable was the dramatic drop off in attendance over the next couple of days.

The Good:

The kids started off scorching hot and were looking to prove that the 12 spot they dropped on the Tigers on opening night was more indicative of the potential offense that they are have. With 46 runs score in the first week and twice knocking out double digits Cito and Gene Tenace seem to have the boys in blue swinging hot sticks right out of the gate.

Adam Lind – Has been on a tare to open his second full big league campaign. He’s managed 12 hits, five for extra bases in just seven games. He’s also shown a knack for the five spot driving in team high 12 runs.

Aaron Hill: Returning for post-concussion syndrome that kept him out of a large chunk of 2008 Hill looks to be back on track to be the player he was becoming, by batting .300 with three double and two long balls. Not to mention he has already knocked in eight RBI from the two spot. Not a proto-type two-spot hitter Hill is capable of creating a lot of excitement with his ability to generate runs.

Vernon Wells: Looking like the guy they gave all that money to, Wells has started the year batting .321 and has also knocked around three doubles and a home run in his first seven games.

The Bad:

Alex Rios: Although Rios seems to have learned the value of a walk with five in his first seven games, he hasn’t exactly been on fire in the three spot. The Jays have scored a league high 42 runs and Rios has driven in six. Combine that with Vernon Wells and you’ve gotten nine RBI out of the 3 and 4 spot. Luckily Hill and Lind has book ended them with 20 out of the two and five spot.

The Pitching: Everyone is enamored with the offense, but people shouldn’t turn a blind eye to the false promise that is this Blue Jays pitching staff. The Jays rank 17^thin the majors in ERA. In the American League alone the Jays rate in the top three in average, runs, slg, OBP and OPS on offense. On the reverse, of the 14 teams in the AL they are ninth in WHIP, ERA and tenth in OPS in pitching.

The Ugly:

I’ve discussed my disappointment in the opening day crowd already with their behavior. Lets talk about the fact that on the night the Blue Jays were attempting to take their third straight from the Tigers to start the season (Their best start since 1996) and drew 12,145 or 24% of capacity. Cito Gaston showed measurable improvement in this teams offense last season and opening day did nothing to dispel that. But 24% capacity by the third game of the season is nothing short of embarrassing.

So what do we know?:

After one week the Jays are mashing and their pitching is right on track with what we might have thought. The glut of runs has allowed them to get into the pen with a lead. Camp, Carlson, Downs and Fraser have held down the late innings. The Jays have gotten one quality start out of rookie Rickey Romero and Roy Halladay is 2-0, but Litsch, Purcey and Richmond have been the weak link accounting for the team’s two losses. In four starts and 21 innings the trio has surrendered 14 earned runs.

Are the Jays for real? Well as long as their two, four and five hitter keep up this pace they should be fine, even with this below average pitching. Unfortunately for them I just don’t seem Adam Lind being the first guy in 68 years to crack .400, and knocking out approx. 70 bombs.

Are the Jays better than most thought, it sure looks that way, but their team ERA and WHIP are cause to be concerned that what we have seen so far can not maintained.

Clay’s Choice: Darin Gorski

Also the founder of Kutztown University Vital Sports, I recently did a study of one of the Golden Bears’ pitchers, Darin Gorski. The southpaw is expected to be an early round draft pick in June’s draft and so I added him to my Clay’s Choice list.

With June’s major league baseball entry draft only two months away, now is as good a time as any to check up on the major league potential of Kutztown University’s own Darin Gorski. The left-handed starting pitcher was ranked as the fourth best prospect in Division-II by Baseball America and has been outstanding so far this season. Gorski is a junior and could return for his senior season, but the odds are pretty good that he will get drafted in the early rounds of the entry draft.

I did an extremely in-depth analysis of each of Gorski’s pitching appearances since his arrival at Kutztown prior to the 2007 season. He has made 33 appearances in his career (as of April 10), which includes 25 starts. His numbers, which I’ll get to in more depth shortly, have been noticeably consistent over the last three seasons, but it’s not hard to see the progressive improvements from start to start. Since only 10 of his 166 1/3 career innings pitched were of the relief variety, I’m going to scrap them and focus only on his contributions as a starter.

