Romero Comes Through Big Time

Early season hero: Buy or sell?

As an avid fantasy baseball player, the first few days of the major league baseball season have been as much about getting an idea of what I can expect from my beloved Braves as it is about learning who the breakout fantasy players will be in 2009.

As always, there were a bunch of players who came flying out of nowhere and are now on everyone’s watch list. Should you jump the gun and snag one of these small sample size heroes or settle for a more reliable option? This column should prove you with some guidance.

First up is Marlins third baseman Emilio Bonifacio. Ranked first in most formats, Bonifacio has stormed out of the games this season. He is playing third base for Florida, but probably has second base eligibility in your league. So far he has put up a .600 average, four runs, four RBIs, a homer, and three steals. He is leading off in front of the likes of Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, and Jorge Cantu.

Obviously, Bonifacio won’t hit .600, but will he be good enough to keep on your roster all season? The answer is “possibly”. I say possibly, because, well, the man has no resume of success in the major leagues. However, he has had some success at the minor league level, which leads me to believe he could succeed at the top of the Marlins order.

While he was with Arizona, Bonifacio broke out at the age of 21 back in 2006 while playing advanced-A ball. In 608 plate appearances that season, he stole 61 bases, scored 117 runs, and hit .321. It’s clear that he can get on base (.375 that season) and contribute a ton of steals, but that will always come at the price of absolutely no power. In that 2006 season, he hit just 7 homers and drove in only 50.

Bonifacio was not as impressive in double-A in 2007, hitting .285 with a huge dip in steals (20) and OPS (from .824 to .685). In 2008, he was traded to the Nationals and was impressive in triple-a, again hitting over the .300 mark (.397 OBP), while stealing 21 bases and scoring a ton of runs.

Last season in the major leagues, Bonifacio had 186 plate appearances, hitting .243 with 7 steals in 11 tries. He struck out 46 times and walked 14 times for an on base percentage of only .296.

So what does all that mean to you? It means that if you need help in the speed department, Bonifacio is a guy who you may want to target. The odds are pretty good that he has already been picked up in your league, so I don’t recommend overpaying for him in a trade. If he is still available and you need help at second base, he is worth a shot. I don’t recommend plugging him in at third base unless you’re desperate. Third base is often a position where you need to get some power numbers. Bonifacio is not going to do that for you.
If he sticks at the top of the Marlins order, there is a good chance he will score a ton of runs and steal more than 40 bases. A batting average approaching .290 is also possible. Just know that you’ll be lucky to get seven homers and more than 50 RBIs.

The Saving Grace for This Year’s Unsigned Free Agents

The winter long contract dances that have been going on are enough to make your head spin. The Manny Ramirez situation, Orlando Cabrera, Orlando Hudson, Juan Cruz, and more are Type A players. This means that any team that signs them, other than their current team, has to give up a first-round pick as compensation.

The prospect of having to give up a first-round draft pick has been enough to turn many clubs off. Even now that the market has depressed and players can be had at bargain rates, teams are reluctant to sign type A players. Just look at Orlando Hudson and the Dodgers and you have to believe that the only reason the Dodgers have not jumped at signing him is because of the draft pick. The Dodgers would get a steal of a deal and on a short 1 year contract which is exactly what they want!

So how do we get around this?

There is a thing called a “sign and trade” deal that the NBA has been using to maneuver rosters while getting around the NBA’s Salary cap rules. Major League Baseball should take some cues from the NBA on this one. How it works is that a player’s 2008 team resigns him, then they trade him in a prearranged deal to a team wants to sign him but that does not want to give up the draft pick.

Of course the new team will still need to give something up in return. But the idea is that they can give up a minors player rather than a first-round pick, which could be potentially a big deal. They can give up a pick in the later in the draft, prospects, or maybe even cash but whatever it is it will have to be close to the prospective picks.

Players will need to sign a waiver before resigning with their team in advance of any deals made. The commissioner’s office has confirmed that they would support this in hopes that it helps the remaining free agents to find a team. This sort of thing is unprecedented in MLB history but these are tough times that we are in economically and they require drastic measures.

