Key Subtractions: Khalil Greene, Trevor Hoffman

A Look at the Line Up:

C – Nick Hundley is only 25 years old and had trouble adjusting to major league pitching during last season’s call up. He hit .237 in 198 at bats but has shown some pop in the minor, cranking 20 jacks in AA in 2007. He will be a fun young catcher to watch this season as he could breakout. He will get all the chances in the world to prove himself on this team.

1B – Adrian Gonzalez is THE best player the Padres have and one of the premiere first basemen in the league. He’s coming off of a great World Baseball Classic where he led the Mexico team with his ability to hit for power, average, and play great defense. He will do the same for the Padres this year. Adrian will be the one bright star to gaze upon in what looks to be a rough season for this team.

2B – David Eckstein was acquired this off season and will bring the veteran presence this team needs as well as consistent at bats and fielding. Edgar Gonzalez, Adrian’s older brother will back him up and could challenge Eckstein for at bats if allowed the chance this year. Eckstein will likely bat second behind Giles and in front of Adrian Gonzalez, which means that he will see a lot of good pitches this year!

SS – Luis Rodriguez looks to anchor the SS position with Greene gone. Rodriguez will form a good double play tandem with Eckstein as the Padres look to be very sound defensively in the middle infield.  He hit .287 filling in for Greene last season but doesn’t steal much or hit for power so he will be a contact hitter and nothing else.

3B — Kevin Kouzmanoff will once again field the hot corner for the Padres. Kouz could break out this year as well. He improved last season and has huge potential. Unfortunately he is on a bad team. But I can’t think of a better situation than to bat cleanup behind Adrian Gonzalez which is why I consider him for a potential breakout season.

RF – Brian Giles is getting up there in age and I am not sure if he should still be leading off for the Padres, but he will. Giles hits for average still, around .300 and will knock 10-15 home runs. He will also play a steady RF but I would not expect him to steal many bags this year, again, he is aging.

CF – Jody Gerut was a rookie sensation with Cleveland in 2003 and then faded into obscutity after being traded twice in 2005. He did not play any baseball, not even in the minors, in 2006 and 2007. Well the Padres were in need last season and gave him a shot. He delivered superbly hitting .296 with 14 homers in 328 games. He’s only 31 and that’s not too old and will likely bat 5th behind Kouz.

LF – Chase Headley is the man to watch this season. The 24 year old, with a .301 average in the minors, played well in a call up last season, batting .269 with 9 home runs in 91 games. He is definitely the biggest sleeper and breakout candidate as this kid has a lot of talent. He projects to be a .300/20 HR buy and could achieve that this year.
A look at the pitching:

SP – Look no further than staff ace Jake Peavy. He is virtually unhittable at home boasting a 1.74 ERA but only going 5-5 because of a poor supporting cast. Peavy has been discussed as trade bait as the Padres look to cut payroll following a nasty divorce hearing involving the owner and the pending sale of the club. They figure finish last or finish last minus the $11 million Peavy will earn this year. Scouts are saying he looks as sharp as ever this spring after a terrible World Baseball Classic.

Chris Young looks to rebound from an injury plaged 2008 which saw him take a Pujols line drive off the face fracturing the nose and skull and some forearm tightness. He is topping out in the mid 80s this spring and that will not cut it for him, he needs to be  in the low 90s. He has had a poor spring with some tendinitis to boot so I do not expect Young to do well this year.

The rest of the staff is full of has beens and never will bes. Shawn Hill came over after being released by another club and may contend for the 5th starter position and 32 year old rookie Walter Silva looks like a great pickup from the Mexican league.

Outlook:
Not good. The team is predicted to finish last by everyone, and I mean everyone. The organization is in transition of ownership and they are trying to move their all world pitcher Jake Peavy because of his salary. It’s a poor situation for players like Peavy and Gonzalez but there is a lot of opportunity for many of the organization’s young prospects to breakout and get major league experience. But alas, they will finish last. Hey, at least they have a great ball park!

Prediction:
Headley will breakout, Peavy will get traded for some great prospects, Gerut will have a great season and Young will falter. 59-103 will give them the worst record in the NL this season.