Gorski made just six starts in his rookie season back in 2007. In 30 1/3 innings of work as a starter, he struck out in impressive 27 opposing hitters, while walking 13. His ERA was 2.67, WHIP was 1.12, and opponents hit just .191 against him. An ideal pitching prospect would strike a lot of people out, induce ground balls, and avoid walks and fly balls. Gorski proved he had potential to meet those requirements in his freshman campaign, but his 3.9 BB/9 and 30:26 GO/FO ratio needed improvement.

The southpaw went on to make 12 starts in 2008 and, although he showed improvement in several categories, his numbers through 2 seasons all but mirrored his stats after his freshman campaign. In that sophomore season, he struck out 83, walked 27, and allowed 63 hits in 81 1/3 innings of work. His ERA was 2.43, his WHIP was 1.11, and opponents hit .210 against him. His K/9 improved to 9.2 and his BB/9 was slightly better at 3.0. Although he struck out hitters at a higher rate, Gorski allowed his GO/FO ratio to even out at 101:101. Because homeruns are hit at a much lower rate in division-II (as opposed to the major leagues), Gorski can thrive despite the 1.00 GO/FO ratio. However, that is a figure that will need improvement as he works his way through the minor leagues.

Gorski’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP) increased from .244 his rookie season to .265 his sophomore year. For you advanced stats beginners, this means that balls hit into the field of play by opposing hitters were falling in for hits at a higher rate. On the other hand, his left on base percentage (LOB%) increased quite a bit from 67% to 74%. BABIP is widely considered to be all but uncontrollable by the pitcher and the 74% LOB% is probably closer to where his career average will end up. All that being said, it’s safe to say that Gorski pitched better his sophomore season, but was a bit less lucky.

Heading into his junior season, there was plenty reason to believe Gorski was the real deal and would be even better. So far, he has not disappointed. In seven starts, he has tossed 44 innings, allowing 27 hits, while striking out 51 and walking 13. Although there is still quite a ways to go this season, his 1.23 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, .172 opponent batting average, 1.77 fielding independent ERA (FIP), 10.4 K/9, and 2.7 BB/9 are all career bests. His GO/FO ratio has remained right on his career average at 34:35.

Taking a look at Gorski’s numbers in 25 career starts, it is clear to see what is attracting major league baseball scouts. In 155 2/3 innings of work, he has allowed just 111 hits, while striking out 161 and walking 53. Despite the 135:136 FO/GO ratio, he has allowed only 6 career homers, including none thus far in 2009. His career ERA is 2.14, WHIP is 1.05, FIP is 2.87, opponent’s batting average is .196, K/9 is a whopping 9.3, and BB/9 is 3.1.

That’s about all you need to know about Darin Gorski. It looks like he will be an early round pick in the entry draft, which is set for June 9-10. Meanwhile, Gorski and the Kutztown University Golden Bears, ranked in the top 15 in Division-II, will look to win the PSAC Championship, before heading off to compete at the Regional and National level.

Keep up with Darin’s progress and that of the Golden Bears at Kutztown University Vital Sports or by logging on to the official KU Athletics website.

Photo Credit: Tony Vazquez

Early season hero: Buy or sell?

As an avid fantasy baseball player, the first few days of the major league baseball season have been as much about getting an idea of what I can expect from my beloved Braves as it is about learning who the breakout fantasy players will be in 2009.

As always, there were a bunch of players who came flying out of nowhere and are now on everyone’s watch list. Should you jump the gun and snag one of these small sample size heroes or settle for a more reliable option? This column should prove you with some guidance.

First up is Marlins third baseman Emilio Bonifacio. Ranked first in most formats, Bonifacio has stormed out of the games this season. He is playing third base for Florida, but probably has second base eligibility in your league. So far he has put up a .600 average, four runs, four RBIs, a homer, and three steals. He is leading off in front of the likes of Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, and Jorge Cantu.

