Big League Wiffle Ball Hits It Out of the Park

When Nick Benas and Jared Verrillo of Big League Wiffle Ball were kids, they had no idea that the game they played on the cul de sac at the end of Bunker Hill Road could wind up being a career. Or maybe they did.

“I remember thinking,” Benas says, “Someday I’ll do this for living.”

Not an hour’s drive from where wiffle balls and wiffle ball bats are made in Shelton, Connecticut, Benas and Verrillo played wiffle ball until the sky went black. Their parents almost had to handcuff them to get them back in the house. “The best part was, you always knew where to find them,” Benas’ mother, Dian says. “They were always out on the cul de sac playing wiffle ball.”

Twenty years later, they saw the game that they loved transitioning into a sport. Benas knew that it was more than just a child’s game. It was baseball for the 21rst century. Where neighborhood-wide baseball games were nearly impossible to amass due to fast paced schedules, a highly competitive wiffle ball game only took three or four players, two if necessary. The white plastic ball with eight holes in one side caused pitches to defy the laws of physics.

Fields could be creatively adapted to backyard nuances. Even a young person’s limited finances could be accommodated as a bat and ball cost less than ten dollars. Above all, it was a form of baseball that still enabled your average American kid to be a champion. It didn’t take steroids and scholarships and big money contracts. All it took was friends, a love of the game, and a few bucks for a ball and bat.

Benas explains: “Nothing is more American. This is the evolution of baseball. People don’t realize what a pitcher can do with a wiffle ball scuffed to his or her liking until they see the videos on the internet. People don’t realize until they see it. Then they become intrigued. Then they invest in a ball and bat. Then they spend some time in front of a strike zone, pitching and swinging a bat. Then their friends get interested. Then they sign up for their first tournament. Then they’re officially hooked.”

Benas and Verrillo have been running some of the most premier wiffle ball tournaments in the country. All the strongest contingent of professional wiffle ball players reside in New England, they’ve run tournaments on both coasts and even have a branch in the Midwest. They had a wiffle ball homerun tournament at Fenway.

They’ve made wiffle ball an official game at Connecticut’s Nutmeg State Games. Other states are falling in line to make wiffle one of their state games. A reality show is being filmed about their exploits, and they are gunning for the Guinness Book of World Records for the largest wiffle ball tournament in history.

They have a weekly show on their website www.bigleaguewiffleball.com where interviews are posted with premier professional wiffle ball players and business people. Benas says: “Once people get passed the idea that this is a kid’s game and see that it is coming into its own as a sport, it begins to make sense to them. All it takes is for them to see what a professional wiffle pitcher can do with the ball and the feeling of cracking a line-drive homerun passed their opponent.”

America is catching on. With serious money being handed out for tournament prizes and professional wifflers transforming what was once just a backyard game into a highly competitive, organized movement, there appears to be no height that Benas’ and Verrillo’s dream can’t scale.

When America’s pastime collides with the innovative and ever-evolving American dream, why shouldn’t it?

Put On Your Tin Foil Hat, PR Only Matters If….

Permit me to put on my tin foil hat for a minute. Nothing says conspiracy theorist, like tin foil on your head.

Are the New York Yankees brass just like you and me, only richer? Do they make decisions based on the airwave mouth pieces that fill the New York A.M. dial?

I know what you’re thinking, that’s impossible. Is it really? From what I can tell Hank, Hal, Brian and the rest of the crew up in the Bronx are playing real life fantasy baseball and listening to way too much sports talk radio. (Ok, I think what they are doing is way smarter than that, but the fans aren’t looking hard enough.)

My first assertion isn’t completely out of the question. Brian Cashman is clearly getting his scouting report from our friends a CBSSports.com Eric Mack or Scott White.

Here we have a guy that dropped serious cheddar to sign Fantasy baseballs number four first basemen, and number three and twelve start pitchers. (According to cbssports.com) These are additions to a line up that already boasted fantasy baseballs number three closer, number three third basemen, number four ranked short stop and number seven ranked second basemen.

Unfortunately for Yankee fans in fantasyland there are very few points for relief pitchers that don’t close, so Cashman didn’t bother to worry about his bullpen again this off-season.

Also like most fantasy teams the Yankees are a little thin on the bench. After pressing their top utility man outfielder, first basemen and relief pitcher extraordinaire Nick Swisher into action the Yankees are left with a bench that features Berroa, Gardner and Molina.

Now Yankees fan can say what they want about Cashman’s attempt to recreate a fantasy team in pin stripes. So far it looks like his attempts to do all of his scouting at the All-star have failed to pay dividends and the Yankees are a mere one game over five hundred after twenty one games.

Who could’ve predicted that?

Now that alone wasn’t enough to convince me that the chaos that was the Yankees front office wasn’t just a collection of stiffs with a penchant for my life but with more bread to spread around.

Then this happened…Yankees announce new ticketing plan. (This is where the Yankees true brilliance shows through, this move goes against every free market principle in their collective Steinbrenner bodies. Follow along.)

What did my eyes and ears deceive me?

Had the loud mouth callers and sports talk radio hosts in New York City been loud enough and obnoxious enough to cause the 2009 New York Yankees to bend to their will?

