The Improbable Dream! Rays Win Game 7!

First the New York Yankees, then the Cleveland Indians. NOT added to the victim list - The Tampa Bay Rays!

In 2004, the Boston Red Sox became the first team in history to survive a 3-0 deficit by winning 4 straight games against the New York Yankees to advance to the 2004 World Series. Last year the Red Sox found themselves trailing the Cleveland Indians 3-1. The ‘Sox rallied like rock stars winning three in a row and eventually sweeping the Colorado Rockies in the 2007 World Series. This year trailing the Rays 3-1 the Red Sox just could not get it done!

Dustin Pedroia lead off the attack for Boston in the first inning driving a solo home run (his third of the series and the 25th home run of the ALCS), deep to left putting the ‘Sox on the board first in Game 7. The Rays fought back in the bottom of the 4th when Evan Longoria doubled on a fly ball hit in the right field gap near J.D. Drew scoring Carlos Pena. The Rays then took the lead in the bottom of the 5th after an RBI single hit by Rocco Baldeli scoring Willy Aybar from second. After 5 innings of play, the Rays lead 2-1.

Series Timeline

Game 1: Daisuke Matsuzaka held the Tampa Bay Rays scoreless through seven innings in game one and cruised his team to a 2-0 victory and a 1-0 start to the ALCS.

Game 2: A four home run night in Game 2 proved not to be enough after 11 total innings for the Red Sox. A sac fly by Tampa’s B.J. Upton late in the 11th tied the series at one game a piece and a 9-8 victory over Boston.

Game 3: Tampa over powers the Red Sox with two 3-run home runs hit over the Green Monster by B.J. Upton and Rocco Baldelli. The only run for the ‘Sox came from a seventh-inning sac fly from Jacoby Ellsbury. Boston finds themselves down two games to one in the ALCS after a 9-1 pounding.

Game 4: The Rays continued their hot streak in Game 4 blasting 14 hits including home runs from Pena, Longoria, and Aybar handing the Red Sox a 13-4 loss and a 3-1 deficit in the ALCS.

Game 5: The wheels fall off for the Rays. After leading game 5 7-0, the Tampa Bay Rays gave up 4 runs in the 7th, 3 in the eight, and a game-winning line drive by J.D. Drew scoring Kevin Youkilis. The biggest comeback in MLB playoff history since 1929 proved to be nothing short of miraculous.

Game 6: Kevin Youkilis and Jason Varitek hit solo home runs as the defense only allowed two runs allowing the Red Sox to beat the Rays 4-2 and force Game 7 after trailing in the series 3-1.

The bottom of the 7th inning may have been the turning point for Rays. Willy Aybar slapped a solo home run against John Lester deep to into the seats above the left field wall giving the Rays a 3-1 lead. Aybars home run was the 16th home run hit by the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALCS and it set a ALCS post season record of 26 combined home runs for the series.

Once again Boston faced a 3-1 deficit in the 7th inning. The doors seemed to open in the top of the eight when right fielder J.D. Drew came to the plate with bases juiced. In his second Major League appearance Rays left-hander David Price caught Drew looking on an “Priceless” outside fastball to end the inning.

David Price continued to be “Priceless” in the 9th striking out Mark Kotsay and Jason Varitek with the same pitch that claimed J.D. Drew back in the eight.

The Tampa Bay Rays are your American League Champions defeating the Red Sox 3-1 and advancing to the World Series for the first time in franchise history and will face off with the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2008 World Series.

The All Time Best VORP for Second Basemen Since 1954

A reader of mine recently asked me if Boston Red Sox 2B Dustin Pedroia had the best VORP at his position this year (2008) than any other player before him. But before I go further, some of you might be asking, “What in the world is VORP anyway?”. According to Baseball Prospectus, VORP stands for Value Over Replacement Player, which is broken down as the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances.

VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player’s defense. Researching this was a bit tedious, but well worth it! The Baseball Prospectus database has gone as far back as 1954 in calculating VORP. What I found out is that Pedroia, depsite all of the MVP talk he’s getting, just beat out the Phillies’ Chase Utley by a tenth of a point in VORP this year, 63.3 to 63.2. In comparing him to the all time leaders at second base, he didn’t even finish in the top 20.

The top player at this position with a VORP of 98.8, which is 35.5 points higher than Pedroia, was Chuck Knoblauch in 1996. For the remainder of the top 20, please see the chart below. So much for Pedroia having the best VORP ever by a second baseman!

