The Braves pitching staff hasn’t quite been the same since the Greg Maddux-John Smoltz-Tom Glavine era ended following the 2002 season, but you could make a case that the 2008 campaign was the lowest of the lows. The team entered opening day with three potential starters (John Smoltz, Mike Hampton, and Chuck James) already on the IR and all three missed most of the season. Tim Hudson and Tom Glavine were expected to carry the front end of the rotation, but neither could stay healthy. Hudson made 22 starts before requiring Tommy John surgery on his elbow, which is expected to keep him out until at least the middle of the 2009 season. Meanwhile, Glavine struggled to just 13 starts all year.

Picking up the slack was a long list of new faces, which included the likes of Jair Jurrjens, Jorge Campillo, Jo-Jo Reyes, Charlie Morton, James Parr, and Jeff Bennett. All six will be back in 2009, but manager Bobby Cox won’t need to rely on them quite as much thanks to the off-season acquisitions of Javier Vazquez, Derek Lowe, and Kenshin Kawakami.

Here is a look at what should be a stellar rotation for Atlanta this season:

1. Javier Vazquez – Most scouting reports would call Vazquez a career underachiever. The 32-year old righty was projected early in his career to be one of the league’s best pitchers for a long time, but he hasn’t quite lived up to the hype. Nonetheless, Vazquez has been extremely productive over the last decade and, at times, has shown flashes of greatness. 2009 has all the makings of a breakout season for several reasons. First, he will be making the move the National League, which means 2-3 at-bats for the opposing pitcher rather than a designated hitter. Another reason is the switch from long ball-friendly U.S. Cellular Field to a more pitcher-friendly Turner Field.

Last season in Chicago, Vazquez put up what might seem like a poor 12-16 record and 4.67 ERA, especially when you consider he went 15-8 with a 3.74 ERA in 2007. Looking a bit deeper into the numbers, it’s not hard to find a few reasons for the large dip. His BABIP made a large jump from .297 in 2007 to .328 in 2008 and his LOB% dropped from 74.5% to 68.3%. Add to the equation a hike in line drives from 16.8% to 20.1% and a walk rate well higher than his career average and you have some clarity. Fortunately for the Braves, BABIP and LOB% are considered uncontrollable by the pitcher and Vazquez should have a better defense behind him, which means his 2008 “struggles” can certainly be overcome. It should also be noted that Vazquez is a strikeout machine, sitting down just under 8 per nine innings over his career.

2. Derek Lowe – At the age of 35, Lowe is by no means a long term solution for the Braves, but the righty has proven he is a reliable top of the rotation starter over the last few years. The former Dodger has pitched at least 182 innings every season since 2001, which is an almost unheard of resume in terms of reliability. In that 8 year span, his FIP has reach no higher than 4.26 (2003 and 2004) and has been as low as 3.26 (2008). Lowe is coming off his best season as a pro since he went 21-8 with a 2.58 ERA for Boston in 2002.

Lowe isn’t going to strike out as many as Vazquez will, but he should be just as good, if not better. It would be unreasonable to expect Lowe to put up numbers as good as he did last year (14-11 record, 3.24 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), but he shouldn’t be any less effective. Compared to his career averages, his BABIP and LOB% were only slightly in his favor in 2008. His impressive 1.92 walk rate last season was the best of his career, but the odds are that his 2009 rate will be closer to his 2.53 career mark. Regardless, Lowe should be a reliable and effective top of the rotation pitcher for the Braves.

3. Jair Jurrjens – Jurrjens was a new face in Atlanta last season after being acquired from Detroit as part of the Edgar Renteria deal, but his effectiveness at the major league level wasn’t a total shocker. The 23-year old righty made a team-high 31 starts and went 13-10 with a 3.68 ERA in his first full season in the big leagues. Before the trade, Jurrjens tore through the minor leagues from 2003-2007, which led to a promotion late in the 2007 season. He would manage just 30-plus innings of experience in the American League before the Braves acquired him the following October.