The New York Yankees, as in the team owned by George, the team now guided by Hal “Needless to say my dad is a tough act to follow” and Hank “You tell him to hit the damned ball…and hit it when it counts” Steinbrenner. Are now bending to the will of the airwaves.

We are all more than familiar by now with the issue of empty seats in the Legends Suite, and Delta Sky 360 Suite.

In case your not, the Yankees were struggling to sell about 2000 seats per game at the new stadium. So what you might say, well those 2000 seats happen to be the $2500 seats located directly behind home plate and therefore directly in the middle of your TV screen as you watch the game.

Now the Yankees just this week have decided to slash those seats by between 35 and 50 percent depending on the seat. So the $2500 tickets are now going to retail for $1250, and the $1000 seats for $650.

I roast the Yankees for a lot of things; this is not one of them. Lowering tickets to adjust to the market demands makes sense to me. We do it every day in our lives. Baseball tickets being particularly time sensitive, I even give them credit for making this decision in a timely manner.

You know as well as I do, that no matter where you live a ticket price goes something like this. A seat with $50 at the box office, $85 on stub hub, $100 from a scalper 30 minutes before game time, $25 after the first innings and whatever they can get for it by the third. If that isn’t 100% accurate it’s pretty close.

So Hank and Hal good for you. Sitting down and realizing this, realizing you misread the market. Don’t take it personal, it’s not like you’re the only one. Warren Buffet looks confused and he knows more than the rest of us, or so it would seem.

My issue comes with the rebates described in a press release by Hal from the other night.

I know this going to sound weird, but I spent everyday for as long as I can remember hearing that sports is a business. Then for as much as we malign that phrase shouldn’t it teach us to be better consumers?

People will see this as a good PR move by the Yankees. You know why the Yankees need a good PR move? It is because after spending $425 Million dollars on free agents in the off-season they are 11-10 on the 29^th of April.

If the Yankees were 17-4 there wouldn’t be this need to buy a little time so to speak.

I can’t believe we live in world where the New York Yankees, an organization that says you should be allowed to spend your money however you see fit is going to reimburse people for paying the market rate on tickets. Maybe they are still waiting on their Carl Pavano check?

I would contend that if I went out and bought a new Lexus the day it hit the lot, there maybe 19 different cars there loaded with different options and in different colors. On that day the cost on that car is $90,000.00. A year later I return to the same car lot, there are two left, my options are between a green and a blue Lexus. My options are chosen for me. That being said for giving up the options, I’ll probably pay $70,000.00.

Why do I use this example? I do it because the free market says that 85% of Yankee stadium sold at the market price. The remaining 15% of people had to take the seats that were left. On the other hand the Yankees had discovered that they must take action to sell the remaining tickets.

So one of two things is going on here, and I am not buying the Yankees have become like a hooker with a heart of gold.

I think the truth lies in the fact that playing fantasy baseball has finally caught up with the Yankees brass and this ticket rebate is like a prematurely balding man buying a Cherry Red Porsche, it takes the attention off the real problem. All it does is serve to distract from the fact that Teixeira is batting .206 and Burnett and Sabathia in nine starts have surrender 32 runs and combined for a 3 – 2 record.

Romero Comes Through Big Time

What Would Jackie Think of the Guys Manning Second?

The Jays Come Out Of The Gate Flying!

With a country that is now focusing at a playoff run that includes three of the six Canadian squads trying to end Canada’s 16 years playoff drought, the Blue Jays are soaring taking their first two series of the 2009 season.

Unfortunately nobody seems to be noticing. The Jays fans were their normal loud and loyal selves on opening night. Unfortunately a few bad apples decided that with the bases loaded and a seven run lead in the eighth on opening night to participate on a level of stupidity that caused the MLB to threaten forfeit. That was the Ugly. Even more predictable was the dramatic drop off in attendance over the next couple of days.

The Good:

The kids started off scorching hot and were looking to prove that the 12 spot they dropped on the Tigers on opening night was more indicative of the potential offense that they are have. With 46 runs score in the first week and twice knocking out double digits Cito and Gene Tenace seem to have the boys in blue swinging hot sticks right out of the gate.

Adam Lind – Has been on a tare to open his second full big league campaign. He’s managed 12 hits, five for extra bases in just seven games. He’s also shown a knack for the five spot driving in team high 12 runs.

Aaron Hill: Returning for post-concussion syndrome that kept him out of a large chunk of 2008 Hill looks to be back on track to be the player he was becoming, by batting .300 with three double and two long balls. Not to mention he has already knocked in eight RBI from the two spot. Not a proto-type two-spot hitter Hill is capable of creating a lot of excitement with his ability to generate runs.

Vernon Wells: Looking like the guy they gave all that money to, Wells has started the year batting .321 and has also knocked around three doubles and a home run in his first seven games.

The Bad:

Alex Rios: Although Rios seems to have learned the value of a walk with five in his first seven games, he hasn’t exactly been on fire in the three spot. The Jays have scored a league high 42 runs and Rios has driven in six. Combine that with Vernon Wells and you’ve gotten nine RBI out of the 3 and 4 spot. Luckily Hill and Lind has book ended them with 20 out of the two and five spot.