In fact, Utley, for all of his offensive hype, just made the top 20 with his stellar performance in 2007 with a score of 68.8 (the same score Ryne Sandberg had in 1984)! Between Pedroia’s 63.3 and the top 20 list provided below there are 10 other higher scores from 4 players who are already in the top 20 and 4 others who are not (Bobby Grich, Willie Randolph, Mark Loretta and Jose Vidro).

Therefore, the bottom line is that Pedroia’s 2008 VORP of 63.3 ranks only 31st on the all time VORP list for second basemen. I hope that helps give people some perspective, but don’t let this conclusion fool you. Pedroia still had a very good year, but it just goes to show you that you shouldn’t jump to conclusions about how great of a year a player either is having or has had without digging a little deeper into past performances.

Year    Player                           VORP
1996    Chuck Knoblauch 98.8
1976    Joe  Morgan 94.2
2000    Jeff  Kent                      92.7
1975    Joe  Morgan                  91.6
1996    Roberto  Alomar 85.1
2001    Roberto  Alomar           81.6
1998    Craig  Biggio                80.5
1997    Craig  Biggio                79.8
1974    Joe  Morgan                  79.8
1999    Roberto  Alomar           77.9
2002    Jeff  Kent 77.7
1973    Joe  Morgan                  77.7
2001    Bret  Boone 77.4
2000    Edgardo  Alfonzo 76.9
1974    Rod  Carew 76.5
1975    Rod  Carew                   75.4
1993    Roberto  Alomar           75.2
1972    Joe  Morgan                  74.1
1977    Joe  Morgan                  71.8
1995    Chuck  Knoblauch        71.6
1991    Julio  Franco 70.1
2007    Chase  Utley 68.8
1984    Ryne  Sandberg 68.8

Peter Schiller also writes for BaseballReflections.com, which he started in October 2007. To see more of his work over the past year, please follow the link

provided. He also writes for Seamheads.com once a month.

8 Reasons Why The Red Sox Are Failing In The ALCS

The Boston Red Sox have returned from 3-1 deficits in the playoffs 3 times in their team history. Now down 3-1 to the Rays in 2008, the Red Sox will have to make a few major adjustments to have any hopes of advancing once again. Here are 8 reasons why the Red Sox are failing in this year’s ALCS.

1. The Red Sox have surrendered 31 runs in the last 3 postseason games. Blame the pitching if you must, but the other areas of the defense have also tipped the bucket this postseason.

2. They can’t pitch! Pitching has allowed 14 combined runs in the first three innings of the last three games. Enough said.

3. The only thing the Boston bullpen can produce is runs for the Rays. Time after time the Rays are simply crushing the ball no matter who Boston sends to the mound.

4. Oh no! Papi left his bat at home. Big Papi is 1-14 against the Rays, and in the process he has left 10 runners on base. You can’t blame David Ortiz for everything, or can you? When his bat does not hit statistics show that the Red Sox will struggle to win games. The ignition for the Sox offense is “spuddering”.

5. Everyone is focused on Ortiz not crushing the ball. Baseball is a game of failure and instead of dwelling on one individual player the Boston Red Sox need to step up and deliver when David is not. Jimmy Rollins of the Phillies lead his team from the top of the lineup all season until the playoffs. As soon as Rollins began to slump Shane Victorino picked up the slack leading the league in postseason RBI’s. In other words, Boston needs a Victorino, someone who can ignite the offense.

6. Manny Ramirez is playing for the Dodgers! Ouch! Sorry Red Sox fans, I just had to bring it up. Mlb.com is reporting that since the “Manny Trade” Ortiz batted .262 in 49 games, with nine homers and 42 RBIs. These stats are not particularly terrible, but they are way under the bar in respect to Big Papi standards. In 2007, Ortiz finished the year with 117 RBI and a batting average of .332-incomparable to his average of .264 in 2008.

7. Last year’s World Series MVP, third baseman Mike Lowell is on the bench with a hip operation pending. In the regular season Lowell had 419 plate appearances, 17 home runs and 73 RBIs. His presence is definitely missed in the 6th spot.

8. Wakefield’s knuckleball is not working! Heading into game 4, Wakefield had an ERA of 5.87. When a knuckleball pitcher’s most deadly weapon is not deadly anymore, one side of the score board will rise just like gas prices do when a thunderstorm hits Florida.