Obviously, Bonifacio won’t hit .600, but will he be good enough to keep on your roster all season? The answer is “possibly”. I say possibly, because, well, the man has no resume of success in the major leagues. However, he has had some success at the minor league level, which leads me to believe he could succeed at the top of the Marlins order.

While he was with Arizona, Bonifacio broke out at the age of 21 back in 2006 while playing advanced-A ball. In 608 plate appearances that season, he stole 61 bases, scored 117 runs, and hit .321. It’s clear that he can get on base (.375 that season) and contribute a ton of steals, but that will always come at the price of absolutely no power. In that 2006 season, he hit just 7 homers and drove in only 50.

Bonifacio was not as impressive in double-A in 2007, hitting .285 with a huge dip in steals (20) and OPS (from .824 to .685). In 2008, he was traded to the Nationals and was impressive in triple-a, again hitting over the .300 mark (.397 OBP), while stealing 21 bases and scoring a ton of runs.

Last season in the major leagues, Bonifacio had 186 plate appearances, hitting .243 with 7 steals in 11 tries. He struck out 46 times and walked 14 times for an on base percentage of only .296.

So what does all that mean to you? It means that if you need help in the speed department, Bonifacio is a guy who you may want to target. The odds are pretty good that he has already been picked up in your league, so I don’t recommend overpaying for him in a trade. If he is still available and you need help at second base, he is worth a shot. I don’t recommend plugging him in at third base unless you’re desperate. Third base is often a position where you need to get some power numbers. Bonifacio is not going to do that for you.
If he sticks at the top of the Marlins order, there is a good chance he will score a ton of runs and steal more than 40 bases. A batting average approaching .290 is also possible. Just know that you’ll be lucky to get seven homers and more than 50 RBIs.

2009 San Diego Padres Preview

2008 Record: 63-99
Key Additions: David Eckstein, Walter Silva

Key Subtractions: Khalil Greene, Trevor Hoffman

A Look at the Line Up:

C – Nick Hundley is only 25 years old and had trouble adjusting to major league pitching during last season’s call up. He hit .237 in 198 at bats but has shown some pop in the minor, cranking 20 jacks in AA in 2007. He will be a fun young catcher to watch this season as he could breakout. He will get all the chances in the world to prove himself on this team.

1B – Adrian Gonzalez is THE best player the Padres have and one of the premiere first basemen in the league. He’s coming off of a great World Baseball Classic where he led the Mexico team with his ability to hit for power, average, and play great defense. He will do the same for the Padres this year. Adrian will be the one bright star to gaze upon in what looks to be a rough season for this team.

2B – David Eckstein was acquired this off season and will bring the veteran presence this team needs as well as consistent at bats and fielding. Edgar Gonzalez, Adrian’s older brother will back him up and could challenge Eckstein for at bats if allowed the chance this year. Eckstein will likely bat second behind Giles and in front of Adrian Gonzalez, which means that he will see a lot of good pitches this year!

SS – Luis Rodriguez looks to anchor the SS position with Greene gone. Rodriguez will form a good double play tandem with Eckstein as the Padres look to be very sound defensively in the middle infield.  He hit .287 filling in for Greene last season but doesn’t steal much or hit for power so he will be a contact hitter and nothing else.

3B — Kevin Kouzmanoff will once again field the hot corner for the Padres. Kouz could break out this year as well. He improved last season and has huge potential. Unfortunately he is on a bad team. But I can’t think of a better situation than to bat cleanup behind Adrian Gonzalez which is why I consider him for a potential breakout season.

RF – Brian Giles is getting up there in age and I am not sure if he should still be leading off for the Padres, but he will. Giles hits for average still, around .300 and will knock 10-15 home runs. He will also play a steady RF but I would not expect him to steal many bags this year, again, he is aging.

CF – Jody Gerut was a rookie sensation with Cleveland in 2003 and then faded into obscutity after being traded twice in 2005. He did not play any baseball, not even in the minors, in 2006 and 2007. Well the Padres were in need last season and gave him a shot. He delivered superbly hitting .296 with 14 homers in 328 games. He’s only 31 and that’s not too old and will likely bat 5th behind Kouz.