The Pitching: Everyone is enamored with the offense, but people shouldn’t turn a blind eye to the false promise that is this Blue Jays pitching staff. The Jays rank 17^thin the majors in ERA. In the American League alone the Jays rate in the top three in average, runs, slg, OBP and OPS on offense. On the reverse, of the 14 teams in the AL they are ninth in WHIP, ERA and tenth in OPS in pitching.

The Ugly:

I’ve discussed my disappointment in the opening day crowd already with their behavior. Lets talk about the fact that on the night the Blue Jays were attempting to take their third straight from the Tigers to start the season (Their best start since 1996) and drew 12,145 or 24% of capacity. Cito Gaston showed measurable improvement in this teams offense last season and opening day did nothing to dispel that. But 24% capacity by the third game of the season is nothing short of embarrassing.

So what do we know?:

After one week the Jays are mashing and their pitching is right on track with what we might have thought. The glut of runs has allowed them to get into the pen with a lead. Camp, Carlson, Downs and Fraser have held down the late innings. The Jays have gotten one quality start out of rookie Rickey Romero and Roy Halladay is 2-0, but Litsch, Purcey and Richmond have been the weak link accounting for the team’s two losses. In four starts and 21 innings the trio has surrendered 14 earned runs.

Are the Jays for real? Well as long as their two, four and five hitter keep up this pace they should be fine, even with this below average pitching. Unfortunately for them I just don’t seem Adam Lind being the first guy in 68 years to crack .400, and knocking out approx. 70 bombs.

Are the Jays better than most thought, it sure looks that way, but their team ERA and WHIP are cause to be concerned that what we have seen so far can not maintained.

Curt Schilling To The Hall?

It all started in 1988, at the age of 21, Curt Schilling threw his first major league pitch debuting on the mound for the Baltimore Orioles after being called up in early September. For the rest of that season he managed to grind his way through four starts, totaling 14.2 innings and reaching his peak of four consecutive innings.

The stat line for his September call up reads as follows in four starts: 0-3, 9.82 era—10 walks, four strikeouts, and a WHIP of 2.182.

But as they say, it isn’t how you start but how you finish. Well, there weren’t any no no’s on the resume, but yesterday, he finished, with “Zero Regrets.”

Curtis Montague Schilling managed to live the Major League dream for 20 years. When it was all said and done, his 216 – 146 record was certainly more impressive than his ominous start—but even that doesn’t tell the story; nor does the 3116 in 3261 innings.

Schilling is defined by what he managed to do against the best of the best. In his career, whether it was against the 1993 Blue Jays, a team which had three guys that are either in the Hall of Fame or certainly belong, or the 2001 Yankee, a modern dynasty while Schilling was at his best.

On raw regular season numbers, there are places that Schilling is short of the magic stats. There are also other places where he clearly measures up to the greatest the game has ever seen.

Just to make everyone happy, let’s break down a few stats that people think are important and a few that are over looked. Before I make the intangibles’ arguments that make the sports writers and traditionalist turn green, although that shade is probably envy, I will lay out the stats.

I think, for instance, his strikeout total 3116 is a major plus. That total put him 13th on the all time strike out list, 85 whiffs ahead of Pedro Martinez and one behind “The Immortal” Bob Gibson. There are only 15 members of the 3000 K Club. Of all the retired members, only Bert Blyleven is not in the Hall of Fame.

People point to the fact that he has no triple crowns, he has zero no hitters, and he didn’t manage to collect a Cy Young.

He has 216 wins which puts him a solid but not staggering 80th all time.

That to most people would be a minus, but when compared to his contemporaries, he’s only bested by other future hall of famers. Wins to me is more of a team stat anyway—measuring a team and not individual effort, but the sports writers do love to bring them up.

But I would argue that you have to compare people within their Era. If you take those three letters and look at Earned Run Average, you have a guy that was a full run better than the league average for his career.

Schilling has a career number of 3.46 vs. a league average of 4.41. That being said, Randy Johnson has a 3.26 for his career, in that span.

“The Professor” Greg Maddux, a contemporary they’ll most certainly open the doors to on the first ballot put up a 3.16, talk about a staggering stat in the middle of the dubbed Steroid Era.

There is another set of stats, during Schilling’s career, which struck me when I started to sort through all the accolades. I knew the wins number would be what is held against him. But what about the WHIP? You know the one that stat geeks everywhere run to as the measure of a man or a pitcher in this case.
Author Poll Results
Wait Until You’ve Read the Entire Article to Vote, Hall of Famer or not?
•    Yes, Schilling derves enshirement
66.7%
•    No, Schilling didn’t do enough
33.3%
•    Total votes: 3

“The Professor’s” control was legendary, better than everyone else of his time. It had to be right? He couldn’t break a pane of glass but managed to post a 3.16 ERA and the 10th best strikeout total of all time (3371). Maddux for all his control has a career WHIP of 1.143 and a strikeout to walks ration of 3.37.

