We will do this by analyzing the 2008 year of Red Sox DH David Ortiz compared to his previous two years as a member of the Boston Red Sox to see if his skills are diminishing due to his age (33) and body type (large). It has been widely reported this off season, that Ortiz is quite possibly on the decline.

Personally, I think it has more to do with his ailing knees that were operated on prior to the 2008 season, but too close to spring training for them to heal properly. Then add to that, the freakish wrist sheath injury that limited him to 109 games. He shook it off for a while upon his return from the DL, but he started feeling or hearing a (pain-free) clicking in the injured wrist down the stretch run. Tell me what team-oriented player wouldn’t be affected by that in a playoff race and especially when he’s the teams 3 or 4 hitter.

I choose the two years prior to 2008 due to their close proximity to last year and their significance, they were considered his best seasons as a pro. In 2006, Ortiz hit a career high in HRs (54, a new Red Sox record), ISO (.349) and his third best RBI total (137). In 2007, he scored his second highest Runs total (116), his best BA and OBP (.332 and .445).

To do this, we will look at his G, R, HR, RBI, BA, OBP, SLG, ISO, BB Rate, SO Rate, FB%, GB%, LINEDR%, POPUP%, BABIP and HRR.

The new metrics in this post are BABIP, which is batting average on balls in play; LINEDR% is the rate of line drives hit; FB% % is the rate of fly balls hit; ISO, which is his isolated power numbers (in terms of extra bases per AB); BB Rate is the percentage of plate appearances that result in a walk; SO Rate is the percentage of plate appearances that result in a strike out; GB% is the rate of ground balls; POPUP% is the rate of pop ups hit and HRR is the rate of HR hit per AB.

By the Numbers

First, let’s take a look at the similarities between these three years. His strike out rate (SO Rate) and HR rate (HRR) matched that of his 2007 numbers (his 2006 HRR was 8%, 3% higher than 2007 and 2008), his ground ball percentage (GB%) and line drive percentage (LINEDR%) matched that of his 2006 season (his GB% was 1% lower than 2007) and his BABIP was only .001 lower than his 2006 season (.273 to .274).

Second, let’s take a look at the differences between these three years. We will avoid the following stats (R, HR and RBI) because they were directly affected by only playing in 109 games as opposed to 149 and 151 in the other two years. His BA of .264 was the lowest of his career when playing in 100+ games (he hit .234 with the Twins in 2001 while playing in 89 games). His OBP was .369 was tied for the lowest it’s been as a member of the Red Sox since 2003 (it had been .380 or as high as .445 between 2004-2007).

His 2008 slugging (SLG) of .507 and .243 isolated power (ISO) were both the lowest marks as a member of the Red Sox. His walk rate (BB Rate) was down 3% in 2008, but it was still higher than it was in his first two seasons in Boston (both were at 11%). His flyball rate (FB%) was down 5% depending on which site you use (Baseball Prospectus or FanGraphs) so we will call this one even as FanGraphs does. His pop up percentage was up 4% from 2008 to 2006 and 7% from 2008 to 2007.

My analysis

Given this analysis, I truly believe that Ortiz was more affected by his ailing knees which were still bothering him after off season surgery. This ailment alone caused him not to be able to drive the ball as easily as he has in the past. The health of the lower body of a power hitter like Ortiz if pivotal to his power numbers and Ortiz was learning how to be productive in spite of not having his full weight behind his swings.

Then came the freakish torn tendon sheath in his left wrist. Now remember, for lefties, their left wrist is the one that is in back and having problems with that back wrist would impede Ortiz to drive the ball as well. Players don’t usually let go with their hand that’s in back until after contact. I’m not sure if this had any other impact, but he has also had past concerns with his shoulder, too. Therefore, nothing else really strikes me as being a concern that David Ortiz is in decline, but only time will tell for sure.

My 2009 David Ortiz Projection

If healthy (knees, wrist and shoulder), I expect to see Ortiz put up the following numbers:

G: 150 R: 101 HR: 31 RBI: 122  BA:  .280  OBP: .380  SLG: .615  ISO: .290  BABIP: .290

Peter Schiller also writes monthly for Seamheads.com and almost daily at his personal baseball blog, Baseball Reflections.com. Please follow the links to read his work at these two other sites.