Most of what you saw from Jurrjens last year is much of what you will see throughout his career. He isn’t going to put up the strikeouts like Vazquez has, but he will do his job. One full season in the majors makes it tough to guess what he will do in 2009, but a majority of the projection systems have him pretty consistent with what he did a year ago.

4. Kenshin Kawakami – The Braves won the bidding war for this year’s top incoming Japanese player and they hope Kawakami can hold down the fourth rotation spot. Kawakami is a right-handed pitcher and, at the age of 33, is by no means your conventional rookie. He already has 11 years of experience as a starting pitcher for Japan’s Chunichi Dragons, where he put up a winning record in 8 of those seasons.

There are no advanced numbers available for Kawakami, but it is pretty easy to tell that he is more than capable of pitching effectively in the majors. He is coming off what might have been his best professional season at 9-5 with a 2.30 ERA. Over the past 8 seasons, his worst ERA was 3.74 and was below 3.00 three times. His strikeout ability in Japan compares to that of Vazquez in the majors. Both average right around a strikeout an inning, but only time will tell if Kawakami can translate that to the majors.

5. This is the only spot still up for grabs. The candidates include:

-Jorge Campillo – Where is the love for this guy? Most “experts” seem to be writing him off for the spot despite a 2008 campaign that saw him post an 8-7 record and 3.91 ERA in 25 starts. Up until last season, the 30-year old had spent a majority of his pitching career in the Mariners’ minor league system, but did make a few appearances in the majors, where he was less than spectacular. Campillo did impress at the AAA level in 2007, the season before Atlanta acquired him, putting up a 9-6 record and 3.07 ERA in 24 appearances (22 starts). That is back-to-back impressive seasons for Campillo (even if one was in the minors) and he should be the favorite to round out the rotation.

- Jo-Jo Reyes – Reyes seems to be the top competition to Campillo for the final spot in the rotation. The 24-year old has 32 career starts in 2 seasons under his belt, but is just 5-13 with a 5.94 ERA in that time. His career 5.60 FIP shows that the struggles are no fluke, while his .312 BABIP and 67.0 LOB% have remained relatively steady since his 2007 debut. A major reason for Reyes’ struggles seems to be strikeouts. After averaging almost one an inning in 458 minor league innings, he has managed just 105 in 163.2 major league innings. Reyes is projected to be better than he’s been the past 2 seasons, but probably not good enough to warrant a spot over Campillo. A good Spring Training could change that.

- Charlie Morton – At 25 years old, Morton has youth on his side, but what he doesn’t have is the experience of his two main competitors or the major league success of Campillo. The righty made 15 starts for Atlanta in his first major league season last year, and struggled to a 4-8 record and 6.15 ERA. His .304 BABIP, 60.7 LOB%, and 5.14 FIP show that he didn’t exactly get all the breaks, but it’s hard to blame his troubles completely on luck. He will need to prove he can do better than that in Spring Training or he will start 2009 in Richmond.

- James Parr – Parr is a bit of a long shot for the opening day rotation, but that doesn’t mean he can’t get the job. The 22-year old made his major league debut last season and went 1-0 with a 4.84 ERA in 5 starts. Unless he dazzles the coaching staff in Spring Training, Parr, the youngest of the top four candidates, is likely to begin the year at Richmond.

- Tom Glavine – As of today, he is still a free agent, but we still need to address the possibility of him being signed. If he is, there is no doubt that he would immediately take the final spot in the rotation. Glavine is 42 years old and wouldn’t sign with Atlanta if he didn’t expect to start. The southpaw struggled with injuries last season after enjoying an almost inhuman spree of health since he entered the major leagues in 1987. Glavine was 2-4 with a 5.54 ERA in just 13 starts last season. His LOB% and BABIP were right at his career average and 6.02 FIP prove his ugly numbers were no fluke. Glavine is no longer the dominant pitcher he was for most of his career, but when healthy, he can contribute to the bottom of a rotation. If he accepts the Braves offer, he will be playing with an incentive-laden contract, which means he will have financial incentive to play well.

There are two other names worth mentioning. These guys won’t start the season in the rotation, but could be there by midseason.

