Los Angeles Angels Preview

Key Additions:
Bobby Abreu (OF), Brian Fuentes (CL)

Key Subtractions:
Mark Teixeira (1B), Garrett Anderson (OF), Francisco Rodriguez (CL), Jon Garland (SP)

A look at the lineup:
An Angels line up that is full of power with a little speed sprinkled in. The Angels will look for another big year from Chone Figgins in respect to setting the table for the likes of Vladdy, Hunter, Abreu and Napoli.

This squad should fit Scioscia well, as he likes to get out and run and be aggressive on the base paths. He should be able to use the speed of Figgins, Aybar, Kendrick, and get the most out of heads up base runners like Abreu and Rivera.

Catcher: Mike Napoli is now entering his fourth season with the big club. He’s shown a ton of promise. But never amassed more than 268 at bats in a season, even with those numbers limited by injury, in 252 career game and 714 career at bats, Napoli has crushed 46 home runs.

Of his 177 career hits, 81 have been for extra bases. Last year, Napoli batted .273 which was 25 points higher than his career average. He was fourth among Major League catcher in home runs, first in slugging percentage and fifth in on base percentage among catchers with more that 200 plate appearance in 2008.

Defensively, he is a low spot on an otherwise solid defensive Angel’s squad. Last year Napoli managed to post only 3 errors in 493 total chances, but he gave up 52 stolen bases on 63 attempts for a caught stealing percentage of 17.5 percent.

First Base: Here is one of the biggest question marks of the season.

The Angels aren’t going to make up for the production loss or the gold glove caliber defense that they got from Big Tex last year. The position is a complete mystery to most. It looks like in his fourth year with the Angels, Cuban Kendry Morales is going to have the job to lose coming out of spring training.

Morales has had a few cups of coffee with the big club, and his three previous seasons in Triple A with the Salt Lake Bee’s has show consistent offensive output. Although the power numbers leave something to be desired for a corner infielder, we should see a fairly effective transition to the majors.

In the field the former outfielder seems to be learning and developing everyday with the glove at first base.

Second Base: After three years in Angel red Howie Hendrick might have the fans seeing it, if he takes multiple trips to the DL again. A .306 hitter in his young career, Kendrick has all the tools to be a great table setter for the Halo’s this year.

Especially, in front of what is looking to be a powerful middle of the line up. Although not exceptional range, Kendrick does a solid job defensively, couple that with what projects to a mid to high teens number in stolen bases and many are expecting a break out season from Kendrick.

Shortstop: The other half of the Angels young, injury prone double play combination is Erick Aybar. Again more speed in the Angels line up and we know how Mike Scioscia loves to get out and run. Not as much offensive potential as Hendrick, but much the same story.

Still very young and his development has been stunted by injury. This is also the year that the Angels will take a good hard look in what they have in Brandon Wood. The prospect managed to crush 31 minor league dingers last year, and then added five more in the majors in 150 at bats. Still only 24 Wood will probably be able to steal some at bats if he can improve his plate discipline, he batted .200 with four walks in 150 at bats last season. He also managed 43 strikeouts and only 30 hits.

Third Base: After seven seasons in the majors, and playing more that 140 games in three of the last five, Chone Figgins worked his way from super-sub, to everyday third basemen.  He is again going to be expected to set the table for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

With his blazing speed he averages 50 stolen bases out of 66 attempts per 162 games over his sever years in the big leagues. He also averages 179 hits and 65 walks per 162 for a .356 OBP. That being said, even with all his speed and being in a prime run scoring position in the line up Figgins has only cracked 100 runs scored once in a his career.

That coupled with his decline in runs produced in each of the last four years since his career high of 113 in 2005, you may see Figgins moved out of the top spot in the line up at some point this year. But his glove should keep him solidly in an everyday roll. Last year among third basemen with 100 or more games played in he ranked ninth in range factor with a 2.65 and second in fielding percentage.

Left Field: Although the Angels weren’t overly active in free agency they went out and secured a replacement for the departed Garrett Anderson. In many respects, Abreu is a slight upgrade. Both men hit for almost the exact same average with Abreu at .296 to the .293 posted by Anderson.