The 2009 Mariners Slogan “A New Day, A New Would” could not be more accurate. New General Manager Jack Zduriencik and assistants Tony Blengino and Tom McNamara have taken an entirely different approach to building this roster. They hired baseball stat expert Tom Tango to help with a Sabermetrics department, which was basically enough to show me that these guys might know what they are doing. In an offseason with a pretty bad free agent class, having their hands tied by the upper management with regards to money, and a huge sum of payroll tied up in bad deals by given out by the former regime, the new group did a decent job amassing a solid amount of talent for relatively no cost. Will this team compete? That’s an extreme longshot. Will this year be a great step forward for an organization that took massive steps backwards under the former management? That is all but certain.

Key additions:
Ken Griffey Jr. (DH/OF), Franklin Gutierrez (OF), Endy Chavez (OF), Russell Branyan (1B), Mike Carp (1B), Chris Shelton (1B), Ronny Cedeno (IF), Garrett Olson (SP/RP), Tyler Walker (RP), David Aardsma (RP), and a whole bunch of live bullpen arms via waivers, the Rule 5, and minor transactions.

Key Subtractions:
Raul Ibanez (OF), Jeremy Reed (OF), Willie Bloomquist (UT), Miguel Cairo (UT), J.J. Putz (RP), Sean Green (RP), R.A. Dickey (SP/RP), Jake Woods (RP), Eric O’Flaherty (RP), Jared Wells (RP)

A look at the lineup:
The Mariners’ offseason consisted of quite the purge, and a lot of changes and experimentation will definitely take place in 2009. Additions Franklin Gutierrez, Endy Chavez, and Ken Griffey Jr. will likely see a good amount of playing time, and prospects Wladimir Balentein and Jeff Clement should get a long look to see where they both stand after awful 2008 campaigns. Ichiro and Beltre’s positions are safe, but after that, every position could realistically be up for grabs in 2009, making this season pretty intriguing regardless of the team’s record.

Catcher: While the regular catcher should be Jeff Clement, a terrible contract handed out to Kenji Johjima will probably keep Clement on the bench or in Tacoma more often than not. Johjima had a horrendous 2008 (.227/.277/.332), and should rebound to produce decent numbers from the 2-spot. This is not, however, justification to keep Clement out of the starting spot. Clement struggled in his time in the majors, but with regular playing time in AAA Tacoma he was able to destroy the ball to a tune of .335/.455/.676 with 14 homers in just 173 AB. On a more competitive team, keeping Johjima behind the plate more often might make sense, as he will probably be more consistent and better defensively. But he should have been allowed to do that for another team, instead of blocking Clement. Now aging, with a huge contract, coming off a terrible year, there is almost no chance Johjima can be moved in a trade without serious money or talent going with him.

First Base:
Russell Branyan is penciled in as the starter at this point, but a suitable platoon partner would be nice. If Chris Shelton can show that he can still hit the ball and play decent defense to warrant giving him a 40-man roster spot, he could end up being that partner. The Mariners do have a couple of players on the 40-man that are expendable, and this may become a reality. Branyan is a true power source (12 homers in 132 AB) and should enjoy hitting in the left-hand-favoring Safeco Field. The problem, however, is the complete inability to hit lefthanders (.204/.284/.446. in his career). Shelton fairs decently against lefties for his career (.283/.346/.492) and the two could provide a surprise above average first baseman if used correctly.

Second Base:
Jose Lopez has never lived up to the billing he received when signed by Seattle in 2000. Some view this as Lopez being a failed prospect, but honestly that isn’t really true. He’s been an above average second baseman since he got to the Bigs, and while somewhat inconsistent throughout the year, puts up pretty good numbers when it comes down to it (.271/.303/.398 career). Even though advanced defensive metrics rate him as slightly above average, most scouts agree he is much more of a defensive liability than it seems. Rumors swirling this spring include that Lopez has put on some extra pounds in order to hit for more power and some fear this will cause his already slow first step to get even slower. Should Adrian Beltre be moved this season, logic says Lopez slides over to 3B and sticks there. Ronny Cedeno was brought in as a backup, and will most definitely put pressure on both Lopez and shortstop Yunieksy Betancourt.

Third Base:
Perhaps the most underrated, underappreciated player in all of baseball, Adrian Beltre will continue to play hard and play extremely well day in and day out for the Mariners. His contract is pretty much the only good one Bavasi gave in his tenure and Beltre is vastly underpaid by today’s market standards. He easily has one of, if not the best, third base glove in baseball. All of the advanced defensive metrics, as well as, scouting reports back it up. He’s not going to hit 48 homers like he did in 2003, but he’s still incredibly skilled with the bat. Last year’s .266 batting average was definitely a fluke and could have easily been closer to .300 had his below average .279 BABIP not deflated it. Expect another great season out of Beltre, and probably expect him to get shipped off for a nice package of prospects to a team in need at the deadline. Beltre is one Mariner of the Bavasi Era that I will truly miss when he’s gone.