So we will see if the Dodgers and Ned Colletti can pull of some magic and work a deal for Hudson. Or if the Oakland A’s can pull something off for Cabrera. This will be a very interesting year for baseball to say the least.

Clay’s Choice: Paul Maholm

For the next few weeks, I’m going to try and bang out as many articles like this as I can. Basically, I’m just going to pick out a player I like and talk about their potential contributions to the 2009 season. As an avid fantasy baseball manager, most of these guys were players I developed a man crush on last year and are players I’m likely to target in drafts this season. That does not necessarily mean that all of my analysis will have to do with fantasy baseball, but it is certain to be at least part of the discussion.

Up next on my list is left-handed pitcher Paul Maholm and, before you say anything, yes, I know that he pitches for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Despite the fact that any starting pitcher on the Pirates will have trouble earning himself a marker in the win column, Maholm does a lot of things well and is the team’s unquestionable ace.

Maholm, which, by the way, is pronounced “Mah-HALL-uhm”, will enter the 2009 season at the age of 26, which indicates that he should be about at his prime. The southpaw played college ball at Mississippi State before signing with the Pirates, who drafted him 8th overall in the 2005 major league baseball draft.

Generally, pitchers drafted early and right out of college fly through the minors. Maholm was no exception. His professional baseball career started at the low-A level in 2003, where he put up a 1.85 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 8 starts. In 34 innings of work, he struck out 32 and walked 10.

The following year, Maholm made one appearance for the Pirates’ rookie ball team, 3 starts for its Single-A squad, and 8 starts for its advanced-A team. Despite struggling to a 0-2 record with a 9.75 ERA and 2.25 WHIP at Single-A, Maholm was stellar in advanced-A, notching a 1.84 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 44 innings.

That success earned him the opportunity to show off his goods at the double-A level in the 2005 season. He did not disappoint, going 6-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in just under 82 innings. He was later promoted to Triple-A, where he went 1-1 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in just under 36 innings. That was more than enough for Pirates management, who finally gave Maholm his cup of tea on August 30, 2005. He made 6 starts in the late stages of 2005, going 3-1 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. His 3.84 FIP, 85.1 LOB% and .243 BABIP were extremely lucky in those 6 starts, but it was enough to earn Maholm a permanent job in the rotation.

Maholm would make 30 starts for the Pirates in 2006, which would give us a long first look at what Maholm could do at the major league level. He went 8-10 that year with a 4.76 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. Before you officially write off Maholm, note that his LOB% dropped to 73.4% and his BABIP was the highest of his career at .325. His 4.81 FIP actually justified the ERA, so Maholm headed into 2006 needing to show improvement.

He did just that. Maholm made 29 starts in his second full season, going 10-15 for the lowly Pirates. His ERA actually increased to 5.02 and his strikeout rate was down slightly, but he showed improvement in almost every other department. His walk rate dropped from 4.14 to 2.48, his WHIP dropped to 1.42, and his FIP dropped to 4.60.

All of that led up to the 2008 season, which would prove to be the year Maholm would put his name on the radar as a legit starting pitcher in the major leagues. While not putting up Cy Young statistics, Maholm was extremely solid and proved he was the real deal. He went 9-9 on a poor team and managed a career best 3.71 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. He pitched a career high 206.1 innings, striking out 139 and walking 63. His BABIP was back down to .289 and his LOB% was above his career average at 75.5%, but his 4.15 FIP proved that his improvement was legitimate.

In terms of value, Maholm increased his worth in each of his major league seasons. He was responsible for 1.4 wins in 2006, 1.7 wins in 2007, and 2.7 in 2008.

The popular projection systems don’t like Maholm quite as much in 2009, but his projected numbers rival what he put up last season. In terms of fantasy, it’s safe to say that Maholm should rival 10 wins in what should be another rough season for the Pirates. His strikeout rate should stay right around 6 per nine innings, his ERA is tough to estimate, but Marcel, Chone, and Bill James all have him in the 4.20-to-4.33 range. I expect his WHIP to be a little bit better than his career mark of 1.41.