Abreu leads Anderson by a moderate to slight margin in every offensive category including, runs, hits, doubles, triples, homeruns, RBI, OBP, Stolen bases, Stolen base percentage, SLG percentage, and total bases. In the field Abreu has played a more coveted defensive position in right field most of his career. But should make the transition to left without a problem, and give the Angels the kind of intimidating arm in the outfield that they lack when Vlad has a day off to DH.

Center Field: The Angels have their big free agent signing from 2007 patrolling Center. At 31 years old last year  did what Torii Hunter does last season. He won a Gold Glove, and struck out more than 100 times.

What the numbers don’t tell you is his Gold Glove was only accompanied by the 10thbest range factor among centerfielders with more than 100 games played and that his replacement in Minnesota led all center fielders in total chances, put outs, range factor and was fourth in assists at his position with nine.

Although, posting a sparkling 1.000 fielding percentage the numbers seem to show that at 32 years old Hunter is going to play out his huge deal on the down side of his career. At the plate Hunter produced his lowest Totals in Homeruns, RBI in a non injury shortened season. Although his average was up from previous years, as was his on-base percentage. But when looking at a guy hitting in a run producing spot the fall in his SLG percentage is disappointing.

Not quite the center fielder he once was, Hunter needs to have a better year and prove this isn’t a trend.

Right Field: After 13 years in the Major was is left to say about The Impaler? You know what you’re getting .310/30/110.

I realize the stat line is a little short as Vlad no longer has the legs or should I say knees to be a 40-40 man. But is as feared as any man at the plate. He’ll probably see about see about 100 to 110 games in the field and another 40-50 in the DH spot if the past two to three years is an accurate predictor.

That being said, he has been slowed in right by chronic knee pain in the last couple of years seeing his range factor fall below 2.0. Although the arm is still there, it is less of weapon as everybody in the major is aware of it and Guerrero simply can’t get to many balls anymore.

He maybe turned into more of a permanent DH if Abreu is slipped to right, or we may see either Juan Rivera, or Gary Matthews Jr. as a viable option in right if either one of them can prove to stay health this year.

Designated Hitter: The DH job looks to belong to Juan Rivera if he can stay on the field. That is a big IF considering Rivera has managed to play in 103 games in the last two years. Now at the age of 30 the Angels are hoping that he can recapture a little of his 2006 magic when he posted 27 doubles, 23 homeruns, batted .310 with an OBP of .362 and slugged .525.

That being said I don’t think we should expect Rivera to top 120 starts at DH with the Angels looking to rest Vladimir Guerrero’s knees, while keeping his bat in the line up. Another option  the Angels may look at is to mix Juan into the outfield rotation as he has played all three outfield spots in his career.

A look at the pitching:

Starters: The pitching again looks to be the strength of this Angels team, with a rotation that features Lackey, Santana (not Johan, the other one that’s pretty good) and Joe Saunders. We will see this group attempt to propel the Angels back to the top of the division.

Some of the performances from a year ago are repeatable; some I wouldn’t have as much faith in. To their credit the starting five combined for 73 wins (first in the MLB last year). Although they are sure to miss Jon Garland’s 14 wins and almost 200 innings pitched this year.

At age 30, John Lackey should be back and as productive as ever. He did miss the first six weeks of 2008 with triceps issues. But after he came back he produced yet another solid year. He went 12-5 with an ERA of 3.75, average seven plus strikeouts per nine innings and a 3.25 to one K to walk ratio.

The concern with Lackey might be revealed by his season split at the all-star game. Even while missing the first month plus of the year he went 6-2 with a sub 3 ERA (2.56) and then turned around and managed a second half record of 6-3 where he ERA ballooned to 4.99, and he gave up 17 of his 26 long balls. Lackey only made 24 starts last year, compared to 2008 when he gave up 18 homeruns in 33 starts, and 2004 he served up 14 in 33 starts.

