Sabermetrics 101: Runs Created

Runs Created or RC is a tool created by Bill James in an attempt to calculate how many runs an individual player creates for his team. If you follow James, then you probably know of RC already, but if you don’t and you are tired of the same old stats then you may want to pay close attention to this post. Here is how important RC is in Bill James own words:

Statistically speaking, RC is the player’s ability to get on base (his on base factor ) multiplied by his chance of advancing (his advancement factor) divided by his overall possible opportunities (his opportunity factor). To get these figures, James took a players hits plus walks (H + BB) total and multiplied that by his total bases (TB), then divides that by the total of his at bats (AB + BB) in it’s most basic form. To see the variations at which James takes into consideration, just follow this link or the previous one. The basic version of this stat gives the user an accurate measurement with a 5% margin of error and with the more complex variations that number decreases (see note # 3).

Runs created, if used correctly, can assist those looking for an edge (that is if your competitors aren’t already using it also) in player evaluation. This tool helps you to see the true value of a player’s offensive prowess in the most important stat of scoring runs which is what wins games. Right? After all, you could have the best pitching and defense on the field but if you don’t score any runs you can’t win the game.

Don’t get me wrong, I do believe in defense and especially good quality pitching, but as far as offense goes RC is one of the most important stats on the market.

For some external links on RC, please follow the previous link provided by Baseball-Reference.

All links and Notes found in this post come from Wikipedia on Runs Created.

Note 1: James, Bill (1985). The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (1st ed.), pp. 273-4. Villard. ISBN 0-394-53713-0.

Note 3: James, Bill (2002). Win Shares, p. 90. STATS, Inc. Publishing. ISBN 1-931584-03-6.

Peter Schiller also writes monthly for Seamheads.com and almost daily at his personal baseball blog, Baseball Reflections.com. Please follow the links to read his work at these two other sites.

Sabermetrics 101: VORP

For those of you who did not read my first post here on RBI Magazine, here is the textbook description of VORP thanks to Baseball Prospectus.com.

VORP stands for Value Over Replacement Player, which is broken down as the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances.

However, Wikipedia defines value over replacement player (or VORP) in a slightly different way.

In baseball, value over replacement player (or VORP) is a statistic invented by Keith Woolner that demonstrates how much a hitter contributes offensively or how much a pitcher contributes to his team in comparison to a fictitious “replacement player,” who is an average fielder at his position and a below average hitter.[1] [2] A replacement player performs at “replacement level,” which is the level of performance an average team can expect when trying to replace a player at minimal cost, also known as “freely available talent.”

Although VORP sounds funny, it can be a very useful tool for the Sabermetrician or the fantasy baseball player/owner. It can help you to decide if a player is just on a hot streak or if he’s the real deal. Compare his VORP to others at his position and make wiser decisions in your league. What VORP does not take into consideration is a player’s defensive ability. This is one of the flaws I see in this statistic.

Here’s what Wikipedia says about the usefulness of VORP.

VORP’s usefulness is in the fact that it measures contribution at the margin (as in marginal utility). Other statistics compare players to the league average, which is good for cross-era analysis (example: 90 runs created in 1915 are much better than 90 RC in 1996, because runs were more scarce in 1915). However, league-average comparisons break down when considering a player’s total, composite contribution to a team. Baseball is a zero-sum game; in other words, one team can only win if another loses. A team wins by scoring more runs than its opponent. It follows, then, that a contribution of any runs helps a team toward a win, no matter how small the contribution. However, the Major Leagues are highly competitive, and talent distribution in baseball does not resemble normal distribution’s traditional “bell curve”; rather, the majority of players fall within the category of “below-average” or worse. Therefore, the so-called “average player” does not have a value of zero, like in Pete Palmer’s Total Player Rating, but instead is a valued commodity. One alternative is to rank players using “counting stats” — simply their gross totals — but this is unacceptable as well, since it is likely that the contribution a marginal player makes, even if it does help a team win one game, is not enough to justify his presence in the Majors. This is where the concept of the replacement level enters the picture.

As far as fantasy value goes, I think that VORP is a good tool for evaluating offensive talent given the above matrixes, but for MLB in general, I’d prefer to see a statistic developed that combines VORP with one’s deffensive aptitude. What do you think?

Next time out we will discuss the Sabermetric stat by the name of Runs Created which was mentioned above.

Peter Schiller also writes monthly for Seamheads.com and almost daily at his personal baseball blog, Baseball Reflections.com. Please follow the hyperlinks to read his work at these two other sites.

Sabermetrics 101: An Introduction

Let start off with the Wikipedia definition of the term, Sabermetrics. Sabermetrics is the analysis of baseball through objective evidence, especially baseball statistics. The term is derived from the acronym SABR, which stands for the Society for American Baseball Research. It was coined by Bill James, who was among its first proponents and has long been its most prominent and public advocate.
In the next few posts that I do here in RBI Magazine, we will explore some traditional sabermetric tools of the trade. This methodology was made famous by Bill James, but it really didn’t get public notoriety until Michael Lewis’ book Moneyball hit bookstores. In his book, Lewis follows the change in methodology in evaluating talent in the Oakland A’s organization that was spearheaded by GM Billy Beane.

Beane changed his methodology in an attempt to find a creative way to compete with the big market teams such as the NY Yankees, Boston Red Sox, NY Mets, LA Dodgers and Angels (to name a few).

And it worked! The small market team from Oakland, CA became annual participants in October baseball by either beating out the Angels for the division title or via the Wild Card slot. This has worked for them until, as usual, the rest of baseball caught up with them, including the big market teams like Boston.

What does this mean for the average fan? You no longer have to rely only on offensive statistical categories such as batting average (BA), runs scored (R), runs batted in (RBI), home runs (HR), but now you have on base percentage (OBP), on base plus slugging (OPS), runs created (RC), value over replacement players (VORP) and a host of others.

These tools can make or break your fantasy team if you have the time to delve into it deeply enough. They are also to stat geek’s tools of the trade and the love of baseball economists everywhere.

If you love stats and don’t yet know much about Sabermetrics, you’re going to love this series and if love is too strong of a word for you, then we’ll say that you’re really going to enjoy the next few posts in this series.

If you’re a novice with Sabermetrics, feel free to ask me to cover a specific statistic and I’ll be happy to give it a go or point you in the right direction if it’s beyond the scope of this series. See you next time…

Peter also writes once a month for Seamheads.com and on a regular basis on his own site, Baseball Reflections.com.

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http://www.baseballreflections.com