LF – Chase Headley is the man to watch this season. The 24 year old, with a .301 average in the minors, played well in a call up last season, batting .269 with 9 home runs in 91 games. He is definitely the biggest sleeper and breakout candidate as this kid has a lot of talent. He projects to be a .300/20 HR buy and could achieve that this year.
A look at the pitching:

SP – Look no further than staff ace Jake Peavy. He is virtually unhittable at home boasting a 1.74 ERA but only going 5-5 because of a poor supporting cast. Peavy has been discussed as trade bait as the Padres look to cut payroll following a nasty divorce hearing involving the owner and the pending sale of the club. They figure finish last or finish last minus the $11 million Peavy will earn this year. Scouts are saying he looks as sharp as ever this spring after a terrible World Baseball Classic.

Chris Young looks to rebound from an injury plaged 2008 which saw him take a Pujols line drive off the face fracturing the nose and skull and some forearm tightness. He is topping out in the mid 80s this spring and that will not cut it for him, he needs to be  in the low 90s. He has had a poor spring with some tendinitis to boot so I do not expect Young to do well this year.

The rest of the staff is full of has beens and never will bes. Shawn Hill came over after being released by another club and may contend for the 5th starter position and 32 year old rookie Walter Silva looks like a great pickup from the Mexican league.

Outlook:
Not good. The team is predicted to finish last by everyone, and I mean everyone. The organization is in transition of ownership and they are trying to move their all world pitcher Jake Peavy because of his salary. It’s a poor situation for players like Peavy and Gonzalez but there is a lot of opportunity for many of the organization’s young prospects to breakout and get major league experience. But alas, they will finish last. Hey, at least they have a great ball park!

Prediction:
Headley will breakout, Peavy will get traded for some great prospects, Gerut will have a great season and Young will falter. 59-103 will give them the worst record in the NL this season.

2009 Los Angeles Dodgers Preview

2008 Record: 84-78 1st Place
Key Additions: Orlando Hudson, Randy Wolf, Mark Loretta, Guillermo Mota, Will Ohman
Key Subtractions: Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Takashi Saito, Jeff Kent, Nomar Garciaparra, Joe Beimel, Andruw Jones, Scott Proctor

A Look at the Line Up:
C – Russel Martin is going to play better this year, and he played just great last year but I think that people were expecting a little more. He will be taking more time off and realizes that he needs that to stay healthy. But he has always been one of those guys that plays like his hair is on fire and I’ll bet if the Dodgers are in a close race he will lobby hard to play every day.

1B – James Loney is a solid and consistent player that hardly ever misses a game. People are still waiting for the power to come to his bat and may have to wait a bit longer as this spring has seen a light hitting Loney so far. He is still very young and has time to develop his power still. He will get a lot of RBIs in the new high powered Dodgers offense so I project him to have over 100 RBIs this season and at least 20 HRs.

2B – Orlando Hudson is a cool cat, a great clubhouse guy and outstanding person. So he will definitely help keep this team together but I am not sure about his play or his health. The wrist injury from last season will apparently always be with him, he will never recover 100% from it.

He had to learn how to field balls differently because his wrist is so jacked up that it doesn’t bend the way it used to. So far though his fielding has been stellar and with Furcal at SS we figure to see plenty of web gems from the best double play tandem in all of baseball this season. He will be surrounded by great hitters in Furcal at leadoff and Manny in the 3 hole so he will see many good pitches to hit this year. A definitely upgrade at 2B this year.

SS – Rafael Furcal seems all healed from the back injury that ruined his 2008 season. He was on a torrid pace before the injury so I expect a career year from him batting in this Dodgers lineup, if he can stay healthy. He has been diligently performing his back and core strengthening exercises that are supposed to help his back stay healthy. Furcal is ready for a World Series run in 09 for the Dodgers.