Lackey is starting to look more and more like a quality pitcher prone to the monster inning. That being said, I believe there is no reason to believe that Lackey won’t stay health enough to make his customary 33 starts, and with a winning percentage of more than .670 in three of the last four year(over .700 twice) there is no reason to believe that Lackey won’t continue to win between 15-20 games like clock work

In 2008, Ervin Santana finally produced the kind of numbers that Angels had been waiting for since he produced a 16 win campaign in 2006. In 2008 Santana managed to bounce back from a dreadful 7-14 2007. Not just right the ship but show that he has finally got command of the electric stuff that could make him a front line starter in the majors.

With a pair of plus plus pitches in his fastball and slider Santana managed a walk to K ratio of 4.55 to one. He also managed almost a strikeout per inning in a year where he produced a yeomen like 219 innings the highest total in his career, and good for ninth in the majors last year.

Santana with confidence in that slider has the ability to repeat his 16 win performance if not exceed it. If he starts trying to get hitters out with his developing change up again, a repeat of 2007 isn’t out of the question.

After bursting on the scene in 2006 with an 11-2 record in 19 starts, Jared Weaver the 6’7 hurler from Northridge, California came back to reality with an 11-10 mark in 2008. He has never logged 200 plus innings in a big league campaign. Now this may read like tough review on a pitcher that many believe to be the future in Anaheim.

But the fact of the matter is, that since he burst onto the scene his K’s per nine (7.74 in 2008 vs 7.27 his career average) hasn’t changed much, nor that his strike out to walk ratio (2.82 in 2008 vs 2.82 his career average).

Manager Mike Scioscia is looking for Weaver to give the Angels more innings in the big leagues, but with a pitches per inning up over 17 last year and 16.7 for his career it doesn’t look like that can happen. We’ve heard about his maturing, but his 2006, 2008 and career numbers in pitcher per game, per inning and per plate appearance show no difference.

I suspect that unless Weaver changes something dramatically and learned to work deeper into games (he averaged fewer than 6 complete innings per start last year) he’ll never fulfill all that promise we saw two seasons ago.

Joe Saunders went 17-7 with a 3.41 ERA. But let’s put him on the list of pitchers where those two numbers don’t tell the entire story. Saunders strikeout numbers are less than stellar at 4.68 per nine, and he offers up a free pass for every 1.94 strikeouts. He held opponents to a batting average of .253 against him, but he is relinquishing and OBP of .308.

Although, people point to the fact that he has the intangible ability to get out of jams. That being said, conventional wisdom says he allows too many balls to be put in play and should suffer for it in 2009.

The fifth spot in the rotation is a battle between veteran Kelvim Escobar and Dustin Moseley. In Moseley the Halo’s have a pitcher that went 2-4 last year with a 6.79 Era in 12 appearances (10 starts) last year. Moseley has had two other chances to stick with the starting rotation, but it hasn’t happened yet.

The other option to fill the last spot is more of a known quantity in Escobar but he won’t be ready until after the all-star break. I wouldn’t be surprised to him usurp the 5th spot in the rotation when he returns.

Bullpen: Jose Arredondo has closer potential stuff and looked to be on his way to securing the job left open by K-Rod’s departure. His ERA was 1.62 and the opponents hit .190 vs Arrendondo in 61 innings. He also averaged almost a strikeout per inning; Scott Shields has been a staple in the Angels pen since 2001.

Over that time he’s always been able to get the big strikeout, but over the last three seasons his walks per nine has gone from 2.5 in 2006 to 3.9 in 2007 to 4.1 last season. It’s also noticeable his innings are down every year since 2004. Darren Oliver had a great season with the Angels last year, 54 appearances, 72 innings, and an ERA of 2.88 and a WHIP of 1.15.

The other big off-season acquisition is Brian Fuentes, brought in from Colorado to replace single season saves record holder Francisco Rodriguez. In the past four years Fuentes has blown three, seven, six, and three per season respectively. In this career Fuentes has 113 saves in 139 attempts.

That compares favorably to K-Rods totals of seven, six, four, and five saves blown in the same time frame. For his career K-Rod has 208 saves in 241 attempts. So in conversion percentages Rodriguez is about 86 percent to Fuentes’ 81percent.   The rest of the pen is a complete unknown. Will Moseley or Escobar end up in the pen? How about Jason Bulger? We expect to see him start the season with the big club. But that’s all I can tell you for sure.