Key Subtractions: LF Pat Burrell, OF So Taguchi, RP Tom Gordon, SP Adam Eaton, RP Les Walrond

A look at the lineup:

Catcher: Carlos Ruiz struggled with the bat from day one in 2008, but if his past is any indicator, the guy can still hit.  He may never figure it out on this level, but Ruiz hit over .300 in triple-A just a few years ago, so the potential is there.  The question is: can he take a step forward, because last year he went in the wrong direction.  Chris Coste is the backup, and he can hit for some power, but he’ll be on bench duty all year.

First Base: Ryan Howard is a beast and everyone knows it.  The only problem is, can he cut out the long swoons and be on more of an even keel for an entire year? If he were to do that, his numbers would be astronomical.  However, Howard has not proven to be that sort of guy, so we’ll have to go with what we know.  And that’s power, strikeouts, and a few giant months tossed in.

Second Base: We didn’t realize it at the time, but Chase Utley’s hip injury was serious.  His power stroke struggled by mid-season and after demolishing pitching in the first half (25 homers) he finished with a limp.  Utley has deemed himself prepared for opening day in ’09, and that bodes well.  Expect a slow start as he kicks the cobwebs, but as the best second baseman in baseball, expect greatness for a whole year.

Shortstop: Jimmy Rollins was an MVP.  Then he wasn’t.  The 2008 season was much different for him after an ankle injury killed him in the beginning of the year.  However, Rollins is healthy and showed he’s ready after a spectacular World Baseball Classic.  Look for steals and hopefully for the power we once saw.  Plus, he’s awesome in the field, which is just as vital to the success of the Philies.

Third Base: It was a long year for Pedro Feliz, as a bad back derailed him early, and he never really got going. After four straight seasons of 20-plus homers in San Francisco, Feliz dropped a dud, smacking just 14 on the year.  His back is fixed, but is his bat?  Greg Dobbs and Eric Bruntlett did a fine job in his absence, but I would rather see Feliz for a whole year.

Left Field: Goodbye Pat Burrell, hello Raul Ibanez.  The former Mariner outfielder is a model of consistency, something Pat the Bat clearly was not.  Will it translate to the NL?  Ibanez is aging, but gracefully.  And he should have plenty of opportunities to knock in runs with this offense.

Center Field: Shane Victorino was marvelous in centerfield, playing stellar D and posting career highs in every offensive category.  He too was included in the WBC and now finds himself among the elite outfielders in entire game.  My they grow up quickly.

Right Field: Another blossoming outfielder is Jayson Werth.  He gave the Phillies fans a new cult hero to love after slamming 24 homers in just over 400 at-bats.  The potential is there for something special, but he needs to cut down on the K’s.

A look at the pitching:

Starters: Cole Hamels is the man.  Hollywood, as they call him in the clubhouse, won several postseason awards and made himself a household name.  The one problem with Hamels is his elbow, which has bothered him throughout the spring, but he should be ready for the first week.  The Phillies are hoping he can stay healthy again for a full year after pitching over 250 innings in 2008, by far the most he’s ever been on the mound.  Hamels did not get much run support last season, so if he can this year, it could mean 18 wins.

With the middle three spots of the rotation, you basically know exactly what you’ll get. Brett Myers will once again be the opening day starter (only by default) and will once again start the season as the biggest mystery.  He has all the potential in the world, but have we seen the best from him already?  Every year we wonder when Myers will win 16 or more games, and it has yet to happen.  Will this be the year? If the past is any factor, he will once again toy with the fans and give us around 13 wins.

Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton are also back in the middle of the solid rotation.  Moyer continues to defy the odds, but how much more is left in the tank?  He has had a so-so spring, so the talks of aging will be there all year, good or bad.  Blanton was terrific last season, and was a huge part of why the Phillies now have a second World Series title.  Joe the Pitcher will not wow you with his stuff, but he has a steady hand.  Expect about 13 wins and an ERA in the 4’s, but you can’t get much better as a number three or four.

Chan Ho Park is the wild card here.  He is the new fifth starter, and if his spring performance is an indicator of things to come, the Phils could have a steal.  Park beat out J.A. Happ for the final position and while his past is not pretty, it’s all about looking ahead.  His stuff is on point with a blazing fastball and beautiful off-speed pitches thrown in.  The Phillies just hope he can last a whole year, after last seasons debacle with Kyle Kendrick and Adam Eaton.  If not, Happ waits in the wings.

