The Braves pitching staff hasn’t quite been the same since the Greg Maddux-John Smoltz-Tom Glavine era ended following the 2002 season, but you could make a case that the 2008 campaign was the lowest of the lows. The team entered opening day with three potential starters (John Smoltz, Mike Hampton, and Chuck James) already on the IR and all three missed most of the season. Tim Hudson and Tom Glavine were expected to carry the front end of the rotation, but neither could stay healthy. Hudson made 22 starts before requiring Tommy John surgery on his elbow, which is expected to keep him out until at least the middle of the 2009 season. Meanwhile, Glavine struggled to just 13 starts all year.

Picking up the slack was a long list of new faces, which included the likes of Jair Jurrjens, Jorge Campillo, Jo-Jo Reyes, Charlie Morton, James Parr, and Jeff Bennett. All six will be back in 2009, but manager Bobby Cox won’t need to rely on them quite as much thanks to the off-season acquisitions of Javier Vazquez, Derek Lowe, and Kenshin Kawakami.

Here is a look at what should be a stellar rotation for Atlanta this season:

1. Javier Vazquez – Most scouting reports would call Vazquez a career underachiever. The 32-year old righty was projected early in his career to be one of the league’s best pitchers for a long time, but he hasn’t quite lived up to the hype. Nonetheless, Vazquez has been extremely productive over the last decade and, at times, has shown flashes of greatness. 2009 has all the makings of a breakout season for several reasons. First, he will be making the move the National League, which means 2-3 at-bats for the opposing pitcher rather than a designated hitter. Another reason is the switch from long ball-friendly U.S. Cellular Field to a more pitcher-friendly Turner Field.

Last season in Chicago, Vazquez put up what might seem like a poor 12-16 record and 4.67 ERA, especially when you consider he went 15-8 with a 3.74 ERA in 2007. Looking a bit deeper into the numbers, it’s not hard to find a few reasons for the large dip. His BABIP made a large jump from .297 in 2007 to .328 in 2008 and his LOB% dropped from 74.5% to 68.3%. Add to the equation a hike in line drives from 16.8% to 20.1% and a walk rate well higher than his career average and you have some clarity. Fortunately for the Braves, BABIP and LOB% are considered uncontrollable by the pitcher and Vazquez should have a better defense behind him, which means his 2008 “struggles” can certainly be overcome. It should also be noted that Vazquez is a strikeout machine, sitting down just under 8 per nine innings over his career.

2. Derek Lowe – At the age of 35, Lowe is by no means a long term solution for the Braves, but the righty has proven he is a reliable top of the rotation starter over the last few years. The former Dodger has pitched at least 182 innings every season since 2001, which is an almost unheard of resume in terms of reliability. In that 8 year span, his FIP has reach no higher than 4.26 (2003 and 2004) and has been as low as 3.26 (2008). Lowe is coming off his best season as a pro since he went 21-8 with a 2.58 ERA for Boston in 2002.

Lowe isn’t going to strike out as many as Vazquez will, but he should be just as good, if not better. It would be unreasonable to expect Lowe to put up numbers as good as he did last year (14-11 record, 3.24 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), but he shouldn’t be any less effective. Compared to his career averages, his BABIP and LOB% were only slightly in his favor in 2008. His impressive 1.92 walk rate last season was the best of his career, but the odds are that his 2009 rate will be closer to his 2.53 career mark. Regardless, Lowe should be a reliable and effective top of the rotation pitcher for the Braves.

3. Jair Jurrjens – Jurrjens was a new face in Atlanta last season after being acquired from Detroit as part of the Edgar Renteria deal, but his effectiveness at the major league level wasn’t a total shocker. The 23-year old righty made a team-high 31 starts and went 13-10 with a 3.68 ERA in his first full season in the big leagues. Before the trade, Jurrjens tore through the minor leagues from 2003-2007, which led to a promotion late in the 2007 season. He would manage just 30-plus innings of experience in the American League before the Braves acquired him the following October.

Most of what you saw from Jurrjens last year is much of what you will see throughout his career. He isn’t going to put up the strikeouts like Vazquez has, but he will do his job. One full season in the majors makes it tough to guess what he will do in 2009, but a majority of the projection systems have him pretty consistent with what he did a year ago.

4. Kenshin Kawakami – The Braves won the bidding war for this year’s top incoming Japanese player and they hope Kawakami can hold down the fourth rotation spot. Kawakami is a right-handed pitcher and, at the age of 33, is by no means your conventional rookie. He already has 11 years of experience as a starting pitcher for Japan’s Chunichi Dragons, where he put up a winning record in 8 of those seasons.