Outlook:
The Angels are a hundred win team from a year ago, and their roster looks a lot the same and that could be the problem this year. They lost their closer, a starting pitcher that won 14 games, an MVP and Gold Glover at first base, and their steady left fielder.

They brought in Bobby Abreu and Brian Fuentes to fill two of those holes admirably. At the end of the day, there was no way to compensate for the departure of Mark Teixeira and couple that with an aging offence and this year we should see significant diminishing returns.

They are as good as anyone at the top two in their rotation spots with a pair of potential all-stars. Unfortunately, the rest of the numbers don’t speak so highly of the rest of the rotation. Although, it is still young and has shown promise.

The bullpen is an area the Angels have been rock solid in the past year, but staples like Scott Shields are starting to show their age. Based on the 162 game averages of the Angels I’d expect them to score about 738 runs (number deprived from the 162 averages of the projected starting line up and using Bill James’s runs created formula), and the rotations fielding independent ERA reads out around 5.98 for 2009.

Prediction:
Those numbers don’t impress nor do the moves to try to cover their losses. I see the Halo’s as the second best team in the AL West and finishing competitive in the Wild Card race at 92-70

Bobby Abreu Makes A Smart Move and Signs with the Angels

This offseason in MLB has been chalk full of talented young and old players looking to sign for big money. Not many of these big name MLB free agents have stayed loyal and just signed with the club they played with last season. Professional baseball is becoming more and more ruled by which team can shell out the dough opposed to players staying loyal to their teams.

So far we have seen the New York Yankees pretty much corner the free agent market by locking up three of the best free agents this off season had to offer. First it was the huge $161 million dollar deal to get arguably the best pitcher in the game right now in CC Sabathia.

Personally, I hoped he would come back to California. He grew up there as a Dodger fan and his is family lives there. The Dodgers were even favored to get him at one point and he wanted to play in LA, but no team can compete with $161 million dollar offer, especially the Dodgers who are trying to sign an increasingly greedy Manny Ramirez.

Then the Yankees wrapped a deal to have another pitching ace AJ Burnett playing in pine stripes for about $80 million. As that wasn’t good enough for the Yanks they go out and somehow pull Mark Teixeira away from his former team the Angels and his hometown team the Washington Nationals for an eye popping $180 million dollar deal.

Money is king in baseball. With no salary cap and teams like the Yankees with seemingly limitless funds to sign anyone they it has been almost unfair for other teams especially with the economy in the state that it is.

Even though those three big name free agents are off the board and the New York Yankees look like they are done signing players, there are a few good players that have flown somewhat under the radar like former Yankees outfielder Bobby Abreu.

After the Angels lost Mark Teixeira to the Yankees for a ridiculous amount of money, they were in of a big bat to replace the first baseman slugger. At first there were rumors flying around Anaheim that they would pursue Manny Ramirez, but they were quickly squashed with the team saying they had no interest in signing Manny.

After Manny there weren’t many big bats left on the free agent market. There was Adam Dunn in Arizona who the Los Angeles Dodgers were courting as a back up plan if they couldn’t sign Ramirez and then there was Bobby Abreu.

Somehow Abreu has seemed to slip through the cracks in this free agency market and land right on the Angels front door step. He isn’t a big money free agent like the Teixeira, Manny or even Adam Dunn, but he is a solid outfielder and the best the Angels could have done in replacing a much needed big bat in the lineup.

Reportedly the deal is only for one year for about $5 million dollars which is an absolute bargain in my opinion for a proven veteran like Abreu. The outfielder was looking for something a bit more long term like a three year deal, but settling for a one year deal with title contender in the AL was a smart move for both the Angels and Abreu.

Manny Deal With The Dodgers In The Bag

The Washington Nationals announced that they have signed Adam Dunn to a 2 year deal today. Also announced was the signing of Bobby Abreu by the Angels to a 1 year deal. Wow! What does that mean for the Dodgers?