- Tim Hudson – As mentioned, Hudson had Tommy John Surgery last season and will be out at least half of the 2009 season and could miss the entire year. It is never easy to tell if a pitcher will be able to recover from this type of surgery, but it has been done before and Hudson is giving it a shot. He will be 33 years old on opening day and, when healthy, is still a top pitcher in the major leagues. Before the injury, he was 11-7 with a 3.17 ERA in 2008 and has won at least 11 games every season of his major league career. If the Braves are in contention late in 2009 and Hudson can return to his old self, the Braves would go into September with the league’s deepest (and possible it’s best) rotation.

- Tommy Hanson – There is little doubt that mlb.com’s 24^th-ranked prospect will make his major league debut in 2009. The 22-year old righty has a 2.73 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 323 minor league innings since 2006 and his 373 strikeouts in that span show how dominant he can be. Hanson projects as the future ace of the Braves, but it might not be until 2010 that he is a fixture in the rotation. Expect him to make his major league debut in 2009, but unless the pitching staff is again plagued with injuries, he likely won’t see significant action for another year.

Sources: www.mlb.com; www.baseball-reference.com; www.fangraphs.com

Not sure what LOB%, BABIP, and FIP means? Check out The Hardball Times Glossary for an explanation.

The Dodgers have made three offers to Manny Ramirez over the past 4 months, all of which the slugger has rejected. Reports earlier this week make it clear that Manny wants more than a 3-year deal and a long term commitment, a task that will be tough to accomplish by Manny’s agent Scott Boras in today’s troublesome economy.

The Dodgers however, have not given up on their 2008 season gem, as Dodgers GM Frank McCourt is keeping conversations tight with Manny and his agent. There is no question about it though, the Dodgers WANT Manny and Manny NEEDS the Dodgers.

In an article written by SI.com’s Jon Heyman, Heyman expresses why Pedro Martinez would actually be a fantastic acquisition for the Dodgers club. Dodgers GM Ned Colletti has told news reporters earlier this week that the Dodgers are indeed targeting another pitcher to add to the starting rotation.

After losing Derek Lowe the Dodgers are in desperate need of a veteran pitcher for the “pen”. With Oliver Perez, Freddy Garcia and Tim Redding, all off the radar and signing with the Mets, Pedro seems like a great candidate to play in Los Angeles. Will Manny and Pedro reunite? It could all be falling into place over the next few days.

First we’ll examine the overall economic factors. Just look at the current free agent class, (most) teams are just not as willing to shell out big money and especially not big contracts for fear of how the economy will affect their market. The fact that Manny has not yet signed is a big testament to that, as well as the many free agents like Derek Lowe, Francisco Rodriquez (K-Rod), or Pat Burrell who all had to sign well below what they might have before the recession.

But the REAL reason, for the time being, is arbitration. Most teams have many arbitration hearings, or contracts, to work out as we approach spring training. This means that as team budgets shrink the potential money that will have to be paid via arbitration hearings or contracts will have a greater impact. Sure, typically 20 million dollars in payroll at this time of year wouldn’t be as big a deal. But with the economic uncertainty that teams are facing in their respective markets the money that teams might have to pay out in the coming weeks has become a bigger issue.

No one is really saying this of course, teams want to downplay the economy at some times and rightfully so. But I guarantee you that teams are waiting to find out what budget they will have left to work with before they start to go after big free agents before spring training. It makes sense, I mean let’s all find out what we will owe our current employees before we go out and hire any new ones.

Most teams have many arbitration hearings to go through. Shoring up young talented players like Andre Ethier, Russel Martin, or Cole Hamels is definitely a priority for teams. Especially since most teams are getting a great deal for these players. And most teams have more arbitration eligible players than not. Now I understand that not all arbitration eligible players make it to an arbitration hearing. Clubs try to do all that they can to avoid this and you can see this by a flurry of smaller contracts being worked out right now in order to avoid arbitration.