Bullpen: One of the best bullpens in baseball in 2008, the team will be hard pressed to provide a repeat performance this season. Brad Lidge did not blow a save and finished 4th in the Cy Young voting.  Ryan Madson was a new man in the set-up role he shared with lefty J.C. Romero.  Romero will be missing for 50 games after being suspended for using performance-enhancing drugs.

Scott Eyre, Clay Condrey, and Chad Durbin are all back and although they each had very good 2008 seasons, it’s going to be hard to get much more out of them.  As of this writing, we still await word as to who will join this crew.  J.A. Happ, Gary Majewski, and Jack Taschner are vying for two spots.  Happ would be used for long-relief, so there is a very good chance he stays.  Majewski and Taschner are a toss up at this point, with Majewski having been in camp longer.  Look for him to have the slight edge.

Prediction: It’s hard to go against a team that won it all the previous season.  So I won’t do that now.  They have basically the same team once again, so why can’t they win the NL East?  The Phillies and Mets will lock horns for 162 more games, but as of now the Phillies look to have the superior talent.  Look for 90 wins and another postseason invitation.

A Look at the Line Up:
Last October, when all the dust had settled, the St. Louis Cardinals finished with a record of 86 – 76, chiefly due to the strength of their surprise offence.

The Cards got surprising production from Right Fielder Ryan Ludwick and newly acquired Third Basemen Troy Glaus who played a shocking 151 games at the hot corner, his second highest total since 2002.

The Cardinals managed to rack up the fourth most runs in the National League behind an attack lead by the heart of the order.

Albert Pujols has established himself as a MVP candidate year in and year out. He got some help last year when pitchers had to worry about the combined 91 home runs belted out by Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankeiland Troy Glaus. Throw in Pujols and his 37 dingers and those four men accounted for 73% of the Redbirds home runs last season.

Catcher:
Behind the plate, we have one of the many talented Molina brothers. Yadier is only going to be 26 in 2009, but finally looked like it was coming together for him as an everyday major leaguer in 2008.

He posted career highs in most offensive categories including hits, average, OBP, runs scored, RBI’s and Slugging. Although his strikeout and walk numbers remained similar to years past, he did see a career high in at bats and subsequently his largest career hit total as well.

On the defensive side of the ball his range factor rated 19th out of the 20 catchers that started more than 100 games in 2008. That being said, his range factor was holding fairly steady at 6.49 compared to his career mark of 6.86.
He also posted a career worst in caught stealing percentage. He allowed 34 stolen bases on 52 attempts. That being said, his 34.6% was good enough tie his brother Bengie for fifth among everyday catchers.

Also, 52 was the second lowest number of attempts against and everyday catcher showing that players are still leery of an arm that threw out almost half (47.8%) of would be base stealer over his career.
All this, and he is only 26.

First Base:
What do you even say?
Albert Pujols is having his numbers measured against the all time greats; and why not? He has just collected another MVP award, and amongst active players he is in the top three in average, OBP, Slugging Percentage, and OPS.
After 8 years in the big leagues, he’s 98th all time in home runs, ninth in homeruns per at bat, 23rd in batting average, 13thin OBP, 4th in slugging and 5th in career OPS.

Oh yeah, and in 2006 he threw in a gold glove just to prove he could pick it. I’d write more, but you know score on Albert, Prince. More like King!

Second Base:
Jared Schumaker…Sorry Skip I just had to.
Schumaker showed great promise for the Cardinals last season making starts at all three outfield positions. But with the release of Adam Kennedy, it looks like the Cardinals have Schumaker penciled in to be one half of their everyday double play combination.

The Cardinals have every intention of this being a full time transition for the accomplished outfielder who became the table setter for the Cardinals in 2008. When Adam Kennedy was released, this idea seemed crazy, but as of March 26th the St. Louis Dispatch reports general manager John Mozeliakhas confirmed that the job belongs to Schumaker.
Defensively, what does that mean? We’ll soon find out.

Offensively, Schumaker gives the Cardinals something dynamic at the second sack. He’s a little light on power, but in the lead off spot if he can repeat his line from 2008 (.302/.359/.406), or even his career numbers that include limited at bats in 2006 and 2007, he should prove the same kind of spark as a year ago when the Cardinals produced 779 runs, good for 4thin the NL, and 10th in the Majors.