Adam Dunn was speculated, with good cause, to be the top target for the Dodgers after Manny Ramirez, and Bobby Abreu were believed to be third in line on the wish list. So if the Dodgers did not sign Manny Ramirez to a deal they would go after Dunn, and if they could not sign Dunn, they would then go after Abreu and Dunn have already signed and the Dodgers still do not have Manny signed to a deal! Oh my, that really throws a wrench in the Dodgers plans. Or does it? Boras will really have a lot of ammo to force the Dodgers to give up the dollars and the years. Or does it?

I am going to call it here right now. Manny Ramirez has already signed a deal with the Dodgers! Yes, I said it.
I have to believe that the only reason that Abreu AND Dunn have both been able to sign, and on the same day mind you, is because they are no longer blocked by Manny Ramirez. I am also guessing that the Dodgers are not dumb enough to allow them both to sign if they did not already have Manny signed. That being said, my educated guess is that the Dodgers have already signed Manny but have yet to announce anything.

This is the only scenario that makes any sense to me. Dunn had been courted by the Nationals for a while now and everyone knows that Bowden loves Dunn, he drafted originally with the Reds. So the Nats have been courting Dunn all off season. But Dunn has been holding out for the Dodgers. He made it very clear that he favored the Dodgers over the Nationals.

Now I have not heard much about Abreu’s desire to play anywhere but it is actually a really good fit for him with the Angels, it totally makes sense. But for both of the obvious backup plans for the Dodgers to be off the table all of a sudden, on the same day? Something smelled odd about that.

Well, so what do you have to say about that? I want to know who disagrees or agrees and why. Only time will tell though.

Top 10 Free Agents Your Team Doesn’t Have

There is no doubt that this year’s free agent class has been one of the most epic of all time.  There was a ton of big time talent available like CC Sabathia, Mark Texeira, Manny Ramirez, and Adam Dunn. If you are a team in need then you have the opportunity to really turn things around. Just ask the New York Yankees!

Yet, given the amount of talent available the market has developed slower than Andruw Jones’ bat this season. We all have Scott Boras to thank for that. He likes to hoard his players until the last minute while he tries everything to create a circus and a buzz around his players. And unfortunately he represents the majority of the biggest names in baseball.

Another thing that has slowed the market is the economic uncertainty that owners are facing. No one is sure what the impact will be on their respective markets. If you ask Scott Boras baseball is recession proof. Nevertheless teams are treading very carefully, especially those in smaller markets that rely more on ticket sales.

But I need to also mention that we need to not only look at this year’s free agent crop when analyzing the market. We need to consider who will be on the market in the coming years. Fred Claire does a great job of analyzing the free agent market in the coming years. Read it if you have the time but the jist of it is that the market, in terms of the amount of talent that will be available, will be much thinner in the years to come. And that tells us that now is the time to buy, especially considering that contracts are going to be smaller this year because of the amount of talent out there and because of the economic uncertainty.

That being said, here are the top 10 free agents left in this year’s market:

MANNY RAMIREZ, OF/DH

Not much needs to be mentioned here as Manny Ramirez is one of the greatest right handed hitters of all time. He recently hit .396 with 17 homers and 53 RBIs in 53 games for Dodgers and pretty much carried them into the playoffs, while making everyone on the team better around him. Sure he has a checkered past and has proven to be quite juvenile. But it is apparent that all he wants to be respected for his talents and acknowledged. He has a ton of money and I do not believe that is all that motivates him. And Harold Reynolds of ESPN and MLB Network notes that what Manny has done in the past is nowhere close to as criminal as what so many other players have done on and off the field! Manny just attracts attention because of his electric personality and bat.

DEREK LOWE, SP

If you are looking for pitching, and most teams are, then Derek Lowe is your safest option left because if his consistency. He averages more than 15 wins a season, throws a heavy sinker that keeps the ball on the ground, has a stellar record of not being injured, and has proven to be a great big game pitcher. The Mets are the front runners to sign him but I don’t think that the three-year, $36 million offer will get it done unless Lowe is really motivated to pitch in NY this season.

BOBBY ABREU, OF/DH

Abreu is consistent and his cautious approach keeps him healthy. He is in very good company, joining Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols, as having reached at least 100 RBI in the past six seasons. His defense is average, and is better than Manny’s and Dunn’s but that isn’t saying much. He is patient at the plate and uses the whole field. He would set a great example for other young hitters on any team he lands with. He will probably be the best bargain of this year’s free agent class as he is highly underrated.