After all of these contracts get worked out you will start to see teams get more aggressive with their signings, albeit at the 11th hour. I’ll bet that we see a Manny deal after the Dodgers have finished dealing with all of their arbitration eligible players that they have left. And after Manny goes, so will Dunn, Abreu, and others. The same will go for pitching; clubs will make stronger offers to pitchers like Oliver Perez, Ben Sheets, Randy Wolf, and Jon Garland after they finish hammering out salaries for their existing staff.

I’m not sure why this is being treated like such a white elephant and I am also not aware of anyone else that has pointed this out. It seems pretty clear that clubs are holding back on contracts for good reasons.  Other than the overall economic situations, which are all relevant to each team’s specific market, currently it is the uncertainty over what clubs will have to pay via arbitration or new contracts for arbitration eligible players.

According to few recent reports the Mets general manager Omar Minaya has offered Perez a three-year, $30 million deal. Perez has been referred to as “the backup plan” if negotiations with Derek Lowe would indeed go south, and in reality they did-straight to the Atlanta Braves.

Other sources say that GM Omar Minaya would have rather signed Oliver Perez than Derek Lowe in the first place.

Minaya may get his wish after all, as the Mets are expected to bring back the lefty in the wake of losing Derek Lowe to the Braves.

With the recent signing of Tim Redding and possibly Perez a stronger defense is in the making. Players like Jose Reyes will hope to jump-start the offensive attack in hopes of making the 2009 post season.

Perez was acquired by the Mets during the 2006 season.

The signing comes after negotiations between the Braves and Derek Lowe heated up following a meeting held last Thursday afternoon, with agent Scott Boras, Derek Lowe, Braves manager Bobby Cox, general manager Frank Wren and pitching coach Roger McDowell all in attendance.

Miguel Salcido reports that Lowe averages more than 15 wins a season, throws a heavy sinker that keeps the ball on the ground, has a stellar record of not being injured, and has proven to be a great big game pitcher-a perfect fit for the Atlanta Braves.

The Mets are now officially out of the hunt offering Lowe only $36MM over the span of 3 years. The Mets will now focus on their secondary target Oliver Perez.

Update 11:02 P.M. EST - The Atlanta Journal first reported that Lowe agreed on the deal.

Miguel Salcido reports that Lowe averages more than 15 wins a season, throws a heavy sinker that keeps the ball on the ground, has a stellar record of not being injured, and has proven to be a great big game pitcher-a perfect fit for the Atlanta Braves.

The Mets now seem to be out of the hunt offering Lowe only $36MM over the span of 3 years. The Mets may now focus on their secondary target Oliver Perez.

Update 11:02 P.M. EST - The Atlanta Journal is now reporting that Lowe has agreed on the deal.

The meeting which was held on Thursday afternoon, was said to last almost three hours with agent Scott Boras, Derek Lowe, Braves manager Bobby Cox, general manager Frank Wren and pitching coach Roger McDowell all in attendance. The meeting must have been a “Brave” success as According to MLB.com, the Braves are expected to make a formal offer to Lowe as early as Monday or Tuesday.

If you are a team like the Atlanta Braves-looking for a starter to lead off your rotation, consistency is a must and if consistency is a must, then Derek Lowe is the prize.

Miguel Salcido reports that Lowe averages more than 15 wins a season, throws a heavy sinker that keeps the ball on the ground, has a stellar record of not being injured, and has proven to be a great big game pitcher.

The Mets were the front runners to sign Lowe but the $36MM offer already seems to have fizzled out. Unless the Mets can come up with more funds, Lowe may be on the hill for Atlanta with Javier Vazquez moving behind him in the rotation.

A few offers may have already been made to Lowe, but as of yet NO offers have been approved or made official by the Braves organization.

The Phillies lefthanded hitting brigade currently includes Geoff Jenkins, Matt Stairs and Greg Dobbs, but sources say the Phillies are currently in need of a righthanded bat to stablize the offense in the late stages of a game.

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports is reporting that Nomar would see a dramatic paycut if he does indeed sign with the Phillies. Rosenthal also reports that the Phillies interest in right-handed pitcher Derek Lowe was more serious before they signed Ibanez.

