A Case For Sabermetrics

So, in these posts the past few months I have given you all a brief definition of Sabermetrics and then given you a few key stats (VORP and RC), but now, as an aside, I felt it necessary to give you more of a why.

We will do this by analyzing the 2008 year of Red Sox DH David Ortiz compared to his previous two years as a member of the Boston Red Sox to see if his skills are diminishing due to his age (33) and body type (large). It has been widely reported this off season, that Ortiz is quite possibly on the decline.

Personally, I think it has more to do with his ailing knees that were operated on prior to the 2008 season, but too close to spring training for them to heal properly. Then add to that, the freakish wrist sheath injury that limited him to 109 games. He shook it off for a while upon his return from the DL, but he started feeling or hearing a (pain-free) clicking in the injured wrist down the stretch run. Tell me what team-oriented player wouldn’t be affected by that in a playoff race and especially when he’s the teams 3 or 4 hitter.

I choose the two years prior to 2008 due to their close proximity to last year and their significance, they were considered his best seasons as a pro. In 2006, Ortiz hit a career high in HRs (54, a new Red Sox record), ISO (.349) and his third best RBI total (137). In 2007, he scored his second highest Runs total (116), his best BA and OBP (.332 and .445).

To do this, we will look at his G, R, HR, RBI, BA, OBP, SLG, ISO, BB Rate, SO Rate, FB%, GB%, LINEDR%, POPUP%, BABIP and HRR.

The new metrics in this post are BABIP, which is batting average on balls in play; LINEDR% is the rate of line drives hit; FB% % is the rate of fly balls hit; ISO, which is his isolated power numbers (in terms of extra bases per AB); BB Rate is the percentage of plate appearances that result in a walk; SO Rate is the percentage of plate appearances that result in a strike out; GB% is the rate of ground balls; POPUP% is the rate of pop ups hit and HRR is the rate of HR hit per AB.

By the Numbers

First, let’s take a look at the similarities between these three years. His strike out rate (SO Rate) and HR rate (HRR) matched that of his 2007 numbers (his 2006 HRR was 8%, 3% higher than 2007 and 2008), his ground ball percentage (GB%) and line drive percentage (LINEDR%) matched that of his 2006 season (his GB% was 1% lower than 2007) and his BABIP was only .001 lower than his 2006 season (.273 to .274).

Second, let’s take a look at the differences between these three years. We will avoid the following stats (R, HR and RBI) because they were directly affected by only playing in 109 games as opposed to 149 and 151 in the other two years. His BA of .264 was the lowest of his career when playing in 100+ games (he hit .234 with the Twins in 2001 while playing in 89 games). His OBP was .369 was tied for the lowest it’s been as a member of the Red Sox since 2003 (it had been .380 or as high as .445 between 2004-2007).

His 2008 slugging (SLG) of .507 and .243 isolated power (ISO) were both the lowest marks as a member of the Red Sox. His walk rate (BB Rate) was down 3% in 2008, but it was still higher than it was in his first two seasons in Boston (both were at 11%). His flyball rate (FB%) was down 5% depending on which site you use (Baseball Prospectus or FanGraphs) so we will call this one even as FanGraphs does. His pop up percentage was up 4% from 2008 to 2006 and 7% from 2008 to 2007.

My analysis

Given this analysis, I truly believe that Ortiz was more affected by his ailing knees which were still bothering him after off season surgery. This ailment alone caused him not to be able to drive the ball as easily as he has in the past. The health of the lower body of a power hitter like Ortiz if pivotal to his power numbers and Ortiz was learning how to be productive in spite of not having his full weight behind his swings.

Then came the freakish torn tendon sheath in his left wrist. Now remember, for lefties, their left wrist is the one that is in back and having problems with that back wrist would impede Ortiz to drive the ball as well. Players don’t usually let go with their hand that’s in back until after contact. I’m not sure if this had any other impact, but he has also had past concerns with his shoulder, too. Therefore, nothing else really strikes me as being a concern that David Ortiz is in decline, but only time will tell for sure.