ADAM DUNN, OF/DH

Adam Dunn is a great power hitting left handed run producer. But he is a below average fielder that has proven to be cranky player when he doesn’t get his way. Dunn does not run well, Manny might be able to beat him to first, and he strikes out more than almost anyone else. However his patience at the plate gives him a good OBP and his all or nothing approach gives you about 40 home runs and 100 RBI each season. Given his lack defensive liability and power stoke he may be well suited for the American League, possibly the Angels, which is why I list him as a possible DH. It has been reported that the Nationals and Jim Bowden may make a run at Dunn but the Dodgers have also listed him as a fall back option if they do not land Manny.

BEN SHEETS, SP

Big Ben is a great pitcher with electric stuff….. when he is healthy that is. He has a better career than A.J. Burnett but also has an injury plagued history that is keeping teams away. He is definitely not getting the respect he deserves which makes him a possible bargain and candidate for a short-term incentive laden contract. If he stays healthy he can be one of the top pitchers in the league. Unfortunately that is too big of an “if” for most teams it seems.

PAT BURRELL, OF/DH

Pat Burrell has all the shortcomings of Dunn. Poor defensive skills, no speed, and strikes out at a dizzying rate. But he is also good for 30+ home runs and 100 RBI a season. His declining defense and lack of speed also make him well suited for move to the American League. I am totally amazed that there are not more teams going after his power bat. Maybe it is because of the fact that he has not been able to put together a complete season, often playing poorly in either the first or second half of each season. He tends to not be consistent and that maybe his main drawback. I still feel that Burrell is in the same group with Sheets and Abreu as one of the more underrated free agents of this year’s market.

MILTON BRADLEY, OF/DH

Bradley is coming off of a stellar season in which he lead the entire AL in both on-base percentage (.436) and OPS (.999). Another plus is that he is a switch hitter that hits for power and average. The reason that I list him so low is that he has bad knees that limit him to probably 130-135 games in the field. It is said that he could still go to the National League and the Nationals are said to have him at the top of their list, as well as the Cubs.

JON GARLAND, SP

Jon Garland is coming off of a weak 2008, which is never good for a free agent, despite a respectable 14 wins which can be counted on from him. He rarely strikes anyone out and is said to be one of those guys that pitches to contact, so he needs a solid defense behind him. His career is not that dissimilar to that of Burnett or Lowe but again his 2008 was not super, with an ERA of 4.90 and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1.53. Garland would be a much better fit for the NL where there is no DH and has been rumored to be sought after by the Cardinals and their pitching maestro Dave Duncan.

OLIVER PEREZ, SP

Perez is solid lefty, posting 25 wins over the past two seasons with the Mets. He has proven to be pretty durable by pitching over 170 innings in the past two years. He is a strikeout pitcher, averaging 150+ over the past three seasons but is also hittable with an average of 150 hits per season during that same span of time. So he is not spectacular but can be solid. Unfortunately Boras is his agent and is of course asking for way too much, 5 years and $70 million. I doubt that he’ll get that in today’s market. The Mets would like him back but need to first see if they can land Lowe before they will make him an offer.

ORLANDO CABRERA, SS

I am going to round out my list with an infielder, not just to round out the top 10 but because he deserves it. Cabrera is much better, right now, than Renteria. And Renteria surprisingly signed an $18.5 million deal. Cabrera is a masterful fielder, earning this year’s Defensive Player of the year from MLB.com/TWIB and just missed the Gold Glove award in the AL. Along with his glove, Cabrera also brings his bat with him to the ball park. He hit a respectable .281, can score around 100 runs per season, will swipe some bags and makes for a great lead-off man. Unfortunately the market was full of good SS this year so he has lost some value. But some team somewhere will end up with a great lead-off man/SS at a great value.
Honorable mentions: Jason Giambi, Orlando Hudson, Joe Crede, Andy Pettitte, Garret Anderson, Randy Wolf, and Freddy Garcia.