What if we look at a couple of Future Hall of Fame pitchers and a hurler that I feel to be the best of the best over the last six to eight years?

WHIP                        K/BB
Greg Maddux          1.143                         3.37
Randy Johnson        1.167                         3.27
Pedro Martinez        1.051                         4.15
Roy Halladay          1.208                          3.06
Curt Schilling          1.137                         4.38

Only Pedro has a better walk and hits/innings pitched, and no one on that list has had better strikeouts to walks ratio. By the way, he’s not just the best on that list, but the best of all time amongs pitchers with more than 200 wins.

But the reason that Schilling will enter Cooperstown isn’t because of the regular season. I know it sounds amazing to say that about a guy that won more than 15 or more games eight times in his career; he won more than 20 or more four times.

The truth of the matter is the playoffs. When it matters the most, Schilling took his game up another level. I can hear the collective groans of the sports writing establishment, especially after Schilling managed to drop this major announcement on the public via his blog 38pitches.com.

But the playoff facts are what they are. He took three different cities to the World Series—that is every single team he put on a uniform for went to the World Series at least once. When he was asked to take the ball in his first National League Championship Series, all that Schilling did was go 0 – 0 in two starts, which is a shame considering his 1.69 ERA and 19 strikeouts over 16 innings.

You want to know why wins are a bad statistic to measure a pitcher. Look at that line, he allowed 11 hits and five walks over 16 innings.

He managed a WHIP of 1.00 against an Atlanta team that had Terry Pendleton, Fred McGriff, David Justice, Ron Gant, Otis Nixon, and a short stop in Jeff Blauser that batted over .300 and knocked out 15 homeruns. When the Phillies played the best teams in baseball, Schilling surrendered three runs in two starts, with a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.8.

He followed that up with a World Series effort in an elimination game that still stands as an all-time great performance. Let’s set the stage.

In a 2 -1 series, the Blue Jays hung a six spot on the Phil’s in the 8th inning to come back from five down and take a 3 – 1 series lead. Then in game five, against a lineup of now and future Hall of Fame in guys like Rickey Henderson, Paul Molitor, and Roberto Alomar.

Never mind a supporting cast that included John Olerud, a 24 year old first basemen that batted .363 that year, Devon White, one of the league premier leadoff hitters, and Joe Carter, who would later create one of sports’ most memorable moment.

Schilling walked to the mound in game five, and with his team’s hopes riding on his right arm, posted a remarkable five-hit shutout to give the Phillies another day to play in the fall of 1993.

He followed that up on 2001—at the age of 34 when most players are winding down a career—he started six of 17 playoff games (three of seven in the fall classic) and managed 48 innings or eight per start and an era of 1.13.

Give that a minute to sink in. He pitched three complete games, averaged more than seven or more complete in his other three starts, and posted a sub 1.15 era. Oh yeah, and struck out 56 in 48 innings just for good measure.

Now dare I measure the ability to “Shut up 55,000 people from New York” in 2004? In what was another elimination game for the Red Sox, we saw a guy march out to the top of the mound with his bloody Sox and pull the down trodden Fenway Faithful to the top of the mountain, not once, but twice.

He went and stepped up in Philly, where they had more losses than any other team in Major League history and changed the culture. He went to Arizona and with Randy Johnson grew success in the desert. He went to Boston, where as the sheriff, he managed to wrestle “The Curse of the Bambino” out of town.

In 11 postseasons, the Big Unit is 7 – 9 with an ERA of 3.50, “The Professor” Maddux is 11-14 with an ERA of 3.27, and “The Rocket” is 12 – 8 with a 3.75.

Schilling, when it matters most, is 11 – 2 with a 2.23. He managed 120 strikeouts vs. 25 walks.

He’s managed three World Series rings in only five postseason trips.

When it matters the most, Schilling was not just at his best; you could argue the best of all time. Cooperstown, isn’t a Hall of Most or a Hall of Stats. It’s a Hall of Fame, and the spot light has shown brightest. You knew Curt could not only rise to the challenge but dominate the moment. That’s why he’s Famous!

The MLBPA Says No On Giving Back To The Community

The economy is in shambles, almost one in every ten people in some states are unemployed, people are losing their houses, and it would seem like a great time for those more fortunate to give back. Right?

It was reported by ESPN today that the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA) filed a grievance against the clubs because of the Dodgers new “Ramirez” provision which calls for a charitable donation in all contracts from now on.

Manny Ramirez accepted a 2 year $45 million deal on March 4th. At the same time he made a $1million dollar donation to the Dodgers Dream Foundation at the request of the Dodgers owner Frank McCourt. Now it is not known if McCourt asked for that much or if Manny generously offered up the million after being asked for just a donation. But McCourt vowed that he would require all contracts from the Dodgers to have a “Ramirez” provision.

This provision is a blank line for the player to write in an amount that they want to donate to charity. So it does not require a certain amount, as long as it’s something. It could be a dollar or a million. But the player that donates more will certainly benefit from the positive image it creates for them in their new team’s city.

Back to the grievance. The MLBPA’s lawyer feels that its fine for players to make donations whenever THEY want to, but that forcing players to make a donation was not allowed under the current agreement.

