Oliver Perez Mets $36MM Disaster?

There is no doubt Oliver Perez can slump, and lose command of a baseball game, but should he already be deemed the “Mets $36MM disaster?” A few may be starting think “Yes”, including manager Jerry Manual.

The New York Post published and article today that slashes Perez at the knees, similar to when a weed-whacker hits a bumble bee.

Statements like “he has no pitching IQ”, “he generally has no clue where the ball is going once it leaves his hand”, and even calling Perez a “the Mets 36 million dollar disaster”.

Jerry Manual has said  he is “really, really concerned”, and in a “round-about” way mentioned that if Perez can not find his “stuff” he will be useless to the club.

Making a somewhat valid point right?

At the moment, Perez does have an atrocious ERA of 9.31, he has walked 15 batters, and has allowed a skyrocketing amount of hits (23). Yes these numbers could make a pitcher feel like an exploding bumble bee, but we need to remember these numbers are only after 19 total innings and the beginning of a very hectic season in New York.

If you compare him to someone like Johan Santana who currently sits at 0.70 in the ERA column, for a recent $36MM addition you should be concerned, but to be “really, really concerned” might be jumping the gate.

The whole entire season remains in front of  Perez to make improvements. If the Mets have any confidence in their pitching staff, the organzation should feel somewhat at ease with the situation.

Bad luck in previous seasons, may have the inventors of the rally cap on the edge, but I think it is far too soon to call Perez “the Mets $36MM disaster”.

New York Mets Add Sugar To Oliver Perez Offer

Since Derek Lowe has officially been snatched off the radar, the New York Mets were expected to zero in on starting pitcher Oliver Perez-a promise they have intended to keep. It has been reported that the Mets may have added more money or another year to the 3-year, $30MM money bag that continues to sit on the table for Perez.

Speculation also places the Mets interest in signing starter Andy Pettitte. However, mutual talks and negotiations between the Yankees and Pettitte still remain apparent. The Yanks have made a 1-year offer to Pettitte in the $10MM range, a pay cut from his $16MM earnings last season. Pettitte has not budged on the offer. How can you blame him? Maybe.

With the recent addition of Tim Redding and Freddy Garcia, adding Perez could just be the reinsurance the Mets had hoped to add to the depth of their rotation.

Ben Sheets is also part of the mix, reportedly a possible signee by both New York clubs. With pitchers and catchers due to Spring Training in just a few weeks, this could be one crazy week for all of those free agents still floating on the market.

The REAL Reason Your Team Is Not Shopping This Offseason

Wondering why your team is not making a mad last ditch run to shore up a needed position on your team via free agency? Well, the economy is the overwhelming issue at hand, but that is not the only reason.

First we’ll examine the overall economic factors. Just look at the current free agent class, (most) teams are just not as willing to shell out big money and especially not big contracts for fear of how the economy will affect their market. The fact that Manny has not yet signed is a big testament to that, as well as the many free agents like Derek Lowe, Francisco Rodriquez (K-Rod), or Pat Burrell who all had to sign well below what they might have before the recession.

But the REAL reason, for the time being, is arbitration. Most teams have many arbitration hearings, or contracts, to work out as we approach spring training. This means that as team budgets shrink the potential money that will have to be paid via arbitration hearings or contracts will have a greater impact. Sure, typically 20 million dollars in payroll at this time of year wouldn’t be as big a deal. But with the economic uncertainty that teams are facing in their respective markets the money that teams might have to pay out in the coming weeks has become a bigger issue.

No one is really saying this of course, teams want to downplay the economy at some times and rightfully so. But I guarantee you that teams are waiting to find out what budget they will have left to work with before they start to go after big free agents before spring training. It makes sense, I mean let’s all find out what we will owe our current employees before we go out and hire any new ones.

Most teams have many arbitration hearings to go through. Shoring up young talented players like Andre Ethier, Russel Martin, or Cole Hamels is definitely a priority for teams. Especially since most teams are getting a great deal for these players. And most teams have more arbitration eligible players than not. Now I understand that not all arbitration eligible players make it to an arbitration hearing. Clubs try to do all that they can to avoid this and you can see this by a flurry of smaller contracts being worked out right now in order to avoid arbitration.

After all of these contracts get worked out you will start to see teams get more aggressive with their signings, albeit at the 11th hour. I’ll bet that we see a Manny deal after the Dodgers have finished dealing with all of their arbitration eligible players that they have left. And after Manny goes, so will Dunn, Abreu, and others. The same will go for pitching; clubs will make stronger offers to pitchers like Oliver Perez, Ben Sheets, Randy Wolf, and Jon Garland after they finish hammering out salaries for their existing staff.

I’m not sure why this is being treated like such a white elephant and I am also not aware of anyone else that has pointed this out. It seems pretty clear that clubs are holding back on contracts for good reasons.  Other than the overall economic situations, which are all relevant to each team’s specific market, currently it is the uncertainty over what clubs will have to pay via arbitration or new contracts for arbitration eligible players.