There are no advanced numbers available for Kawakami, but it is pretty easy to tell that he is more than capable of pitching effectively in the majors. He is coming off what might have been his best professional season at 9-5 with a 2.30 ERA. Over the past 8 seasons, his worst ERA was 3.74 and was below 3.00 three times. His strikeout ability in Japan compares to that of Vazquez in the majors. Both average right around a strikeout an inning, but only time will tell if Kawakami can translate that to the majors.

5. This is the only spot still up for grabs. The candidates include:

-Jorge Campillo – Where is the love for this guy? Most “experts” seem to be writing him off for the spot despite a 2008 campaign that saw him post an 8-7 record and 3.91 ERA in 25 starts. Up until last season, the 30-year old had spent a majority of his pitching career in the Mariners’ minor league system, but did make a few appearances in the majors, where he was less than spectacular. Campillo did impress at the AAA level in 2007, the season before Atlanta acquired him, putting up a 9-6 record and 3.07 ERA in 24 appearances (22 starts). That is back-to-back impressive seasons for Campillo (even if one was in the minors) and he should be the favorite to round out the rotation.

- Jo-Jo Reyes – Reyes seems to be the top competition to Campillo for the final spot in the rotation. The 24-year old has 32 career starts in 2 seasons under his belt, but is just 5-13 with a 5.94 ERA in that time. His career 5.60 FIP shows that the struggles are no fluke, while his .312 BABIP and 67.0 LOB% have remained relatively steady since his 2007 debut. A major reason for Reyes’ struggles seems to be strikeouts. After averaging almost one an inning in 458 minor league innings, he has managed just 105 in 163.2 major league innings. Reyes is projected to be better than he’s been the past 2 seasons, but probably not good enough to warrant a spot over Campillo. A good Spring Training could change that.

- Charlie Morton – At 25 years old, Morton has youth on his side, but what he doesn’t have is the experience of his two main competitors or the major league success of Campillo. The righty made 15 starts for Atlanta in his first major league season last year, and struggled to a 4-8 record and 6.15 ERA. His .304 BABIP, 60.7 LOB%, and 5.14 FIP show that he didn’t exactly get all the breaks, but it’s hard to blame his troubles completely on luck. He will need to prove he can do better than that in Spring Training or he will start 2009 in Richmond.

- James Parr – Parr is a bit of a long shot for the opening day rotation, but that doesn’t mean he can’t get the job. The 22-year old made his major league debut last season and went 1-0 with a 4.84 ERA in 5 starts. Unless he dazzles the coaching staff in Spring Training, Parr, the youngest of the top four candidates, is likely to begin the year at Richmond.

- Tom Glavine – As of today, he is still a free agent, but we still need to address the possibility of him being signed. If he is, there is no doubt that he would immediately take the final spot in the rotation. Glavine is 42 years old and wouldn’t sign with Atlanta if he didn’t expect to start. The southpaw struggled with injuries last season after enjoying an almost inhuman spree of health since he entered the major leagues in 1987. Glavine was 2-4 with a 5.54 ERA in just 13 starts last season. His LOB% and BABIP were right at his career average and 6.02 FIP prove his ugly numbers were no fluke. Glavine is no longer the dominant pitcher he was for most of his career, but when healthy, he can contribute to the bottom of a rotation. If he accepts the Braves offer, he will be playing with an incentive-laden contract, which means he will have financial incentive to play well.

There are two other names worth mentioning. These guys won’t start the season in the rotation, but could be there by midseason.

- Tim Hudson – As mentioned, Hudson had Tommy John Surgery last season and will be out at least half of the 2009 season and could miss the entire year. It is never easy to tell if a pitcher will be able to recover from this type of surgery, but it has been done before and Hudson is giving it a shot. He will be 33 years old on opening day and, when healthy, is still a top pitcher in the major leagues. Before the injury, he was 11-7 with a 3.17 ERA in 2008 and has won at least 11 games every season of his major league career. If the Braves are in contention late in 2009 and Hudson can return to his old self, the Braves would go into September with the league’s deepest (and possible it’s best) rotation.

- Tommy Hanson – There is little doubt that mlb.com’s 24^th-ranked prospect will make his major league debut in 2009. The 22-year old righty has a 2.73 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 323 minor league innings since 2006 and his 373 strikeouts in that span show how dominant he can be. Hanson projects as the future ace of the Braves, but it might not be until 2010 that he is a fixture in the rotation. Expect him to make his major league debut in 2009, but unless the pitching staff is again plagued with injuries, he likely won’t see significant action for another year.

Sources: www.mlb.com; www.baseball-reference.com; www.fangraphs.com

Not sure what LOB%, BABIP, and FIP means? Check out The Hardball Times Glossary for an explanation.