3B – Casey Blake, poor Casey Blake. He is still getting trashed by fans online who want more out of the 3B position. But he is as steady and veteran as they come. He will bat 8th and hits about 20 HRs while batting about .280. To me those are great numbers for the 8 spot! I like Blake and feel that he will contribute greatly to this team.

RF – Andre Ethier was the Dodgers best hitter last year, excluding Manny, and figures to build off of that again this year. I still think that he should hit in the number 2 spot in front of Manny which is where he had great success last season but it appears that Hudson will fill that spot in the order. That means that Ethier could hit in the 4-6 spot. Most people feel that Kemp has more potential because of his size and athleticism but I feel that Ethier brings the talent and attitude required to succeed at the major league level.

CF – Matt Kemp is still projected to be a stud. He was good last season and finished just behind Ethier in stats, but with a  rather high strikeout rate. He plans on cutting that back this year with better discipline, a year’s experience under the belt, and new contact lenses that have him seeing the ball better at the plate and picking up the ball off the bat in center. Kemp could be a 30-30 guy this year and projects to bat somewhere in the 5-7 spots.

LF – Manny Ramirez, he’s baaaaaack. Nothing more to say here except that pitchers had better watch out! The dodgers just need to make sure that he is protected in the lineup because I see many more walks in his future this season.

A look at the pitching:

SP – The biggest perceived weakness for the Dodgers is pitching. But the good news is that their farm system is stocked full of great arms that could step in this season and surprise. Jason Schmidt could provide a pleasant surprise this season but will not be game ready until about mid May. James McDonald is the real thing, and will start the season as the fifth starter. Randy Wolf looks set for a solid season, he will not jump out at you but will provide solid innings of work. And Hiroki Kuroda and Chad Billingsley really need to step up this season and lead the staff. Clayton Kershaw will achieve ace status this season and he is really fun to watch.

RP – Jonathon Broxton looks to step in and take over closing duties with the departure of Saito. The rest of the relief core is up in the air as far as how they will perform this season. But the late acquisition of Will Ohman to fill the lefty specialist role will help anchor things. Again the minors are stocked with both veteran and rookie arms that can step in and help.

Outlook:

The Dodgers should produce one of the premier offenses in baseball this year but they need to stay healthy, especially at pitching. I still think that the pitching staff will end up being a lot better than everyone thinks and that would be dangerous for other clubs. The Dodgers still have money to spend and may spend it on another starting pitcher or to fill another unforeseen need during the season. Oh, and as soon as somebody losses a center fielder Juan Pierre will most likely be traded.

Prediction:

92-70 will earn the Dodgers the division this year. I just don’t think that the Diamondbacks or the Giants or the Rockies have enough talent to keep up with them all season.

Penny Locks Down Red Sox Rotation Slot

While the Red Sox management has yet to make an official announcement, it seems clear that Brad Penny has nailed down the fifth starter spot and will make his first start in a Red Sox uniform on April 12th in Anaheim against the Los Angeles Angels.

Penny, who was signed as a free agent during the offseason, made his third Spring Training start on April 2nd against the Twins, throwing 79 pitches (49 for strikes) and allowed three runs on five hits.

According to Adam Kilgore’s Extra Bases blog on Boston.com, (http://www.boston.com/), felt better on the mound than he did at any point last season.

Penny told Kilgore that he never reached 90 mph last season but reached 96 mph on one pitch versus the Twins.

The Red Sox enter the season with as deep a starting rotation as there is in major league baseball. Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield will join Penny in the rotation with John Smoltz expected to return from rehab in early June.

As if that isn’t enough, top pitching prospect Clay Buchholz had a tremendous Spring but was demoted to AAA Pawtucket to begin the season.

2009 Philadelphia Phillies Preview

Key Additions: LF Raul Ibanez, SP Chan Ho Park, RP Gary Majewski, INF Marcus Giles, OF John Mayberry, INF Miguel Cairo, RP Jack Taschner

Key Subtractions: LF Pat Burrell, OF So Taguchi, RP Tom Gordon, SP Adam Eaton, RP Les Walrond

A look at the lineup:

Catcher: Carlos Ruiz struggled with the bat from day one in 2008, but if his past is any indicator, the guy can still hit.  He may never figure it out on this level, but Ruiz hit over .300 in triple-A just a few years ago, so the potential is there.  The question is: can he take a step forward, because last year he went in the wrong direction.  Chris Coste is the backup, and he can hit for some power, but he’ll be on bench duty all year.