Mets Expected To Zero In On Oliver Perez

Now that Derek Lowe has officially been snatched off the radar, the Mets are now expected to zero in on starting pitcher Oliver Perez. During the past two season Perez won 25 games for the Mets and has recorded 355 strike outs total.

According to few recent reports the Mets general manager Omar Minaya has offered Perez a three-year, $30 million deal. Perez has been referred to as “the backup plan” if negotiations with Derek Lowe would indeed go south, and in reality they did-straight to the Atlanta Braves.

Other sources say that GM Omar Minaya would have rather signed Oliver Perez than Derek Lowe in the first place.

Minaya may get his wish after all, as the Mets are expected to bring back the lefty in the wake of losing Derek Lowe to the Braves.

With the recent signing of Tim Redding and possibly Perez a stronger defense is in the making. Players like Jose Reyes will hope to jump-start the offensive attack in hopes of making the 2009 post season.

Perez was acquired by the Mets during the 2006 season.

Derek Lowe Accepts 4 Years $60MM From Braves

According to multiple MLB news sources this morning, Derek Lowe has accepted a formal offer from the Atlanta Braves possibly worth 4 years, and $60MM. Reportedly the two sides and agent Scott Boras seemed to be engaging in serious discussions for almost 4 days. RBI Magazine first heard the story about a possible offer from ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick who reported that Lowe was learning towards signing with the Braves almost immediately after an offer was made.

The signing comes after negotiations between the Braves and Derek Lowe heated up following a meeting held last Thursday afternoon, with agent Scott Boras, Derek Lowe, Braves manager Bobby Cox, general manager Frank Wren and pitching coach Roger McDowell all in attendance.

Miguel Salcido reports that Lowe averages more than 15 wins a season, throws a heavy sinker that keeps the ball on the ground, has a stellar record of not being injured, and has proven to be a great big game pitcher-a perfect fit for the Atlanta Braves.

The Mets are now officially out of the hunt offering Lowe only $36MM over the span of 3 years. The Mets will now focus on their secondary target Oliver Perez.

Update 11:02 P.M. EST - The Atlanta Journal first reported that Lowe agreed on the deal.

Braves Offer Derek Lowe 4 Years $60MM

According to multiple MLB news sources this morning, Derek Lowe has received a formal offer from the Atlanta Braves possibly worth 4 years, and $60MM. Reportedly the two sides and agent Scott Boras seem to be engaged in serious discussions. ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports indications are that he’s leaning strongly toward signing with Atlanta, a baseball source told ESPN.com.


The offer comes after negotiations between the Braves and Derek Lowe heated up following a meeting held last Thursday afternoon, with agent Scott Boras, Derek Lowe, Braves manager Bobby Cox, general manager Frank Wren and pitching coach Roger McDowell all in attendance.

Miguel Salcido reports that Lowe averages more than 15 wins a season, throws a heavy sinker that keeps the ball on the ground, has a stellar record of not being injured, and has proven to be a great big game pitcher-a perfect fit for the Atlanta Braves.

The Mets now seem to be out of the hunt offering Lowe only $36MM over the span of 3 years. The Mets may now focus on their secondary target Oliver Perez.

Update 11:02 P.M. EST - The Atlanta Journal is now reporting that Lowe has agreed on the deal.

Top 10 Free Agents Your Team Doesn’t Have

There is no doubt that this year’s free agent class has been one of the most epic of all time.  There was a ton of big time talent available like CC Sabathia, Mark Texeira, Manny Ramirez, and Adam Dunn. If you are a team in need then you have the opportunity to really turn things around. Just ask the New York Yankees!

Yet, given the amount of talent available the market has developed slower than Andruw Jones’ bat this season. We all have Scott Boras to thank for that. He likes to hoard his players until the last minute while he tries everything to create a circus and a buzz around his players. And unfortunately he represents the majority of the biggest names in baseball.

Another thing that has slowed the market is the economic uncertainty that owners are facing. No one is sure what the impact will be on their respective markets. If you ask Scott Boras baseball is recession proof. Nevertheless teams are treading very carefully, especially those in smaller markets that rely more on ticket sales.

But I need to also mention that we need to not only look at this year’s free agent crop when analyzing the market. We need to consider who will be on the market in the coming years. Fred Claire does a great job of analyzing the free agent market in the coming years. Read it if you have the time but the jist of it is that the market, in terms of the amount of talent that will be available, will be much thinner in the years to come. And that tells us that now is the time to buy, especially considering that contracts are going to be smaller this year because of the amount of talent out there and because of the economic uncertainty.

That being said, here are the top 10 free agents left in this year’s market:

MANNY RAMIREZ, OF/DH

Not much needs to be mentioned here as Manny Ramirez is one of the greatest right handed hitters of all time. He recently hit .396 with 17 homers and 53 RBIs in 53 games for Dodgers and pretty much carried them into the playoffs, while making everyone on the team better around him. Sure he has a checkered past and has proven to be quite juvenile. But it is apparent that all he wants to be respected for his talents and acknowledged. He has a ton of money and I do not believe that is all that motivates him. And Harold Reynolds of ESPN and MLB Network notes that what Manny has done in the past is nowhere close to as criminal as what so many other players have done on and off the field! Manny just attracts attention because of his electric personality and bat.