The Rays have proven themselves fearless with nothing to lose throughout the entire playoffs, hitting the ball hard in every at bat. However, these failures mentioned above do not necessarily mean Boston can not adjust. As history tells us, THEY”VE BEEN HERE BEFORE!! Rallying from a 3-1 deficit seems to be always in reach especially for the Boston Red Sox. Anything is possible in October and I think Boston fans will be glad to see Daisuke Matsuzaka on the mound as we head into game 5 Thursday night.

Chicago Teams Not Great in ‘08

The Tampa Bay Rays and the Los Angeles Dodgers are both a single win away from advancing in October baseball.  The Rays sunk the White Sox last night, in game 2 of the ALDS, securing a two game advantage in the series. The Dodgers also have a perfect record, taking the first two games of the NLDS from the Cubs at the infamous Wrigley. The Dodgers have been “rocking out” at the plate outscoring the Cubs 17-5 after only two games.

Why have the Dodgers been so hot in post season play? You might just want to thank the Dodgers entire organization for acquiring Manny Ramirez. Experience combined with his “larger than life bat” can pose a threat to any team’s defense. Ramirez has gone deep twice against the Cubs, leading the offensive attack for LA, while in the pitching department, Chad Billingsley and the entire Dodgers pitching staff has been nothing short of stellar. As we all know, pitching and defense will win games, and with offensive factors like Manny Ramirez streamlining the next fastball out of the park - you can become the team to beat!

Now to the Rays. If you are familiar with word analogies, Akinori Iwamura has been like salt is to popcorn for Tampa Bay - absolutely essential! Friday came with a great start for the White Sox and optimism floated throughout the entire dugout until Akinori smashed a go-ahead two run shot that eventually led his team to a 6-2 victory over Chicago. Talk about a tough break! The momentum that the Sox possessed coming into the playoffs has now dwindled to merely a trickling stream.

Why not so great in ‘08? According to ESPN, hopes were set so high for the Cubs, that the city of Chicago had to limit alcohol sales around Wrigley field during the event of a clinching game. Fans meant business! Celebrations of the Cubs clinching and advancing have been prepared by millions, and now after 100 years those fans may need to live their lives one more year without a championship. Three straight wins and an offensive explosion from the Cubs will now be needed in order to even think about lifting the curse.

The White Sox also had great expectations from the city of Chicago, but the Sox have not been able to execute at the plate. Friday night came and left 12 runners stranded on base and not a single hit was recorded for extra bases. The team will now head home to Cellular Field for game 3 and 4 hoping for a miracle. Unfortunately, for the Chicago clubs, only four teams ever have come back from a 2 game deficit to win a division series.

Who Will Wake Up Before September Ends?

[RBI Magazine] - The month of September has proven itself as one of the most crucial times during the 8 month Major League baseball season. Playoff contenders filter their way to the top of their respected divisions and try to preserve or advance into the top position. September 2008 has all ready begun to show which teams have the power to be a playoff contender.

The National League East has no other teams but the Phillies and Mets duking it out once again game-by-game. The Mets are showing resiliency as the Phillies offense begins to pick up. Rollins, Utley and Howard have improved their swing and ended their hitting slumps while the Mets continue to stay hot. New York has won 20 out of the last 27 games and 6 of the last 8 games. However, their are two sides to every story. Injuries are still holding the Mets talented reserves hostage as the DL still plagues Billy Wagner. Surprisingly, the Mets are 21-8 with Wagner on the DL.

Delgado has been the man so far for Mets in late August and now September hitting the ball in key situations and forcing runs across the plate. As long as the Mets do not have an internal collapse like last year’s team, the Phillies will need a huge spark to blow past the Mets and preserve 1st place in the NL East.

Expectations have never soared higher in the American League East. The underdog Tampa Bay Rays have dominated the American League for the last few months in search of their first AL East Championship. To accomplish such a great feat, the Rays will have to knock out the “Green Monster” at Fenway Park this week, as they travel to Boston for a critical 3 game series against the Sox. You can see game three on Wednesday night baseball (ESPN) with Josh Beckett taking on Andy Sonnanstine at 10 p.m. EST. The Red Sox trail the Rays by 1.5 games as they will try to force a momentum swing in the American League East.