First Base: Ryan Howard is a beast and everyone knows it.  The only problem is, can he cut out the long swoons and be on more of an even keel for an entire year? If he were to do that, his numbers would be astronomical.  However, Howard has not proven to be that sort of guy, so we’ll have to go with what we know.  And that’s power, strikeouts, and a few giant months tossed in.

Second Base: We didn’t realize it at the time, but Chase Utley’s hip injury was serious.  His power stroke struggled by mid-season and after demolishing pitching in the first half (25 homers) he finished with a limp.  Utley has deemed himself prepared for opening day in ’09, and that bodes well.  Expect a slow start as he kicks the cobwebs, but as the best second baseman in baseball, expect greatness for a whole year.

Shortstop: Jimmy Rollins was an MVP.  Then he wasn’t.  The 2008 season was much different for him after an ankle injury killed him in the beginning of the year.  However, Rollins is healthy and showed he’s ready after a spectacular World Baseball Classic.  Look for steals and hopefully for the power we once saw.  Plus, he’s awesome in the field, which is just as vital to the success of the Philies.

Third Base: It was a long year for Pedro Feliz, as a bad back derailed him early, and he never really got going. After four straight seasons of 20-plus homers in San Francisco, Feliz dropped a dud, smacking just 14 on the year.  His back is fixed, but is his bat?  Greg Dobbs and Eric Bruntlett did a fine job in his absence, but I would rather see Feliz for a whole year.

Left Field: Goodbye Pat Burrell, hello Raul Ibanez.  The former Mariner outfielder is a model of consistency, something Pat the Bat clearly was not.  Will it translate to the NL?  Ibanez is aging, but gracefully.  And he should have plenty of opportunities to knock in runs with this offense.

Center Field: Shane Victorino was marvelous in centerfield, playing stellar D and posting career highs in every offensive category.  He too was included in the WBC and now finds himself among the elite outfielders in entire game.  My they grow up quickly.

Right Field: Another blossoming outfielder is Jayson Werth.  He gave the Phillies fans a new cult hero to love after slamming 24 homers in just over 400 at-bats.  The potential is there for something special, but he needs to cut down on the K’s.

A look at the pitching:

Starters: Cole Hamels is the man.  Hollywood, as they call him in the clubhouse, won several postseason awards and made himself a household name.  The one problem with Hamels is his elbow, which has bothered him throughout the spring, but he should be ready for the first week.  The Phillies are hoping he can stay healthy again for a full year after pitching over 250 innings in 2008, by far the most he’s ever been on the mound.  Hamels did not get much run support last season, so if he can this year, it could mean 18 wins.

With the middle three spots of the rotation, you basically know exactly what you’ll get. Brett Myers will once again be the opening day starter (only by default) and will once again start the season as the biggest mystery.  He has all the potential in the world, but have we seen the best from him already?  Every year we wonder when Myers will win 16 or more games, and it has yet to happen.  Will this be the year? If the past is any factor, he will once again toy with the fans and give us around 13 wins.

Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton are also back in the middle of the solid rotation.  Moyer continues to defy the odds, but how much more is left in the tank?  He has had a so-so spring, so the talks of aging will be there all year, good or bad.  Blanton was terrific last season, and was a huge part of why the Phillies now have a second World Series title.  Joe the Pitcher will not wow you with his stuff, but he has a steady hand.  Expect about 13 wins and an ERA in the 4’s, but you can’t get much better as a number three or four.

Chan Ho Park is the wild card here.  He is the new fifth starter, and if his spring performance is an indicator of things to come, the Phils could have a steal.  Park beat out J.A. Happ for the final position and while his past is not pretty, it’s all about looking ahead.  His stuff is on point with a blazing fastball and beautiful off-speed pitches thrown in.  The Phillies just hope he can last a whole year, after last seasons debacle with Kyle Kendrick and Adam Eaton.  If not, Happ waits in the wings.