The Phillies are also showing interest in outfielder Gabe Kapler as a potential righthanded bat. No offers have been made as of yet, but a few could come very soon if either player does show interest.

The Boston, MA (Sports Network) and the Seattle Post are reporting that right-hander John Smoltz is headed to the Red Sox. Smoltz who spent his entire Major League career with the Atlanta Braves had under gone a season ending injury early last season and is not expected to pitch until June 2009.

The agreement between the Sox’ and Smoltz according to MLB.com may be worth $5.5MM and could possibly reach over $10 million with incentives depending on his performance. An official announcement is expected to be made very shortly.

In the wake of the John Smoltz situation, the Atlanta Braves apparently scheduled a meeting with free agent Derek Lowe and are showing significant interest. According to Tony Massarotti of Boston.com, Lowe is scheduled to have a meeting with the Braves later today in Atlanta.

Rumor also has it that Rocco Baldelli is also closer to becoming part of the Red Sox organization. According to the Boston Globe once again, “Rocco Baldelli is scheduled to be at Thursday night’s Boston Baseball Writers dinner at the Westin Waterfront Hotel to accept the Tony Conigliaro Award.”

I am sure Baldelli will have more than just food on his mind while the media is anxious to hear a statement. Fox Sports and Ken Rosenthal have also agreed stating that “Rocco Baldelli is going home to New England“.

If a deal is made between the Red Sox and Baldelli, he may be sharing the field with Jason Bay, Jacoby Ellsbury and J.D. Drew.

More Developments to follow……

Yet, given the amount of talent available the market has developed slower than Andruw Jones’ bat this season. We all have Scott Boras to thank for that. He likes to hoard his players until the last minute while he tries everything to create a circus and a buzz around his players. And unfortunately he represents the majority of the biggest names in baseball.

Another thing that has slowed the market is the economic uncertainty that owners are facing. No one is sure what the impact will be on their respective markets. If you ask Scott Boras baseball is recession proof. Nevertheless teams are treading very carefully, especially those in smaller markets that rely more on ticket sales.

But I need to also mention that we need to not only look at this year’s free agent crop when analyzing the market. We need to consider who will be on the market in the coming years. Fred Claire does a great job of analyzing the free agent market in the coming years. Read it if you have the time but the jist of it is that the market, in terms of the amount of talent that will be available, will be much thinner in the years to come. And that tells us that now is the time to buy, especially considering that contracts are going to be smaller this year because of the amount of talent out there and because of the economic uncertainty.

That being said, here are the top 10 free agents left in this year’s market:

MANNY RAMIREZ, OF/DH

Not much needs to be mentioned here as Manny Ramirez is one of the greatest right handed hitters of all time. He recently hit .396 with 17 homers and 53 RBIs in 53 games for Dodgers and pretty much carried them into the playoffs, while making everyone on the team better around him. Sure he has a checkered past and has proven to be quite juvenile. But it is apparent that all he wants to be respected for his talents and acknowledged. He has a ton of money and I do not believe that is all that motivates him. And Harold Reynolds of ESPN and MLB Network notes that what Manny has done in the past is nowhere close to as criminal as what so many other players have done on and off the field! Manny just attracts attention because of his electric personality and bat.

DEREK LOWE, SP

If you are looking for pitching, and most teams are, then Derek Lowe is your safest option left because if his consistency. He averages more than 15 wins a season, throws a heavy sinker that keeps the ball on the ground, has a stellar record of not being injured, and has proven to be a great big game pitcher. The Mets are the front runners to sign him but I don’t think that the three-year, $36 million offer will get it done unless Lowe is really motivated to pitch in NY this season.

BOBBY ABREU, OF/DH

Abreu is consistent and his cautious approach keeps him healthy. He is in very good company, joining Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols, as having reached at least 100 RBI in the past six seasons. His defense is average, and is better than Manny’s and Dunn’s but that isn’t saying much. He is patient at the plate and uses the whole field. He would set a great example for other young hitters on any team he lands with. He will probably be the best bargain of this year’s free agent class as he is highly underrated.