Out in the AL West the Angels have stolen any possibility for any competition. As of right now this second, the Angels may be the best team in the American League, leading the second place Texas Rangers by 17 games. With 19 games remaining, the Rangers will need an angel from above to come within even 5 games of the guys in sparkling pajamas.  J.P from Angels In The Outfield must be happy as it looks like “It could happen” for the Angels in September and October of 2008.

Now let’s talk snakes. The Arizona Diamondbacks bring a trio of venomous pitchers to the mound including Brandon Webb, Dan Heran, and “The Big Unit” Randy Johnson. A solid rotation like this will be tough to beat as the month of September comes to a close. The D’Backs recently added Adam Dunn to the now stellar offense. Dunn has 36 home runs and 89 RBIs so far in 2008. The D’Backs trail the LA Dodgers by 1.5 games in the NL West. Will they be able to slither into 1st place by the time September comes to a close? RBI Magazine thinks so. Watch for Dunn and the venomous trio to be a baseball power house come October.

As we all know history will always stand in the way of the Cubs and their chances at a World Series run. This year however, could be different. Mark DeRosa is having a career year contributing 20 jacks and 83 RBI so far this season. Chicago leads the Brewers by 4.0 in the NL Central. The Brewers, with 20 games remaining, need to find a spark or hope that history will repeat itself for the Cubs.

So what team will wake up before September ends and take over top spot in their respected division?

RBI Magazine wants to hear your predictions!!

Pythagorean Win/Loss, Luck, and Why the Rays Will Lose the Division

Like most baseball fans this year, I’m captivated by the surge of the Tampa Bay Rays. How can you not be? Coming into this season their highest win total in history was 70 games. They’ve already surpassed that and we haven’t even finished August yet! It’s become pretty evident that Joe Madden’s young team filled with quality starting pitching and exceptional young bats is here to stay.

But will they win the division? Will they make the playoffs? No and yes respectively, and here’s why.

As of this writing (August 20), the Rays are 77-48, 4.5 games ahead of the Red Sox, and appear to be cruising to a division title with a little less than a quarter of the season remaining. Both have comparable remaining schedules - each team’s remaining opponents have the exact same average record of 66-58. So what would lead one to conclude that the Rays are going to choke lose the division lead? A little known statistic to casual baseball fans called Pythagorean Win/Loss.

Coined by Bill James, Pythagorean Win/Loss (also pythW-L) is an estimate of what a teams win/loss record should be based upon the runs they’ve scored and the runs they’ve given up. If a team has a better win/loss record than their pythW-L, they’ve likely been getting “lucky” and are likely to become “less lucky” for the remainder of the season in order for both records to match up accordingly. At the end of a season, Pythagorean Win/Loss is surprisingly accurate (usually within a few games) so in most instances a team winning more games than their pythW-L is likely to incur a losing streak to regress them back to the mean.

Unfortunately the Rays seem to be one of those “lucky” teams. Their pythW-L is 70-55, 7 games worse than their true record (this is often referred to as a luck of +7). The Red Sox, on the other hand, have a pythW-L of 75-51, 2 games better than their record of 73-53 (luck of -2). That 9 game swing would flip the Rays 4.5 game lead around to the Sox, putting them firmly in control. Couple that with untimely injuries to Carl Crawford, Troy Percival, and Evan Longoria, and it seems likely that the Rays magical season could end without a division crown.

The good news? Their pythW-L still puts them 3 games ahead of the Twins for the wild card, so there’s a good chance we’ll see the Rays in the playoffs regardless. And so what may appear to be a collapse in the eyes of many will simply be two very good teams playing exactly as they should be.

Of course, the pythW-L isn’t a perfect predictor of the future and has definitely been wrong from time to time, even over the course of a full 162 game schedule. For instance, last years Diamondbacks finished a whopping 11 games better than their pythW-L. The 2006 Indians were a -12 in the luck category, finishing with a record of 78-84 despite a pythW-L of 90-72. Talk about bad luck!

One thing IS for sure: numbers and predictions are fun, but they’re no replacement for real thing. This stretch run in the AL East should be fun to watch!

 

About the Author

Adam McFarland is the founder and co-owner of TastefullyDriven.com - a contemporary e-commerce site that sells premium home gym equipment, shaving & personal care products, home care products, nutritional supplements, and other products to help improve your everyday life. He also writes for the Tastefully Driven Lifestyle Blog, a blog that covers sports, politics, technology, health & fitness, personal improvement, and more.