The Executive VP of Labor Relations, Rob Manfred, says that it’s totally fine and that teams have been doing it for years. He says that as long as it is a club policy and is adhered to then clubs are free to bargain with players and make special pacts.
“Article II of baseball’s labor agreement states contracts can include special covenants which actually or potentially provide additional benefits to the player. We’re at a loss to understand how the MLBPA could possibly take the position that making a charitable donation does not provide a benefit to the player,” says Manfred.

Frank McCourt was surprised by the news when asked about it today but I feel that he put it best in his statements below.
“I have not seen the grievance, but I find it odd that in these challenging times, that we encounter a complaint against the idea of players giving back to the communities that support them,” he said in a statement. “We believe there are qualities that represent the Dodger way. The player’s contributions to the team, appreciation of the fans, and impact on such a supportive community all combine to help our organization live up to our core values. We seek players who embrace these values. The Ramirez provision is a blank line to be filled in with whatever number a player chooses.”

Way to go Frank! The MLBPA needs to pull their heads out and open up THEIR pocket books, along with the players and continue to give back to their communities and help those less fortunate than them.

The grievance was filed Friday and if it’s not settled it will go to arbitrator Shyam Das for a decision.

A Case For Sabermetrics

So, in these posts the past few months I have given you all a brief definition of Sabermetrics and then given you a few key stats (VORP and RC), but now, as an aside, I felt it necessary to give you more of a why.

We will do this by analyzing the 2008 year of Red Sox DH David Ortiz compared to his previous two years as a member of the Boston Red Sox to see if his skills are diminishing due to his age (33) and body type (large). It has been widely reported this off season, that Ortiz is quite possibly on the decline.

Personally, I think it has more to do with his ailing knees that were operated on prior to the 2008 season, but too close to spring training for them to heal properly. Then add to that, the freakish wrist sheath injury that limited him to 109 games. He shook it off for a while upon his return from the DL, but he started feeling or hearing a (pain-free) clicking in the injured wrist down the stretch run. Tell me what team-oriented player wouldn’t be affected by that in a playoff race and especially when he’s the teams 3 or 4 hitter.

I choose the two years prior to 2008 due to their close proximity to last year and their significance, they were considered his best seasons as a pro. In 2006, Ortiz hit a career high in HRs (54, a new Red Sox record), ISO (.349) and his third best RBI total (137). In 2007, he scored his second highest Runs total (116), his best BA and OBP (.332 and .445).

To do this, we will look at his G, R, HR, RBI, BA, OBP, SLG, ISO, BB Rate, SO Rate, FB%, GB%, LINEDR%, POPUP%, BABIP and HRR.

The new metrics in this post are BABIP, which is batting average on balls in play; LINEDR% is the rate of line drives hit; FB% % is the rate of fly balls hit; ISO, which is his isolated power numbers (in terms of extra bases per AB); BB Rate is the percentage of plate appearances that result in a walk; SO Rate is the percentage of plate appearances that result in a strike out; GB% is the rate of ground balls; POPUP% is the rate of pop ups hit and HRR is the rate of HR hit per AB.

By the Numbers

First, let’s take a look at the similarities between these three years. His strike out rate (SO Rate) and HR rate (HRR) matched that of his 2007 numbers (his 2006 HRR was 8%, 3% higher than 2007 and 2008), his ground ball percentage (GB%) and line drive percentage (LINEDR%) matched that of his 2006 season (his GB% was 1% lower than 2007) and his BABIP was only .001 lower than his 2006 season (.273 to .274).

Second, let’s take a look at the differences between these three years. We will avoid the following stats (R, HR and RBI) because they were directly affected by only playing in 109 games as opposed to 149 and 151 in the other two years. His BA of .264 was the lowest of his career when playing in 100+ games (he hit .234 with the Twins in 2001 while playing in 89 games). His OBP was .369 was tied for the lowest it’s been as a member of the Red Sox since 2003 (it had been .380 or as high as .445 between 2004-2007).

His 2008 slugging (SLG) of .507 and .243 isolated power (ISO) were both the lowest marks as a member of the Red Sox. His walk rate (BB Rate) was down 3% in 2008, but it was still higher than it was in his first two seasons in Boston (both were at 11%). His flyball rate (FB%) was down 5% depending on which site you use (Baseball Prospectus or FanGraphs) so we will call this one even as FanGraphs does. His pop up percentage was up 4% from 2008 to 2006 and 7% from 2008 to 2007.

My analysis

Given this analysis, I truly believe that Ortiz was more affected by his ailing knees which were still bothering him after off season surgery. This ailment alone caused him not to be able to drive the ball as easily as he has in the past. The health of the lower body of a power hitter like Ortiz if pivotal to his power numbers and Ortiz was learning how to be productive in spite of not having his full weight behind his swings.

Then came the freakish torn tendon sheath in his left wrist. Now remember, for lefties, their left wrist is the one that is in back and having problems with that back wrist would impede Ortiz to drive the ball as well. Players don’t usually let go with their hand that’s in back until after contact. I’m not sure if this had any other impact, but he has also had past concerns with his shoulder, too. Therefore, nothing else really strikes me as being a concern that David Ortiz is in decline, but only time will tell for sure.