ADAM DUNN, OF/DH

Adam Dunn is a great power hitting left handed run producer. But he is a below average fielder that has proven to be cranky player when he doesn’t get his way. Dunn does not run well, Manny might be able to beat him to first, and he strikes out more than almost anyone else. However his patience at the plate gives him a good OBP and his all or nothing approach gives you about 40 home runs and 100 RBI each season. Given his lack defensive liability and power stoke he may be well suited for the American League, possibly the Angels, which is why I list him as a possible DH. It has been reported that the Nationals and Jim Bowden may make a run at Dunn but the Dodgers have also listed him as a fall back option if they do not land Manny.

BEN SHEETS, SP

Big Ben is a great pitcher with electric stuff….. when he is healthy that is. He has a better career than A.J. Burnett but also has an injury plagued history that is keeping teams away. He is definitely not getting the respect he deserves which makes him a possible bargain and candidate for a short-term incentive laden contract. If he stays healthy he can be one of the top pitchers in the league. Unfortunately that is too big of an “if” for most teams it seems.

PAT BURRELL, OF/DH

Pat Burrell has all the shortcomings of Dunn. Poor defensive skills, no speed, and strikes out at a dizzying rate. But he is also good for 30+ home runs and 100 RBI a season. His declining defense and lack of speed also make him well suited for move to the American League. I am totally amazed that there are not more teams going after his power bat. Maybe it is because of the fact that he has not been able to put together a complete season, often playing poorly in either the first or second half of each season. He tends to not be consistent and that maybe his main drawback. I still feel that Burrell is in the same group with Sheets and Abreu as one of the more underrated free agents of this year’s market.

MILTON BRADLEY, OF/DH

Bradley is coming off of a stellar season in which he lead the entire AL in both on-base percentage (.436) and OPS (.999). Another plus is that he is a switch hitter that hits for power and average. The reason that I list him so low is that he has bad knees that limit him to probably 130-135 games in the field. It is said that he could still go to the National League and the Nationals are said to have him at the top of their list, as well as the Cubs.

JON GARLAND, SP

Jon Garland is coming off of a weak 2008, which is never good for a free agent, despite a respectable 14 wins which can be counted on from him. He rarely strikes anyone out and is said to be one of those guys that pitches to contact, so he needs a solid defense behind him. His career is not that dissimilar to that of Burnett or Lowe but again his 2008 was not super, with an ERA of 4.90 and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1.53. Garland would be a much better fit for the NL where there is no DH and has been rumored to be sought after by the Cardinals and their pitching maestro Dave Duncan.

OLIVER PEREZ, SP

Perez is solid lefty, posting 25 wins over the past two seasons with the Mets. He has proven to be pretty durable by pitching over 170 innings in the past two years. He is a strikeout pitcher, averaging 150+ over the past three seasons but is also hittable with an average of 150 hits per season during that same span of time. So he is not spectacular but can be solid. Unfortunately Boras is his agent and is of course asking for way too much, 5 years and $70 million. I doubt that he’ll get that in today’s market. The Mets would like him back but need to first see if they can land Lowe before they will make him an offer.

ORLANDO CABRERA, SS

I am going to round out my list with an infielder, not just to round out the top 10 but because he deserves it. Cabrera is much better, right now, than Renteria. And Renteria surprisingly signed an $18.5 million deal. Cabrera is a masterful fielder, earning this year’s Defensive Player of the year from MLB.com/TWIB and just missed the Gold Glove award in the AL. Along with his glove, Cabrera also brings his bat with him to the ball park. He hit a respectable .281, can score around 100 runs per season, will swipe some bags and makes for a great lead-off man. Unfortunately the market was full of good SS this year so he has lost some value. But some team somewhere will end up with a great lead-off man/SS at a great value.
Honorable mentions: Jason Giambi, Orlando Hudson, Joe Crede, Andy Pettitte, Garret Anderson, Randy Wolf, and Freddy Garcia.