Bullpen: One of the best bullpens in baseball in 2008, the team will be hard pressed to provide a repeat performance this season. Brad Lidge did not blow a save and finished 4th in the Cy Young voting.  Ryan Madson was a new man in the set-up role he shared with lefty J.C. Romero.  Romero will be missing for 50 games after being suspended for using performance-enhancing drugs.

Scott Eyre, Clay Condrey, and Chad Durbin are all back and although they each had very good 2008 seasons, it’s going to be hard to get much more out of them.  As of this writing, we still await word as to who will join this crew.  J.A. Happ, Gary Majewski, and Jack Taschner are vying for two spots.  Happ would be used for long-relief, so there is a very good chance he stays.  Majewski and Taschner are a toss up at this point, with Majewski having been in camp longer.  Look for him to have the slight edge.

Prediction: It’s hard to go against a team that won it all the previous season.  So I won’t do that now.  They have basically the same team once again, so why can’t they win the NL East?  The Phillies and Mets will lock horns for 162 more games, but as of now the Phillies look to have the superior talent.  Look for 90 wins and another postseason invitation.

2009 Chicago White Sox Preview

Key Additions:  Wilson Betemit (IF), Bartolo Colon (SP), Brent Lillibridge (IF) and Jayson Nix (2B)

Key Subtractions:  Orlando Cabrera (SS), Joe Crede (3B), Boone Logan (RP), Nick Swisher (OF), Juan Uribe (IF) and Javier Vazquez (SP)

A look at the lineup:  The lineup is full of a mixture of seasoned veterans (Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome) and youngsters (Alexei Ramirez, Chris Getz and Dewayne Wise), but it is the bat of Carlos Quentin that they’ll be paying the most attention to.  You’ve likely heard plenty about Quentin and his MVP potential…but is he for real?

Catcher:  AJ Pierzinski.  AJ has been nothing if not serviceable for the Sox.  His four years on the Southside have seen him hit ..274 with an average of 15 home runs and 58 RBI.  Behind the plate, he seemingly handles the staff well…but he showed decline by only throwing out 18% of would-be-stealers.  At 32 years old, the Sox are hoping he can hang on, as they have no one in the pipeline.

First Base:  Paul Konerko.  The Sox longest-tenured player (he’s made a franchise record eight straight Opening Day starts) appears to be on the decline.  He sent 22 balls over the fence, but after averaging 37 bombs a season from 2004-2007…a departure from those numbers is troublesome.  Chicago’s infield is entering the season much younger with Fields, Getz and Ramirez, so it is safe to say they’ll start looking for a youth movement over at first soon.

Second Base:  Chris Getz.  Getz came out of Spring Training as the leader at second, but that isn’t to say that Lillibridge and Nix won’t see some action.  Expect Getz to hover around .270-.280, but don’t expect a ton of power…his career high in his four years in the minors was only 11.

Shortstop:  Alexei Ramirez.  Last year’s breakout second baseman for the Sox is this year’s breakout shortstop.  What people don’t remember is that last year’s Rookie of the Year runner up (Ramirez lost out to Tampa Bay’s Evan Longoria) played out of position at second.  The Cuban set a major league record for grand slams hit by a rookie with four and this season, he looks to continue to show some swagger at the plate.  Of his 21 bombs in 2008…14 were after the All-Star break!

Third Base:  Josh Fields.  Finally!  The Josh Fields Experiment begins…again.  Two seasons ago, Fields filled in for Joe Crede and surprised the White Sox brass with 23 home runs in 100 games.  Last season, a healthy Crede kept Fields in the Minors for a majority of the season.  Since Crede was let go, conventional wisdom says that Fields is a sure bet to keep the job at third.  However, there is a reason why the Sox traded for Wilson Betemit.