Sources: www.wikipedia.org, www.baseball-reference.com, www.fangraphs.com

Complete list of reports:
2/15/09: Kevin Slowey
2/17/09: Scott Lewis

Clay’s Choice: Scott Lewis

For the next few weeks, I’m going to try and bang out as many articles like this as I can. Basically, I’m just going to pick out a player I like and talk about their potential contributions to the 2009 season. As an avid fantasy baseball manager, most of these guys were players I developed a man crush on last year and are players I’m likely to target in drafts this season. That does not necessarily mean that all of my analysis will have to do with fantasy baseball, but it is certain to be at least part of the discussion.

Today I’m going to focus on a lesser known player named Scott Lewis—a starting pitcher for the Cleveland Indians. Lewis, who will enter the upcoming major league season at the age of 25, was originally drafted by the Angels back in 2001, but did not sign, choosing instead to attend the Ohio State University. In 2004, finally ready to pitch professionally, Lewis signed with the Indians, who drafted him the third round. The lefty heads into Spring Training as part of a long list of candidates for the Tribe’s fifth spot in the rotation.

Following his stint with the Buckeyes, Lewis spent over four years working his way through the Indians farm system before finally getting called up the big show last September. Lewis was more than impressive in his 4 major league starts, managing a perfect 4-0 record to go with a 2.63 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. The southpaw struck out 15 and walked 6 in 24 innings of work.

Although his early success at the major league level is grounds for some hype, his success at the minor league level is really what jumps out at me. In 80 minor league appearances, which included 76 starts, Lewis managed a 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He struck out 359 and walked 82 in just under 367 innings. His minor league numbers rival those of Kevin Slowey, who we discussed in this feature last time as being one of the game’s top young pitchers. Add to the equation that Lewis is a lefty and there is little question that he should be able to find a role at the major league level.

The main concerns with Lewis are his tendency to give up a lot of fly balls and his mid-to-high 80s fastball. That could spell trouble for Lewis in the tough American League. Furthermore, during his 4 major league starts, his BABIP was .233 and his LOB% was 83.3%. Both indicate that he was extremely lucky and neither of them are likely to repeat themselves in 2009.

Lewis also sports a solid changeup, slider, and curveball, so if he can hit his spots consistently, he certainly can have a successful major league career. To this point, it’s hard to doubt the man. He proved himself at the division-I collegiate level, was outstanding at every minor league level, and, most recently, put up excellent major league numbers in 4 starts. Lewis has a full resume of success. If he gets the opportunity to start in 2009, it will be up to him to prove he is the real deal.

In terms of fantasy baseball, Lewis remains a toss up at this point in time. If he wins that fifth rotation spot, he will be a solid sleeper. If not, he is useless and should be avoided in most leagues for the near future. What will you get from him if he earns a starting job? I expect the Indians to contend for the AL Central crown, so a healthy dose of wins should be in order. I don’t expect him to put up the dominant ERA and WHIP he did in his 4 starts last year, but if he isn’t terribly unlucky, I’d expect an average ERA and slightly better than average WHIP. As for strikeouts, he should be able to manage, on average, 4 or 5 in a 7 inning start, which is solid in that category.

Sources: www.baseball-reference.com, www.fangraphs.com

Clay’s Choice: Kevin Slowey

For the next few weeks, I’m going to try and bang out as many articles like this as I can. Basically, I’m just going to pick out a player I like and talk about their potential contributions to the 2009 season. As an avid fantasy baseball manager, most of these guys were players I developed a man crush on last year and are players I’m likely to target in drafts this season. That does not necessarily mean that all of my analysis will have to do with fantasy baseball, but it is certain to be at least part of the discussion.

First on my list is Twins starting pitcher Kevin Slowey. The 24 year old righty made his major league debut in 2007 and completed his first full season in the big leagues last year. In 2009, he will again be a part of an outstanding young Twins rotation that also includes Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker (who could be featured here in the future), Nick Blackburn, and Glen Perkins.