My 2009 David Ortiz Projection

If healthy (knees, wrist and shoulder), I expect to see Ortiz put up the following numbers:

G: 150 R: 101 HR: 31 RBI: 122  BA:  .280  OBP: .380  SLG: .615  ISO: .290  BABIP: .290

Peter Schiller also writes monthly for Seamheads.com and almost daily at his personal baseball blog, Baseball Reflections.com. Please follow the links to read his work at these two other sites.

Papelbon Not Alone In Ripping Manny

When Bill Reynolds of the Providence Journal learned that Manny Ramirez was traded to the Dodgers and that he was leaving his beloved Red Sox, his very next article began with the words  “The Circus Has Left Town”.

From supposedly cutting across the field to use the bathroom during a game, to his signature dreadlocks, in addition to his power at the plate and star-like talent, Bill Reynolds knows Manny Ramirez will always be Manny Ramirez. For some Manny is a hero, while others continue to throw the controversial player under the bus in disapproval of his actions and attitude.

According to SI.com, Jonathan Papelbon, who is a promoter and seller of the ACAI berry, had a few choice words for Ramirez during an interview in Esquire magazine’s April issue. He is quoted with the following;

“It just takes one guy to bring an entire team down, and that’s exactly what was happening. Once we saw that, we weren’t afraid to get rid of him. … He had to go. It (stunk), but that was the only scenario that was going to work. That was it for us.”

Papelbon also told the magazine that Tim Wakefield, David Ortiz and Jason Varitek now share the same views.

Harold Reynolds (not to be confused with Bill) conducted an interview with Ortiz back on May 13, 2007. Ortiz talked about how special Manny was and what qualities he can bring to a team.

“Manny is the kind of guy that completes everything”, Big Papi said. “Young players will learn from Manny, it’s just good to have this guy around”.

More than a year later on September 17, 2008 we got the opposite reaction from Curt Schilling, who blasted Ramirez considerably saying that the slugger’s “level of disrespect to teammates and people was unfathomable.”

Schilling also continued to speak about how teammates referred to Manny as the “Carl Everett” of the locker room.

Ortiz was also caught going back on his kind words. In November of 2008, Big Papi was quoted saying;

“The Manny situation was a tough situation for the team, for us the teammates, for him as a player,” Ortiz said. “He was trying to get to be out, everybody knows, it’s not news, for the past few years and it was something that it was getting worse and worse and worse every year.”

What caused Ortiz to talk about Manny in such a positive way, then turn 180 degrees against his so-called “friend”? The evidence obviously tell us that the beginning to middle part of the 2008 season may have been Manny’s downfall with the club.

In 2008, the same year in which  Manny tallied his 500th homerun, a few confrontations with traveling secretary Jack McCormick, and a certain slapping incident involving Kevin Youkilis did not help his evolving reputation.

McCormick and Ramirez were arguing over Ramirez’s large game-day request for 16 tickets to a game in Houston, when Ramirez reportedly pushed McCormick to the ground after saying “Just do your job.”

On July 25, after sitting out one game against the Seattle Mariners with a sore knee, Ramirez was originally slated to start against the Yankees. Several minutes before the game, however, he informed manager Terry Francona, through a bench coach, that he would not be playing.

When back in action, Ramirez frequently did not run out ground balls. Assuming that this was due to his displeasure about his contract situation, many Red Sox fans and reporters, including Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe, called for Ramirez to be traded.

“He was on a different train”,  Papelbon said. “It’s like cancer. He had to go!”

If you look at these situations in general, you would have to say that  Papelbon does have a point!  Manny was just being Manny!

Manny does want to finish his career in LA, and we also know he was not happy in Boston and vice versa as his last year with the club dwindled, something Papelbon has not been afraid re-emphasize as common knowledge.

The Manny situation is now in the hands of the Dodgers organization and it is time to GET OVER IT! I am not saying Ramirez will behave from this point on out, but he does seem to be handling himself well as a Dodger.

Papelbon should have offered Manny a bottle of his beloved anti-oxidant Monavie! ACAI to the rescue!