Phillies Fans It Is Not Time To Panic

If you have been watching the Phillies lately you may be wondering just where exactly DID the offense go? Or you may be wondering how it is possible that Chase Utley and Ryan Howard were a combined 0-22 with 12 strikeouts in their series with the Dodgers this past week. This is a very tough concept to grasp after what the team showed  last season.

Scoring only 24 runs their most recent home stands against the Braves and Dodgers, the Phillies just cannot seem to get the ball moving.

Leadoff hitter Jimmy Rollins has struggled almost the entire season, and was dropped to fifth in the lineup this past week for back-to-back games. Last night after resuming his role at the top of the lineup against the Dodgers, Rollins was still unable produce runs.

Shane Victorino was 0-4, Ryan Howard struck out to end the game as usual and was 0-4, and Chase Utley fell below .300 for the first time this season.

The offense has been a huge problem for Philadelphia but the defense is also on its way down the elevator as well.

In 5 straight appearances Brad Lidge has surrendered at least one run, Jamie Moyer got “waxed” on Wednesday night after throwing three solid innings, and after the best start of the season for Cole Hamels (who struck out 9 through 7 innings) Chad Durbin surrendered two critical runs that lead to another Phillies loss at the “Bank”.

There is no doubt that the Phillies are just “a mess”, but IS IT officially time to hit the panic button in Philly?

During the first 30 games of the season, the ‘Phightin Phils have shown promise, and at other times the remains of what could be called a World Series hangover tend to lurk on in through the clubhouse doors.

The 2009 season started slow for the Phillies as they dropped their first two games at home to the Braves. Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer immediately picked up their first losses of the season while Cole Hamels also picked up his first loss on the road against the Rockies the following week.

The Phils hovered around the .500 mark for most of April until it came time to play the ever-so-hot Florida Marlins.  Condrey, Moyer, and Madson all tallied wins as the Phillies blew the Marlins out of the water taking the sweep. The series proved to be nothing short of impressive.

In game 1 Shane Victorino hit his first career regular season grand slam highlighting a seven-run rally in the ninth to take the victory 7-3.

In game two, Chase Utley’s RBI in the top of the 10th proved to be the winning run sticking it out for another victory winning 6-4.
Shane Victorino dominated game three knocking in 4 “ribbies” and stealing two as the Phillies crushed the Marlins 13-2.

The next series was against the Nationals where the team capped off a season high 5 game winning streak picking up two victories.

As the Phils continued working through the beginning of May the defending champs dropped 2 of 4 to the Mets and were headed back home to take on the Braves and Dodgers.

Jayson Werth had no trouble proving he is “Werth It” stealing four bases including home in a single game, while Carlos Ruiz stayed solid at the plate after making a few stance adjustments.

However, the rest of the team just could not seem to get the wheels turning. Key RBI opportunities and poor decisions on the bases seemed to be the difference between the Braves and Phils. While the Dodgers just ripped at the Phillies pitching spanking 38 hits in just three games compared to the Phillies 10.

Charlie Manual has expressed concern about his club stating, “We don’t look good.”

So is it really time to hit that panic button if you are a Phillies fan?

Not Yet.

We all know the defending World Champs have one of the best teams in baseball, possibly even a better team than last year with the addition of Raul Ibanez.

Trust me when I say this. Victorino WILL drive in runs, Ryan Howard WILL make contact, and Jimmy Rollins WILL return to his old self at the top of the order. The question is WHEN will it start, and WILL it happen soon enough to compete with the Mets, Marlins, and Braves in the NL East.

As long as the proper adjustments are timely made and players start stepping up like the play of Jayson Werth during the last few games, hits will come, runs will be scored, and games will be won.

This is not the time to panic just yet. The Phillies will rise out of their slump and you will see the them at the top of the NL East come October, I guarantee it!

*Inserts 2008 WS Game 5 DVD*

The All Time Best VORP for Second Basemen Since 1954

A reader of mine recently asked me if Boston Red Sox 2B Dustin Pedroia had the best VORP at his position this year (2008) than any other player before him. But before I go further, some of you might be asking, “What in the world is VORP anyway?”. According to Baseball Prospectus, VORP stands for Value Over Replacement Player, which is broken down as the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances.

VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player’s defense. Researching this was a bit tedious, but well worth it! The Baseball Prospectus database has gone as far back as 1954 in calculating VORP. What I found out is that Pedroia, depsite all of the MVP talk he’s getting, just beat out the Phillies’ Chase Utley by a tenth of a point in VORP this year, 63.3 to 63.2. In comparing him to the all time leaders at second base, he didn’t even finish in the top 20.

The top player at this position with a VORP of 98.8, which is 35.5 points higher than Pedroia, was Chuck Knoblauch in 1996. For the remainder of the top 20, please see the chart below. So much for Pedroia having the best VORP ever by a second baseman!

In fact, Utley, for all of his offensive hype, just made the top 20 with his stellar performance in 2007 with a score of 68.8 (the same score Ryne Sandberg had in 1984)! Between Pedroia’s 63.3 and the top 20 list provided below there are 10 other higher scores from 4 players who are already in the top 20 and 4 others who are not (Bobby Grich, Willie Randolph, Mark Loretta and Jose Vidro).

Therefore, the bottom line is that Pedroia’s 2008 VORP of 63.3 ranks only 31st on the all time VORP list for second basemen. I hope that helps give people some perspective, but don’t let this conclusion fool you. Pedroia still had a very good year, but it just goes to show you that you shouldn’t jump to conclusions about how great of a year a player either is having or has had without digging a little deeper into past performances.

Year    Player                           VORP
1996    Chuck Knoblauch 98.8
1976    Joe  Morgan 94.2
2000    Jeff  Kent                      92.7
1975    Joe  Morgan                  91.6
1996    Roberto  Alomar 85.1
2001    Roberto  Alomar           81.6
1998    Craig  Biggio                80.5
1997    Craig  Biggio                79.8
1974    Joe  Morgan                  79.8
1999    Roberto  Alomar           77.9
2002    Jeff  Kent 77.7
1973    Joe  Morgan                  77.7
2001    Bret  Boone 77.4
2000    Edgardo  Alfonzo 76.9
1974    Rod  Carew 76.5
1975    Rod  Carew                   75.4
1993    Roberto  Alomar           75.2
1972    Joe  Morgan                  74.1
1977    Joe  Morgan                  71.8
1995    Chuck  Knoblauch        71.6
1991    Julio  Franco 70.1
2007    Chase  Utley 68.8
1984    Ryne  Sandberg 68.8

Peter Schiller also writes for BaseballReflections.com, which he started in October 2007. To see more of his work over the past year, please follow the link

provided. He also writes for Seamheads.com once a month.

Who Will Win The 2008 State Farm Home Run Derby?

Chase Utley and late add Lance Berkman are the two notables seeking out a victory in the ole’ homerum derby next week at Yankee Stadium. Josh Hamilton, Dan Uggla and the recently injured defending champion Vladimir Guerrero will also compete in the sluggfest sponsored by State Farm.

Currently, Utley leads the MLB in homeruns (24) while the Florida Marlins’ Uggla (23 knockers) and Astros’ Berkman (22 knockers) also are in the top five in homers this season.

RBI Magazine Prediction : Chase Utley

Chase has proven himself under the spotlight before. Vlady is coming off an injury and as long as the bat of Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun is not corked Chase should be the one to watch!

Oh and BTW! A- Rod will skip this year’s derby! His excuse: “I want to protect my finely tuned swing”.

The Derby will air on ESPN July 14th, at 8 pm. Eastern Time. RBI Magazine Plans to Live Blog the event!