My 2009 David Ortiz Projection

If healthy (knees, wrist and shoulder), I expect to see Ortiz put up the following numbers:

G: 150 R: 101 HR: 31 RBI: 122  BA:  .280  OBP: .380  SLG: .615  ISO: .290  BABIP: .290

Peter Schiller also writes monthly for Seamheads.com and almost daily at his personal baseball blog, Baseball Reflections.com. Please follow the links to read his work at these two other sites.

2009 Seattle Mariners Preview

Last year’s Mariners were without a doubt, dollar for dollar, the worst team in the Major Leagues. Ex-General Manager Bill Bavasi’s tenure will no doubt be remembered as some of the worst general managing of all time, marked by the terrible contracts handed to Richie Sexson, Jarrod Washburn, and Carlos Silva, the awful trades he made, and just all around failure. Many “experts” expected the Mariners to compete in 2008. Well, that is exactly the opposite of what happened, and basically everyone who hand the slightest hand in putting that team together was ultimately was fired.

The 2009 Mariners Slogan “A New Day, A New Would” could not be more accurate. New General Manager Jack Zduriencik and assistants Tony Blengino and Tom McNamara have taken an entirely different approach to building this roster. They hired baseball stat expert Tom Tango to help with a Sabermetrics department, which was basically enough to show me that these guys might know what they are doing. In an offseason with a pretty bad free agent class, having their hands tied by the upper management with regards to money, and a huge sum of payroll tied up in bad deals by given out by the former regime, the new group did a decent job amassing a solid amount of talent for relatively no cost. Will this team compete? That’s an extreme longshot. Will this year be a great step forward for an organization that took massive steps backwards under the former management? That is all but certain.

Key additions:
Ken Griffey Jr. (DH/OF), Franklin Gutierrez (OF), Endy Chavez (OF), Russell Branyan (1B), Mike Carp (1B), Chris Shelton (1B), Ronny Cedeno (IF), Garrett Olson (SP/RP), Tyler Walker (RP), David Aardsma (RP), and a whole bunch of live bullpen arms via waivers, the Rule 5, and minor transactions.

Key Subtractions:
Raul Ibanez (OF), Jeremy Reed (OF), Willie Bloomquist (UT), Miguel Cairo (UT), J.J. Putz (RP), Sean Green (RP), R.A. Dickey (SP/RP), Jake Woods (RP), Eric O’Flaherty (RP), Jared Wells (RP)

A look at the lineup:
The Mariners’ offseason consisted of quite the purge, and a lot of changes and experimentation will definitely take place in 2009. Additions Franklin Gutierrez, Endy Chavez, and Ken Griffey Jr. will likely see a good amount of playing time, and prospects Wladimir Balentein and Jeff Clement should get a long look to see where they both stand after awful 2008 campaigns. Ichiro and Beltre’s positions are safe, but after that, every position could realistically be up for grabs in 2009, making this season pretty intriguing regardless of the team’s record.

Catcher: While the regular catcher should be Jeff Clement, a terrible contract handed out to Kenji Johjima will probably keep Clement on the bench or in Tacoma more often than not. Johjima had a horrendous 2008 (.227/.277/.332), and should rebound to produce decent numbers from the 2-spot. This is not, however, justification to keep Clement out of the starting spot. Clement struggled in his time in the majors, but with regular playing time in AAA Tacoma he was able to destroy the ball to a tune of .335/.455/.676 with 14 homers in just 173 AB. On a more competitive team, keeping Johjima behind the plate more often might make sense, as he will probably be more consistent and better defensively. But he should have been allowed to do that for another team, instead of blocking Clement. Now aging, with a huge contract, coming off a terrible year, there is almost no chance Johjima can be moved in a trade without serious money or talent going with him.

First Base:
Russell Branyan is penciled in as the starter at this point, but a suitable platoon partner would be nice. If Chris Shelton can show that he can still hit the ball and play decent defense to warrant giving him a 40-man roster spot, he could end up being that partner. The Mariners do have a couple of players on the 40-man that are expendable, and this may become a reality. Branyan is a true power source (12 homers in 132 AB) and should enjoy hitting in the left-hand-favoring Safeco Field. The problem, however, is the complete inability to hit lefthanders (.204/.284/.446. in his career). Shelton fairs decently against lefties for his career (.283/.346/.492) and the two could provide a surprise above average first baseman if used correctly.

Second Base:
Jose Lopez has never lived up to the billing he received when signed by Seattle in 2000. Some view this as Lopez being a failed prospect, but honestly that isn’t really true. He’s been an above average second baseman since he got to the Bigs, and while somewhat inconsistent throughout the year, puts up pretty good numbers when it comes down to it (.271/.303/.398 career). Even though advanced defensive metrics rate him as slightly above average, most scouts agree he is much more of a defensive liability than it seems. Rumors swirling this spring include that Lopez has put on some extra pounds in order to hit for more power and some fear this will cause his already slow first step to get even slower. Should Adrian Beltre be moved this season, logic says Lopez slides over to 3B and sticks there. Ronny Cedeno was brought in as a backup, and will most definitely put pressure on both Lopez and shortstop Yunieksy Betancourt.