Shortstop:
The Cardinals biggest move of the off-season was getting former first round pick Khalil Greene from the San Diego Padres. Greene will be asked to replace the defensive stability left behind by Cesar Izturis.
Greene is an interesting case of how a player’s overall numbers seem to disguise what kind of player he really is. In the last three years, Greene’s home vs. away splits are staggering.

Keep in mind both of these data sets come from a similar number of at bats, 696 at home vs. 719 on the road.
Overall numbers 2006 – 2008 .240/.291/.421
Home numbers   2006 – 2008: .214/.275/.378
Road numbers     2006 – 2008: .265/.307/.462
His road performance also outdid his home numbers in hits, doubles, homeruns, and runs batted in. He also struck out 29 times less.

Greene could be a much more effective player for the Cardinals in 2009 than many would anticipate. Although I do wonder how that double play combination is going to come together with Greene, who posted a 4.19 RF in 2008, and a converted outfield that has never fielded the position before.

Third Base:
2008 was the first season in the last couple the Cardinals saw some stability at third.
Troy Glaus had an outstanding year, playing in 151 games, posting 27 HR, and 99 RBI’s. Along with Pujols, Ankeil and Ludwick, he gave the Cardinals substantial pop in their line-up. He also managed to raise his batting average and OBP 15 and 13 points respectively over his career average.

This all looked very promising, until this spring when Glaus ceased all baseball activities and was placed on the 15 day disabled list. Although, even with his injury, Glaus may be capable of the same type of production as last season.
The Cardinals are going to take this opportunity to audition David Freese. He looks to be the heir apparent to the third place job.

It is never sure how a players numbers are going to translate out of Triple A, but last year looking at his Minor League Equivalency Calculation (http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/mlecalc.html) that take into account league and park factors, Freese projects into a fairly nice major leaguer. In a full season we’d be look at 464 at bats, 20 home runs and a line of .268/.310/.457 in his first year in ‘The Show’, based on his Triple A production.
Glaus is expected back in late April. With Freese, the Cardinals may not miss a beat.

Left Field:
Only 6 days until opening day, and this position still seems to be a coin flip.
Colby Rasmus? He could be the starter.

Chris Duncan sounds like he has the inside track on the job though. Both have been hitting the ball well, and we may see a platoon situation between the former first basemen, and the center fielder of the future.

As of right now, my money is on Rasmus to be the everyday out fielder by the end of the season. Duncan has major league experience, but he has proven to be streaky at best. He had an April where he batted .288 with a .839 OPS in April.
That even includes a 10 day stretch at the end of the month that was part of a 63 game stretch where he batted .231 with his OPS at .645.
Rasmus only projects at .216/.292/.328, which may be a little deceiving, as he was injured in 2008. Rasmus is only 23 this year, and I think you’ll see him steal a certain number at bats over the year and work his way into the everyday line up.

Center Field:
Rick Ankeil, the former breakout Cardinals pitcher looks to have completed his conversion to big league outfielder.
Although at 29, it looks like the centerfield might have a little more pop than he has already displayed at 27 dingers in his first full season in the major league outfielders.

Ankeil has locked up the job and there is no discussion as to who will be the everyday centerfielder for the Red Birds this year. Depending on how much promise Rasmus works out, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ankeil go to right and Ludwick go to left by the end of 2009. That’s my bold prediction for the year.

Right Field:
Ryan Ludwickbroke out huge last year and blasted 37 Home runs. Although the Slugging percentage dropped slightly in the second half of the season, he raised both his batting average and OBP significantly.

Pre All-Star Break: .289/.365/.5597
Post All-Star Break: .313/.388/.583

Other than June and September he batted over .300 every month, and in September he hit .291.
Ludwick was also fourth in range factor, and tied for fourth in assists among right fielder among right fielders that played two thirds of their team’s games at the position.

Starting Pitchers:
This will probably be the surprise rotation of the summer, Wainright and Carpenter if healthy are a great one two punch, and Kyle Lohse has been pegged as many people’s sleeper pick for the year.

Adam Wainrightonly made 20 starts in 2008 with an index finger problem that kept him out for two months. That being said he improved in every statistical category over his coming out party in 2007.

Look for Wainright to be a legitimate CY Young candidate in 2009.

Chris Carpenter a pitcher that went from a pile of unfilled potential in Toronto, to CY Young award winner and World Series champion in St. Louis. Health has always been Carpenters issue. He’s only made 4 starts in the last two seasons. He won 51 games from 2004-2006.