Slowey was absolutely disgusting in the minor leagues, sporting a career ERA of 1.94 and career WHIP of 0.85.

He made his minor league debut at the age of 21 back in 2005. Combining his time spent playing rookie and single-A ball that year, he went 3-2 in 17 appearances (9 starts), had a 2.12 ERA, a 0.72 WHIP, and struck out 84 in 72 innings.

As if that wasn’t enough to get some people’s attention, it only got better from there.

In 2006, Slowey began the year at the advanced-A level, striking out 99 in 89 innings to go with a ridiculous 1.01 ERA and 0.69 WHIP. That prompted a promotion to double-A, where he made 9 starts. In 59 innings of work, he struck out 52, posted a 3.20 ERA and put up a 1.07 WHIP.
Slowey was then promoted to triple-A for the 2007 campaign, which would be his final challenge in the minor leagues. He passed the test with flying colors, posting a 10-5 record, 1.89 ERA, and 0.96 WHIP in 20 starts. In just under 134 innings, he struck out 107 opposing hitters.

His dominance of the minor leagues led to his promotion to the majors in June of 2007, where he made 11 starts throughout the season. His 4.73 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in that span was pretty high for what he was used to in the minors, but he managed a 4-1 record and proved he was ready for a full time spot in the rotation in 2008.

Slowey managed just one start early last season before an injury forced him to the disabled list. A month later, he was back in the rotation and was good to go for the rest of the season. He did not disappoint and proved to be one of the league’s young pitchers, often drawing comparisons to former Twins’ ace Brad Radke. He went 12-11 for the Twins, who were in contention for the AL Central division title throughout the season. Slowey put up a 3.99 ERA, impressive 1.15 WHIP, and struck out 123 opposing hitters in just over 160 innings of work.

Slowey enters the 2009 season with a solid hold on a rotation spot for the Twins, who are projected by most to finish with a record right around the .500 mark. His ability to keep opposing hitters off the basepaths has proven to translate into a successful career to this point and, at the age of just 24 years old, there is plenty reason to believe he will continue to improve.

In terms of fantasy baseball, Slowey is an absolute monster in any league that uses the WHIP category. His ERA should improve on the 3.99 he put up last year and, although he won’t put up top notch strikeout numbers, a repeat of his 6.90 K/9 from last season would still be a solid contribution to your team. The Twins, as mentioned, are expected to hang around the .500 mark again this season, but have a ton of young talent and could be a surprise 90-win team. That being said, Slowey could easily be a 15 win pitcher, which would make him an outstanding addition to your fantasy baseball rotation.

Sources: www.mlb.com, www.baseball-reference.com

Supreme Court Rejects MLB Fantasy Licensing Fees

One thing is for sure, MLB players make a lot of money! Unfortunatley, they present a valid point when it comes to Fantasy Baseball Companies using their names to generate a profit. However, the Supreme Court did not agree.

The U.S. Supreme Court rejected an appeal from Major League Baseball and its players association, leaving intact a ruling that lets a fantasy-sports company use players’ names and statistics without paying licensing fees.

According to the AP-Without comment, the justices declined to hear the case involving a segment of the $1.5 billion fantasy sports industry in the United States, in which participants manage imaginary teams based on the real-life performances of professional players.

The lawsuit involves C.B.C. Distribution and Marketing Inc., a Missouri company unable to obtain a license from a subsidiary of Major League Baseball to use players’ names in C.B.C.’s fantasy baseball games.

The Missouri company sued, saying it did not need a license to continue to sell its fantasy baseball games on its Web site.

Fantasy sport leagues now generate roughly $500 million a year worldwide in fees, advertising and other revenue, according to Jeff Thomas, president of the 150-member Fantasy Sports Trade Association.

Should athletes be entitled to a monetary cut of revenue in return for their names and talent being used to make a third party profit? What do you think? RBI says no!