Third Base:
Perhaps the most underrated, underappreciated player in all of baseball, Adrian Beltre will continue to play hard and play extremely well day in and day out for the Mariners. His contract is pretty much the only good one Bavasi gave in his tenure and Beltre is vastly underpaid by today’s market standards. He easily has one of, if not the best, third base glove in baseball. All of the advanced defensive metrics, as well as, scouting reports back it up. He’s not going to hit 48 homers like he did in 2003, but he’s still incredibly skilled with the bat. Last year’s .266 batting average was definitely a fluke and could have easily been closer to .300 had his below average .279 BABIP not deflated it. Expect another great season out of Beltre, and probably expect him to get shipped off for a nice package of prospects to a team in need at the deadline. Beltre is one Mariner of the Bavasi Era that I will truly miss when he’s gone.

Short Stop:
Yuniesky Betancourt was practically handed the role of Seattle Mariners shortstop when he stepped off the boat from Cuba—and he probably deserved it. He was a below average hitter, but could hack it for the position, and was a superb defender. He was highly regarded as the best defensive player in baseball for a year or so. Then something changed, Yuni got bigger, and perhaps lazier, and became one of the worst defensive players in the league. He won’t hit much, so his value relies on his ability to pick it, and that has all but gone over the last two years. Ronny Cedeno may end up being the Mariners everyday shortstop if this trend continues in 2009. That would result in Betancourt being shipped off to a team who thinks he can still field or just delegated to the bench as a pinch runner.

Left Field:
Probably the most interesting story of the Mariners offseason was: how do we fill the void that Raul Ibanez left? Well the Mariners’ front office showed that they “get it” when they claimed Ibanez wasn’t all that valuable, due to his defensive inadequacies, and were able to get defensive extraordinaire Endy Chavez as a player thrown into the JJ Putz trade. They also appear to have given up on Wladimir Balentein, who showed major holes at the plate all year long in 2008. Endy was penciled in as the starter in left field, but now with the signing of Ken Griffey Jr., things get a little more complicated. Griffey Jr. should be this team’s designated hitter. However, baseball politics, notoriety, and old-school concepts may keep Endy on the bench as a reserve. It’s true, Chavez’s bat is awful, but looking at what he brings defensively, he’s probably going to be a more valuable left fielder than Griffey. Griffey is one of the worst defensive players in baseball over the last few years, and at 39, I doubt coming back to Seattle will rejuvenate him that much. It seems like the plan is to play Griffey out there until they can’t anymore, and then give Chavez the spot. There is still a large contingent of people who don’t understand defensive value and think Griffey should be in the field on a daily basis. These people are wrong.

Center Field:
The biggest name for the Mariners brought through the JJ Putz trade is definitely Franklin Gutierrez. Even though he struggled with the bat in his first full season in the Bigs (.248/.307 /.383), Gutierrez is a defensive wizard with an amazing arm. Gutierrez is only 25 and has a lot of time to improve his bat work, and could end up becoming a plus bat and a real steal for the Mariners in that trade. Zduriencik decided to go with quantity over quality in the Putz trade, probably a smart move for a team that needs a complete overhaul, and he still ended up getting a nice catch in Gutierrez.

Right Field:
Ichiro. Read what you will, believe what you want, all the papers in Seattle seem to think Ichiro is the real reason this team collapsed. From Carlos Silva, to JJ Putz, and even a little poke from Adrian Beltre, Ichiro has been labeled selfish, and not a “team guy”. But, when it comes down to it, he has been one of the top 5 most valuable outfielders in the major leagues since 2005. He may not dive for the ball, steal every time he’s on base, or hit homers, but what he does is help win games, and that’s what he’s being paid to do. I am 100% for Ichiro in whatever he does, and I truly believe, had he done the same exact thing on a winning team, he’d be considered a team leader, unselfish, and a guy who would do anything to win. Superstars get blamed when their team loses, that’s just how it goes, and Ichiro is truly a superstar.

Designated Hitter:
This spot could be up for grabs depending on how the “Griffey in left field” situation shakes itself out. Best case scenario would be that Griffey shares time here with Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentein, while Clement also catches and Balentein is used as a reserve. If Griffey plays the field, the spot is open to both of the youngsters, and we’ll probably see more of Clement at DH than behind the plate. Any way you look at it, this position has the potential to be a real revolving door situation, and a good chance to showcase the Griffey/Mariners Reunion Tour or get a look at what the two youngsters really bring to the plate.

A look at the pitching:

The Mariners starters will look very similar to 2008, with the only difference being Brandon Morrow taking Miguel Batista’s spot in the rotation. Should the top three (Hernandez, Bedard, and Morrow) stay healthy and pitch up to their potential; this could be a very dangerous staff. The two incredibly overpaid and incredibly average four and five guys, Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva, will actually be a suitable back end of a rotation regardless of how expensive they are. This staff could actually end up being quite the strength for the 2009 Mariners, and with a more defensive minded approach this season, could really be a surprise that allows this M’s team to compete.