DEREK LOWE, SP

If you are looking for pitching, and most teams are, then Derek Lowe is your safest option left because if his consistency. He averages more than 15 wins a season, throws a heavy sinker that keeps the ball on the ground, has a stellar record of not being injured, and has proven to be a great big game pitcher. The Mets are the front runners to sign him but I don’t think that the three-year, $36 million offer will get it done unless Lowe is really motivated to pitch in NY this season.

BOBBY ABREU, OF/DH

Abreu is consistent and his cautious approach keeps him healthy. He is in very good company, joining Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols, as having reached at least 100 RBI in the past six seasons. His defense is average, and is better than Manny’s and Dunn’s but that isn’t saying much. He is patient at the plate and uses the whole field. He would set a great example for other young hitters on any team he lands with. He will probably be the best bargain of this year’s free agent class as he is highly underrated.

ADAM DUNN, OF/DH

Adam Dunn is a great power hitting left handed run producer. But he is a below average fielder that has proven to be cranky player when he doesn’t get his way. Dunn does not run well, Manny might be able to beat him to first, and he strikes out more than almost anyone else. However his patience at the plate gives him a good OBP and his all or nothing approach gives you about 40 home runs and 100 RBI each season. Given his lack defensive liability and power stoke he may be well suited for the American League, possibly the Angels, which is why I list him as a possible DH. It has been reported that the Nationals and Jim Bowden may make a run at Dunn but the Dodgers have also listed him as a fall back option if they do not land Manny.

BEN SHEETS, SP

Big Ben is a great pitcher with electric stuff….. when he is healthy that is. He has a better career than A.J. Burnett but also has an injury plagued history that is keeping teams away. He is definitely not getting the respect he deserves which makes him a possible bargain and candidate for a short-term incentive laden contract. If he stays healthy he can be one of the top pitchers in the league. Unfortunately that is too big of an “if” for most teams it seems.

PAT BURRELL, OF/DH

Pat Burrell has all the shortcomings of Dunn. Poor defensive skills, no speed, and strikes out at a dizzying rate. But he is also good for 30+ home runs and 100 RBI a season. His declining defense and lack of speed also make him well suited for move to the American League. I am totally amazed that there are not more teams going after his power bat. Maybe it is because of the fact that he has not been able to put together a complete season, often playing poorly in either the first or second half of each season. He tends to not be consistent and that maybe his main drawback. I still feel that Burrell is in the same group with Sheets and Abreu as one of the more underrated free agents of this year’s market.

MILTON BRADLEY, OF/DH

Bradley is coming off of a stellar season in which he lead the entire AL in both on-base percentage (.436) and OPS (.999). Another plus is that he is a switch hitter that hits for power and average. The reason that I list him so low is that he has bad knees that limit him to probably 130-135 games in the field. It is said that he could still go to the National League and the Nationals are said to have him at the top of their list, as well as the Cubs.

JON GARLAND, SP

Jon Garland is coming off of a weak 2008, which is never good for a free agent, despite a respectable 14 wins which can be counted on from him. He rarely strikes anyone out and is said to be one of those guys that pitches to contact, so he needs a solid defense behind him. His career is not that dissimilar to that of Burnett or Lowe but again his 2008 was not super, with an ERA of 4.90 and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1.53. Garland would be a much better fit for the NL where there is no DH and has been rumored to be sought after by the Cardinals and their pitching maestro Dave Duncan.

OLIVER PEREZ, SP

Perez is solid lefty, posting 25 wins over the past two seasons with the Mets. He has proven to be pretty durable by pitching over 170 innings in the past two years. He is a strikeout pitcher, averaging 150+ over the past three seasons but is also hittable with an average of 150 hits per season during that same span of time. So he is not spectacular but can be solid. Unfortunately Boras is his agent and is of course asking for way too much, 5 years and $70 million. I doubt that he’ll get that in today’s market. The Mets would like him back but need to first see if they can land Lowe before they will make him an offer.

ORLANDO CABRERA, SS

I am going to round out my list with an infielder, not just to round out the top 10 but because he deserves it. Cabrera is much better, right now, than Renteria. And Renteria surprisingly signed an $18.5 million deal. Cabrera is a masterful fielder, earning this year’s Defensive Player of the year from MLB.com/TWIB and just missed the Gold Glove award in the AL. Along with his glove, Cabrera also brings his bat with him to the ball park. He hit a respectable .281, can score around 100 runs per season, will swipe some bags and makes for a great lead-off man. Unfortunately the market was full of good SS this year so he has lost some value. But some team somewhere will end up with a great lead-off man/SS at a great value.
Honorable mentions: Jason Giambi, Orlando Hudson, Joe Crede, Andy Pettitte, Garret Anderson, Randy Wolf, and Freddy Garcia.