He doesn’t look like he’ll ever reach that plateau again, but at the same time, in those three years he never had an ERA of over 3.46 since going to the national league.

Kyle Lohse looks to be another product of Dave Duncan. One of a few pitching coaches with the ability to make a pitcher better. He was almost a full run better on his ERA at home last year pitched about up to his maximum potential in 2008.
I’m not sure he’s up to winning 15 games again, but with Duncan staying on top of thing, 15 might be in the cards, 13 seems very plausible as does the ability to eat up close to 200 innings in the process.

Joel Pinero is another Duncan product. The Cardinals are hoping he can be more productive than his 5.15 ERA from a year ago.
Wellenmeyer has spent most of his career in the pen, so there is no telling if his 191.2 innings will be a cause for a trip or two to the pen in 2009. If not he does have the stuff to repeat his 13-9 effort from a year ago.

Bullpen:
The Cards bullpen is much like its rotation: a ton of upside. Can they be any worse than the Pen that blew 31 leads in 2008? I would say probably not.

Outlook:
The line-up will sizzle all summer without question. Expect them to be in the top 5 in the National League in runs scored again.

With a “healthy” Carpenter and Wainright I think the starting pitching steps up and surprises in 2009. If the bullpen blows half the games it blew last year, that’s another 15 wins.

That would equal 101 wins! I don’t see that happening exactly, but I could certainly see a Cardinals team that improves a lot in 2009.

I see the Cardinals at 10 wins better with a stable pen, 95-67. Firmly believe that they lose the division by a sliver to the Cubs.

Key Subtractions: Daniel Cabrera, Garrett Olson, Kevin Millar, Ramon Hernandez

A Look at the Lineup:

What a difference a year makes. I don’t think anyone is expecting the O’s to contend for the American League East title. That being said, they couldn’t be any worse than at this time in 2008. The lineup looks like it could be very dynamic at times this year even as it suffers through the growing pains of Adam Jones and Felix Pie.

The Orioles aren’t going to put a scare in the AL East quite yet. They look to be a developing team that might not be that far away. They looked at signing both A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira, but not getting locked into those huge contracts may be a blessing in disguise.

Catcher

The Baltimore catching situation is definitely on the upswing, unfortunately not this year. The Orioles went out in free agency and signed Gregg Zaun in mid-January. The Zaun-bies in Toronto were a little upset, but otherwise the move seemed to go unnoticed.

Zaun is a placeholder for the young Matt Wieters. There’s speculation on what will happen with Wieters in respect to potentially sending him back to Triple A and saving an arbitration year. It probably makes sense that the O’s will get a combined 600-650 at bats out of both catchers.

I suspect they’d love for Zaun to return to his 2006 form where he started 99 games and managed to bat .272/.363/.472. If that is the case, the 37-year-old may fill the gap needed to get to Wieters full-time. Even with the 22-year-old on the roster, it looks to be Zaun’s job out of camp.

Unfortunately for the Orioles, defense is built up the middle, and although Zaun is well liked by his pitchers, he only threw out 14 of 54 would-be base stealers a year ago. In the last three years he is 44 of 212 for 20.7 percent. Zaun’s pop is all but gone, and his recent performance is indicative of a 37-year-old catcher.

This will be interesting to see how quickly Baltimore looks to Wieters as an offensive upgrade or if they’ve written off the year and will save the year to keep Wieters one more year from being arbitration eligible. There is buzz that if Wieters can get enough Major League at-bats he could the 2009 AL Rookie of the Year.

First Base

Well, with Kevin Millar off to division rival Toronto for a Minor league deal, it looks like the O’s are going to start the season with Aubrey Huff at first base.

Now the real question is, which version of Huff is going show up? The Retro, sleek, 30-bomb racking 2003/2004 version that the Orioles took out of the garage for a spin last year? Or is Huff his 2007 self that managed only 15 home runs and .280/.337/.442? To be honest, we can probably see Huff around his 162-game average of .287/.344/.483 and 26 home runs.

He seems to be stable over at first base, posting a 1.000 fielding percentage and a range factor of 8.94 in 24 games, as Huff moves over to first to fill the void left by Kevin Millar’s departure and makes room at the DH spot for Luke Scott.