Short Stop:
Yuniesky Betancourt was practically handed the role of Seattle Mariners shortstop when he stepped off the boat from Cuba—and he probably deserved it. He was a below average hitter, but could hack it for the position, and was a superb defender. He was highly regarded as the best defensive player in baseball for a year or so. Then something changed, Yuni got bigger, and perhaps lazier, and became one of the worst defensive players in the league. He won’t hit much, so his value relies on his ability to pick it, and that has all but gone over the last two years. Ronny Cedeno may end up being the Mariners everyday shortstop if this trend continues in 2009. That would result in Betancourt being shipped off to a team who thinks he can still field or just delegated to the bench as a pinch runner.

Left Field:
Probably the most interesting story of the Mariners offseason was: how do we fill the void that Raul Ibanez left? Well the Mariners’ front office showed that they “get it” when they claimed Ibanez wasn’t all that valuable, due to his defensive inadequacies, and were able to get defensive extraordinaire Endy Chavez as a player thrown into the JJ Putz trade. They also appear to have given up on Wladimir Balentein, who showed major holes at the plate all year long in 2008. Endy was penciled in as the starter in left field, but now with the signing of Ken Griffey Jr., things get a little more complicated. Griffey Jr. should be this team’s designated hitter. However, baseball politics, notoriety, and old-school concepts may keep Endy on the bench as a reserve. It’s true, Chavez’s bat is awful, but looking at what he brings defensively, he’s probably going to be a more valuable left fielder than Griffey. Griffey is one of the worst defensive players in baseball over the last few years, and at 39, I doubt coming back to Seattle will rejuvenate him that much. It seems like the plan is to play Griffey out there until they can’t anymore, and then give Chavez the spot. There is still a large contingent of people who don’t understand defensive value and think Griffey should be in the field on a daily basis. These people are wrong.

Center Field:
The biggest name for the Mariners brought through the JJ Putz trade is definitely Franklin Gutierrez. Even though he struggled with the bat in his first full season in the Bigs (.248/.307 /.383), Gutierrez is a defensive wizard with an amazing arm. Gutierrez is only 25 and has a lot of time to improve his bat work, and could end up becoming a plus bat and a real steal for the Mariners in that trade. Zduriencik decided to go with quantity over quality in the Putz trade, probably a smart move for a team that needs a complete overhaul, and he still ended up getting a nice catch in Gutierrez.

Right Field:
Ichiro. Read what you will, believe what you want, all the papers in Seattle seem to think Ichiro is the real reason this team collapsed. From Carlos Silva, to JJ Putz, and even a little poke from Adrian Beltre, Ichiro has been labeled selfish, and not a “team guy”. But, when it comes down to it, he has been one of the top 5 most valuable outfielders in the major leagues since 2005. He may not dive for the ball, steal every time he’s on base, or hit homers, but what he does is help win games, and that’s what he’s being paid to do. I am 100% for Ichiro in whatever he does, and I truly believe, had he done the same exact thing on a winning team, he’d be considered a team leader, unselfish, and a guy who would do anything to win. Superstars get blamed when their team loses, that’s just how it goes, and Ichiro is truly a superstar.

Designated Hitter:
This spot could be up for grabs depending on how the “Griffey in left field” situation shakes itself out. Best case scenario would be that Griffey shares time here with Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentein, while Clement also catches and Balentein is used as a reserve. If Griffey plays the field, the spot is open to both of the youngsters, and we’ll probably see more of Clement at DH than behind the plate. Any way you look at it, this position has the potential to be a real revolving door situation, and a good chance to showcase the Griffey/Mariners Reunion Tour or get a look at what the two youngsters really bring to the plate.

A look at the pitching:

The Mariners starters will look very similar to 2008, with the only difference being Brandon Morrow taking Miguel Batista’s spot in the rotation. Should the top three (Hernandez, Bedard, and Morrow) stay healthy and pitch up to their potential; this could be a very dangerous staff. The two incredibly overpaid and incredibly average four and five guys, Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva, will actually be a suitable back end of a rotation regardless of how expensive they are. This staff could actually end up being quite the strength for the 2009 Mariners, and with a more defensive minded approach this season, could really be a surprise that allows this M’s team to compete.