Starters:
Felix may have taken a slight step back last year as far as peripherals go. His swinging strike rate went down, as did his ground ball rate, and he walked more batters than ever before. This alarms some, but keep in mind Felix is only going to turn 23 in April. That’s younger than each of the following: Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Chad Billingsly, David Price, Edinson Volquez, Joba Chamberlain, Fransisco Liriano… well you get the idea. He’s already got more innings and more stirkeouts under his belt than all of those names as well. Felix has some of the best stuff on the planet; he can throw the ball in the mid to high 90s with authority, and backs it up with a superb curveball and perhaps an even better changeup. The Mariners preached fastball first to the youngster for the last couple years, and much work has been done at blogs USSMariner.com and LookoutLanding.com to show how this was really dumb. If Felix mixes his pitches, he is truly one of the most talented hurlers on the planet and should be for a long time. Hopefully that long time is spent in Mariners’ blue and teal.

If Eric Bedard stays healthy, he’s probably a top 10 pitcher in the majors… but, that’s a big “if”. Missing a load of starts last season, and recovering from shoulder surgery this offseason, Bedard’s status is a giant question mark. If he can stay healthy through the whole year, he should be one of the more valuable pitchers in baseball, and will probably be traded in a deal much like Rich Harden’s trade from last season.

Brandon Morrow’s development as a starter is one of the most important stories for the 2009 Mariners. He’s already shown that he can be an incredibly effective reliever, but more value would come from him taking his skill set to a starting role. He’s armed with one of the best fastballs in baseball, which tops at 100 and is usually in the 97-99 range. Morrow’s two keys this year will be developing his curve and changeup and keeping the ball in the zone consistently. If he can do that, he could be a very great pitcher for this ballclub.

Silva and Washburn are decent options for the four and five slots, but the problem is that they are being paid as if they are aces. Washburn is a candidate to be moved during the season if he pitches well, and should have been moved last year. There is not a single team that would take on Silva’s full salary, and he will likely (and unfortunately) be a Mariner until the end of his contract. Both should hover around league average or slightly below for the season, and both will be smiling on their way to the bank.

Ryan Rowland-Smith may also get a shot to crack the rotation, and in his brief stint in that role last year, answered the call very well and did exactly what was expected of him. If the team can move Washburn early, Bedard gets hurt, Silva has one too many hamburgers and misses a start due to acid indigestion, Rowland-Smith is the Mariners next and best option. I’m hoping to see as much of RRS in the rotation as possible.

Other options for the rotation include Garrett Olson and Ryan Feierabend. Olson might need a little more time in the minors or the bullpen, and Feierabend may have to get surgery that will put an early end to his 2009 season.

Bullpen:
GM Jack Zduriencik should lecture for the class “How to Build a Cheap Effective Bullpen 101”. By searching the league for guys with great stuff, spotty command, or injury problems with the ability to pass them up and down on the Tacoma Shuttle easily, he has given new Manager Don Wakamatsu a ton of options to use in the later innings. After the Putz deal, there was a lot of talk about the weakness and uncertainty of the bullpen, however, I don’t really believe that will be the case. Former closer Tyler Walker and flamethrower David Aardsma will probably battle Mark Lowe and Miguel Batista for the closer spot. The bullpen is young and can throw hard, but is slightly inconsistent. The Rays showed us that this can work wonders last year, and other teams have done it in the past. He’s also given Wakamatsu a number of talented lefties who all could end up being decent LOOGY’s for this team. That role is probably Cesar Jiminez’s spot to lose, but he will be threatened by Jose Lugo, Jason Vargas, and Justin Thomas. I give kudos to Zduriencik for not wasting any money on his relief corps and instead building a staff with a lot of unrecognizable names that could still manage to be an extremely solid group.

Outlook:
The 2009 Mariners should have one thing in mind: Progression. This organization isn’t going to wake up and be good overnight. By amassing talent for a couple years through trades, free agency, and the draft and spending “smart” money, this team could easily become “Boston of the West Coast”. If the trend and concepts of the current leadership of the team stick, and Presidents Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong stay away from the baseball side of operations, this organization could be built back up to be a winner for a long time.

Prediction:
As for 2009, I can’t see the Mariners winning more than 80 games (77-85), but this year is just part of the picture for this organization. Here’s to a successful 2009, and here’s to “A New Day, A New Way” in Seattle.

Phillies Release Adam Eaton

The World Champion Phillies have reportedly released starting pitcher Adam Eaton, who is in the final year of a three-year, $24.5 million contract.

After being sent to the Minors last year, Eaton was called back up to a Phillies roster spot in early September, but made no appearances during their playoff run.

Eaton made his debut for the Phillies on April 5, 2007 against the Atlanta Braves, pitching 4⅔ innings,  giving up 7 earned runs, and taking his first loss. He continued the season and was 10–10 with an earned run average of 6.29, one of the worst in the league.

Despite being released, Eaton told reporters that he will still wear his championship ring, but seems saddened he was not invited to celebrate the teams victory by participating in the Phillies parade.

Eaton was not considered a candidate to fill the Phillies fifth starter position.

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