Second Base

This has been the most stable spot in the Baltimore lineup for the last four years, and it doesn’t look to be anything different for 2009. Brian Roberts has swiped 226 bases with a 79.8 percent success rate, and he was 40 for 50 last year, showing no signs of slowing down at the age of 31.

Roberts was close to 5.00 (4.98) with his Range factor last year, and that included turning 110 double plays while working with no fewer than six double play partners. Hopefully the stability of Cesar Izturis for an entire season will improve some of the already impressive numbers Roberts posted. He was second in assists by a second sacker in 2008.

Shortstop

In a city where the shortstop was the Media Guide Cover most years from 1983 to 2007, nobody is going to mistake Cesar Izturis for Cal Ripken Jr. or even Miguel Tejada for that matter. But leading MLB shortstops in range factor last year, Izturis is going to give the Birds something they lacked last year—an everyday shortstop to play with Brian Roberts.

The Orioles aren’t looking for Izturis to give them punch in the lineup. The stability of having a defender that is solid and on the cusp great should greatly improve the Orioles’ team defense and the confidence of the pitching staff.

Third Base

Melvin Mora has manned the hot corner for the O’s since 2000, and I don’t expect to see that change any time soon. He showed a slowing in 2006 and 2007, posting an OPS of under .759 in each season. Then in 2008 for the months of July and August he showed a bit of a renaissance, crushing 13 of his 23 dingers and driving in 58 of his season total 104 RBI.

At the age of 37, look for 2007 to be a more accurate projection of the type of season the veteran Venezuelan is likely to produce. Behind him at third is the Orioles’ versatile Ty Wigginton. I wouldn’t be surprise to see Ty get 40-plus starts at third this year considering Mora’s advanced age.

Left field

This is the first of the five-toolers in Baltimore’s outfield. The Orioles shipped pitcher Garrett Olson to the Cubs for Felix Pie. Pie never could crack the Cubs’ lineup, and with good reason—for all the hype about speed and a short swing, Pie managed a career line .224/.284/.331 in 130 games.

There are plenty of options to replace Pie should he struggle. Ryan Freel, the former Cincinnati Red, looks to be the guy that is going to push Pie for the job. Freel is a 33-year-old veteran who has proven to be a solid and reliable option in the outfield. Freel is very much an injury concern, but if he can get near his career 162-game averages in batting average (.272), OBP (.357), and stolen bases (42) that left field job may soon be his.

Center field

Adam Jones showed the kind of five-tool potential last year that had Baltimore fans more excited every time took the field. He managed to swipe of 10 of 13 bases last year and has shown no signs of regressing on that front in 2009.

Jones batted a respectable .270 last year but managed to show almost no patience at the plate, generating only 23 walks vs. 108 strikeouts. He needs to improve on last year’s .311 OBP to take his game to the next level.

In the field Jones was fifth in range factor behind Chris Gomez, Aaron Rowland, B.J. Upton, and Curtis Granderson. That is pretty good company to be in. Also Jones’ 37 extra base hits out of 61 and seven triples has given the Orioles every reason to think he could be something special

Right field

If Brian Roberts is going to be the fire starter for this O’s lineup, Nick Markakis will be Mr. Everything. A surefire All-Star, Markakis still has developing power and has shown massive strides in improving his patience at the plate. His strikeout numbers remained almost unchanged from 112 to 113 from 2007 to 2008. That being said, his walk numbers were up to 99 from 61.

His RBI numbers dropped, but that is a product of a terrible lineup around him. He should be able to continue to improve on his 20 home runs, 87 RBI, and .306/.406/.491. He also led all right fielders with 17 assists, a number that will obviously drop as his reputation grows. Also he was third in range factors at 2.26 for everyday right fielders.

DH

The O’s have managed to slide Aubrey Huff over to first base in an attempt to get Luke Scott more regular at bats. Last year Scott had career highs in home runs, runs, RBI, doubles, hits, extra base hits, games, and at-bats. At 30 years old, don’t expect any of these numbers to jump again. But Scott definitely has the power to repeat his 20 home run performance again this year.

A Look at the Pitching

The rotation is the definite weakness in Baltimore this year. The Orioles cut ties with make work project Daniel Cabrera. Jeremy Guthrie is the only holdover, and many people will say that you don’t know what you’re getting, but other than Koji Uehara from Japan, the Orioles didn’t do much. They were outbid in the A.J. Burnett sweepstakes and have a combination of “tons of talent” and “reliable and mediocre” in the mix.