Leftfield:  Carlos Quentin.  Quentin was the odds on favorite to take home the AL MVP Award last season before he broke his wrist with a month to go in the season.  And despite the injury, Quentin was only one home run (36) off the league best 37 of Miguel Cabrera.  “Q-uperman” also led the AL in at bats per home run with 13.3.  The big question is whether or not the Jose Canseco look-a-like Quentin for real or not.  Only time will tell.

Centerfield:  Dewayne Wise.  At 31, the speedy Wise finally gets his chance to be an every day player…but for how long?  GM Kenny Williams let US Cellular fave Aaron Rowand go a few years back in order to give Brian Anderson a shot and that failed.  Will Wise be a “wise” (sorry, couldn’t resist) or another reason why Williams should’ve rewarded Rowand with a contract?

Rightfield:  Jermaine Dye.  Dye and Konerko are both two long balls from 300 career home runs, but the real quiz isn’t who will get to the milestone first…it is who will be with the Sox the longest?  Dye is the biggest power threat on the Southside, and that’s saying something given the other bats in that lineup.  Last season, he hovered around .300 all season (he finished at .292) and ended up 34 bombs and 96 RBI.

Designated Hitter:  Jim Thome.  “Peoria Jim” enters the season with 541 home runs. He’ll likely jump over Harmon Killebrew’s total (573) this season and, along with Alex Rodriguez, is inching closer and closer to the 600 mark.  Also of note, Thome is 12 RBI away from hitting 1500 and aside from Harold Baines (1628) and Andre Dawson (1591), everyone who has 1500 or more RBI and is Hall eligible…has had their ticket punched.

A look at the pitching:

Starters:  White Sox starters combined for an AL leading 93 quality starts last season…they won 67.  So what’s the problem?  Mark Buehrle (15-12, 3.79) has started six openers for the Sox and is one away from Billy Pierce’s club record.  That being said, he is the only starter left from the 2005 team that won it all.

Joining Buehrle are John Danks and Gavin Floyd.  The dynamic duo combined for 29 wins and should adequately fill the void that Javier Vazquez left behind.  But that’s where it ends…and that is the main problem that Chicago has.

Brought in to fill the gaping hole in the starting rotation was Bartolo Colon who appears to be a million miles and 120 pounds from his 2005 Cy Young Award winning form.  A once promising hurler (eight straight seasons with 14 or more wins to start his career), Colon is not going to be enough to save the last half of the Sox starting rotation.

And unfortunately, no one else is either.

Bullpen:  Last season, closer Bobby Jenks did something that no other Sox reliever (not even Bobby Thigpen) was able to accomplish…three straight seasons with 30 or more saves.  Jenks, who was once clocked at 103 mph, has lost plenty on his fastball and, unfortunately, doesn’t have a whole lot more to trick hitters.  In 2006, Jenks baffled hitters and ended up striking out 80 in less than 70 innings.  Last season, he fanned only 38 in just over 60 innings.  If the Sox can find out how to stop his decline, Jenks (along with Octavio Dotel and Scott Linebrink) will be formidable.  If not…it’s going to be a long season for the bullpen.

Outlook:  Last season’s American League Central Division champs became the first team ever to win three consecutive elimination games against three different teams.  This season, it is very possible that they’ll be trailing the three teams they beat (Cleveland, Detroit and Minnesota) if they don’t start winning right out of the gate.  While it isn’t the best division in baseball, the AL Central will be one of the most competitive.

Plenty of people are predicting the Chi-Sox to finish near the bottom of the division.  Some are even saying that the Kansas City Royals will have their number…but I won’t go THAT far.  This group of perennial overachievers led the Majors with 235 dingers and hit 143 of them at US Cellular on their way to a .659 home winning percentage. They will put up those numbers again soon…just not in 2009.

Prediction: Ozzie Guillen’s mixture of veterans and unproven youngsters leaves little margin for error.  Unfortunately, while the top half of the starting pitching will be good, the bats (oft-injured and a year older) won’t keep up their end of the bargin.  Expect 75-80 wins this year from the Southsiders.

Check out Jesus Melendez from http://hallofverygood.blogspot.com!

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