Starters:
Felix may have taken a slight step back last year as far as peripherals go. His swinging strike rate went down, as did his ground ball rate, and he walked more batters than ever before. This alarms some, but keep in mind Felix is only going to turn 23 in April. That’s younger than each of the following: Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Chad Billingsly, David Price, Edinson Volquez, Joba Chamberlain, Fransisco Liriano… well you get the idea. He’s already got more innings and more stirkeouts under his belt than all of those names as well. Felix has some of the best stuff on the planet; he can throw the ball in the mid to high 90s with authority, and backs it up with a superb curveball and perhaps an even better changeup. The Mariners preached fastball first to the youngster for the last couple years, and much work has been done at blogs USSMariner.com and LookoutLanding.com to show how this was really dumb. If Felix mixes his pitches, he is truly one of the most talented hurlers on the planet and should be for a long time. Hopefully that long time is spent in Mariners’ blue and teal.

If Eric Bedard stays healthy, he’s probably a top 10 pitcher in the majors… but, that’s a big “if”. Missing a load of starts last season, and recovering from shoulder surgery this offseason, Bedard’s status is a giant question mark. If he can stay healthy through the whole year, he should be one of the more valuable pitchers in baseball, and will probably be traded in a deal much like Rich Harden’s trade from last season.

Brandon Morrow’s development as a starter is one of the most important stories for the 2009 Mariners. He’s already shown that he can be an incredibly effective reliever, but more value would come from him taking his skill set to a starting role. He’s armed with one of the best fastballs in baseball, which tops at 100 and is usually in the 97-99 range. Morrow’s two keys this year will be developing his curve and changeup and keeping the ball in the zone consistently. If he can do that, he could be a very great pitcher for this ballclub.

Silva and Washburn are decent options for the four and five slots, but the problem is that they are being paid as if they are aces. Washburn is a candidate to be moved during the season if he pitches well, and should have been moved last year. There is not a single team that would take on Silva’s full salary, and he will likely (and unfortunately) be a Mariner until the end of his contract. Both should hover around league average or slightly below for the season, and both will be smiling on their way to the bank.

Ryan Rowland-Smith may also get a shot to crack the rotation, and in his brief stint in that role last year, answered the call very well and did exactly what was expected of him. If the team can move Washburn early, Bedard gets hurt, Silva has one too many hamburgers and misses a start due to acid indigestion, Rowland-Smith is the Mariners next and best option. I’m hoping to see as much of RRS in the rotation as possible.

Other options for the rotation include Garrett Olson and Ryan Feierabend. Olson might need a little more time in the minors or the bullpen, and Feierabend may have to get surgery that will put an early end to his 2009 season.

Bullpen:
GM Jack Zduriencik should lecture for the class “How to Build a Cheap Effective Bullpen 101”. By searching the league for guys with great stuff, spotty command, or injury problems with the ability to pass them up and down on the Tacoma Shuttle easily, he has given new Manager Don Wakamatsu a ton of options to use in the later innings. After the Putz deal, there was a lot of talk about the weakness and uncertainty of the bullpen, however, I don’t really believe that will be the case. Former closer Tyler Walker and flamethrower David Aardsma will probably battle Mark Lowe and Miguel Batista for the closer spot. The bullpen is young and can throw hard, but is slightly inconsistent. The Rays showed us that this can work wonders last year, and other teams have done it in the past. He’s also given Wakamatsu a number of talented lefties who all could end up being decent LOOGY’s for this team. That role is probably Cesar Jiminez’s spot to lose, but he will be threatened by Jose Lugo, Jason Vargas, and Justin Thomas. I give kudos to Zduriencik for not wasting any money on his relief corps and instead building a staff with a lot of unrecognizable names that could still manage to be an extremely solid group.

Outlook:
The 2009 Mariners should have one thing in mind: Progression. This organization isn’t going to wake up and be good overnight. By amassing talent for a couple years through trades, free agency, and the draft and spending “smart” money, this team could easily become “Boston of the West Coast”. If the trend and concepts of the current leadership of the team stick, and Presidents Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong stay away from the baseball side of operations, this organization could be built back up to be a winner for a long time.

Prediction:
As for 2009, I can’t see the Mariners winning more than 80 games (77-85), but this year is just part of the picture for this organization. Here’s to a successful 2009, and here’s to “A New Day, A New Way” in Seattle.