Jeremy Guthrie is a pitcher that seems to be better than the numbers would indicate. His record was only 10-12, but his ERA was 3.64. The year previous he was 7-5 with a 3.70 ERA in 26 starts. He averages about 120 strikeouts and 50 walks over 183 innings in that time.

Nothing spectacular about Guthrie; he’s just a guy. On a team with a little more run support than he got last year, maybe he’s 12-10, but when I look around the majors I don’t exactly see him stacking up against the other aces in the league. His WHIP last year was 1.23, or the same as John Lackey, Jesse Litsch, Ted Lilly, and John Danks.

I would suspect getting matched up against CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, and James Shields in his own division could potentially lower that win total without the rest of his stats suffering.

The second spot in the Orioles rotation will be held down by little known Koji Uehara; the Orange Birds have a Japanese import in the rotation now. He has spent his last two years in Japan bouncing back and forth between the pen and the starting rotation. But at 34 years old he is making a late transition to the majors.

By all accounts he won’t blow anyone away with his stuff and will rely on low walks and ground balls to get his outs. I read the book, but really don’t have much to say exactly what kind of results he will produce.

Chris Waters’ career so far has been defined by a one-hit, eight-inning outing against the Angels in 2008. But the truth is this is a soft tossing lefty with a strikeout rate of 4.59 per nine in a division full of offensive firepower. Last year in 11 starts he had 33 strikeouts to 29 walks for a 1.14 K/BB ratio. Opponents batted .273 with a .351 OBP off Waters. There is no reason to think he’s any better than his 5.01 ERA and .375 winning percentage from a year ago.

Rich Hill is a former Cub and reclamation project. He only started five games last year and walked more batters (18) than he struck out (15). In 2007 he had career bests in wins, ERA, strikeouts, and K/9. Unfortunately Hill looks like the fourth best option in camp for the O’s and hasn’t taken the mound yet as he is still rehabbing his elbow from 2008.

Even if everything goes exactly to plan, Hill has never been better than 11-8, and his career ERA is 4.37. Also, he has only once ever pitched more than 100 innings in a season.

Radhames Liz has the kind of raw nasty stuff scouts get excited over. Unfortunately, when you get to The Show, you have to know where that raw nasty stuff is going. He was a strikeout machine in the minors last year, fanning 85 and walking only 32. That ratio plummeted to 57:51 in his 17 starts and 84 innings with the big club. His 6-6 record with an ERA over six is also pretty telling.

If you’re looking of a bright spot, he has a sub-3.50 ERA during both day games and on turf. Also his ERA was 4.27 lower at home. So if Oriole Park goes from real grass to turf, and they move all Radhames’ starts to 1:00pm, there is no reason he couldn’t be a middle of the rotation guy. Either that or make sure he matches up against the Twins. Last year he was 2-0 with an ERA of 1.35 with a 4:1 K/BB ratio.

Bullpen

If there is going to be any stability in this Baltimore pen, it’s going to come from the back end. George Sherrill managed to convert 31 of 37 save attempts in 2008. He did manage more than a strikeout per nine last year, but with that being said, his K to walk ration was only 1.76.

Sherrill could very well be supported by Chris Ray, the former closer who took over the job in 2006 from the departed B.J. Ryan and converted 33 of 38 that year, and then 16 of 20 in 2007 before being shut down for Tommy John surgery. Before the injury Ray was a solid reliever. It will be interesting to see how he bounces back. He is only 27 coming into the 2009 season, and the Orioles now have a competent lefty and righty at the back of the pen.

Also Jim Johnson quietly had a very nice year for Baltimore last year. He had 54 appearances for 68.2 innings and 19 holds. He only gave up 54 hits and was touched up for zero home runs. His ERA was a very good 2.23.

Outlook:

This is a team with an exciting young outfield that includes one of the guys that everyone will be waiting on to break out in Nick Markakis and a potential rookie of the year on the roster behind the plate. Unfortunately, when your ace is a 29-year-old that is 17-17 in 57 starts, and you’re in the talent-heavy AL East, you are in for a long, long season. The Orioles are built much the same as division rival Toronto. Unfortunately they are behind Toronto when it comes to their ace, their bullpen, and their manager.

Prediction:

I think all that adds up an Orioles team that will be more talented than their record but still finish fifth in the division with a record of 70-92.